Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 15, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Increasing Risks for Stock Market CRASH 2021 - AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio.
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Sunday, August 15, 2021
Financial System Liquidity Alarm / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Market liquidity is draining from different vantage points
On Wednesday I made a post that showed the “metallic credit spread” (as coined by Bob Hoye) known as the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) flipped on its head (to Silver/Gold) to indicate a dangerous situation for the S&P 500, if past is prologue. Here is that post and here is the Tweet that followed…
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Thursday, August 12, 2021
Could a Collapse of Cryptocurrencies Force a Reform of the Global Monetary System? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Steve_H_Hanke
For thousands of years, there has been a dominant international currency. Until August 15, 1971, when President Nixon closed the gold window and revoked the right of foreign governments to redeem their dollar assets for gold, all the dominant currencies had either been gold or silver coins, or paper notes or accounts that were redeemable for gold or silver.
Historically, these dominant currencies would come and go, with their demise typically being the result of wars and war finance. The United States dollar supplanted the British pound, which had been the world’s dominant currency in the 19th century, at the onset of the First World War.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2021
Nasdaq Rallied To New All-Time Highs – Are We Starting Another Bullish Rally Phase? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the Fed’s comments in support of the US economy and the transitory nature of the recent inflation, the NASDAQ rallied to new all-time highs and closed at $15,167.75 on August 5, 2021. If the markets fall back into the “melt-higher” mode as we move away from Q2:2021 earnings, we may be setting up for a moderately big rally phase targeting $15,400 or higher in the NQ.
Global Traders Continue To Bank On A Rally In US Equities
Global traders have poured billions into the US markets over the past 4+ years as the US Federal Reserve has continued to act as the global banker of last resort. Because of this, global traders continue to invest in US equities as the strength of the US Dollar and the incredible post-Covid rally in the markets has blown past everyone’s expectations.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Here’s What You Should Do About Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler - “What should I do about inflation?”My Uber driver recently asked me this after I told her what I do for a living.
And she’s not the only one asking me this question.
My mom… brother… friends who’ve never bought a stock in their lives… and many of you who read my essays every week want to know the same thing:
Why are pricing soaring? Should I do anything to prepare?
And most importantly…
What should I do with my current investments?
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Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Stock Market Dichotomy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX should now have reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Sunday, August 08, 2021
Are Stock Markets Ready For An August Surprise? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing that seems to be certain in the markets right now is the past hyper-bullish trending which appears to have weakened since early 2021. As a result, the longer-term Custom Indexes we use to help gauge and understand market trends are showing a very clear weakening of trends.
In this article, we are going to review three of our custom index charts on a weekly chart basis, the Custom US Stock Market Index, the Smart Cash Global Market Index, and the Custom Volatility Index. Each of these charts highlights something unique related to current market trends.
Use this information to read between the line and to help establish your own expectations for the markets going forward. We’ll provide our conclusion near the end of this research article.
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Thursday, August 05, 2021
We Will See SPX 4600 In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
As we came into 2021, I outlined to those willing to listen that I expected at least a 20% continuation rally in the SPX, and I would prefer for us to strike at least the 4600SPX region this year. And, at the time, the SPX was in the 3750SPX region.
Thus far, the market has provided us with an 18% rally in 2021, and I still expect us to rally to 4600SPX this year. The question that we are answering over the coming weeks is simply a matter of the path to 4600SPX.
Now, as usual, I take the time to read other articles on Seeking Alpha to glean some of the thinking within the market. And, amongst the articles calling the market a “bubble” or “wrong,” as well as several others attempting to call the top yet again, there are a few issues I would like to address.
First, I have been reading many analysts viewing this rally as the Covid “recovery” rally. And, it really makes me scratch my head.
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Thursday, August 05, 2021
Revisiting The Excess Phase Stock Market Peak Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2). If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently moving moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trends in the near future.
Please take a minute to review our earlier research posts related to the Excess Phase Peak setup (below) and how it related to the current market trend:
- November 25, 2020: HOW TO SPOT THE END OF AN EXCESS PHASE – PART I
- November 27, 2020: HOW TO SPOT THE END OF AN EXCESS PHASE – PART II
- May 20, 2021: BITCOIN COMPLETES PHASE #3 OF EXCESS PHASE TOP PATTERN – WHAT NEXT?
Thursday, August 05, 2021
Dramatic Divergence between US and European Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: EWI
This chart shows a "dramatic divergence" between U.S. and European stocks
Cryptocurrencies and so-called meme stocks have certainly received a lot of attention from investors.
Another investment category that has been in favor recently is European equities. No, they may not be quite as "hot" as, say, bitcoin -- but they've been receiving more attention than usual.
Let's start with some recent headlines:
- U.S. investors are pouring money into European stock funds (Marketwatch, May 27)
- European Stocks Are Coming In From the Cold (Bloomberg, June 17)
- It's a Good Time to Invest in Europe (Kiplinger, June 24)
Monday, August 02, 2021
Stock Market Intermediate Top Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has now reached its next intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Friday, July 30, 2021
The Inadvertent Debt/Inflation Trap – Is It Time for the Stock Market To Face The Music? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
What happens to a global economy after 10+ years of global central bank efforts to support a recovery attempt after a massive credit/debt collapse originates from a prior credit/debt housing bubble? What happens to global economies when they become addicted to easy money policies and central bank activities that support greater and greater risk-taking? What is the end result of these actions after more than 10+ years of excess and central bank support for the markets?
Let’s play this out a bit to think about how the current market environment may be similar to what happened in the mid/late 1990s and see if we can come to any real conclusions. Remember, we are using our research and technical analysis skills to play a “what if” scenario in this research article. Our current trading systems have not warned us of any major Bearish price trends of price collapses that may take place. Our systems are still trading the US markets based on current market trends. This research is completely speculative in the sense that we are trying to identify “what if” scenarios based on events in the recent past.
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Friday, July 30, 2021
Fed Stocks Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
It was a rather pedestrian FOMC Statement day on Wednesday. There is GDP data incoming, and the widely Fed-followed Core PCE Price Index data comes out on Friday. What can we take away from the FOMC Statement and press conference?
Rates unchanged. No rush to raise interest rates. Inflation should persist.
No surprises here.
However, there was some notable price action in the US Dollar Index during Wednesday’s session. The US Dollar Index initially rose on the FOMC statement at 2:00 PM. During the press conference, the USD fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation should persist for several months. It is noteworthy price action and can be a forward-looking indicator for the direction of other asset prices.
Thursday, July 29, 2021
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
See how stock investors' "historic optimism" served as a warning
After a 12-year uptrend, just when caution might be in order, investor psychology has remained highly and stubbornly optimistic.
As the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides Elliott wave analysis of major U.S. financial markets, said:
Large traders are more exuberant than ever. On June 11, large trader buy-to-open call purchases jumped to 45%, a new record.
A highly bullish outlook was also expressed in this July 10 Marketwatch headline:
The bull market in stocks may last up to five years -- here are six reasons why
Notice that the headline's suggestion is that the bull market has just started.
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Thursday, July 29, 2021
Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The first half of 2021 did not play out as hoped by precious metals investors. Despite the effort to “squeeze” the bullion banks, silver has yet to push through the $30 barrier, and gold remains below the high put in nearly a year ago.
The effort has been valiant. Demand for physical bullion is unprecedented.
However, the paper markets, where price discovery is purportedly done, remain untethered to physical supply and demand.
It will take more than physical demand to break the back of the banking regime which dominates the paper markets.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed’s manipulation of the money supply and its cost has served to obliterate the function of asset price discovery, just as it has also caused the middle and lower classes to reduce their standard of living. Since a greater percentage of their falling real incomes goes to the purchase of food and energy--the things most effected by money printing--the wealth gap, which the fed avows to care about, has become greatly exacerbated.After foolishly and desperately pursuing inflation many years, the dog finally caught the truck. But predictably, the freedom killers at the FOMC are coming to realize inflation is easily tractable on both ends of the spectrum. Its asinine 2% inflation goal was meant to be a ceiling when first proposed; but was underachieved for many years. However, that level has now been transcended by leaps and bounds. The evil inflation genie was released out of the bottle and putting it back in will entail destroying the stock market and economy as a direct consequence. In other words, it took trillions upon trillions of helicopter dollars to get inflation and asset prices where they are today. And unless the Treasury and Fed assent to doing that same thing on a more consistent basis, asset prices and the economy should succumb to a deflationary meltdown next year. A Pyrrhic victory over inflation is the best we can hope for.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2021
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Looking back to the early part of the week, we all saw something that should not shock anyone who is actually thinking in an intellectually honest manner about the market.You see, the market saw a nice drop on Monday. And, the news media was at the forefront "explaining" how the market fears regarding the Delta variant of Covid is what caused the decline, and would likely take it much lower. It made me wonder if they polled all the market participants to come up with that reason for the decline, or if they simply made it up as they go?
Well, I think it is quite clear that they simply made it up as they go, which is what they always do. And, investors were quite eager to foolishly adopt their reasoning as usual. Did you?
At some point, investors have to begin thinking for themselves and ignore what they are fed about the market (pun intended). Most of the reasons we believe the markets move are based upon pure fallacy. Those that propagate those fallacies are never burdened by the actual facts. Rather, whatever the news of the day seems to fit the narrative of the market direction is utilized as a reason for a market move, even if it is wholly untrue.
Tuesday, July 27, 2021
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.SPX Intermediate trend: SPX May wat to push all the way to the top projection before making an important correction.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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