Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Financial Meltdown In the Credit Markets - Fingers of Instability Part Five / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue – 3 Fingers
- Financial Meltdown, aka Systemic Heart attack !
- Con Game
- Bold Predictions: Destination 1200 S&P 500, 600 Russell 2000, Dow 10800
Series Introduction – Click Here
This is a tough edition of Tedbits to chronicle. I have watched markets since 1981 and read the tealeaves during that period. We are in for a storm that is rarely seen, it is why the “Fingers of Instability” series came back to the fore from last spring. It is hard to choose what to write about at this time as the actions from various markets are screaming for attention that you should know. Gold broke out this week signaling at least a 200 dollar move from current levels, but the implication of the breakout is a financial market “ARM”ageddon, securitized asset hell and a federal reserve that is behind the curve in what's unfolding and choosing precisely the wrong moment to try and extinguish the Greenspan put. Billions of dollars are vaporizing as you read this.
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Sunday, September 09, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 9th Setember 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is still in its up-phase but, as we approach its mid-point, some of its dominant components which are topping will restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr cycle which is now in an uptrend, and this could lead to another correction in 2008.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - Climactic action followed by an immediate reversal suggests that the 4.5-yr cycle has bottomed but some additional consolidation may be required before new highs are made.
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Sunday, September 09, 2007
The Federal Reserve: Putting out a fire with Gasoline / Stock-Markets / Money Supply
By: Bob_Kirtley
The Federal Reserves answer to the problem caused by too much money in the system is to print more money. Further dilution of the once almighty dollar continues with it dropping two cents over the last three weeks for a loss of 2.4%.
On the other hand gold has gained $40.00 over the same period for a gain of 6%.
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Sunday, September 09, 2007
Financial Markets Update: Top of the 9th / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
Like most of the posting in the forum during the week, this update is going to be brief for the simple reason that the market is treading over the same ground week after week. Despite that sinking feeling in the pit of the bulls' stomachs as Friday wrapped up at the lows, the market validated our theme last week by not crashing – the S&P was only off by 17 points, hardly a disaster!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Stock Markets - Hope Floats: Fear Still Distant / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Anchors Away: The financial sphere along with the ruling army of entrenched corporate and political elites, deeply committed and harboring inordinate interest in perpetuating an unsustainable war/debt-based prosperity paradigm - are keeping their fingers tightly-crossed that “hope” and illusion, along with a likely forthcoming tsunami of ponzi-rigged bailout schemes will float the right number of boats - rather than sink the good-ship Lollie-Pop. It is in all of our best interest that all such hope truly “float,” unlike the sinking anchor and shackle effects of fiat currency.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2007
Are The Banks In Trouble? / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Mike_Whitney
“ The new capitalist gods must love the poor – they are making so many more of them .” Bill Bonner, “The Daily Reckoning”
“ The hope of every central bank is that the real problem can be kept from public view. The truth is that the public---even professionals on Wall Street---have no clue what the real problem is. They know it has something to do with derivatives, but none of them realize that it's more than a $20 trillion mountain of unfunded, unregulated paper that has just been discovered to not have a market and, therefore, no real value… When the dollar realizes the seriousness of the situation---be that now or sometime soon---the bottom will drop out. ” Jim Sinclair, Investment analyst
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Friday, September 07, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Analysis - US Employment Situation Unchanged? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
“Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-4,000) in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.”
Unchanged??? If you look more closely at the numbers, the Department of Labor (DOL) had to decrease the civilian workforce by 340,000 in order to achieve that feat. The other trick they pulled out of their hat this month is to add 120,000 fictitious jobs through the CES Birth/Death Model. Neat trick, eh? Could it be that the USA just lost 464,000 jobs last month? We'll never know for sure, but the statistics are underwhelming. The two largest blocks of new hires is health care (35,000) and food service employees (24,000). Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs were down another 46,000 and construction was down 22,000.
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Friday, September 07, 2007
S&P 500 Stock Market Index Trading in a Range / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
From a BIG picture perspective of the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY), my sense is that the price structure is traversing a range between 149-150 on the high side, juxtaposed against 145 to 143.50 on the low side. A climb above 150 should trigger a run at the July high of 155.53, while a break of 143.50 should trigger downside acceleration towards a retest of the August low at 137.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2007
Financial Aphasia: What happens when Mortgages, Credit and the Economy lose Meaning / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_Petillo
The first time I spoke about the subject of sub-prime mortgages and the potential for this seemingly endless fallout came during a live television show in February of 2006. Granted, the demographic for that medium market audience was not the same as those watching the more affluent Bloomberg network or even the rowdy bunch who tune in to CNBC. Yet it was the very audience that needed to hear what must have seemed at the time like a “sky is falling” report.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Do Stock Market Investors Really Want The Fed to Lower US Interest Rates? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors trying to beat the market are closely following the trends in interest rates, especially the Federal Funds Rates. With many of the market traders and talking heads calling for a cut in the Fed Funds rate, do investors follow their advice or make their own assessment. Let's look at what the theory says about the link of interest rates and the market. Next we will look at the impact of inflation will have on rates and finally a chart that compares Fed Funds rates, the 3 month Treasury Rate and the S&P 500. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Tactical View of the Financial Markets: A Little Help From Our Friends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Justice_Litle
Tactical View of the Financial Markets: A Little Help From Our Friends
What would you do if I sang out of tune,
Would you stand up and walk out on me?
Lend me your ears and I'll sing you a song
And I'll try not to sing out of key...
-- Joe Cocker, A Little Help From My Friends
IN BRIEF
- George Bush and Ben Bernanke gave a helping hand to the market last week with their accomodative talk. Lucky perhaps, but also part of the expected market script.
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Wednesday, September 05, 2007
FTSE 100 Index Forecast for Sept 2007 - Crash in the Financial Sector / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FTSE 100 rally from the recent lows appears to have ended and is signaling a third leg of the down trend that targets a new low for the year for the FTSE 100 Index. This is on the back of the continuing crash in the financial sector due to the ongoing Subprime sparked credit crunch.
Technical Analysis of the FTSE 100 Index
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Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Pullback in Nasdaq Should Hold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The all-day sell-off continues right into the final hour of trading. The Q's (Nasdaq: QQQQ) are nearing important near-term support between 48.80 and 48.50, where I expect the pullback to hold and reverse (not necessarily this afternoon). If such a scenario does unfold in the upcoming hours, an upside reversal off of 48.80/50 should trigger a new upleg that propels the Q's above 50.00 towards a retest of the July high at 50.46. Conversely, a violation of 48.50 will set up an important test of the Aug-Sept. trendline, which cuts across the price axis at 48.10 today.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Stock Market Bargains and Trouble Ahead at the Same Time? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Labor Day is over and investors witnessed a quiet weekend. There were two noteworthy news Headlines this weekend. The first headline was: "Merrill Lynch & Co. cut its earnings estimates for regional banks, citing risks to economic growth.
The second headline was: "U.S. investors are returning from summer vacation to the cheapest stock market in almost 12 years, and some of the biggest fund managers say they're ready to load up on shares of technology, energy and industrial companies."
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Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Stock Market Crash Third Leg - Fingers of Instability Part Four / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue – 2 Fingers of Instability
Reversion To The Mean
Amen Corner
Many in the economic and financial commentary business are calling what's unfolding the big one, the event that brings down the worlds booming economy and a systemic failure of the financial system. While I believe this is a serious blow up and will create lots of opportunities both “Long and short” in many markets I truly believe this is a financial problem only. It is a repricing of risk and a correction of many ill advised investments but not the end of the world. There is TOO MUCH MONEY out there to cushion the downside. The financials sectors and banks are going to get it good and hard, as they should as they tried to reach too far into the cookie jar.
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Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Subprime Hedge Fund Credit Crunch Time-line / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
July 18, 2007. Bear Stearns advises investors in two failed hedge funds that they'll get back little if any money. The larger fund (valued at $925 million in March) had borrowed almost $9bn, while the smaller fund (valued at $638 in March) had borrowed $11bn.
July 29, 2007 . “ Germany puts rescue fund in place for IKB… The German government has begun a rescue operation to shore up Europe's first big casualty of the US subprime crisis …German finance minister called leading banking executives to discuss a bailout…a pledge to guarantee obligations of more than €8bn (£5.4bn) – more than five times IKB's stock market value.” ( Financial Times)
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Tuesday, September 04, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Let's Get Back to the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The extra day off – thanks to the hard, back breaking work of the “laborer”, got an added boost from the unlikely duo of Mr. Bernanke and President Bush. While working hard in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Mr. Bernanke indicated that the Fed stood at the ready to provide liquidity to the markets in case of additional disasters in the mortgage market. President Bush, as only a CEO could do, pre-empted his appointee and announced that he was proposing legislation to help all those poor souls who got themselves in too deep chasing the American dream. The pronouncements put some added juice into the financial markets and they recovered all that was lost early in the week – albeit on very low volume.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Bernanke Blinks on Credit Crunch – But Will It Matter? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Captain_Hook
Well, Bernanke was wrong , and those pointing out the credit crunch was contagious , including yours truly , were right. Of course it should have been no surprise hearing such an official forecast considering what's at stake, that being the global economy. Oh – and that's not all that's at stake. The Fed's future ability to affect the economy is also at stake, where many are watching to see how Bernanke stacks up in comparison to Greenspan under pressure, this being Bernanke's first big test. Here, if Ben were perceived to fail, where Greenspan is to this day viewed as a winner, there's no telling what to expect in financial markets this fall. A collapsing dollar ($), collapsing bond market, and quite possibly plunging stocks markets in turn certainly come to mind. And unfortunately, even he and the global Working Group on Financial Markets do stave off disaster in the short-term, which they will surely attempt, this would only postpone the inevitable, as already it's largely understood the credit crunch is for real, where no matter what measures are undertaken in defense of the system (including the suppression of gold), the dominos of disaster are already falling. Let's open this line of thinking up further below.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Sub-prime Mortgage Credit Crunch From Bad to Worse / Stock-Markets / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: David_Vaughn
Well, that poor bull seems to be tiring. Uh, oh! No! Wait! I believe there's life in that ole' gold bull yet. Anyway, there is life for those with enough sense to observe its strength and consistency.
Well, I spent an entire article last week about this subprime mess and scandal and I still do not feel I said enough on the topic. The damage this will cause our country and the rest of the world really is enormous. I really don't like to come across as a doom and gloomer, but I would be a coward to run from the subject and choose to ignore it.
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Sunday, September 02, 2007
The Weiss Stock Bear Market Strategy / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
Sebastian Leburn writes: I'm the portfolio manager of the Weiss Bear Strategy, and I think it's time we talk about the risks of U.S. stock market declines.
Most people think the risk is greatest when corporate profits are sinking or unemployment is rising. However, some of the sharpest and most prolonged stock market declines in history began in the best of times.
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