Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crunch that broke with the two hedge funds failing in July 2007 is now into its ninth month with announces losses / bad debt write downs of £163 billions.
Way back in July the expectations were that sub prime related losses would be in the region of some $140billions.
With some venturing as far as possibly suggesting losses of $200, with some mavericks venturing to as high as $400 billion which was larger than that of the Savings and Loans crisis of $160 billions that required a US Tax Payer bailout of $124billions.
The article of July 07 (Hedge Fund Sub prime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates ) pointed out that the consequences of the credit crunch would be the worlds central banks ratcheting up money supply growth and making deep cuts in interest rates despite the inflationary consequences as the Central banks attempted to counter the credit crunch liquidity squeeze. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Stock Market On Target for Retest of January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We will probably see a multi month low in the next few weeks.
Short Term After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
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Saturday, March 01, 2008
Credit Contagion Spreads from Monoline Insurers to VIE's / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The next 3-letter acronym for toxic securities: “VIE” - While banks are lending another $3 billion to Ambac, a bond insurer, in the hope of staving off more rating downgrades, yet another entity looms large in the field of risk management. Suddenly, a new class of structured investment vehicle called Variable Interest Entities (VIEs), now contain toxic properties. It appears that the VIEs are bond issues that participate in the Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market. These bonds have a clause in their covenant that, if an auction fails to provide adequate liquidity, the yield on the bond resets (higher, of course) to a “fail rate.” Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Digestion Period for Nasdaq Q's Ahead of Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Thus far, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have managed to plunge from the top of the coil pattern (44.50) to the bottom of the coil pattern (43.15). Apart from the volatility exhibited within the range, let's notice that for the past two weeks, rallies have failed at roughly the same price, which have created a horizontal top plateau at 44.50, which is juxtaposed against a series of rising lows. The vast majority of the time, a "flat top" versus "rising lows" resolves itself with the price structure pushing above the flat top. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Credit Crisis Timeline - From Foreclosures To Bank Failures / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Lamont
As Charles Kindleberger asks in the investment classic Manias, Panics and Crashes ; “the essence of financial distress is loss of confidence. What comes next - slow recovery of belief in the future as various aspects of the economy are corrected, or collapse of prices, panic, runs on banks, a rush to get out of illiquid assets and into money?”
Our timeline of financial distress is below:
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Bank Failures Warning! - Banking Crisis Entering a New Stage? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'm going to cut to the chase here: The U.S. financial industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Unlike past crises, which tended to be isolated in one or two parts of the credit market, this one is different ...
We are seeing major credit problems popping up in everything from residential mortgages to commercial mortgages to leveraged buyout loans to credit cards to auto loans. (And I'm probably forgetting a few!)
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Investing in China - Oodles More Money to Be Made! / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Is China's boom over? Ha! Not by a long shot! China's economic rocket ride higher is far from over, and I think there are oodles of money to be made playing this giant as it awakens — and shakes the world!
First, let's look at some of the recent economic stats coming out of China ...
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
Importance of the Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market For Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Background : All sustainable and hold-able rallies have one thing in common. The Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market is always positive and trending up to a high level. Simply look at the red bar graph below ... see when it was positive, and then look down at the NYA Index and you will see that these times all represented great upside rallies. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Semiconductor Stock Turn Higher / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
During the past three sessions, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX: SMH) has climbed above key near-term prior high and trendline resistance at 29.60/80, and has continued still higher towards a test of its February recovery rally peak at 30.24.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Ambac Bailout May Cause Credit Crisis to Worsen / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Axel_Merk
A consortium of banks is considering injecting $3 billion dollars into Ambac, the mono-line insurer that relies on its AAA rating to insure, amongst others, municipal bonds and CDOs ( collateralized debt obligations ). What appears as a rescue plan and may appease the markets short-term, may plant the seeds for disaster.
Mono-line insurers used to be in the business of insuring municipal bonds. For a small fee to the insurers, municipalities were able to attach a AAA rating to their bond offerings, significantly lowering their borrowing cost. The market was so attractive that a short-term market was created where long-term debt was packaged into “auction rate securities” (ARS). ARS are a kind of commercial paper attractive to, amongst others, money market funds and treasury departments of large corporations. Municipal bond funds are also large buyers of insured municipal debt.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Financial Stocks Gaining Upside Momentum / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF) is gaining some upside strength as it emerges from its 3-week sideways but base-link congestion area that projects a measured upside follow-through towards the 28.50 target zone. A climb above 27.50 should trigger upside acceleration. Only a decline that breaks 27.00 will begin to compromise the developing upside breakout.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Subprime Mortgage Scam Lands US Tax Payer $739 Billion Bailout Bill / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
The SEC probe of the securitization of subprime mortgages into collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), announced last summer, has yielded no official enforcement cases....SEC chief, Christopher Cox, along with other top-level administration officials, has cautioned against quick-fire regulatory or enforcement responses to the worsening credit crisis, noting that the market instead should be left to work it out.” Nicholas Rummel, “SEC Drift Said to Prevent Action on Credit Crunch”, Financial Week Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Utilities Sector Better Positioned to Weather Recession and Dividend Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Utilities
By: Roger_Conrad
Even in the best markets, dividend cuts are poison for income investors. Not only is your regular cash flow cut, but your principal typically takes a haircut as well.
Generally speaking, it's almost always best to avoid companies in danger of cutting dividends. The key is to pay close attention to operating businesses. As long as companies are coming in with solid numbers, dividends will be maintained and even increased.
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Monday, February 25, 2008
Recessionary Inflation Equals Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Recessionary inflation – it used to be called stagflation, but this time around the growth seems to be heading lower while inflation is rising all the way to modest levels. The CPI report showed that inflation was higher than expected, for both the “core” (without the unnecessary food and energy) as well as the “all in” kind. One key report next week will be the Producer price report that should show whether companies are able to pass along their higher prices to consumers. So far, companies have generally been eating the higher costs. Another key report is the income and spending report, here we are looking for spending to be below income growth and too, whether the income gains will be above that of the inflation rates.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
New Upleg in Dow Jones Diamond ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Here is the picture of the coil pattern as it applies to the Dow Diamonds ETF (AMEX: DIA), which shows that today's upside continuation of Friday's rally has positioned the price structure above the February resistance line, and just below key near-term resistance at 125.00 My near and intermediate-term work indicate that a new upleg started at Friday's pivot low of 121.56, within the Jan-Feb recovery period that should propel prices to test a more important resistance plateau at 128.00 next.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Three Great Investment Opportunities and One Grave Danger For Your Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
In a last ditch attempt to prevent a broader financial collapse, eight major banks in six different countries — Citigroup, Wachovia, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, Société Générale, BNP Paribas, UBS and Dresdner — are coming to the rescue of one U.S. bond insurance company this week: Ambac.
These are the banks that have the most exposure to structured securities and other derivatives guaranteed by Ambac ... and the most to lose if Ambac goes down.
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Monday, February 25, 2008
Credit Crunch Contagion Could Turn into Japan Style Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Captain_Hook
The Irony Of It All - Toxic credit crunch contagion continues to spread, silently kicking the stuffing out of the economy faster than people think. Whether you want to talk about credit cards , corporations , or commercial real estate – the credit crunch is spreading, and beginning to look nastier all the time. You should know that when banks begin to fail in the States, and they will, things could spiral out of control to the extent controls will to need be placed on both digital and physical movement. Transfers between banks will cease up completely, debts will be called in (so pay them off now), systems from food distribution to medical care will break down, and Martial Law will be the result as the population retaliates. Life will change as you know it. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis- Insiders Remain Bullish / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
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Sunday, February 24, 2008
Stock Market Update: Know When to Hold ‘Em / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
This continues to be a trader's market, no doubt about it. When it takes three months for the market to swing a hundred points in any one direction, but you can get 30 points in an hour, this is clearly not time to buy and hold.
The problem for many, though, is that they simply don't know how to trade short time frames and most subscription services don't specialize in real time analysis. Not so with TTC! Read on to see how we traded this past Friday and what it really means to be unbiased in this topsy-turvy market.
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Sunday, February 24, 2008
Stock Markets Expected To Restest January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Although the market is likely to retest the January lows in the near future, it is unlikely the new low indicators will confirm the retest.
Short Term - The secondaries lead both up and down.
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