Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 14, 2014
Stocks Final Parabolic Bubble Spike - Great Inflation Scenerio 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Today another piece fell into place in my Great Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014.
Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Stock Market Margin Debt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Fred_Sheehan
John Hussman (Hussman Funds) wrote in his February 3, 2014, Weekly Market Comment: "The latest data from the NYSE shows equity margin debt at a new all-time high. Relative to GDP, the current 2.6% level was eclipsed only once - at the March 2000 market peak."
The ratio of margin debt is usually - at least, often - calculated in comparison to the market value of stocks. Later in his Comment, Hussman explains his choice: "We use GDP here because margin debt to GDP has a much higher correlation with actual subsequent market returns than say, margin debt/market capitalization (which destroys information by muting the indicator exactly at points when prices are extremely elevated or depressed)."
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Thursday, February 13, 2014
Stock Market Showing Strength....Spread Lower Still... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
It is so interesting to watch how rapidly something can happen within the machine known as the stock market. It wasn't very long ago that the bull-bear spread was 46%. Bulls themselves we're at 61%, an incredibly high number. This morning, based on last Friday's market close, bulls were down to 41% with the actual spread down to 24.4% from 46% in basically a month or so. Amazing how fast fear can take over and cause those bulls to change to either agnostic or outright bearish. Fear is the toughest emotion all stock-market players have to deal with.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Is the Stock Market Repeating the 1929 Run Up to the Great Depression Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Washingtons_Blog
Is History Repeating … Or Throwing a Head-Fake?
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Trigger Points and Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Pre-Market is flat this morning. The SPX made a perfect reversal pattern and now it needs the decline.
The trigger point (make sure you are short) in SPX is the 50-day moving average at 1809.25. I normally would expect to see a stair-step decline through the rest of the week, but anything may happen.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market No Worries – Dammit Janet, We Love You! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
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The river was deep but I swam it, Janet
The future is ours so let's plan it, Janet
If there's one fool for you then I am it, Janet
Now I've one thing to say and that's
Dammit, Janet, I love you…
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Calling Down the Thunder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jesse
Initial Claims and Retail Sales might provide some economic grist for the market's mills on Thursday, but for today it was all bullishness as the thin volumes and lack of organic selling let stocks take off on the news that there will be a clear debt ceiling bill up for a vote tonight, and Janet Yellen's pandering to the corporate classes in her testimony today.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Bitcoin? You Have Got To Be Joking! My Report From The World Economic Forum / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: David_Hague
Dear Reader, I must apologize for my tardiness in filing my report on last month's World Economic Forum [WEF] in Davos. This annual gathering of the world's best and brightest, society's rich and famous, the powerful and the political, the lobbyists as well as many economists, groupies, and assorted riff raff [Yours truly would fall into the last category.] is, perhaps, the most important harbinger of the prospects for the global economy in 2014. My reasons for being so late in filing my report will soon become apparent. I arrived in Davos, more excited than I had ever been in my career. A coterie of powerful bankers had retained me to make a keynote speech at the conference on the topic of Derivatives. They had agreed to cover my expenses and pay me handsomely for the opportunity to hear my thoughts on the subject.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
The 1% Being Picked on For Political Reasons / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Bloomberg
Wilbur Ross, chairman of WL Ross & Co., spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu and Cristina Alesci today about talks about investment strategy, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen's congressional testimony and Charter's takeover bid for Time Warner.
"I agree that the 1 percent is being picked on for political reasons," Ross said when asked whether he agreed with Sam Zell's comments about the 1%. "I think the right focus would be how do you help the lower classes elevate themselves. And I think what's disappointing with all the rhetoric, they're not doing anything to fix the educational system. Education is the way that people get out of the ghetto and into if not the 1 percent something close to it."
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Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Three Peaks and a (Complex) Domed House / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Ed_Carlson
The internet has been abuzz for several weeks about an analogue (discovered by Tom DeMark and popularized by Tom McClellan and others) of the bull market top in 1929 and our current market. I haven’t touched on Lindsay’s best-known model, Three Peaks and a Domed House (3PDh), since my August 19, 2013 commentary. With a fresh look we will discover that today’s Dow Industrials index has even more in common with 1929 than seen in the popular analogue. We can also develop a price forecast for the bottom of the new bear market.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Yellen Like Magellan / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
More free money?
That's the hope on which the markets are pinning this little rally as we bounce quickly off S&P support at 1,750 and already back to 1,800 – halfway back to 1,850 – making this little pullback the smallest of blips in the great bull rally of 2009 (now up 177% in 5 years).
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Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Goldman Sachs States This Could Very Well Be The China Century / Stock-Markets / China
By: Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein sat down with Bloomberg Television's John Dawson in Hong Kong earlier today and said emerging markets are in a better state today than in 1998, "There were a lot of things in '98 that don't exist now, better reserves, more flexibility in exchange rate, better policy orientation...There were tailwinds for emerging markets over the last several years. The risk returns to roost, not possibly, but inevitably. It has to. It's part of a cycle."
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Forecast 2014 Thought Experiment Revisited / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: With 66% of Q4-13 earnings complete, here is the latest update of my ongoing “thought experiment” for forecasting the S&P 500 price based on earnings fundamentals.
The previous two months, I issued a warning due to forecasted earnings being lowered while the average monthly closes went above the forecasted earnings projections. This month, 2014 earnings have been significantly increased from previous forecasts. As a result, the warnings have disappeared. I’ve included a chart below that illustrates the change since April 2013.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Waiting on Yellen.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
The market is sitting pretty much on the 50-day exponential moving average on the S&P 500. It will be very important for the short-term to see if we can break back above, or whether these 50's cause the next move lower. The answer to that may come, to some degree, tomorrow morning when the new Fed President, Ms. Yellen, gives her first speech to Congress. The world wants to know her future stance on tapering, and on those extremely low rates in the short- and long-term worlds. Once she finishes her speech the grilling will begin. You get the feeling Congress won't have much mercy.
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Monday, February 10, 2014
Stock Market Struggles to Bounce Amidst Record Leverage / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: EWI
Many Are Betting on a Calm Stock Market. We're Not.
Here's one good reason why: a historic market sentiment extreme
The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ are struggling to bounce. Yet the bullish convictions remain high. Says a February 5 Investor's Business Daily headline:
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Monday, February 10, 2014
Dow Industrials Stock Market Top in Place? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: WavePatternTraders
To answer that question truthfully, it's way too early to confirm the answer to that question. I have posted previously there is still a bullish wave count that suggests a possible move to 14000 before it moves higher and targets 17000 - 19000, but to those traders that are flexible and can trade both sides of the trend there is plenty of $$$ to be made for those that can find the right set ups.
Monday, February 10, 2014
S&P Index Trading - Correction May Occur / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
A sharp impulsive reversal from the highs suggests that the S&P500 has reached a temporary top and that price is heading lower or sideways in wave 4. Wave 4 is a corrective leg so this can be only a temporary weakness but we still need three legs in (a)-(b)-(c) formation, before we may start looking back to the highs again. Based on the latest price action we see a completed wave (a), followed by wave (b) that may find resistance next week around 1800/20.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Quantitative Easing The Killer Solution / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
On September 20, 2008, the Wall Street Journal wrote: When government officials surveyed the failing American financial system this week, they didn't see only a collapsed investment bank or the surrender of a giant insurance firm. They saw the circulatory system of the U.S. economy—credit markets—starting to fail.
A similar crisis had happened before and bankers understood that if the circulatory system, i.e. credit markets, [continued] to fail, a deflationary collapse in demand even more severe than the Great Depression would happen. In 2008, aggregate levels of debt were far higher than in the 1930s and the consequences would be also.
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Monday, February 10, 2014
Emerging Markets Crisis - Anatomy of International Capital Flows / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
The international capital flows from advanced Western Economies to Emerging Markets is not a new phenomenon. Since the abandonment of the Bretton Woods, there has been an upward trend in international capital movements. Reasons are being the growth of international trade and the liberalization of the trade and current accounts in the industrial economies, from the 1940s till the 1970s. Such capital flows are recorded in the Capital Account in the Balance of Payment of a country.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Stock Market Fat Lady Has Yet To Sing. Some Questions About YOUR Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
The opposite sentiment of "gold fever" has been apparent in the stock market, of late, with so many calls for a top and/or a crash. Gold has not rallied to higher levels called for, and the stock market has not fallen to levels that resemble a crash.
Trust in the Fed a little more. That criminal body is not about to let the market go down without more of a taper fight. It is not yet game over, at least for the market in general. The same may not be true of individual stocks within one's portfolio, and that is where the focus should lie.