Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Review - China Plunge, Dow Jones Index Errors and US Recession / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The week was dominated by Tuesdays sell off in China's Shanghai Index by 9%, and its ripple effect across the Worlds Stock Markets, which saw falls of more than 4% across the board by the end of the week.
We had been warning of the likely hood of a sell off in China for much of February. Several articles preceded the sell off in the stock markets including Mondays US Subprime Mortgages Fallout and Declining Housing Market likely to hit the Stock Market.
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd March 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last Tuesday NASDAQ volume of declining issues (OTC DV) was 24 times the volume of advancing issues (OTC AV). In the past ratios of that magnitude usually occurred near short term lows.
Short Term
Last Tuesday's 24 to 1 ratio of OTC AV / OTC DV ranks 8th highest since 1978, the first year for which I have NASDAQ volume data.
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
The Real Reason for the the Stock Market Falls - Cheap Money from the Bank of Japan / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
If you think stock markets were the only ones that went haywire this week, look again:
The dollar fell sharply, especially against the yen ... Treasury bonds soared, with the long bond gaining almost a point and a half on February 27 alone ... and gold prices swung all over the place.
In other words, volatility went off the charts in almost every market I track. A volatility gauge maintained by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, for example, exploded 63% in a single day, the biggest increase in U.S. market history.
What single force links all this action? What little (or big!) beast could possibly be behind so many seemingly disparate market moves? Here's my answer …
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Saturday, March 03, 2007
Spike in VIX Stock Market volatility - The End Of Complacency? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at the recent upspike in volatility, see if we can connect some dots with the recent slew of earnings downgrades and the problems in the subprime mortgage world, and follow the money as risk is being taken off the table. I don't "buy" the China problem, but there may be an Asian connection. Let's try and keep it simple as we try and see what's behind curtain #3 labeled "Which direction is the stock market headed?"
But first, if you have not signed up for my Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla, California, April 19-21, this week's market action is a perfect reason why you should. Want to get the real lowdown on China? Come listen to one of the premier Asian investment experts, Louis-Vincent Gave, give us his on-the-ground view of Asia.
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Stock Market Falls - What to do now ? / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Hans_Wagner
On Tuesday February 27, 2006, the market once again told everyone that it is in charge with a 3.3% drop in the DJIA. When the market makes a move like it did, the first thing to do is step back and assess your situation. History shows us that significant drops in the market are not the start of a new bear market. There are exceptions; however, we are looking at the probabilities. As a result I do not believe this is a bear market. At least not yet. Days like today are often followed by further declines. Most times falls like this, present buying opportunities over the next few days, sometimes up to weeks.
This fall was caused by several factors including:
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Larry's take on the wild Stock Market and Gold action / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
For months, I've been warning you that U.S. stock markets looked overbought and were headed for a tumble.
And just last week, I said that a Dow close below the 12,242 level “will be your signal that the recent economic strength is rolling over, that investors think corporate earnings have peaked, and that the weakness in the housing sector is really hitting home.”
Friday, March 02, 2007
Dow Jones Index gave 150 point false Index reading on Tuesdays crash - Who profited? / Stock-Markets / Strategic News
By: Brady_Willett
Late Tuesday afternoon, Dow Jones Indexes made a seemingly minor confession about a technical glitch that took place earlier that day. Specifically, in the middle of Tuesday's market decline – beginning at 1:50 pm precisely – Dow Jones Indexes began incorrectly reporting the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow). In other words, instead of displaying say 12,200 - the actual trading level of the 30-Dow components - the Dow was showing 12,350. Ever vigilant, they eventually identified the problem and “switched over to a back-up system” at 3:00PM.
Now there is no question that computers sometimes do err: instances of market miscalculation and/or miscommunication have dotted the financial ledger in the past - like between the futures and cash markets during the crash of 1987. However, and although a potentially innocent event, the interesting thing about Tuesday's computer malfunction is that it persisted without being recognized for 70-minutes! The question to ask, naturally enough, is what on earth was going on during this 70-minute interval?
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Friday, March 02, 2007
Inflation in the pipleline not Deflation - Stock Market is Correcting. / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: David_Petch
According to deflationists, we are at the cusp of a collapse in the money supply. There are two articles I previously published titled "Diatribes of a Deflationist" and "Diatribes of a Deflationist II". I do not like to spew information contained in prior research articles because unless I see any change to an argument it is pointless to regurgitate the same information. As such refer to the archives section of this site under my name to review these and other prior material mentioned below.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Stock Market Meltdown shows Greenspan's 'invisible hand' / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
Tuesdays stock market freefall has Greenspan's bloody fingerprints all over it. And, no, I'm not talking about Sir Alan's crystal ball predictions about the impending recession; that's just more of his same circuitous blather. The real issue is the Fed's suicidal policies of low interest rates and currency deregulation which have paved the way for economic Armageddon. Whether the Chinese stock market contagion persists or not is immaterial; the American economy is headed for the dumpster and it's all because of the wizened former fed-chief, Alan “Great Depression” Greenspan. So, what does the stumbling Chinese stock market have to do with Greenspan?
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
The Ugly Reality of the US Stockmarket - How it suckers retail Investors / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
It doesn't take a great treatise or any "rocket science" to expose the ugly and sordid reality of the true condition of the broad US stockmarket - all it takes is a few charts and a modest helping of common sense.
The reason why the Dow Jones Industrials Average features so prominently in the mainstream financial press is that it is the principal tool used by wholesale vendors of stock to sucker the ordinary retail investor into buying at market tops. The recent past provides a perfect example.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
What's behind the Global Stock market Shake-out? / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
In a keynote speech on February 2nd, in the northern Italian city of Turin, Bank of Italy chief Mario Draghi, warned global stock market operators not to assume that present favorable conditions would last. “It is not realistic to expect that the current orderly market conditions will last forever, we do not know where the next crisis will come from, we must do everything to be prepared,” he said.“Market pricing does not currently incorporate the full range of potential risks. Financial market participants need to take into account in their risk analyses, the full implications of a possible reversal of the current benign conditions, including the possibility of less liquid markets,” he warned.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Stock Markets crash! Here's what to do / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
Yesterday's market crash struck Wall Street like a bat out of hell — the Dow down 416 points, the S&P 500 off 50 points, and Nasdaq pummeled by a whopping 97 points Virtually every investment under the sun — blue chips and tech stocks ... large caps and small caps ... domestic stocks and international stocks — even gold and silver — got hit hard.
But the most dramatic event came at about 3 o'clock in the afternoon Eastern Time: Just when many Wall Street traders figured the worst was over and started packing up to go home, Dow Jones was running into a technical computer glitch. It lost track of the averages and had to catch up suddenly. Result: One moment the Dow was off 200 points; the next it was off another 200 points, and soon, down 546 points!
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Stock Markets follow China Lower - What to expect next as China's crash continues in Asia / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FTSE 100 Index & Major European indices are expected to open sharply lower following on from sharp drops on Tuesday, which saw China's Shanghai index fall by 9% to 2771. The Dow Jones down by more than 3% to 12217, the largest drop since Sept 11th 2001.
All of the major markets broke key technical levels, signaling that the current bear run is likely to continue for some time. At the time of writing, asian stock markets continue to plunge lower on Wednesday morning, with many markets such as Australia and Japan falling further by nearly 4% at mid session.
What to Expect Next ?
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Global Mania is Deflating as China Crashes / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Paul_Lamont
According to a study by Knox and Inkster, a pair of Canadian psychologists, people are much more confident of their horses' chances of winning just after placing a bet, than they are immediately before they lay down the bet. As Robert Cialdini explains, “Of course, nothing about the horses' chances actually shifts; it's the same horse, on the same track, in the same field, but in the mind of the betters, its prospects improve significantly once that ticket is purchased. Once a stand has been taken, the need for consistency pressured these people to bring what they felt and believed in line with what they had already done.”
Markets are cyclical. Unfortunately, investors that stay fully invested, diversified, and ‘consistent' until the end of this bear market will lose most of their funds. In our last article , we concluded that a greater than 50% correction in the Chinese indexes over the next 2-3 years was highly probable. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.8%, the most in 10 years. The downside percentage decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be similar and will be detailed further in our next article.
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Monday, February 26, 2007
S&P Index Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
Last week I stated: We now have the potential of either seeing a final diagonal that the forum has been alerted to for months now, or an acceleration that will have most traders on the wrong side and flat broke within days. I haven't changed a thing about my view, but I'm not going to force a position if the market's out to get me. As members already know, I'm prepared to trade both ends of the trend.
Many weeks ago I had an upside target of 1472, and since last Monday's post, the target has been adjusted to 1462/1470. At this point that level is very doable, but much higher than that won't be a good thing for short traders.
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Sunday, February 25, 2007
Immediate Global Stock Market Investment Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin here with a special gala edition based on our just-completed global teleconference — one of the most popular of all time.
We had four international experts on the line — myself in North America, Larry Edelson in Asia, Joseph Weiss in South America and Claus Vogt in Europe.
We had precisely 5,071 investors registered to call in.And the incoming call volume was so intense, it even overwhelmed one of the best, most robust teleconference providers in America.
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 24th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major averages hit all time or multiyear highs last week.
Short Term
The picture is mixed. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell for 3 consecutive days after hitting a multiyear high last Tuesday.
The chart below covers the last 6 months showing the SPX in red and an indicator that shows the percentage of the last 3 trading days that were up in black. In the past 6 months the SPX has not fallen for more than 3 consecutive days. Except for the occurrence at the end of last year, each time there have been 3 consecutive down days it marked a short term low.
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
Warning China's Stock Market will Crash this year / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Marty_Chenard
Let me say this very simply ...
China's Stock Market will Crash sometime this year .
After listening to CNBC applaud the historic rise in the Shanghai index, I was elated to see the responsible reporting that the Los Angeles Times did on the subject. Staff writer Don Lee wrote the article in with the help of Cao Jun in the Shanghai Bureau. My congrats to them for writing a timely and informative piece that the rest of the media is avoiding.
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Friday, February 23, 2007
Gold Stocks Versus Crude Oil Stocks Forecast / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed 0.50% higher on Thursday, Feb. 22, to finish the day at 356.34 while the XAU was 0.16% higher at 146.05. The spot gold index closed at $379 while spot silver closed Thursday at $14.22.
In my Feb. 5 commentary on the natural resource stocks I wrote, "Although some of the XAU's price oscillators are slowly inching into positive territory and are no longer 'oversold,' the primary consideration right now isn't overbought versus oversold. It's the strongly rising internal momentum from a 90-day rate of change standpoint.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Building a Better BRIC ETF - Brazil, Russia, India and China Investment / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
In a 2003 research paper Goldman Sachs argued that the combination of countries Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) has the economic potential to be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms by 2050. The countries are forecast to encompass over 40% of the world's population and hold a combined GDP of nearly $15 trillion dollars.
Goldman predicts China and India will be dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services and that Brazil and Russia will be dominant suppliers of raw materials. Brazil and Russia would form logical commodity suppliers to China and India; cooperation amongst the four countries would create a powerful economic block.
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