Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Stock Market Cycle Turning Points Analysis 23rd September 2007 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market.
SPX: Long-Term Trend - The 12-yr cycle is approaching its mid-point and some of its dominant
components which are topping should soon restrain the bullish effect of the 4.5-yr cycle which has
just made its low and is now in an uptrend. This could lead to another period of consolidation in
2008 with an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate Trend - With the 4.5-yr cycle making its low in August, the intermediate-term trend is now up.
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Sunday, September 23, 2007
Stock Market Update: Don't Fool with the Fed! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Did someone order a breakout? Or a bear sandwich? The Feds went hunting for shorts again this week with a 50 basis point cut in their overnight target rate that sparked the biggest one day rally in years. And, just like after their surprise cut of the discount rate in August, short positions were forced to cover en masse as there was little if anything to suggest in advance such a dramatic policy shift was forthcoming.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The $900 billion "Bin Laden" Options trade Expires / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
On August 29th , a news website picked up on the existence of a gargantuan option trade that had the internet abuzz for the last month. You see, a trade of that size suggests to many that something is afoot. One point of view was that whoever bought or sold that ($900 million) option was anticipating disaster in the markets. Today that option trade expired, worthless. But was it a total loss? Not according to www.moneymorning.com (See “The $900 million Conspiracy Trade That Wasn't.) In the options business, a “box spread trade” can be used to lend someone money that could not get it in other venues and allows the lender (most likely a large banking institution) to keep its money at work. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Semiconductor Stocks Grind Higher / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (AMEX: SMH) continues to carve out a rounded base-like pattern since late July, which resembles an inverted head-and-shoulders. Today's upside continuation off of Monday's pivot low at 36.80 has pushed prices towards the neckline resistance plateau between 38.80-39.10, which if hurdled and sustained, should trigger acceleration towards 40.50-42.00. At this juncture, only a plunge that breaks 37.90 will begin to compromise the developing pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 21, 2007
Why following Stock Market Liquidity Inflows or Outflows are Very Important ... / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Liquidity levels and inflows are a critical element in the stock market, just as they are for Corporations and family finances.
Our Liquidity model is simple to understand. When in Expansion, the amount of liquidity flowing in is positive. When in Contraction, more liquidity is flowing out than in.
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Friday, September 21, 2007
Fed Panics! - Era of Global Financial Market Instability / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Whitney
Wall Street loves cheap money. That's why traders were celebrating on Tuesday when Fed chief Ben Bernanke announced that he'd drop interest rates from 5.25% to 4.75%. The stock market immediately zoomed upward adding 336 points before the bell rang. The next day the giddiness continued. By mid-morning the Dow was up another 110 points and headed for the stratosphere. Everyone on Wall Street loves Bernanke. He brings them candy and sweets and lets the American worker pay the bill. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Stock Market Turns - Short-Term Outlook / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Jim_Curry
Current SPX Index Positions:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = BULLISH; 40% long @1448.96
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = NEUTRAL
From previous outlook: “we may be able to make some assumptions on what lies ahead for the next few days. First, we do have the outstanding upside target to 1491 SPX CASH or higher for the 10-day cycle, which does favor a higher high still out there for the short-term. Secondly, the current 10 and 20 day up phase that began off of last Monday's bottom would have the best ‘look' for a higher high above 1496.40 to materialize.
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Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Historical Analysis of Stock Market Behavior Following Fed Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Developments in financial markets since the Committee's last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of these and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.." - Federal Open Market Committee, 09/18/2007
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering its target discount rate (interest rate) by 0.50% on September 18, 2007, it is prudent to examine how stocks behaved in the year following similar historical rate cuts. I chose to focus on the Fed rate cuts in 1986, 1995, 1998, and 2001 since the current Target Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate) of 5.25% (prior to the cut) and the current published inflation rate of 2.50% are similar to the rates found in those years.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007
US Banks Brace for Financial Storm Surge as Dollar Plunge and Credit System Panic / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Whitney
By now, you've probably seen the photos of the angry customers queued up outside of Northern Rock Bank waiting to withdraw their money. This is the first big run on a British bank in over a century. It's lost an eighth of its deposits in three days. The pictures are headline news in the U.K. but have been stuck on the back pages of U.S. newspapers. The reason for this is obvious. The same Force 5 economic-hurricane that just touched ground in Great Britain is headed for America and gaining strength on the way. On Monday night, desperately trying to stave off a wider panic, the British government issued an emergency pledge to Northern Rock savers that their money was safe. The government is trying to find a buyer for Northern Rock.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Northern Rock Bank Rescue Could Turn Into a Financial Crash on the Scale of Black Wednesday / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: John_Mauldin
Here Comes A Whale - My friends have at GaveKal have been whale watching for some time. But not for Blue whales or in an ocean. There theory is that Central banks keep throwing dynamite (in terms of liquidity) into the ocean during credit problems, watching little fish die and don't stop until a whale floats to the surface, thereby giving a signal that the credit crisis is close to being over. They think they have spotted that whale.
This week in a very interesting and decidedly different Outside the Box, Charles Gave writes about the current liquidity crisis and the problems surfacing in England. Remember, it was problems in Asia and then Russia that created the problems in 1998. We should all pay attention to what is going on. Are there more whales getting ready to float to the top?
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Monday, September 17, 2007
Bullish Scenario Should Remain Intact for Nasdaq (Qs) / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am not sure what to make of the hourly pattern that has been carved-out by the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) since the 9/04 high at 50.00 -- other than it exhibits a series of higher lows and lower highs that have formed a coil pattern. Such a coil-type pattern just off of a recent high usually resolves itself in a thrust to the upside in sympathy with, and to continue, the underlying dominant uptrend. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Housing Market Fire Sales - Fingers of Instability Series Part Six / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue – 5 Fingers
- FIRE SALES!
- The Silence is Deafening, Getting Ready to Lie With Numbers, Again!
- Are the Stock Markets Just Off Their Highs or Just Off Their Lows?
- Pigs in the Investment Python
- Crude Realities
FIRE SALES!
Little reported in this week's news was the Fire Sale Hovnanian Homebuilders conducted over the weekend. Offering 30% discounts on their new homes as they headed for the sidelines before their peers do. It is an act of yelling “FIRE IN A THEATRE”. Please understand that prices are set at the margin, in other words, the value of your holdings are determined by the last price at which they were transacted. In this example with Hovnanian it works out this way: Homes were sold at 30% discount to reduce inventories and to satisfy creditors that were getting nervous and demanding payment.
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Monday, September 17, 2007
Northern Rock Panic - FSA Compensation Scheme Savings Limits Are Too Low and Need to Be Raised / Stock-Markets / UK Banking
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The run on Northern Rock bank by customers withdrawing hard earned savings could have been avoided by a decent amount of compensation security. The current limits set some 10 years ago are far too low to offer much security to all but minimal savings levels.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Beating the Credit Crunch Financial Bust / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Andy_Sutton
Of the over 500,000 words in the English language, I am pretty confident at this point that most of them have been used in one way or another to describe the current credit disaster. I am very confident in calling this a disaster since the bobbleheads on TV insist on saying it ain't so. The question that continues to show up in my inbox on a daily basis, and now with more urgency than ever is how to beat this? Is it possible? What can the little guy do? I think that most people are at least aware that this is going to hurt.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
How to Truly Globalize Your Investment Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Peter_Schiff
Americans may be known for their appreciation of world cuisines … but when it comes to investing, they generally stick with homegrown meat and potatoes.
That's too bad. Reason: As global economic imbalances finally right themselves, the American-only investors may be forced to start an unwanted crash diet.
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Monday, September 17, 2007
September Financial Markets Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
Despite all the froth and fury, and mantras of doom and gloom, according to Dow theory, the bull market continues. Should interest rates fall on Tuesday it could give new impetus to the upward movement. However, if the Fed disappoints, there could be significant carnage but maybe not enough to change the overall macro positive trend in the transports and the industrials. If the technical position confirms this any pullback could provide a wonderful buying opportunity.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Stock Market Update: Trader's Best Friend / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
If last week kicked off the top of the ninth, then you could say we definitely saw some base hits and some runners advancing this week. You may have noticed we basically got a mirror image of the previous five days, finding a bottom on Monday and closing Friday near the highs. But, unless you're already a member of TTC , you probably didn't buy that Monday low. If you were like many, chances are you figured the bottom had dropped out after that employment number, that it was another 1987, or maybe we were about to get hit with another 9/11.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Stock Market Analysis - Who really has control right now ... the Bulls or the Bears? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
There are different ways of measuring what is happening in the markets. Indexes measure the market, but some indexes are price weighted, some are market value-weighted or market share-weighted, and some are float weighted. It is sometimes why, a few stocks can have an over exaggerated impact on the movement of an index.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Gold Bull Market as OECD and IMF Warn of Global Financial Instability / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Investment Climate Changes - Think back to two months ago. Now think back to today. There have been some big changes in confidence levels, not only in global growth, but the financial structures of the world. Lots of reassuring words are flying around, but few are convinced that all is well. This would not matter so much but some of the statements of concern have come from the leading figures in the globe's main financial institutions. Mr. Ben Benanke has warned that the U.S. Trade deficit is unsustainable, he also warned of a potential waning of foreigner's appetite for U.S. Treasury securities. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Greenspan on Questionable Subprime Lending Tactics: Mr Bubble Writes a Book / Stock-Markets / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: Brady_Willett
"While I was aware a lot of these [questionable lending] practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late...I really didn't get it until very late in 2005 and 2006".
Greenspan Defends Low Interest Rates ~ 60 Minutes
After Greenspan 'got it', and before the toxic paper started to blowup, what did he think about the U.S. housing market? That the worst was over, of course:
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