Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Stock Market Cycles Analysis - The Trend is still up, Sentiment is High, but Change is in the Wind / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
Let me begin by explaining that in my work with the markets there are really two distinctly separate pieces. First, is what I call the "over the horizon" piece. This work utilizes the Dow theory, cycles and statistical trend quantifications, all to develop probabilities as to what likely lies ahead or "over the horizon" for a given market. The second piece of my work is primarily centered around my Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator provides us with confirmation at important turn points. So, it tells us what we should expect now and in the immediate future. All the while, I am constantly watching and monitoring the longer-term "over the horizon" work as well. Sometimes, the intermediate-term work can evolve and change the longer-term forecasts, while other times it may confirm the longer-term forecast. So, this is an act of working two ends to the middle.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 20th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Since 1953 the S&P 500 (SPX) has been down only once during the week following the 3rd Friday in January during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).
Short Term
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and an indicator showing momentum of NASDAQ downside volume in green. The indicator is plotted on an inverted Y axis decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward. During the rally that began last summer prices have moved upward most quickly when the indicator was also moving upward.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
My favorite ways to invest in Asian and Chinese growth story / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
There's no question that I consider some American companies to be great investments right now. Some have strong business models, defensible niches, and great products. But one thing they don't have going for them is a sound economic backdrop. Unfortunately, the U.S. just isn't roaring ahead right now.
Meanwhile, Asian economies show no sign of slowing down. And that's why I advocate paying attention both to the companies that are based there and the American companies that are doing business there ... the right way. More on that in a moment.
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Monday, January 15, 2007
Invest in Russia - Russian Stock Market Surges 71% in 2006 / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
This is the year I return to Russia — for the first time.My mother's father was born there, but I never met him. He died before I was born — in a New Jersey fire when my mother was just five. Ironically, years earlier, my grandmother suffered a similar fate: Her father died in an accident when she was also just a young girl, in the village of Velozhin, now in Belarus . This double tragedy is a legacy that brings me both gratitude and sorrow. I'm grateful that, unlike my mother and her mother before her, I had the benefit of my loving father by my side for over five decades. But like them, I long to touch base with my roots, which, as fate would have it, have always eluded me.
So a few months ago, I began learning Russian. And a few months from now, I will be in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and one of the small villages of my ancestors. Elisabeth will tour ballroom dance centers and perhaps even compete. I will dig through family archives.
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Saturday, January 13, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 13th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is:
• Many of the major indices closed at or near multiyear or all time highs on Friday.
Short Term
Several of the major indices including the NASDAQ composite (OTC), S&P Mid cap, Russell 2000 (R2K) and Wilshire 5000 were up every day last week. This is a sign of strength that does not occur very often, but, it is also an overbought indication.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Investing in Africa - First buy signal in 22 years ! / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Twenty-two years ago I told investors to clear out of all investments in Africa. I said, “Don't look back. Africa will not recover from colonialism and apartheid for decades.”
That was good advice. Between 1975 and 2001, Africa's per-capita gross domestic product fell an average of .7% per year. Since I issued that all-out sell signal, Africa effectively became a “lost continent.”
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Saturday, January 06, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 6th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is:
• There have been very few new lows on either the NYSE or NASDAQ.
Short Term
Changing volume patterns offer a short term view of what is happening in the market. Unfortunately, volume indicators are easily skewed by seasonal factors.
The chart below covers the last 100 trading days showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and momentum of NASDAQ downside volume (OTC DV) in green. OTC DV is plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing downside volume moves the indicator upward (up is good).
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Thursday, January 04, 2007
Dow Jones Stock Market Shocks during 2007 / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
We've had almost four years of relative calm in the financial markets. Corporate earnings have rebounded from the depths of the 2000 — 2001 stock market collapse. There have been no terror attacks on U.S. soil. Interest rates have remained artificially low.
But now, even as foreign economies are gaining in strength, the U.S. economy's second-breath — as I call it — is ending. Coming next — a series of shocks in the Dow Jones Industrials that could catch investors with their pants down.
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Saturday, December 30, 2006
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 30th Dec 06 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at all time highs last week.
Short Term
It is difficult to make a short term technical assessment of the market at this time of the year because seasonal factors dominate.
Intermediate term
New lows begin to increase as the market approaches a significant top.
Friday, December 29, 2006
FTSE 100 Index stock market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE ended 2006 at 6220.80, up about 11% for the year and up 90% from the 2003 low.
A recap of the FTSE trend during 2006 before the forecast for 2007 - The FTSE started 2006 at 5,618, after having already built on 2 good years so expectations were starting to slacken with many commentators suggesting that the FTSE could decline during 2006. Our forecast at the start of the year was for the FTSE 100 index to rise to 6000 by the end of 2006, so a 3% deviation from the actual year end close.
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Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Emerging Markets outlook for 2007 - India, China, Russia, Eastern Europe and Brazil / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Emerging markets have by and large boomed during 2007. With indices such as India's Sensex up more than 50% on the year, though the year ends on a cautionary note ,given the recent actions by Thailand's regime that sent their stock market reeling. So even though the long-term fundamentals are still strong for India, China, Russia, Brazil etc, the first half of 2007 could become a corrective period for the emerging markets, as they end the year on high valuations and growth expectations. Many investors have only recently started to enter these markets, and they may be disappointed by performances during the first half of 2007. The key here is to invest for the long-term growth so well beyond 2007.
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Emerging Markets - Chinese Red-chips Soar into Orbit, is Gold Next ? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Dow Jones Stock Market forecast for 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Jones forecast for 2007 - If you have followed my last article on the Dow Jones (17th December 06), you will be aware that I am expecting a sharp drop in the stock markets starting January 2007. As the year draws to an end, I am able to further clarify the scenario that the Dow Jones is expected to play out during 2007.
The rally to new highs in the Dow jones and new five year highs in other indices has not been followed by confirmation in the Dow Transports, whilst the rallies have also been accompanied by record low VIX readings, suggesting investor complacency.
Now in the run upto the new year, the media seems to be filling up with stories of how well the stock markets are expected to perform during 2007. Supporting evidence such as soft landing of the US economy, and that 2007 is expected to be the strongest in the presidential cycle. Unfortunately as my article of 22nd October pointed out, the Dow Jones has decided to make ADJUSTMENTS to the presidential cycle, which has significantly negated its overall effect in terms of trend. We basically have enjoyed much of the expected PLUS that's expected during 2007 already in the latter part of 2006 !, So this implies a much weaker 2007.
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Saturday, December 23, 2006
A lesson from History Thailand's stock and currency market compared with 1997 / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
Nine years, five months, and twenty days ago, Thailand revalued its currency, the baht. That one small move ultimately brought down stock markets, currencies, and economies throughout Southeast Asia and the world.
Now, Thailand is in the news again — implementing capital controls on international investors. Those rules would lock up a chunk of foreign investors' funds for a year in an attempt to curb currency speculation. But the circumstances of this new situation couldn't be more different from those of 1997. Instead of being provoked by a strong U.S. currency, Thailand is reacting to a weak dollar. That speaks volumes about just how far the once-mighty greenback has fallen.
Today, I want to look back at the fateful days of the 1997 Asian contagion ... compare it to the current situation ... and, most importantly, explain what it means for your investments.
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Saturday, December 23, 2006
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 100 (OEX) closed at all time highs last Tuesday.
Short Term
During an up market the major indices seldom move downward for more than 3 consecutive days.
The chart below shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and an indicator showing the percentage of the last 3 trading days that have been up. The indicator reaches the top of the screen when there have been 3 consecutive up days and it reaches the bottom of the screen when their have been 3 consecutive down days. The chart covers the past 6 months and has vertical dashed lines drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The SPX was down the last 3 trading days of last week. The last time that happened was in early November which, like last week, was also a seasonally strong period.
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Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Three Markets Trumping the Dow Jones , China, Brazil and Austrailia ! / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Normally, by this time in December, I'd be with Elisabeth's family on our farm in Brazil. But this year, they've decided to come here to spend the holidays with us, and I'm glad they did. I've lived overseas for many years — two years in Japan, twelve in Brazil. I've crisscrossed Europe and Latin America. I've visited Australia and China. And I've loved every moment of it. But never in my lifetime have I been in a country that provides the same combination of opportunity, security and freedom as the United States. So for me, there's no better place to live. But for my investment dollars, it's a different story ...
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Monday, December 18, 2006
Last Warning! Three-Pronged Collapse ... Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Money_and_Markets
Today I want to give you one final warning on the crisis I see coming. I've told you some of this before, but I feel it's so important that it needs to be repeated one last time. Gold's rally back over $600, and recently to more than $640 an ounce, is telling us — in no uncertain terms — that a financial crisis of major proportions is about to strike.
The dollar is telling us the same thing — that the “full faith and credit” of the U.S. Government is plunging ... that all is not well. Just look at how the dollar has been falling against many of the world's currencies ...
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Saturday, December 16, 2006
The VIX forecasts a sharp drop in Share prices in January 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly What is the VIX ? This is an index of implied volatility of the Chicago Board Options on the S&P 500 stock index, The exchange calculates the implied volatility of eight at-the-money or near-the-money strikes (both puts and calls) with a weighted average time to maturity of 30 days. Basically the VIX is a measure of fear in the market. It rises when investors are fearful, as more options are bought, and falls when investors feel less fearful, so buy less options to manage their stock market risk.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Weekly Stock Market Technical Report / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another all time high last week while the Wilshire 5000 and S&P 500 (SPX) hit a multi year highs.
Short Term
Momentum of downside volume is an indicator that works pretty well from time to time. The chart below is an update from last week covering the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in magenta and momentum of NASDAQ downside volume in green. Dashed vertical grey lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. The indicator has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing downside volume pushes the indicator downward (up is good).
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Graphic Illustration That Scam Lovers Are the Real Turkeys - S&P PE Ratio and Earnings / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Jas_Jain
Let me remind everyone that all commentaries on politics, economics and investments are about the behavior of the participants, leaders and the led. For the past dozen years, Americans have displayed clear signs of blind faith in one particular human institution - the so-called stock market, which was turned into the Scam Market via the Scam Options fraud that was initiated by collusion between the Corporate Chieftains and the regulators, the Congress and the SEC, who are supposed to protect the investors. Those who still have faith in the current Scam Market, despite all the abuses that has come to fore, are Scam Lovers.Read full article... Read full article...