Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue- No Sign of a Bottom / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: When this decline is over the market will be setup for an extend rally.
Short Term
After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Stock Markets Set to Plunge to Depths Not Seen Since the 1990's / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Super-Dangerous Dow-Gold Divergence - Gold's been going up and the Dow has been dropping for months, now. If this persists for more than maybe two more months, it can spell utter doom for global equities markets - and will cause a huge explosion in precious metals prices and shares. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
US Home Owners Debts Exceed Equity / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The pace of expansion of all forms of debt is decelerating in the fourth quarter of 2007. Domestic non-financial debt rose 8% as a whole over 2007, .75% lower than in 2006. That may not seem like a slowdown, but consumers are changing course at the fastest pace, slowing from a pace of 6.75% annualized growth of debt in the third quarter to 5.5% in the fourth quarter. For the year, household debt rose at 6.75% compared to 10.25% in 2006. State and local government debt expanded at a rate of 9.75% for the entire year, while the Federal Government claims to have expanded its debt burden by 5%. I don't believe that last figure, since much of the Federal Government spending is “off the books.” Read the report and weep. We're all a bunch of debt junkies. Kicking the habit will be very hard. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
Market Forecasts- US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Gold, Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Christopher_Laird
So much is happening with the USD and the critical US credit markets, as well as with gold and commodities. Now that the USD broke below the key 73 level on the USDX (US dollar index basket of currencies, heavily Euro weighted) many key issues come to the fore for gold and commodities.
Euro, commodities
First, the EU is still rather firm on interest rates, but they have a lot of pressure as the Euro breaks over 1.50. The ECB and EU have previously made comments that they could intervene in currency markets if the Euro breaks above 1.50 . Any indication that can happen will cause a significant USD turnaround. That would then apply to gold and oil as well, as these have risen so much recently and are due for profit taking (or that pressure is there). So, the Euro situation needs to be closely tracked, as any significant change in policy can cause oil, gold, and commodity profit taking.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Ominous S&P 500 Stock Market Chart- Warning of Oct 2002 Target / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The very big picture of the S&P 500 chart -- (AMEX: SPY) for traders of the ETF -- shows the making of a giant double-top pattern that could be on the verge of downside acceleration that breaks the January low at 1270 and begins to fulfill its "natural potential" on the way towards a revisit of the 2002 low. Yes, that is an extreme forecast, but that is the look that this pattern exhibits. No, it will not happen in a straight line, and more than likely any decline in the SPX that violates the January 2008 low at 1270 will find support at the 50% support area of the entire 2002-2007 bull move, which is at 1174.00. Be that as it may, this is a very ominous longer-term chart picture. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 07, 2008
Stock Market Forecast and Outlook for March 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
If you want to beat the market, you need to invest with the trend. In looking at the trend, I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Capital and Debt Markets Crisis- Investors Four Critical Questions / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Doug_Wakefield
Does tracking the major US equity markets give us a full grasp of the amount of risks in our capital markets? Absolutely not. Consider this: Over the last 14 months, from the end of 2006 to the last day of February of 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ 100 are only down 1.58% and .63%, respectively. But, if we look at some of the major SECTORS of our economy, we get a different picture. For example, over the same timeframe, the retail index ($RLX) is down 22.85%, the housing index ($HGX) is down 42.55%, the brokerage index ($XBD) is down 24.90%, and the banking index ($BKX) is down 29.91%, while the healthcare index ($HCX) is only down 2.32%. So, four major areas of our economy are down substantially, and neither the Dow nor the NASDAQ 100 has reflected this reality.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Credit Crisis Mega Opportunities as Everything is Repriced to True Values / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
I can't tell you how wonderful it is to be alive in today's markets. This past week was one of great importance as the markets really signaled enormous new realities which now have to be priced in over the coming years. Volatility is opportunity and it is abundant . What makes it even juicier for the prepared investor is that it is now apparent on WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, signaling the enormous timeframes in which we are anticipating BIG MOVES! We're only in the second inning in a 9-inning ballgame. Re-pricing of everything to its TRUE VALUE is underway and creating mega opportunities for prepared investors. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Counter Trend Rally in Stock Market S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The plot thickens. In this morning's posting we discussed the likelihood of upside follow-through from yesterday's low at 1307.00 in the S&P 500 e-Mini contract, but that the index would have to hurdle and sustain above 1348.50 to trigger upside acceleration towards the op of the Feb-Mar range. As it turned ou, the e-SPH peaked so far at 1345.00 prior to its mid-session AMBAC swoon. More vital, however, is that the pattern carved out from 1307 to 1345 does NOT exhibit particularly bullish form.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Stocks on the Brink of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
At the end of January, I wrote the article entitled, A Probable Path Revealed . In that article, I suggested that the January23 rd low was just the ending of wave (i) of C. After a brief rally, I expected waves (iii), (iv) and (v) to proceed. Well, the rally wasn't brief. But it appears that wave (ii) is now complete. Rather that using Elliott Wave, I have been keeping a chart of the DJIA with the head-and-shoulders neckline (red), the trendline of the advance from March 2003 and the Fibonacci retracements. They tell a compelling story at a glance.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Financial Markets Investing- Exploring All The Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Captain_Hook
These are definitely interesting times we live in, and the markets are also in this category from a predictive standpoint. Many are now dependent on the stock market's performance, so the stakes are high on numerous fronts. And for this reason you not only have participants remaining invested far past what would have historically been viewed as ‘prudent', but master planners in our society feel justified in arriving at a desired outcome no matter the means. This of course often involves market manipulation in addition to a regular priming of the pump by influencing prices in the futures markets, which extends from currencies to foreign stock markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
NASDAQ at Bargain Buy Levels or On the Edge of a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Marty_Chenard
1. Is the NASDAQ 100 at a great bargain level?
2. Or, is it at the edge of a potentially perilous drop?
To get the answer, we have to look at a "long term", 10 year view of where it is now and how it is performing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Stock Markets Targeting January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Book-ending the month of February were to big sell-offs that left investors wondering if we were on the precipice of something truly large in the way of another major decline. While the first decline was more the ending to a very poor January, the one on Friday has investors questioning their views on the economy and the implications for stock prices in the weeks ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Epic Paradigm Shift Looms Against the Acceptance of Fiat Money / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Joseph_Russo
Adaptive Trading and Investment Perspectives Since we first began offering our market forecasting and analysis services to the public some two years ago, Elliott Wave Technology has been strident in directing our clients focus and attention to the negative wealth effects that eroding fiat-currency's impose - along with the plausibility of epic consequence, if and when an inevitable paradigm shift against the acceptance of fiat-money were to ever reach critical mass. No matter where we are in a given investment cycle, we must first recognize the inherent nature of that environment, and then adapt our various investment postures with fitting perspective.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crunch that broke with the two hedge funds failing in July 2007 is now into its ninth month with announces losses / bad debt write downs of £163 billions.
Way back in July the expectations were that sub prime related losses would be in the region of some $140billions.
With some venturing as far as possibly suggesting losses of $200, with some mavericks venturing to as high as $400 billion which was larger than that of the Savings and Loans crisis of $160 billions that required a US Tax Payer bailout of $124billions.
The article of July 07 (Hedge Fund Sub prime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates ) pointed out that the consequences of the credit crunch would be the worlds central banks ratcheting up money supply growth and making deep cuts in interest rates despite the inflationary consequences as the Central banks attempted to counter the credit crunch liquidity squeeze. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Stock Market On Target for Retest of January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We will probably see a multi month low in the next few weeks.
Short Term After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Credit Contagion Spreads from Monoline Insurers to VIE's / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The next 3-letter acronym for toxic securities: “VIE” - While banks are lending another $3 billion to Ambac, a bond insurer, in the hope of staving off more rating downgrades, yet another entity looms large in the field of risk management. Suddenly, a new class of structured investment vehicle called Variable Interest Entities (VIEs), now contain toxic properties. It appears that the VIEs are bond issues that participate in the Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market. These bonds have a clause in their covenant that, if an auction fails to provide adequate liquidity, the yield on the bond resets (higher, of course) to a “fail rate.” Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Digestion Period for Nasdaq Q's Ahead of Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Thus far, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have managed to plunge from the top of the coil pattern (44.50) to the bottom of the coil pattern (43.15). Apart from the volatility exhibited within the range, let's notice that for the past two weeks, rallies have failed at roughly the same price, which have created a horizontal top plateau at 44.50, which is juxtaposed against a series of rising lows. The vast majority of the time, a "flat top" versus "rising lows" resolves itself with the price structure pushing above the flat top. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Credit Crisis Timeline - From Foreclosures To Bank Failures / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Lamont
As Charles Kindleberger asks in the investment classic Manias, Panics and Crashes ; “the essence of financial distress is loss of confidence. What comes next - slow recovery of belief in the future as various aspects of the economy are corrected, or collapse of prices, panic, runs on banks, a rush to get out of illiquid assets and into money?”
Our timeline of financial distress is below:
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Bank Failures Warning! - Banking Crisis Entering a New Stage? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'm going to cut to the chase here: The U.S. financial industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Unlike past crises, which tended to be isolated in one or two parts of the credit market, this one is different ...
We are seeing major credit problems popping up in everything from residential mortgages to commercial mortgages to leveraged buyout loans to credit cards to auto loans. (And I'm probably forgetting a few!)
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