Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 09, 2019
Is the Stock Market About to Crash or Soar? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
I’ve noticed an interesting development recently. Traders and investors are mostly split into 2 camps: those who are extremely bullish and think that December 2018 marked a cyclical bottom, and those who are extremely bearish and think that stocks will crash.
I think a middle ground scenario is more likely – this is just a normal rally towards the end of a bull market. A massive breakaway rally that will last years is unlikely, but neither is an imminent crash.
- Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
- Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
- Technicals (short term): mixed
Monday, July 08, 2019
Is the Global Debt Crisis About to be Reborn in 2020? - PART II / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There are some key elements of political and economic Super-Cycles that all traders must stay aware of listed below. But if you have not yet read PART I do so now.
_ Very often, 12+ months before a major US political election cycle, the US stock market typically enters a Bearish trend phase that lasts until 8+ month before the actual election date.
_ The Transportation Index has not recovered to levels from the September 2018 peak. This lower price rotation in the Transportation Index suggests the global economy is not expecting growth in the near future.
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Monday, July 08, 2019
Stock Market Minor Cycles Peaking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate-term correction continues to unfold.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 08, 2019
Kospi Stock Index Long Term Cycles Remain Bullish / Stock-Markets / South Korea
By: ElliottWaveForecast
The KOSPI Index in the long term has been trending higher with other world indices since inception in 1983. The index began with a base value set at 100 and trended higher until it ended that cycle in 1994. The index then corrected that cycle with the dip into 1998 lows during the Asian Financial Crisis. That is where the monthly chart pictured below begins. From the 1998 lows the index did three bullish swings higher into the November 2007 highs. The pullback from there until October 2008 was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the whole cycle up from the June 1998 lows.
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Monday, July 08, 2019
Huge Gap between US Markets and International Trade / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dan_Steinbock
Globalization is not a concern to the Trump administration, which seeks to sustain high market valuations that are not supported by the fundamentals. As a result, a global recession in 2020 would not be the worst scenario. Since the mid-1980s, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been used as a barometer of international commodity trade. It is also seen as an economic indicator of future economic growth and production.
During the years of globalization, the Index heralded the peak of the oil prices and soared to a record high in May 2008 reaching 11,793 points. But as the financial crisis spread in the advanced West, the BDI plunged by 94% to 663 points, the lowest since 1986. That’s when marine shippers were moving dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews.
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Monday, July 08, 2019
Is The Debt Crisis About To Be Reborn In 2020? / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have been focused on the upside price move in Gold and Precious Metals, we’ve been engaged in multiple private conversations with members and friends about the potential for a renewed debt crisis between now and the end of 2020.
This research post should help to put some perspective into what we believe the next 16+ months of trading and what the US economy should look like for our followers.
First, we want to talk about one of our most favorite topics of the past 24+ months – the “capital shift” phenomenon. We first identified this facet of global economic dynamics back in 2015 or so.
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Monday, July 08, 2019
Warning Stock Market May Go Off the Cliff, Stagflation Like Never Before / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies joins me for a tremendous interview on what he sees as pending doom in the stock market and why he believes we’re in for a bout of stagflation that will make the 1970s look like a walk in the park. He also makes a compelling case for gold during an interest rate environment that he believes will soon be turning profoundly negative in real terms. So don’t miss a must-hear interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.
Following yesterday’s Independence Day celebrations, perhaps more Americans will wake up to the need to declare their independence from the financial system. One of the best ways to do that is by shifting dollar-denominated wealth from bank and brokerage accounts into physical precious metals.
Although the public isn’t yet clamoring in huge numbers to buy bullion, we have seen some encouraging price action of late in metals markets. The main fireworks have been in gold – rising to a multi-year high – and palladium.
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Sunday, July 07, 2019
Stock Markets Don’t Care About the News, Nasdaq 10,000? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Markets popped higher this morning after a weekend of good news: The Donald and Xi Jinping have agreed to a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war. The Donald has eased trade restrictions on Huawei. And The Donald made nice with North Korea.On Friday, I explained that markets were at that critical point where they could either roll over and die or zoom to the moon. Today’s market action shows we’re clearly following the Dark Window that I forecast back in January already. I hope you’re taking advantage of it.
I first mentioned the Dark Window opportunity in January. While I’ve updated you on the market’s progress along this scenario many times since then, it’s been a long time since I spelled out my forecast. So, in light of today’s market madness, let’s take a trip down memory lane and re-read an email I sent you on January 9th.
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Saturday, July 06, 2019
Stock Market Surging 25%... or Falling 25%? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
I sent a market update to Boom & Bust subscribers in our 5 Day Forecast last Monday. I explained that stocks saw their biggest correction since late 2011, which makes that a 4th wave correction leading into a 5th wave final blow-off rally… what I have been calling the Dark Window scenario. My target is around 10,000 on the leading index, the Nasdaq, and around 33,000 on the Dow.It’s likely we saw the first wave up into early May with two more strong surges ahead. We have just made new highs on the Dow and S&P 500, with the Nasdaq coming close to a new high.
Is this a breakout in the next wave up?
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Friday, July 05, 2019
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates / Stock-Markets / Negative Interest Rates
By: Dan_Amerman
"Following the money" can be a good way of unraveling complexity. Sometimes what the technical jargon is covering up can be as simple as Insider A handing money over to Insider B in massive quantities - and when we understand that, our whole perspective can change.
In this analysis, we will explore how a potential future of negative interest rates in combination with quantitative easing could become one of the largest redistributions of wealth in U.S. history, with hundreds of billions of dollars in profits going disproportionately to insiders - at the expense of the general public. As illustrated with a step by step example, when we follow the money - $279 billion out of every $1 trillion in newly created money could end up going straight into the hands of organizations and individuals who make up a relatively small percentage of the nation.
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Friday, July 05, 2019
Investing Today Is All About Predicting What Trump Wants / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
Trump is the most polarizing figure of all time.
If you say something good about him, half of people will hate you. If you say something bad about him, the other half will hate you.
It is a no-win situation. So financial writers, myself included, never write about him.
But that’s dumb! Donald J. Trump is the biggest driver of financial markets in the world. Hands down. How can you not write about him?
So here is what we are going to do.
Thursday, July 04, 2019
Stocks Can’t Even Rally on a Trade War “Cease Fire” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday’s market action was a MAJOR wake up call.
Stocks erupted 1.5% higher on announcements that the US/ China reached some form of a trade deal…
However, the rally barely lasted, giving up most of its gains by mid-day. It was only through a desperate end of the session manipulation (red box in the chart below) that stocks didn’t end the day flat.
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Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Transportation Index Warns Of Stock Market Trouble Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Any weakness in the Transportation Index near current levels would indicate investors and traders believe the global economy may continue to contract going forward and may be an ominous sign for the global stock markets.
The Transportation Index is a measure of the current expectations related to shipping, trucking, trains and all measure of forward expectations for goods, products and raw materials to be moved across nations, seas, states, and locations. When the economy is gaining strength, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving higher. When the economy is weakening, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving lower.
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Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Stock Market Final S/T Push? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate-term correction continues to unfold.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Forex Market Charts and Setups: GOLD follows our Path Down / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Global equities rose on Monday as the G20 summit in Osaka fuelled optimism that trade tensions will ease, while havens fell out of favour and oil rallied on an extension of production cuts by Opec+ countries. The agreement between the US and China to resume trade talks and halt the imposition of further tariffs, fed hopes that the trade war may be easing up. European stock indices followed their Asian peers higher, with the international Stoxx 600 up 0.9 per cent, led by sectors sensitive to the outlook for trade relations. The Stoxx index tracking carmakers rose 2.1 per cent and Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30, home to a range of exporters, was up 1.8 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9 per cent. S&P 500 futures tipped US stocks to open up by over 1 per cent.
The move out of havens was brisk and set gold on course for its biggest single fall in a calendar year, down 1.7 per cent to $1,385.70. Japan’s yen weakened by 0.5 per cent to ¥108.38 per dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 4.5 basis points as investors move out of the debt gathered pace, taking it to 2.0447 per cent. We had suggested the short gold trade here: GOLD TO FALL 10%. Currently Gold has cracked 1385.
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Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Re-examining a Popular Stock Market Long Term Bearish Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been very choppy in the past year. Over the past few months, the yield curve has been extremely hyped-up in the media and social media. I found some interesting data that makes you re-think how useful the yield curve really is for marketing timing. Today’s headlines:
- Long term volatility is high
- VVIX tanked
- Weekend gap up
- Few -1% down days
- ISM PMI
- Gold’s sentiment is retreating
- How useful is the yield curve?
Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Playing the Stocks Bull Market Till the Music Stops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
The last week of June completed as an inside week that traded very close to within our expected 2969-2915 high-level consolidation range on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). The actual range for the week was 2961.75-2914.5.
Essentially, the market action started the consolidation late Monday. It backtested against 2915, a major must-hold level, with 2914.5 printed as the "sticksave" to become the low of the week by Wednesday June 26.
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Wednesday, July 03, 2019
Stock Index Trend Trading Strategy / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week was a great week for trading as we locked in profits on a trade and raised our stops to protect the rest of our open positions.
take a look at how my trading system identifies trends, trades, and targets in the chart below.
Tuesday, July 02, 2019
G20 News Drive Big Moves In The Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This past weekend was full of exciting news and information. Combine this with the strong US economic activity, the potential for some type of reprieve in the US/China trade issues and the historic meeting in North Korea between President Trump and Kim Jun Un, and the markets were set up for a big move at the open of trading in Tokyo.
The other big news originated from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). This Swiss-based central banking committee for “central banks” released an annual report on the progress of global central banks and the global economy last weekend. They urged central banks not to chase easy money policies any longer and to focus on core policy changes, practical economic practices, and real leadership to help drive future growth. They urged nations that easy money policies may help to show some types of immediate economic improvements – but that the risks of continuing such policies and lack of true economic reforms do nothing but pack risk into the back end of these efforts.
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Saturday, June 29, 2019
The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
From the Christian Bible, John 8:32 - Jesus speaking: “If you abide in My word, you are My disciples indeed. And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.”
So, we have it on pretty good authority, Jesus Christ, that freedom is spawned from truth. If humans want to be free, they must therefore seek the truth.
The current day media, news - sports - financial, has gone full bore communist state mouth piece. They only report what they want us to believe. Deceivers push falsehoods to enhance their own power with the hope of enslaving the masses. The serpent doesn’t use an apple today. The serpent uses the microphone, politicians, entertainers, complete human ignorance, electronic media, and social media for deceit.
This is a truth we know. Low taxes plus low government regulation results in robust economies. Yet, no government on Earth facilitates this truth. In fact, they are the opposite and therefore in a spiritual sense, evil.
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