Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Rising stock prices may be self-sustaining, but rising commodity prices are self-limiting / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010

By: ECR_Research

The upswing in resource prices continues. From a fundamental perspective this is no surprise. As the US, Japan, and Europe pursue an unremittingly loose monetary policy, credit supply to the “real” economy is more or less stagnant. Therefore a lot of capital is available for speculation. In addition, growth rates (and the anticipated returns) in the emerging economic nations outpace those in the West, whereas the former consume relatively high quantities of commodities. Owing to various capital restrictions it has now become easier and cheaper to speculate on buoyant growth in the upcoming economies through the commodity markets. On top of this US growth is accelerating while resources are becoming more popular as an inflation hedge.

Monday, December 27, 2010

What 2010's End is Saying About 2011's Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Money_Morning

Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks rose last week with all the excitement of water turning to ice in the freezer.

I kept hitting the side of my monitor to see if the pixels were stuck -- but no, it was just another one of those low-volume, low-drama late-December sessions that we have come to know and love.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Stock Market Extreme Investor Sentiment Persists / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010

By: Guy_Lerner

It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or Wall Street analyst ~ a downgrade?) to figure out that investors are extremely bullish on the equity markets. Such extremes in sentiment will usually (85% of the time) lead to better risk adjusted buying opportunities in the future. In other words, the next best time to be a buyer of equities will be when investors are bearish not bullish as they are now. The markets don't have to go down just because everyone is bullish, but if you are a "believer" and buyer at these levels, then you will need to identify a market top and get to the exits before the next guy to extract profits. This is a very crowded trade and identifying the top is a tall order.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

The Stocks Bear Market Will Return In 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Toby_Connor

It's almost impossible to find anyone who is long term bearish on the stock market or economy at this time. In the recent Barron’s poll every single analyst expected a rise in stock prices next year and continued economic expansion.

I think they are all going to be wrong, horribly wrong. I believe next year the stock market will begin the third leg down in the secular bear market. And the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Analysis Into End of 2010 and 2011 Start / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010

By: Tony_Caldaro

It was a productive albeit quiet week of trading in the US. The market made a new bull market high in the opening minutes of trading on monday, made higher highs over the next two days, and closed out the week within two points of the SPX 1259 bull market high. The week’s fourteen economic reports were all jammed into the last two days of trading. Twelve were positive or improving, and only two were flat or lower. The rundown. Weekly jobless claims were flat, and the weekly M1 multiplier declined this week. Q3 GDP was raised to 2.6%, existing/new home sales rose, as did FHFA home prices and weekly mortgage applications. Durable goods orders improved, personal income/spending remained positive, while PCE prices rose, along with, consumer sentiment, the monetary base and the WLEI.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Stock Market Reaches Eight Month High, Could be Downhill Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

After Nearly Two Years Of Searching, TrimTabs Still Can't Figure Out Who Is Buying Stocks

(ZeroHedge) A year after Charles Biderman's provocative post first appeared on Zero Hedge, in which he asked just who is doing all the buying of stocks as the money was obviously not coming from retail investors, today Maria Bartiromo invited the TrimTabs head once again in an interview which disclosed that after more than a year of searching, Biderman still has no idea who actually buying. In response to Bartiromo's question if the retail investor, who left after the flash crash (thank you SEC), Biderman responds what every Zero Hedger has known for 33 weeks: "Retail investors are not coming back to the US…When I was on your show a year ago I was saying the same thing: we can't figure out who is doing the buying it has to be the government, and people said I was nuts. Now the government is admitting it is rigging the market." Cue Bartiromo’s jaw dropping.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

The Derivatives Monster That's 9X Bigger than the Global Economy / Stock-Markets / Derivatives

By: Richard_Daughty

I assume that you, as an intelligent person who understands that the treacherous, greedy, vampire banks creating so much excess money means We’re Freaking Doomed (WFD), are Up To Your Freaking Ears (UTYFE) in gold, silver and oil, and you have had it UTYFE with your family always complaining about how you spend all the family’s income on gold, silver and oil instead of luxuries, family vacations, adequate food, clothing, medical care, dental care, blah blah blah, the list goes on and on.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Global Stocks and Commodities Trotting / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010

By: Piazzi

Let’s take a look at a variety of indexes, one commodity, and one commodity-related index

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Stock Market Technical Outlook 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Ciovacco

As we kick off 2011, there are plenty of things for investors to worry about, including budget imbalances in developed nations, high levels of bullish sentiment, and a fear of rising interest rates. As of late December 2010, the market’s technical profile remains healthy relative to the outlook for the next few months, something we expand on in the video below.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Stock Market Santa Rally Closes at New Bull Market High, FTSE Above 6000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

London's FTSE 100 Stocks Index closed at a new bull market high and above the 6000 level for the first time since June 2008, which followed the Dow's yesterday close at a new bull market high of 11,573.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Lessons Learned by Looking Back at 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010

By: Mike_Larson

The year is winding down, and boy has it been an exciting and volatile one. Bonds. Currencies. Financial stocks. Some of the gyrations we’ve witnessed in those instruments over the past 12 months were enough to take your breath away …

Friday, December 24, 2010

Thoughts on Stock Market Timing and Hundreds of Billions in Municipal Bond Market Losses? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010

By: John_Mauldin

We Lost One of the Really Good Guys
Hundreds of Billions in Losses? Really?
Some Thoughts on Market Timing
Where Has the Year Gone?

I am neither a market timer nor the son of a market timer. I left my office in the Texas Rangers ballpark this year, and they went to the World Series. I bought Dallas Cowboys season tickets for the first time in 50 years, as they went down in flames. But I do know a few very good timers, and they are sending out warnings. Today, we look at a few of these, as it might pay to hedge some of your equity portfolio as we go into the New Year. I also answer some questions as to my view of the municipal bond market, given the 60 Minutes report of last week. The answers may surprise you. And as we approach the end of the year, I suggest a place where your help is most needed. I will try to keep it shorter, as there are more important things at this time of the year than the markets.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Stock Market Bullish Tone Continues into 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Donald_W_Dony

Equity markets have enjoyed a positive tone since mid-2010. Improving fundamentals and rising U.S. GDP have bolstered investor confidence and supported the upward trend of the bull market. A year-end review of several key technical gauges highlights the ongoing strength that is normally associated with bull markets and should remind investors of the opportunities ahead in 2011.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Stock Sentiment Worsens... Holiday Time Holds Market Up... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010

By: Jack_Steiman

This is normally a very bullish time of the year for the stock market. Santa Clause and all that nonsense. It's a retail trade time where small investors buy, and buy, and buy some more the way they're trained to do while the big money walks away for vacation. Volume trends are ridiculously low, but the markets almost always trend higher. We like that notion. Holiday cheer and good market times. Only problem is, sentiment is now becoming an important issue for this market.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Investor ETF Madness hits $1 Trillion / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds

By: PhilStockWorld

After adding $209Bn (26.3%) in total assets so far this year, the US ETF industry has passed the Trillion Dollar mark led by $31Bn of inflows into fixed income ETFs, of all things as well as $29Bn of inflows into emerging markets, and $21Bn into domestic.  Recent outflows have knocked commodity ETFs down to $11.4Bn, miles down from last year’s $32.6Bn inflow – rats leaving a sinking ship, perhaps?  That would be very bad news for the firm that bought up 90% of the LME copper supply recently.  Do ETF traders really know something or are they a lagging indicator?

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

The Three Financial Market Trends That Will Define 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Chris_Kitze

It’s that time of the year when analysts and economics make financial predictions for the year ahead. And it is time for me to throw in my two cents’ worth as well. I believe that four financial trends will shape and define 2011. Here they are:

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Mike_Shedlock

1. US Municipal Bankruptcies Head to Center Stage

Look for Detroit and at least one other city in Michigan to go bankrupt. Also look for increasing discussions regarding bankruptcy from Los Angeles, Miami, Oakland, Houston, and San Diego. Those cities are definitely bankrupt, they just have not admitted it yet. The first major city to go bankrupt will cause a huge stir in the municipal bond market. Best to avoid Munis completely.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Stock Market Sentiment Not A Barrier To Further Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Ciovacco

There are currently several reasons to be concerned about the stock market, from debt problems in Europe to slowing technical momentum. However, if investor sentiment is currently at the top of your list of concerns, you may want to bump it down a few notches.

Stock market sentiment relative to a bullish or bearish outlook can be used as a contrary indicator for stock prices when it reaches extremes. If you follow the markets closely, you have run into an article or two making the case that a correction or bear market is imminent based on the current state of extended bullish sentiment.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

U.S. Stock Market Forecast 2011, Outperform for Tech, Energy and Commodity, Gold Sectors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: The outlook for the U.S. stock market in the New Year figures to be an exasperating mixture of promise and peril. Positive momentum is building going into 2011, but so are dangerous bubbles.

The high-tech, energy, materials and commodities sectors will be hot in the New Year. And the U.S. stock market will get an added boost from the fact that U.S. Treasuries, municipal bonds (munis) and euro-based investments will not.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Profiting from Fed Policy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010

By: David_Galland

David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: These days, it’s hard to draw any conclusion other than that the train is gaining speed on wobbly tracks perched over a rickety bridge.

Most notably, unemployment has again risen – to 9.8% from 9.6% – very much not the direction things should be headed given the amount of money the government has pumped into the economy. The latest data shows that this nation of 310 million souls managed to add just 39,000 jobs in November. That, unfortunately, falls short of even keeping up with a population growth of about 1% – doing just that requires generating a net of about 250,000 jobs a month. As for eating away at the millions of unemployed and the many millions more who are underemployed… oh, well.