Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The EU Referendum according to the opinion polls is too close to call as illustrated by the most recent opinion polls and resulting momentum analysis that literally puts the vote on a knife edge. However the same does not hold true for the bookmakers or financial markets that are apparently assuming that a REMAIN outcome is a done deal which is set against my forecast conclusion for Brexit, from someone who correctly called both the 2015 General Election that the pollsters got so badly wrong and the 2014 Scottish referendum.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Stock Market Just Before the BrExit Vote / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Donald_W_Dony

Though the conversation surrounding the outcome of the EU referendum continues to heat-up, during the last 36 hours, the market has already decided on which side is going to win.

Two key defensive elements, in particular, are pulling back as the final count down unfolds.

The Volatility Index or VIX, after a brief surge in early June, has backed-off and dropped into a more moderate risk level.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Stock Market on Verge of Melt Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

July 5th keeps coming back as an important cycle low for the stock market.  The recent daily Bollinger Bands on the SPX shows increasing constriction, which in the past pointed to a possible melt down, similar to what we saw from August 18-24, 2015.  This time around we have the same 115 TD’s from January 20, 2016 to July 5th that we had from March 11, 2015 to August 24, 2015. July 5th is also an important Bradley turn on a new moon.  Another similar Bradley turn occurs on another new moon November 29, 2016, which I believe will likely be another important low this year.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

SPX May Break Its Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has been climbing the Bearish Flag trendline. It may be broken at 2088.00 should SPX continue its decline today.

It may take another day to decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average. It may accelerate if today’s polls show Brexit gaining strength.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Stock Market Hybrid Lindsay Low: June 27-July 1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

After last week’s failed call for a “relief rally” it becomes harder to accept bullish signals as seen in the McClellan Oscillator this week. There is the possibility of a micro-cycle high on/near Tuesday which gives the possibility of a 1-2 day rally but the next micro-cycle low is due June 29 which matches the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a low near then which is outlined below.  

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

BrExit Poll Nonsense... Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

We were all waiting for this Brexit situation to come and go this coming Thursday evening. Then a small sample poll was taken late yesterday and it showed a 70% vote in favor of Britain staying. The futures across the world went nuts to the up side. Europe had many countries up over 3%. Some approaching 4%. Amazing what a small poll can bring out in terms of froth. A market that wants higher will use any excuse to rock itself higher. You can also add in Kurota from Japan saying last night that more easing is on the way. None of it has worked, but that won't stop his desperation. The market got enough frothing news to rock itself up, except in the end the candles were weak today.

Monday, June 20, 2016

FTSE Soars, Stock Markets Bounce on LEAVE Polls Surge, Bookmakers Widen BrExit Odds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The first string of opinion polls following the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox apparently in the name of "Freedom for Britain" or "Britain First" have now swung markedly in REMAINs favour, reversing an earlier LEAVE polls lead with REMAIN now marginally ahead on 45% against LEAVE on 42% with 13% Don't Knows as the following list of recent polls illustrates that until the killing of Jo Cox LEAVE had been in the lead but now have LOST that lead due to the actions of a radicalised right-wing extremist.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Stock Market Week Of Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: A lengthy correction is most likely underway!

SPX Intermediate trend:  The British referendum could have a significant impact on the intermediate trend. 

 Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Stock Market, Miners Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week was one of our best profit weeks since March. We caught the short in the stock market from June 15 into the 16th and the GDX short into Friday where we went to all cash.  Originally, my thinking was that we would see a June 17th bottom in the stock market, but perhaps as late as July 5th.  Now I’m fairly certain that date is July 5th.  My SPX target is now into the low 1910’s for July 5th.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Bonds And Stocks At All-Time Highs: Are Markets Confused Or Broken? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: InvestingHaven

We observe odd trends in the market, the most important one being Treasuries and stocks both trading near all-time highs. That is definitely not ‘normal’ (whatever that term means nowadays), as bonds stand for ‘risk off’ (a safe haven asset) while stocks are only performing in a ‘risk on’ environment.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Stock Market Inflection Point During Bifurcation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2096. After hitting SPX 2098 in the first hour of trading on Monday the market dropped to 2064 by Tuesday. A rally followed into Wednesday on the FOMC meeting, and the market hit SPX 2086 minutes after the FOMC statement. Then the market pulled back again, gapped down to open Thursday, and hit SPX 2050 before rallying to 2080 into the close. Friday saw a lower open as the market dropped to SPX 2063, then bounced to close the week at 2071. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.90%. Economic reports for the week were again mostly positive. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: the NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, building permits, the Q2 GDP est., export/import prices, retail sales, business inventories, and the CPI/PPI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by FED chair Yellen’s semiannual economic report to Congress, Durable goods orders and more Housing reports.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Nasdaq Underperforming Again....Brexit Is Next Up... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The most interesting thing to take away from the past two years of going nowhere has been the continued, under-performance of those tech stocks everyone loves to own. For the most, and there have been small periods of exceptions, the Nasdaq has been the place big money doesn't want to go very often. The focus has been on safety plays. Lower risk plays with lower P/E's. Lower valuations over risk simply, because valuations are so out of line with reality. Tech stocks have those higher valuations, and quite often those higher valuations have led to some nasty blood baths.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Stock Market On the Brink? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made an impulse down and may be finishing the retracement as I write. Instead of the 50-day acting as resistance we now have the mid-Cycle resistance at 2076.32 in its place. Stock options “mature” at 3:00 pm, so there may be a let-down into the close.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Brexit: "The Vote Heard Around the World" / Stock-Markets / EU_Referendum

By: EWI

Our new free report gives you our well-researched opinion on Brexit -- and the markets

The campaign for the June 23 referendum on whether or not Britain should remain a member of the European Union has just hit a horrific milestone. CNBC reports that,

Friday, June 17, 2016

Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is struggling to stay near yesterday’s closing price for the close of index options at the open this morning. Today is Quadruple Witching day, which has the probability of being very volatile.

ZeroHedge writes, “Traders are still stunned by the dramatic move in risk assets during yesterday's US session. As a reminder, at the lows for the day in the mid-morning Eastern Time, we saw the DAX at -1.81%, FTSE -1.13%, S&P500 -1.03%, US 10y yield 1.516% (lowest since August 2012) and GBPUSD 1.401. By the various closes these rallied to -0.59%, -0.27%, +0.31%, 1.580% and 1.420 respectively!

Friday, June 17, 2016

Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

Do you remember the ‘70s, and the all-star disaster films like the Towering Inferno and the Poseidon Adventure? As interest rates and gas prices soared, we “escaped” to the theatre to watch these big disaster films. 

You will remember in the Poseidon Adventure that a luxury liner traveling from New York to Athens is broadside by a huge rogue wave set off by an underwater earthquake. The entire ship is turned upside down.  Reverend Scott (Gene Hackman) surmises that the solution is to be found by climbing upwards to the stern, where the ship’s propellers are now the highest point on the ship. Robin (Eric Shea) is a young man interested in ships and tells Scott that the hull is only 1 inch thick near the propeller shaft.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Flash Crash - Stock Market May See a Large Move Overnight / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It now appears that the 50-day Moving Average at 2077.32 is the probable target for this afternoon’s bounce. By 4:00 pm, this entire cycle from 2120.55 to today’s top will have taken 43 hours.

It’s time to prepare for a flash crash.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stock Market Second Leg of the Retracement On Its Way / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX may finish the second leg (Wave [c]) of its retracement at 2085.00 by the end of the day. The target is precisely where [c] equals [a]. This is a very orderly pattern, for once!

If you have gone to cash this morning, you may wish to go short by the end of the day.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Lee

The roulette game all started in the fall of 2014, about 2 years after Chairman Xi Jinping came to power and became the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

Xi Jinping had campaigned for socialist economic reform, including a sweeping anti-corruption drive, cutting excess production capacity, tightening of housing credit, and clamping down on gaming in Macau. Public feedback was initially positive. However, largely as a result of those policies, Beijing was facing an increasingly grim economic growth outlook which was the worst in more than two decades*.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,120, and profit target at 2,000, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral