Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Gold Breaking Support, US Bond Market Crash, Stocks Hitting Resistance / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Clive_Maund
The Big Story now is that there is evidence that powerful forces will be brought to bear shortly to support the ailing US Treasury market, which is close to crashing critical support, and those wielding the power will have no qualms about sacrificing either the commodity markets or the stockmarket to achieve this objective, if necessary. We will look at the outlook for the bond market and stockmarket later, after we have examined the gold charts and indicators.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Stock and Financial Markets 2013 Investment Themes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: John_Mauldin
A year ago, Dr. Gary Shilling published the influential book The Age of Deleveraging, which followed his earlier work, Deflation (1998); and in today’s Outside the Box he updates us on his thinking.
Deleveraging of the financial and household sectors has created a terrific macroeconomic undertow since 2008, eroding growth. Gary argues (against many of the talking heads in the mainstream TV world) that the deleveraging process for both these sectors has several years to run before it returns them to the long-term trend. He notes that QE is having only temporary and limited impact, as each round of easing by the Fed has propped up stocks only until a crisis in Europe or the US undermines incipient recovery all over again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast 2013 and Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones stock market index last closed at 13,992, having traded to a new intra-day bull market high of 14,022 and is well within 200 points of the all time closing high of 14,164 set on 9th October 2007 which has left many investors who have missed what amounts to a 4 year bull market asking the question whether they should buy now or not?
In this 2nd of a two part series I will seek to conclude towards a detailed trend forecast for stock market for the whole of 2013 and into early 2014.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2013
US Stock Market Uptrend Continues While Europe Weakens / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
A choppy but interesting week. The market had 1% swings several days this week, after it had remained in a 1% range for the entire previous week. In the end, new uptrend highs and the uptrend reached the OEW 1523 pivot range on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Foreign markets did not do as well. The Asian markets were -0.3%, European markets were -1.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.4%. Economic reports for the week were light, but remained with a positive bias. On the uptick: factory orders, the monetary base and the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit improved. On the downtick: ISM services, consumer credit and wholesale inventories. Next week we get retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
The Fed is Beginning to Remove the Punchbowl… Are You Ready For What’s Coming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Graham_Summers
A month ago, we noted that the Fed was becoming increasingly splintered about how to proceed with its monetary policy. At that time we noted that the latest FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed was in fact conflicted about QE 4 despite its public appearance of being unified:
Consider its recent FOMC minutes released on January 3 2013.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stock Markets Remain at Extreme Levels, Asset Class Correlations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Pallotta
For the week ending February 8, 2013, the SPX was up 0.3%, the Russell small caps were up 0.3% and the COMP was up 0.5%.
The only noticeable divergence within the indices remains the Nasdaq 100 which has failed to take out prior highs and has shown a clear loss of momentum. Technically it has violated model support and therefore is profiled as flat.
Small, mid and large cap indices remain in an uptrend as daily support has not failed though they are showing some loss of upside momentum. If you are long equity, stops that are recommend are roughly 1,500 on the S&P500, 902 on the Russell and 13,850 on the Dow.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Stock Market New Interim High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: The S&P 500 charged from the opening gate, after having had an hour to consider the good news in today’s better than expected December Trade Balance report. The December improvement will likely lead to an upward revision to Q4 GDP in the Second Estimate. The index hit its intraday high about an hour after the open and then zigzagged in a narrow range to a closing gain of 0.57%, not far off the intraday high. Today’s performance salvaged the week, which logged a gain of 0.31% from last Friday, setting a new interim high.
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Stock Market Recovery Continues To Topple ‘Big-Picture’ Theories! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
There’s never a shortage of ‘big picture’ theories, usually of the gloom and doom variety. They certainly sell books; often cause anxiety, sometimes even fear. But they almost never come to pass.In the mid-1940s, as World War II entered its final stage, ‘big-picture’ theorists warned that the pending demobilization of 10 million men and women serving in the military would send unemployment into double-digits and the economy into a serious recession, probably a depression. They warned "when the war ends the government can't just disband the military, close down munitions factories and stop building ships. The result would be disastrous". They sure made it sound convincing, pouring out impressive statistics that supported their theories.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2013
U.S. Economy Death Cross - Trouble Coming to Paradise / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Gordon_T_Long
The Macro Indicators are signaling there is potential trouble coming to paradise.
Goldman Sachs points out in a recent study that there is a remarkably strong correlation which has emerged as a result of global central bank policy initiatives. The steely eyed Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge points out:
We have noted the odd cyclicality in macro data (and its leading effect on the market) and it seems Goldman Sachs has also noticed that something is different this time. For 15 years, the seasonal patterns in Goldman's macro index have been mild to totally negligible; but since 2009, something changed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Authentic Market Trends and Investor Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: DeepCaster_LLC
“There is no paper money in 2014 or 2015 that will be worth much of anything.”
“You can’t get [silver coins]. They sell out….Several mints have run out of coins because everybody’s worried about the future of the world.”
“Gold has been up 12 years in a row which is extremely unusual for anything.”
“Don’t Sell Your Gold and Silver Coins: Jim Rogers The Daily Ticker, 02/07/2013
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Monetary Flood, Nothing At All, Then All at Once / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Adrian_Ash
Where money was tight, suddenly it's all arrived at once. Just like trouble does...
Everywhere we look, investors suddenly see nothing but blue skies, plain sailing ahead. Their change of heart makes us nervous, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
New York's S&P index is back where it stood in July 2007 - right before the global credit crunch first bit, eating more than half the stock market's value inside 2 years...
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Stock Market Final Probe at the Top is Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Head & Shoulders pattern in the NDX was nullified by this morning’s spike higher. It was replaced by another Orthodox Broadening Top. This is still within the prior OBT made over a month ago. The downside gap also remains. The urge to reflate is obvious in these repeating fractals. Broadening formations are rare and reveal confusion and a lack of leadership in the index. That is why the break-down will be severe, possibly monstrous. No one will take the blame for it, of course.
Friday, February 08, 2013
Central Banks Rigging the Markets, Regulators Blind to LIBOR Fraud / Stock-Markets / Banksters
By: Brady_Willett
Thanks to a series of colossal failures that were impossible to hide, we now know that Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) could instantly access billions of dollars that did not belong to them. Thanks to incriminating emails and ongoing settlements, we now know that a horde of banks can collude to rig key interest rate benchmarks for decades. This is what we now know after decades of malfeasance. Just imagine, then, what still goes on behind the curtain.
Friday, February 08, 2013
Stock Market Insiders Head For the Exits, Do They Know Something "We" Don't Know? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Whenever the markets begin to look toppy like they do now, I turn to short-term indicators to help me figure out "what's next" for the markets. It complements the fundamental analysis I rely on for the big picture.
Some people - lots of people, in fact - will tell you that this is a wasted exercise. Predicting the markets, they say, can't be done. I disagree if for no other reason that if that were true, guys like Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs, Richard Branson and Carlos Slim wouldn't be the legends they are today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 08, 2013
Possible Clearing of the Economic / Financial Cloud of Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Brian_Bloom
Summary and conclusion - The (selected) charts are pointing to a rising probability that the cloud of uncertainty that overhangs the world economy – with particular reference to sovereign debt – may be clearing. Specifically, the evidence is (so far, tentatively) suggesting that the banks can be expected to win the war for control over the global economy.
Implications of this are moderately bearish for gold, seriously bearish for gold shares, moderately bullish for the nominal economy, moderately bearish for the real economy; and one implication is that investment in bank shares may be both prudent and profitable.
The analysis below supports the argument of some, that the central bankers’ strategy for repaying sovereign debt will be to deliberately engineer an environment of negative real interest rates against a background of moderate inflation. If, coupled with this, legislation is passed to “manage” the proportion of retirement savings that is invested in government bonds, then this will allow governments to rob Peter (the nouvea riche wealthy and middle class) to pay Paul (those who have lent money to the sovereign borrowers).
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Investing In a World of Make Believe / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: John_Browne
In recent years, a high degree of economic, financial, and political uncertainty has resulted in acute volatility in stocks, real estate, commodities and precious metals. I believe that another aggravating factor has been the increasing skepticism through which the investing public views government statistics and statements. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 07, 2013
The Global Dominance Of Capital Rent / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Andrew_McKillop
IT STARTED IN EUROPE
With no possible surprise, the credit collapse since 2008 has its most sombre effects in Europe. Reasons for this include the very origins of the capital rent economy. The sterile debate between opponents and proponents of the state controlled economy, versus the free market economy, ignores the reality in all "mature economies" and firstly in Europe of the financiarized or capital rent dominated economy.
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Stock Market Sentiment Getting Up There...Not Yet At A Total Sell Signal...Caution For Now.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
When sentiment gets up to these levels you have to take notice and ask yourself about how much more upside there is before things come down hard. Historically it takes 40%, or slightly above, before a bear market starts for the short-term in order to unwind. In 2007 we saw it reach 42.5% before the crash in the stock market, and the same crash happened in 2011, with a 41.6% reading. We're at 33.6% with bears still above 20%, although real close at 21.1%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Stock Market Gaps and Other Nasty Formations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Here is a closer examination of the NDX. Starting from left to right, you can see the huge island gap left on January 2. The NDX closed on December 31 at 2660.93. The Head is also an island reversal pattern, with the gap left open. You may say that the rally in the right shoulder to 2768.63 filled the gap. That may be so. That still leaves the massive gap underneath the current island formation. The Head & shoulders pattern will either fill the gap or, as I have suggested, leave another gap on the way down. The fascinating part is the closing price in the NDX on December 31 was 2660.93, only 78 ticks from the Head & Shoulders Minimum Target.
Wednesday, February 06, 2013
Stock Market Euphoria as Fed Drives Up Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: EWI
The following is a sample from Elliott Wave International's new 40-page report, The State of the Global Markets -- 2013 Edition: The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read This Year. This article was originally published in the October 2012 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.
Read full article... Read full article...When government gets into the act of speculation, the top is usually way past having occurred. Government is the ultimate crowd, every decision being made by committee. It is always acting on the last trend, the one that is already over. (For example, the Federal government passed securities laws to prevent the 1929 crash...in 1934.) -- The Elliott Wave Theorist