Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Importance of the Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market For Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Background : All sustainable and hold-able rallies have one thing in common. The Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market is always positive and trending up to a high level. Simply look at the red bar graph below ... see when it was positive, and then look down at the NYA Index and you will see that these times all represented great upside rallies. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Semiconductor Stock Turn Higher / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
During the past three sessions, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX: SMH) has climbed above key near-term prior high and trendline resistance at 29.60/80, and has continued still higher towards a test of its February recovery rally peak at 30.24.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Ambac Bailout May Cause Credit Crisis to Worsen / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Axel_Merk
A consortium of banks is considering injecting $3 billion dollars into Ambac, the mono-line insurer that relies on its AAA rating to insure, amongst others, municipal bonds and CDOs ( collateralized debt obligations ). What appears as a rescue plan and may appease the markets short-term, may plant the seeds for disaster.
Mono-line insurers used to be in the business of insuring municipal bonds. For a small fee to the insurers, municipalities were able to attach a AAA rating to their bond offerings, significantly lowering their borrowing cost. The market was so attractive that a short-term market was created where long-term debt was packaged into “auction rate securities” (ARS). ARS are a kind of commercial paper attractive to, amongst others, money market funds and treasury departments of large corporations. Municipal bond funds are also large buyers of insured municipal debt.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Financial Stocks Gaining Upside Momentum / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF) is gaining some upside strength as it emerges from its 3-week sideways but base-link congestion area that projects a measured upside follow-through towards the 28.50 target zone. A climb above 27.50 should trigger upside acceleration. Only a decline that breaks 27.00 will begin to compromise the developing upside breakout.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Subprime Mortgage Scam Lands US Tax Payer $739 Billion Bailout Bill / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
The SEC probe of the securitization of subprime mortgages into collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), announced last summer, has yielded no official enforcement cases....SEC chief, Christopher Cox, along with other top-level administration officials, has cautioned against quick-fire regulatory or enforcement responses to the worsening credit crisis, noting that the market instead should be left to work it out.” Nicholas Rummel, “SEC Drift Said to Prevent Action on Credit Crunch”, Financial Week Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Utilities Sector Better Positioned to Weather Recession and Dividend Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Utilities
By: Roger_Conrad
Even in the best markets, dividend cuts are poison for income investors. Not only is your regular cash flow cut, but your principal typically takes a haircut as well.
Generally speaking, it's almost always best to avoid companies in danger of cutting dividends. The key is to pay close attention to operating businesses. As long as companies are coming in with solid numbers, dividends will be maintained and even increased.
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Monday, February 25, 2008
Recessionary Inflation Equals Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Recessionary inflation – it used to be called stagflation, but this time around the growth seems to be heading lower while inflation is rising all the way to modest levels. The CPI report showed that inflation was higher than expected, for both the “core” (without the unnecessary food and energy) as well as the “all in” kind. One key report next week will be the Producer price report that should show whether companies are able to pass along their higher prices to consumers. So far, companies have generally been eating the higher costs. Another key report is the income and spending report, here we are looking for spending to be below income growth and too, whether the income gains will be above that of the inflation rates.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
New Upleg in Dow Jones Diamond ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is the picture of the coil pattern as it applies to the Dow Diamonds ETF (AMEX: DIA), which shows that today's upside continuation of Friday's rally has positioned the price structure above the February resistance line, and just below key near-term resistance at 125.00 My near and intermediate-term work indicate that a new upleg started at Friday's pivot low of 121.56, within the Jan-Feb recovery period that should propel prices to test a more important resistance plateau at 128.00 next.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Three Great Investment Opportunities and One Grave Danger For Your Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
In a last ditch attempt to prevent a broader financial collapse, eight major banks in six different countries — Citigroup, Wachovia, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, Société Générale, BNP Paribas, UBS and Dresdner — are coming to the rescue of one U.S. bond insurance company this week: Ambac.
These are the banks that have the most exposure to structured securities and other derivatives guaranteed by Ambac ... and the most to lose if Ambac goes down.
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Monday, February 25, 2008
Credit Crunch Contagion Could Turn into Japan Style Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Captain_Hook
The Irony Of It All - Toxic credit crunch contagion continues to spread, silently kicking the stuffing out of the economy faster than people think. Whether you want to talk about credit cards , corporations , or commercial real estate – the credit crunch is spreading, and beginning to look nastier all the time. You should know that when banks begin to fail in the States, and they will, things could spiral out of control to the extent controls will to need be placed on both digital and physical movement. Transfers between banks will cease up completely, debts will be called in (so pay them off now), systems from food distribution to medical care will break down, and Martial Law will be the result as the population retaliates. Life will change as you know it. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis- Insiders Remain Bullish / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
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Sunday, February 24, 2008
Stock Market Update: Know When to Hold ‘Em / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
This continues to be a trader's market, no doubt about it. When it takes three months for the market to swing a hundred points in any one direction, but you can get 30 points in an hour, this is clearly not time to buy and hold.
The problem for many, though, is that they simply don't know how to trade short time frames and most subscription services don't specialize in real time analysis. Not so with TTC! Read on to see how we traded this past Friday and what it really means to be unbiased in this topsy-turvy market.
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Sunday, February 24, 2008
Stock Markets Expected To Restest January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Although the market is likely to retest the January lows in the near future, it is unlikely the new low indicators will confirm the retest.
Short Term - The secondaries lead both up and down.
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Sunday, February 24, 2008
Awaiting Signal for the Resumption of the Bearish Primary Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
Since the rally out of the January lows began, I have heard it said on numerous occasions that the strength of the Transports somehow has bullish undertones and implies that the decline is over. The overall spirit of the comments I have been hearing has to do with the fact that the Transports have recovered more than the Industrials. I have also heard that some are saying we now have a Dow theory non-confirmation in place. None of these comments or interpretations are correct in regard to traditional Dow theory. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 23, 2008
G7 Economies Turn Into Wealth Sucking Black Holes- Opportunities in Emerging Countries / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Ty_Andros
Volatility continues to expand at a blistering pace, wonderful isn't it? Volatility is opportunity for the prepared investor . This week's missive will be a little shorter than most as I have had a very bad flu. A number of markets are tipping their hands signaling another round of re-pricing in many markets, further signaling abundant opportunities DEAD ahead. We will cover a few here today. Next week we will address why commodities are not in a bubble in a definitive way - don't miss it ! Global Decoupling is still proceeding; it is just navigating a rough patch. You can see its outline clearly. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
Credit Crunches Typically Have Proven to be Investment Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Steve_Selengut
Many investors are beginning to think that income investing is every bit as risky as equity investing, but nothing has really changed in the relationship between these two basic building blocks of corporate finance. What has changed in recent years is the nature of the derivative products created by the wizards of Wall Street to deliver both forms of securities to investors. The most popular form of equity delivery today is the three-levels-of-speculation Index Fund. New ETFs are birthed every day and, in total, have become as common as common stocks. Have you noticed that regulators always strive to prevent financial disasters from happening... again? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 22, 2008
Credit Default Swaps, the Next Financial Armageddon? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Everyone knows that homeowners insurance is designed to insure against fires and floods but few are familiar with credit default swaps, arcane financial instruments invented by Wall Street about ten years ago. Credit default swaps (CDS) were designed as “insurance” to reimburse banks and bondholders when companies failed to pay their debts. Credit default swaps have become so popular among banks that the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates banks, reports that they are the fastest growing derivatives product in the market, growing 19% from the second quarter to the third quarter last year to $14 trillion in value. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
The US Fed IS Responsible for the Credit Crunch! / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
By: Mike_Whitney
It's Time to Dump the Federal Reserve - The credit storm which began in July when two Bear Stearns hedge funds were forced to liquidate, has continued to intensify and roil the markets. Last week the noose tightened around auction-rate securities,a little-known part of the market that requires short-term funding to set rates for long-term municipal bonds. The $330 billion ARS market has dried up overnight pushing up rates as high as 20% on some bonds---a new benchmark for short term debt. Auction-rate securities are now headed for extinction just like the other previously-vital parts of the structured finance paradigm. The $2 trillion market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), the multi-trillion dollar mortgage-backed securities market (MBSs) and the $1.3 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market have all shut down draining a small ocean of capital from the financial system and pushing many of the banks and hedge funds closer to default. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
New Recovery Upleg for S&P Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although th e-Mini S&P 500 (e-SPH) has given up its early gains, my sense is that the upmove from yesterday's low to this morning's high is the first upmove in a new recovery upleg that is destined to hurdle key "triple top" resistance at 1369.25-1371.50, and which should trigger upside acceleration towards a retest of the Feb high at 1400.00. From an intraday perspective, let's keep an eye on 1351/00, which represents the 50% pullback support area of the rally from yesterday's low to today's high, and which should contain forthcoming weakness if my bullish near-term count is to remain viable.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Interest Rate Cut Cycles Correlate with Negative Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Michael_Pento
Don't Bet the Farm on Rate Cuts! - The black hole consisting of record consumer debt ($2.52 trillion), falling asset prices, elevated inflation and weakening job and income growth is pulling us inexorably towards recession. As a result, the cacophony for yet more rate cuts has now become deafening. These rate cuts are anticipated to cure all of our ills, from the credit crisis to the Ebola virus. But will the lower interest rates really solve the banking crisis and turn the equity markets around in short order? I thought it would be informative to look at the last two interest rate cycles and compare them to the performance of the equity market. Read full article... Read full article...