Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, July 02, 2021
Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed for a "Bumpy Ride" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Money losers tend to be high-beta issues"On Friday, June 25, the Russell indexes underwent their annual rebalancing.
In other words, stocks were moved from the Russell indexes like the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 based on their size.
This event usually coincides with a big jump in trading volume -- like it did on June 25 -- but generally it's an annual occurrence of little note.
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Thursday, July 01, 2021
Stock Market Bull Run Ignoring Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reached new highs powered by technology, even as value or Russell 2000 took a daily breather. With VIX going nowhere, and the put/call ratio turning complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher, and not even emerging markets are derailed by the strong dollar. While yesterday‘s stock market upswing was a defensive one as the credit markets and tech internals reveal, there is little to upset the cart – Thursday‘s ISM manufacturing will probably show solid expansion, and it would be only Friday‘s non-farm payrolls (better said what effect these could have on the Fed‘s labor market rationale for keeping the punch bowl available) to bring about volatile trading.
With the Fed support intact and fiscal one not retreating either, with inflation expectations not spiking, the current data are disregarded to a degree. Incorrectly in my view as Friday‘s:
(…) PCE deflator ... figure aligned with the inflation camp much better, yet the marketplace arguably expects better inflation data ahead - the transitory inflation thesis is the mainstream one, but I‘m still of the opinion that inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated.
The Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation even according to El-Erian, and its monetary actions support both the Treasury markets and the red hot real estate. The lull in Treasuries is likely to last into the autumn, and the ensuing yields increase would reflect both the economic recovery and newfound appreciation of inflation. I maintain we‘re still in a reflation – a period of economic growth stronger than inflation – in a multi-year economic expansion, and also that inflation will surprise those considering it transitory (as if this word had any meaning still attached, after all the time length redefinitions). As a side note, if only consumer price inflation was measured without substitution, hedonistic adjustments, and owner‘s equivalent rent. In this environment, tech is unlikely to be derailed, and value will play catch up.
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
How Central Banks Murdered the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Michael_Pento
The Japanese Government Bond market is nearly $10 trillion in size. It is the 2nd biggest bond market in the world. However, it comes as a shock that this humongous market barely trades any longer.The government of Japan has systematically supplanted and killed the entire private market for its bonds. Meaning, there are almost no private investors who will touch it any more. The Bank of Japan has bought so much debt that it forced interest rates below zero percent back in 2016; and the result is the free market has subsequently died.
Investors are now refusing to buy JGBs, which are guaranteed to lose principal in nominal terms—and deeply negative results after adjusting for inflation. But at the same time, are not in any hurry to sell their existing holdings because they understand the government will be propping up bond prices.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2021
Jumping the Fed Tightening Ship / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 powered higher after the daily pause, yet its solid gains don‘t have such a risk-on feel as the credit markets do. Depending on tech heavyweights for the lion‘s share of gains isn‘t though an immediate concern – the market breadth is slowly improving after value stocks were bombed out post-FOMC. Signs of life are returning, facilitated by the Fed‘s $8.1T and growing reasons to celebrate, so don‘t be spooked too many lower knots in VIX when there is no panic in the options arena either.
As tech-reliant as the S&P 500 is, the path of least resistance is still higher – and in the same way (tight trailing stop-loss) Nasdaq could be approached too, so as to protect our open profits while letting them grow.
PCE deflator readings often come below CPI thanks to the „weighted substitution effect“ at play, and it would come back to haunt the Fed. Taken to extremes, you downgrade from a steak to a hamburger, and then what? Cat or dog food? Obviously, this measure is favorable to the Fed as it defers the taper speculation further to the future.
Together with the redefinition of how long transitory used to last earlier, and what transitory (inflation) means now, the central bank wins in leaving the punch bowl available for longer (the job market offerrs plenty of excuses too). If last week gave us any lesson, it was that market players are all too quick to sell both the winners and losers. The spike in Treasuries was a clear warning sign of stress.
Monday, June 28, 2021
Stock Market Final try at SPX 4310? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, June 28, 2021
Trustpac Review / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade
By: S_N_Chatterjee
About Trustpac
Trustpac is an online trading platform covering over 2,000 tradable assets, including a wide range of cryptocurrencies. A place designed so traders will be able to invest with confidence, this is one of the few brands that are offering access to all their trading features for all customers, requiring only a $250 initial deposit to get started.
Regardless of trading strategy or style, this platform can fit the needs of a diversified audience. Customers will be able to use over 70 technical indicators, thousands of charts, client sentiment indicators, price alerts, and even the Social Trading feature. Let’s see what other benefits you can get when opening an account with Trustpac.
Sunday, June 27, 2021
Market Bubbles Galore / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: MoneyMetals
Is the entire financial system currently in a massive bubble? That is the question that astute investors may now be asking.
According to Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, now is the time to be overweight gold as more bubbles pop up.
Stocks, bonds, crypto, tech, real estate, whatever sector you want to focus on – these all appear to now be building into or rapidly falling from bubble territory.
The higher these markets do ascend, the greater the eventual fall may be.
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Friday, June 25, 2021
Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020. Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.
The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2). If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.
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Thursday, June 24, 2021
"Everybody's Getting Rich (and Having Fun) Except Me" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
The idea of "missing out" on stock market gains "literally generates fear in many people"
Hardly anyone wants to miss the party -- whether on Wall Street or elsewhere.
Thus, the acronym FOMO -- which stands for the "fear of missing out" -- is in vogue. After a 12-years long bull market, the acronym has appeared in many financial articles.
Yet, the acronym was coined years before the current bull market.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2021
Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by the as of late usual tech suspect – the heavyweights though merely defended gained ground. Coupled with the credit market perspectives, it was a clear risk-on day as evidenced by the VIX and put/call ratio. The markets have turned on a dime, ignoring the Fed messaging of prior week as shown in the surging CRB index, reversing dollar and Treasuries:
(…) Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.
The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too.
Tuesday, June 22, 2021
Stock Market Correction Starting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX Fell short of its base projection and turned down from 4257
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Friday, June 18, 2021
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Mike_Paulenoff
I am going to look at a few markets (ES, Gold, DXY) that have reacted significantly to the Fed's "message" from yesterday afternoon. What's the message? Here's my synopsis:
After pumping $8 trillion into the economy since March 2020 to provide the necessary stimulus to emerge from the pandemic lockdown, growth is relatively strong, inflation is finally above our 2% benchmark-- though probably will prove to be a transient blip, but the labor market remains well-below Full Employment... So we think we might need to raise the Fed funds rate a measly 25 basis points at the end of 2022, and maybe another measly 25 basis points at the beginning of 2023. In the interim, nothing really will change.
If my synopsis of what the Fed said yesterday (remember, they didn't DO anything) is reasonably on point, then we see a host of previously one-way markets reacting to "the news" with counter-trend moves that should prove to be a healthy refresher of their still powerful dominant trends.
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Friday, June 18, 2021
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here is my updated AI stocks table with buying levels to capitalise upon during the anticipated stock market correction. In terms of overall valuations the portfolio is a little more expensive today than at my last update with some individual stocks very overbought so should be primed for a correction during May as I first flagged to expect in my analysis of 9th of Feb.
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Thursday, June 17, 2021
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 3 of my recent extensive analysis focused on updated buying levels for my AI tech stocks portfolio going into the summer stock market correction, of what I will be looking to accumulate at what price levels.
Part 1 covered Tesla, ARK Funds and more - TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS!
Part 2 covered The Top 5 AI stocks trend analysis - Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations
Whilst the whole of this extensive analysis AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
Contents:
- TESLA
- Cathy Wood ARK Funds CRASH!
- India Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh
- Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019!
- Stock Market Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast
- Stocks Expensive or Cheap Indicator (EC)
- AI Stock Buy % Rating Review
- 1. GOOGLE - $2398
- 2. AMAZON - $3312
- 3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
- 4. APPLE - $130
- 5. FACEBOOK - $320
- 6. NVIDIA - $592.5
- 7. AMD - $78.8
- 11. IBM - $145.5
- 12. INTEL - $57.7
- AI Stocks Buying Levels Update May 2021
- So what am I going to do
- GPU Mining FREE MONEY!
- CHIA Crypto Farming with Your Hard Drives Insanity!
Thursday, June 17, 2021
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 hasn‘t extended Monday‘s gains, continuing to trade in a cautious, tight range. Not that it would be driven by Treasury yields that much on a daily basis – the tech breather was one day delayed, but still didn‘t erase Monday‘s gains in full. Yes, Nasdaq didn‘t reverse, and I‘m looking for it to reassert its strength in spite of having approached the rising resistance line connecting the Feb and Apr highs.
Sure, a little rotation later today wouldn‘t be unimaginable as I am looking for the Fed to largely bypass bringing up taper, which would mean continued ostrich pose when faced with rising inflation (did you see yesterday‘s PPI beating expectations? Another confirmation of my Monday‘s points of inflation being baked in the cake, and in spite of all the transitory rhetoric, working its way through the system as reliably as water through Titanic‘s compartments. The coming Fed disappointment in doing the right thing (fighting inflation even as late as it is now before the expectations become obviously unanchored, eventually turning velocity of money around).
Let‘s check my Monday‘s assumptions and where we stand in the run up to today‘s FOMC:
(…) Paring the bets is getting underway before this week‘s FOMC – the Fed is perceived to perhaps want to at least start debating taper, if not present the sketch of its seriously watered down shape. They‘ll make taper hints and noises at most, it would be much ado about nothing – the markets are just getting spooked now, most notably the dollar (having risen on the unreasonable expectation something palpable and material would come out of that – but remember, talk is cheap, and Jackson Hole is the more likely venue and time that would happen, with 2022 most probably being the year of taper).
The yields reprieve … I see lasting through the summer. Autumn, that would be another cup of tea – apart from the unyielding $CRB index, rising oil prices affecting sectors beyond transportation, and the job market heating up (hiring difficulties), the serene period in Treasuries would be over. Yes, that means I think the bond markets have it wrong with their sudden appreciation, and that equities and commodities are right not to tumble.
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I asked you in my last article if you were more concerned with name calling than with profiting from the market. So, I was wondering if you gave it any more thought, and if you had come to a conclusion?
If not, well, let's discuss this a bit further.
Everyone today is so concerned about "inflation." Yet, everyone seems to be arguing as to whether we are experiencing inflation today. Some claim that this is true inflation, whereas others claim that it is simply transitory.
My personal opinion resides on the transitory spectrum of this issue, and I believe that over the next 6-12 months we will see the shortages easing, especially in the labor force, as we stop paying people to stay at home. But to be honest, I don't care whether my opinion is right or wrong on this issue, as it does not help me make money in the stock market.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?
Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is approaching its intermediate top projection of ~4310.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, June 14, 2021
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As inflation continues to heat up, gold and silver markets are once again on the verge of breaking out.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released much-anticipated Consumer Price Index data. The CPI came in at a full 5.0% year over year through May.
The so-called “core” rate, which excludes food and energy, showed an annual increase of 3.8%. That represents the biggest jump since all the way back in 1992.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials continue to downplay the inflation threat. They insist the recent surge is transitory and doesn’t reflect a major trend to come.
But as Denver’s local 9NEWS reported, not all economists are echoing the Fed’s messaging on inflation.
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Monday, June 14, 2021
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 shook off another record making inflation reading, and bond markets couldn‘t be happier. Volatility is back down, but the option traders turned cautious – that‘s fodder for the next upswing eventually. Many signs are pointing towards it – emerging markets rising with the dollar on the defensive, for example. Yes, the dollar with yields are key to watch now.
S&P 500 was led higher by Nasdaq, which more than welcomed further retreat in yields. The tech led rally is here, and value while not down and out, is taking a breather. Especially financials don‘t like the move in yields, and we aren‘t at the 1.40% mark on 10-year Treasury bond yet. The summer lull in bonds is here, and my views on inflation getting permanently elevated, Fed‘s taper plays, bond yields retreat, inflation rearing its ugly head later this year before a growth scare strikes, can be found in the Latest Highlights and this week‘s articles amply discussed.
So, stocks don‘t look like retreating, as the bond market momentum doesn‘t favor much downside, and tech would likely overpower that.
Let‘s briefly check the reactions of other markets to yesterday‘s well telegraphed CPI springboard theme in stocks and precious metals.