Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Many Are Still Betting on a Calm Stock Market. We're Not / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: EWI
Here's one good reason why: a historic market sentiment extreme
The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ are struggling to bounce. Yet the bullish convictions remain high. Says a February 5 Investor's Business Daily headline:
"Why Mutual Fund Investors Need Not Panic After January Sell-Off"
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Resilient Sentiment Helps Stock Market Grind Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Ronan Keenan writes: The grind higher continued for stocks on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 just 40 basis points from recouping the year’s losses. This year’s trough was 6.1%, the steepest drawdown since late-2012, but it’s starting to seem a distant memory. Yet nothing has fundamentally changed to incite the recovery over the last couple of weeks. Then again, nothing really changed to start the selloff in January.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Ugly Scenario Epiphany & Forecast Formula / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The rabbit hole was detected long ago, leading to multiple examples of Jackass epiphany. Many clients and inquisitive followers have asked how and when the conspiracy and deep plots were recognized. A sequence occurred to produce the newfound awareness, in certain key events that reeked of suspicion, sabotage, and bad economics. The awareness began around 1990, confirmed in 2000 & 2001 with the stock bust and 911 crime scene, solidified with Lehman in 2008. The steady policy decisions were so destructive, ordered by intelligent men, that they had to be intentional. The hints were many. Certain friends, certain acquaintances, certain service veterans, certain business veterans all contributed to a perspective that has proved valuable. When the Vietnam War ended, when the Middle East hot spot never went away, when the American industry began to be dispatched to the Pacific Rim, when labor unions went too far, when presidential politics became absurd displays of Manchurian candidates, when the United States required a procession of fabricated enemies, when the financial sector boasted of victorious superiority, when the American diet turned into a carnival fantasy, when the American public turned into health freaks and Big Pharma subjects, when the genocide projects came to the fore, when the US Press turned into a propaganda megaphone, when technology was directed toward fascist forces, the Jackass had challenges in life and in industry blessed by certain accomplishments but also beset by frustations as well.
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Investing Lay of the Land / Stock-Markets / Investing 2014
By: Don_Miller
Building your nest egg and managing it successfully takes more work than it did six years ago, but it isn’t a Sisyphean task. You can build a portfolio that will last the rest of your life.
Waiting for the political class to come to its senses is futile.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Stock Market SPX Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX could not fill its final open gap at 1844.86. It now appears that it is breaking down. The first support is at 1830.00. If that doesn’t hold, there may be a short bounce at the 50-day moving average at 1810.99. There is nothing but free-fall beneath the 50-day.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Stock Market New Uptrend Still in Doubt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - New uptrend still in doubt
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Relentless Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market opened the week at SPX 1797, dipped to 1792 early Monday, then rallied with only one notable pullback to 1842 by Friday. And all this occurred during market hours, as the only gap opening on the week was a lower one on Thursday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.3%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9%, and the DJ World index rose 2.4%. On the economic front negative reports again outpaced positive ones. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, export/import prices and the M1-multiplier. On the downtick: retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, the WLEI, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims increased. Next week we get reports on the NY/Philly FED, the CPI/PPI and Housing.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Dow and Nikkei Stock Index Elliott Wave Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Dan_Stinson
There has been extensive discussion on the relationship between the Nikkei and the DOW, especially after the recent decline for the Nikkei. The three charts below illustrate the relationship and suggest that we could see a DOW top while the Nikkei completes wave (2) up. The overlay chart below illustrates that the Nikkei and the DOW have topped out together and within months of each other since the bear market began for the Nikkei in 1990.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Is Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market (Dow) last week confounded the heights of a another new bear market rhetoric by bouncing to close decidedly back above 16k at 16,154, this despite a week of bad economic data such as a suprise fall in industrial production of 0.3% against expectations for a 0.2% increase (polar vortex bad weather effect). Off course for the perma-bear crowd the weeks rally just represents a minor correction to further short into. Therefore was last weeks rally a last gasp before the great bear market resumes? Or was it the end of what amounts to a relatively minor correction that signals the resumption of the stocks 'stealth' bull market?
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Stock Market Moving Vertically...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
So what more can I really add. I can stop this letter right here by simply stating we're in a bull market that still has concerns with regards to sentiment to some degree. Not as bad as one month ago, but still concerns. Ok, letter over. Anything I add from here isn't going to be earth shattering. The market continues to defy logic from a fundamental perspective. Yes, we're still in Disneyland. The worse off the economy is the better it is for the stock market. A not so great economy equals the continuation of lower rates. Lower rates equal a bull market.
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Saturday, February 15, 2014
Dangerous New World for Old Strategies / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” Will Rogers
Knowing what “ain’t so” is increasingly important for Investors and Traders Going Forward.
Indeed, going into 2014 perhaps the most important Realization to be made is that certain Grand Investment & Trading Strategies and Assumptions which were profitable in the past (e.g., in 2013) may well not be profitable in 2014 and beyond.
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Saturday, February 15, 2014
Why the Next Global Financial Crisis Will Be Unlike Any of the Last 200 Years / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
By: Submissions
F.F. Wiley writes: Sometime soon, we’ll take a shot at summing up our long-term economic future with just a handful of charts and research results. In the meantime, we’ve created a new chart that may be the most important piece. There are two ideas behind it:
Friday, February 14, 2014
Stocks Final Parabolic Bubble Spike - Great Inflation Scenerio 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Today another piece fell into place in my Great Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014.
Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Stock Market Margin Debt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Fred_Sheehan
John Hussman (Hussman Funds) wrote in his February 3, 2014, Weekly Market Comment: "The latest data from the NYSE shows equity margin debt at a new all-time high. Relative to GDP, the current 2.6% level was eclipsed only once - at the March 2000 market peak."
The ratio of margin debt is usually - at least, often - calculated in comparison to the market value of stocks. Later in his Comment, Hussman explains his choice: "We use GDP here because margin debt to GDP has a much higher correlation with actual subsequent market returns than say, margin debt/market capitalization (which destroys information by muting the indicator exactly at points when prices are extremely elevated or depressed)."
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Thursday, February 13, 2014
Stock Market Showing Strength....Spread Lower Still... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
It is so interesting to watch how rapidly something can happen within the machine known as the stock market. It wasn't very long ago that the bull-bear spread was 46%. Bulls themselves we're at 61%, an incredibly high number. This morning, based on last Friday's market close, bulls were down to 41% with the actual spread down to 24.4% from 46% in basically a month or so. Amazing how fast fear can take over and cause those bulls to change to either agnostic or outright bearish. Fear is the toughest emotion all stock-market players have to deal with.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Is the Stock Market Repeating the 1929 Run Up to the Great Depression Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Washingtons_Blog
Is History Repeating … Or Throwing a Head-Fake?
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Trigger Points and Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Pre-Market is flat this morning. The SPX made a perfect reversal pattern and now it needs the decline.
The trigger point (make sure you are short) in SPX is the 50-day moving average at 1809.25. I normally would expect to see a stair-step decline through the rest of the week, but anything may happen.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market No Worries – Dammit Janet, We Love You! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
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The future is ours so let's plan it, Janet
If there's one fool for you then I am it, Janet
Now I've one thing to say and that's
Dammit, Janet, I love you…
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Calling Down the Thunder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jesse
Initial Claims and Retail Sales might provide some economic grist for the market's mills on Thursday, but for today it was all bullishness as the thin volumes and lack of organic selling let stocks take off on the news that there will be a clear debt ceiling bill up for a vote tonight, and Janet Yellen's pandering to the corporate classes in her testimony today.