Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, November 20, 2008
Secrets to Stock Market Value Investing Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Value funds have long been viewed as conservative investments. So why are they down an average of 42% during the past 12 months, and what's wrong with them?
No question, such numbers are scary, especially for large-cap value fund investors who have experienced that 42% drop. And the fact that some of the biggest names in value investing have taken such big beatings has to be especially disconcerting for investors who already have had their confidence badly shaken and their portfolios eviscerated.
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Thursday, November 20, 2008
Stock Markets Hit by Deflationary Storm Crash Through Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
THE PRICE OF GOLD held steady for US and Japanese investors early Thursday – and leapt for everyone else – as a fresh spike in both the Dollar and Yen, borrowed to fund leveraged speculation during the investment boom of 2002-2007, matched new losses in world equity markets."Global assets keep deflating, inflation is falling faster than expected," writes Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank in Johannesburg in his Gold Market note today.
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Thursday, November 20, 2008
Exploding Global Stock Markets Hit by Economic Torpedo / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Yesterday was another ugly day for stocks, with bourses around the globe falling victim to strong selling pressure. Fueling the sell-off were concerns that the economic recession could not only be deeper and longer than previously feared, but also fall into a corrosive deflationary phase.
The MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 4.6% and 2.2% respectively, tallying declines of 51.2% and 63.4% since the peaks of these indices in October 2007. Only the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index (+6.0%) and the Russian Trading System Index (+0.7%) bucked yesterday's declines.
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Thursday, November 20, 2008
Stock Markets Look Set to Crash Through 2002 Lows / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Your plan should foresee and provide for a next step in case of success or failure.” B.H. Liddell Hart (1895-1970)
Losses Highlight Need For Formal Risk Management - Wednesday's painful session in stocks brought the NASDAQ's (QQQQ) total loss from the 2007 highs to over 51%. The S&P 500 (SPY) is nearing a 50% loss as well. These depressing figures underscore the need for investors to have a formal and well defined risk management plan. Said another way, you should have started cutting losses a long, long time ago. However, it is dangerous to believe it is too late to adopt a strategy to cut losses in the event of further declines in asset prices. It is dangerous to assume the worst is over. Prudent money managers plan for the worst and keep an open mind about the possibility of more favorable outcomes.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Stock Markets Hit by Panic Selling as the Bear Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Another very negative day on the Street as the bear market continues in earnest. Despite the fact that futures were down for most of the pre-market, they ended up opening firm and rallying back to initial resistance. When they couldn't break through they sold off sharply to retest yesterday afternoon's lows, backed and filled for several hours and on three different occasions ran right up to initial resistance but once again couldn't get through. Late in the session when it was apparent the rally was not going to materialize, they rolled over in the sharpest decline of the session, closing at the session lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Stock Market Apocalyptic Crash Soon? S&P at the Tipping Point / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
A short time ago we stirred up one of the lists we belong to by commenting that the SPX might go to minus 4. We had to post a follow up to assure them that we were joking. Of course everybody hates a jester when times are like they are. Grim. In general. Here is the chart we showed them:Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Investing in Stocks During Scary Times / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Nilus Mattive writes: Every time it looks like a real stock market rally is about to happen, the indexes end up right back down where they started (or lower).
Panic and doomsday scenarios are all over the newspapers and TV talk shows.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Stock Markets Last-Hour Rally Brings Indices into Plus Column / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The markets surprised late in the session after another nasty session, and ended with a late afternoon last-hour rally that brought all the indices back into positive territory except for the SOXX.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Index Pivots to the Upside / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The overall pattern in the ProShares Ultralong Dow 30 ETF (AMEX: DDM) carved out off of last Thursday's low at 27.34 indicates that the initial upleg of a powerful recovery rally phase started at 27.34 and ended Friday at 34.23. All of the action since then represents a deep correction of the initial upleg. As long as today's secondary low at 28.50 contains additional, forthcoming weakness, my extreme near-term work is "warning" me to expect a pivot upside reversal that hurdles today's high at 30.81 on the way to a confrontation with the near-term Nov resistance line, now at 32.10. (1:15 pm EST, 29.33).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Next Downleg About to Begin? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Is the stock market close to deciding whether to give us another leg down?
Today' chart looks at "the change of balance fight" between how many stocks are shifting between being Very Strong in Strength, or Very Weak in Strength.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Stock Market is Not in Uncharted Territory / Stock-Markets / Volatility
This week we visit some very thoughtful analysis by an old friend of Outside the Box, Dr. John Hussman of the Hussman Funds ( http://www.hussmanfunds.com/ index.html ). Is it 1932? Are we in a Depression? Where is the bottom? John gives us a very balanced view and actually offers some positive insight on the markets. There may be light ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Corporate America on the March for Billion Dollar Government Handouts / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
The billion-dollar march. As companies file into Washington to get in line for a government handout (cleverly disguised as a bailout!), the markets continue to mark down stocks in advance of the Christmas selling season. The TARP program, passed with the understanding that “toxic” bank debt would be purchased has been scuttled in favor of direct injection of capital into the banking system. Admittedly a better program, but the “on the fly” approach is making the market nervous that the powers that be do not have a mental grasp of the situation. A complicating factor is we are in the dead zone for both Congress and the President, making new policy creation tricky at best.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Critical Week for Global Stock Markets and Economic Recovery / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
We have pointed out several times that we think the recovery from the current recession will be U-shaped, with several tests of the low before a likely bottom is reached and a sustainable rally can begin.
According to recent research from JP Morgan, the next week or so could be an important period of time for the stock market.
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Monday, November 17, 2008
Value Stock Market Investing- The November Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Every fall, especially in opportunity rich markets like this, I encourage investors to think about some year-end strategies that make the final calendar quarter a special time in all markets. Several forces are at work, all of which have links to conventional Wall Street wisdom; none of which promote good long-term investment decision-making.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Flawed Central Banking System and Stocks Bear Market Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
In his genius, E.F. Schumaker foresaw the eventual demise of present day central banking long ago, and offers a workable solution that can both co-exit and operate within transition from failing fiat currency based economies flaming out due to accelerating inflation . And make no mistake about it – the global economy is flaming out – with all strata of economies soon to begin the decentralization process. One need only look at the collapse in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) for confirmation in this regard. The credit crisis, and lack of trust it sponsors between financial institutions both domestic and foreign alike, has crashed international trade markets the likes of which never witnessed in the history of mankind. As growing numbers begin to understand this condition is not temporary, but the future, process will take hold, and economies will increasingly regionalize.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 17th November / Stock-Markets / Futures Trading
The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. Closes below October's low crossing at 1136.75 would open the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 979.90 later this year. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1321.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 6.75 pts. at 1148.75 as of 5:48 AM CST.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Desperate Investors Seeking a Bottom in Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Yesterday I went into a local bank. Some guy working there I knew in high school stopped me on the way out. He wanted to know what I was doing in the market. He looked nervous. Maybe he was worrying about his 401k.
I told him “nothing.” “I've got a little position in something, but I have a lot of cash and I'm not doing anything. Hopefully it will go up,” I explained.
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Monday, November 17, 2008
Iceland Savings Account Freeze Thaws as G20 Meet / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
The G20 leaders showed a united front as they pledged to shore up global growth, introduce regulatory reform in a relatively short timeframe and avoid protectionism. However, the timeframe for resolution of these reforms is as soon as March 31st. Success will hinge on the new US Administration's willingness to take big decisions, a mere 2 months after taking office. US analysts think that it will make more sense to try and overcome the crisis first before implementing far-reaching reforms. These reforms include efforts to strengthen the credit derivative markets, create colleges of national supervisors to monitor global banks and provide guidance for valuation of illiquid securities. There will be a follow up summit on April 30th, probably in London.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Financial Markets Drama Continues as Eurozone Falls into Recession / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
World stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday. The FTSE finished the week down around 4%, but it was UK plc that took a battering. The Pound fell to record lows against the European single currency, even breaking through the synthetic Euro/ Deutsche Mark lows from 1996.The week's action was all the more damning considering the Eurozone's admission that it too is in a recession. The Euro managed to end the slightly down against the dollar, but the pound plunged through the 1.5000 level for the first time since 2002. However there is still some way to go before the low of 1.3685 from 2001 is breached.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Stock Market Showing Signs of a Tradeable Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over earlier than anticipated and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - There is a target of about 795-800 for the ending of the current phase of the decline. This target should be met next week. However, one cannot say for certain that a reversal will lead to a lasting rally.
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