Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Risk:Reward over the next few months Doesn’t favor Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The past 7 months saw stocks and bonds surge together (bond yields fell). With stocks trending sideways, bond yields are also bottoming. Today’s headlines:
- Yield curve un-inverted
- Leading indicator for the economy & industrial production
- Put/Call ratio tanked
- Consumer Staples surge
- This defensive sector is no longer outperforming
- Silver’s golden cross
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Black Hole In Global Banking Is Being Exposed / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost a decade ago, the global financial crisis of 2008-09 exposed billions of people to the risks within the global financial/banking sector. With all this money flowing around the globe and with banks able to facilitate greater and more diverse risk/derivatives investments, the central banks and insurance companies are left with an incredible “black hole” of exposed risk that is almost impossible to quantify. When we add the shadow/gray market banking risks into this equation and begin to understand the complexity of commodity-backed or Purchase Order backed financing that has become commonplace throughout the planet, we have to ask ourselves one question – “what would it take for these risks to become another crisis?”
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Stock Market Breadth Warning Signs for the Stock Market’s Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the stock market trades on light volume, various breadth indicators are flashing short term warning signs. Today’s headlines:
- A real breadth divergence.
- Weaker than average economic growth
- Lagging margin debt
- Baltic Dry Index surge
- Gold:silver ratio
- Netflix
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
US Dollar Index tightly wound between: US Bond Yields down on safety flows / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
As markets begin a new week, there are interesting opportunities. SPX ended the week in a state of uncertainty. Weekend news from Iran seem to suggest there is no truce visible as Iran has not yet let go of the Oil tanker captured. It was flying a UK flag. US has not fully involved itself in the spate and thus market are waiting on a US response. However bond market seem to have made up its mind that they will not wait for a strike but rather exercise caution before its too late.
USDJPY has opened the week above 108. Above 108.4 the pair may look to extend gains to 109.2. The lack of impetus suggest we will fall to 105 on USDJPY.
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Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Stocks Bull or Bear? The Market’s Message / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
Today I would like to review the state two markets. The general stock market and the precious metals market. Following this I will give an update on Plungers Core-7 portfolio.
Consider this report an opportunity to read an alternative view of the markets. My views of the major averages are certainly at odds with consensus opinion. Furthermore, they are also at odds with the methodology of chartology. A strict interpretation of the charts will not lead to the conclusions I present here. I understand I am not in synch with the Rambus interpretation of the stock market, but he has been gracious enough to allow me to present it anyway.
The General Stock Market: Run!… Don’t walk away from this thing.
Identifying whether it is a bull or bear market is a more effective method to operate than focusing on individual stocks that may go up or down. Most investors however, are mainly engaged in stock selection and spend little time in deep thought as to the state of the averages. This directly relates to what I consider the most important thing in investing. That is aligning oneself with the primary trend.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
Stock Market Increasing Technical Weakness / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August/September before the intermediate trend becomes more clear.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
Stock Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today, we are going to share with you some incredible charts that highlight why we believe all traders and investors need to stay keenly aware of the potential for very explosive moves over the next 6 to 12+ months. We’ve authored a number of articles about super-cycles, Gold, Oil and dozens of other symbols suggesting that a deeper and more complicated economic shift is taking place throughout the world. We’ve been following the trail of money and investments for many months and attempting to map out what we believe will happen in the future with our proprietary predictive modeling systems and adaptive learning utilities. Get ready for some crazy price ranges and a big move in the markets over the next 30+ days.
Right now, we believe the US stock market is poised for another attempt to move briefly higher as a flood of earnings hits the news wires next week. We are confident that the US stock market will attempt a move higher based on our predictive modeling systems and other technical analysis tools. We want to warn you that this upside move will likely become a “wash-out high” price rotation where price rallies briefly, stalls, then reverses back to the downside fairly quickly. We believe this “wash-out high” price pattern will set up and execute before August 5th or so. Be prepared as this move may sucker in a number of new long traders just before it breaks lower.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
What you Really need to Know about the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
If you read financial news & market analysis from pundits every day, it’s easy to be overwhelmed by countless charts, data, indicators, opinions, etc. In this post, I’m going to focus on what I think really matters for the stock market right now. A quick recap:
- Long term risk:reward does not favor bulls
- Fundamentals (next 6-9 months): favors bulls
- Technicals (next 6-9 months): favors bulls (i.e. late cycle rally)
- Short term: mixed/bearish
Friday, July 19, 2019
XAU, Newmont, Dollar, DOW RTT Charts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old.
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Friday, July 19, 2019
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently I have been trying to show all the different angles to look at and analyze the US stock market and the precious metals sector. At the end of this report, I will share with you several crucial angles and charts you must see for our self. There are several very intriguing things unfolding right now which are interconnected in ways you may not have known.
Gold Midterm Years and Seasonality
Let’s start off with the price of gold and what it typically does each month during the presidential midterm year, which is this year 2019. The graph below shows the average price movement during the midterm election since 1971 and I think the chart speaks for its self.
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Thursday, July 18, 2019
Who is Lying: Gold or the Dow? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Both Gold and the Dow has in recent times made significant bull market signals.
The Dow in 2016 when it broke out of a rising resistance line:
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Thursday, July 18, 2019
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12. Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level. In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.
The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity. If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity. If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.
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Thursday, July 18, 2019
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market went nowhere today. Today’s headlines:
- S&P internal weakness
- Low volume vs. high volume rallies
- Short term, medium term, and long term trend
- Mean reversion
- Consumer discretionary on fire
Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.
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Thursday, July 18, 2019
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
SPX may now be consolidating at 3000 levels for some time. If the market does not selloff aggressively at these levels, then we will melt higher.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Everyone knows something bad is brewing not just in tnhe USA but globally within the financial systems. Most countries are bankrupt, and almost all currencies have been losing value for the past year. Everyone is playing the game of musical chairs and getting creative with how they borrow, lend, create, and steal money in hopes the world does not catch on to just how corrupt and bad things really are.
It’s just a matter of time before we see another financial market meltdown and what I show you here today gives you an idea of just how close we could be to a market collapse.
The financial markets rarely repeat the same type of crisis, but most crisis’ cause the stock market to sell off and crash in the same way. Human nature and emotions do not change, and because traders and investors drive the price action of stocks we are able to profit from bear markets.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
You should completely understand that the market is dangerously overvalued and that global economic growth has slowed to a crawl along with S&P 500 earnings. However, you must also be wondering when the massive overhang of unprecedented debt levels, artificial market manipulations, and the anemic economy will finally shock Wall Street to a brutal reality.
Artificially-low bond yields are prolonging the life of this terminally-ill market. In fact, record-low borrowing costs have been the lynchpin for perpetuating the illusion. Therefore, what will finally pull the plug on this market’s life support system is spiking corporate bond yields, which will manifest from the bursting of the $5.4 trillion BBB, Junk bond and leveraged loan markets. And, for that to occur, you will first need an outright US recession and/or a bonafide inflation scare.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ruchi_Mahajan
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Raymond_Matison
Are you still in the market? Markets for equities and bonds have been struggling over the last one and a half years. Few real gains have been made – and it has taken an important policy reversal by the FED just to keep the markets levitated at current levels. Neither earnings reports nor financial statistics seem to matter; charts have not mattered; the state of our domestic economy does not seem to matter either, as global trade, tariffs and sanctions are ignored in market valuations which remain scandalously unrealistic. Negative earnings guidance is at record levels, but that too does not matter. Both market fundamentals and charts continue to be completely ignored. Every money manager simply follows announced guidance action of the Federal Reserve, and evaluates their statements to the point of analyzing missing or modified words from previous FED press releases.
During the Cold War, its belligerents developed a theory and practice to deal with the very real risk of a nuclear conflagration. The resulting adopted strategy was called Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. The operating theory was that neither nuclear power, Russia nor the United States, would initiate a nuclear attack while remaining vulnerable, because of the presumption of a vigorous response in kind, destroying both countries and perhaps making life impossible on the whole planet from radiation fallout.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
Over the last 10 years, the yields on the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury bond have foretold the path of the S&P 500.
Money flow trends between the bond market and the equity market, over the past decade, have given investors a heads-up on the trading direction of the S&P 500.
The swings toward fixed income (2011 to mid-2012, 2014 to mid-2016, Q4 2018 to mid-2019) have produced higher bond prices and lower yields as money managers balance safety and risk.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I believe the outcome of the past 6+ months with regards to global trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in weaker US earnings in Q2 than at any time over the past 3+ years. We believe US stocks, after recently breaching key psychological price levels ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant price pattern formation headed into a key price breakdown near the middle of August 2019.
Our cycle indicator tools and predictive modeling suggests that August 19, 2019, is the date to watch out for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets may begin a new downward price phase that could lead to a dramatic price decline. Read our August 19 Top warning here
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