Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Shadow Banking System Crumbling as Losses Double to $500 Billion / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: John_Mauldin
This week look at a short but very important piece by Bill Gross. He has my same concern about credit default swaps, but he puts a number to it. He thinks the cost to the world economic system could be in the $250 billion dollar range. Add that to the $250 billion in losses due to the subprime markets, and you are starting to talk real money. The Shadow Banking System is at the center of the problem. I trust you will find this of interest.
Bill Gross was just named Fixed Income Manager of the Year by Morningstar. He sits on the largest pile of bonds in the world at PIMCO and is their Managing Director.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Stock Markets Tumble on Nikkei 3 Year Lows and Citigroup Dividend Cut Expectations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell $6 from an overnight rally to $911 per ounce just before the London open on Tuesday, while Asian stocks fell and the US Dollar held at 7-week lows vs. the Euro and Japanese Yen.
Japan 's Nikkei fell 1 percent, finishing below 14,000 for the first time since November 2005 after Bank of Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui said Japan 's economic growth will "slow for some time."
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Monday, January 14, 2008
The Future of Investing 2008 : National Debt, Social Security, Medicare All Point Towards More Inflation / Stock-Markets / Investing
By: Chris_Ciovacco
As volatility increases in 2008, it will be important for us to continue to focus on the most important fundamental drivers of asset prices. If I had to choose only three words to describe the future of investing they would be debt and asset values. Debt and asset values have a significant impact on government policy. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Central Banks Entering Hyper Inflationary Money Supply End Game / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Captain_Hook
Central banks are now showering the economy with accelerating quantities of fiat digits like never before , which is having the effect of extending the current boom cycle even longer in spite of the natural tendency for system failure. Not too long from now however, and in spite of these efforts then, like a game of musical chairs enough participants will be expelled from the festivities in natural process, which is an eventuality that cannot be avoided no matter how much intervention is exercised. Moreover, it's the fact monetary debasement rates need be accelerated to this point that is the signal we are now in the final rounds of the game (end game dynamics), where like in musical chairs, if you are prepared and with a little luck one might be the one left standing at the end. And while this might sound fine for those prepared people, don't kid yourself, what's coming here is not going to be pleasant for anyone, as the hangover from the credit binge we have been on for some 25-years now will not pass in a day or two, meaning living standards are set to decay rapidly. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
Stock Market Indicators Becoming Bullish / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for
consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which
is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an
eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in process.
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Monday, January 14, 2008
Australian Stocks Attempted to Break Losing Streak / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Geoffrey_Transom
We mused on Friday if perhaps the Australian market might be able to break its losing spell this week - and it did its damnedest to do just that today, albeit after a very poor opening.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold, Bottom Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is likely to be at or near a short term bottom.
Short Term
My daily history of the S&P mid cap index (MID) begins in 1991. Including the period that ended last Tuesday there have been 3 occasions when the index has fallen for 9 consecutive days. The others were the period before and after 9/11/2001 and late August 1998. 9/11/2001 is obviously a special case, but there are numerous similarities between August 1998 and the current period including a threat to the financial system by the failure of Long Term Capital Management which, like Citibank, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide, was considered too big to fail.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Stock Market Update: Trading the Deceptive Triangle Bounce / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
I can't go publicly posting the charts members pay for, but I can say that, as an example, as the weekly update was being posted here last Saturday, TTC members, whether scalpers, swing traders or position traders, were all receiving several forward looking charts describing the big picture and laying out our plans for the days ahead. The chart below was such a one, showing the triangle that the concurrent update said “many traders see.” Well, the market rarely if ever gives the crowd what they're expecting. The chart above from the Saturday weekly forum shows our immediate expectation for a deceptive bounce that would have as many as possible trading the triangle only to reverse them down into the lower trendline.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Australian Stocks Continue Week Long Losing Streak / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Geoffrey_Transom
Crikey... seems like the Strayan market just can't get it's act together. Today marked the fifth successive session of decline for every All Ords market-cap sub-index except the ASX20 (which managed a gain yesterday), with average declines in the market-cap based subindices of 5% for the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Banks Doubling Down on Bad Debts As Merrill Lynch Writes Down $15billion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Merrill Lynch, the third largest U.S. securities firm, is expected to write down $15 billion in the fourth quarter, nearly twice as much as previously announced. Analysts had recently been expecting a $12 billion loss for the same period. Citigroup may face another $14 billion of losses, according to J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America may announce $5 billion of write-downs in collateralized debt obligations.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Stocks Bear Market - Dow Theory Proves Correct! / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
In spite of its criticisms, the Dow theory is once again proving correct. The one thing that the advance up out of the 2002 low has proven is that the single most important aspect of Dow theory is the concept of joint price confirmation above and below previous secondary high and low points. Basically, nothing else matters. In accordance with this basic concept, the primary trend first turned bullish on June 4, 2003. As the market advanced in the wake of mountains of liquidity the values did not make sense. Also, when looking at the phasing aspect of Dow theory it appeared that the rally out of the 2002 low was a giant secondary reaction and counter-trend advance. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
FIRE SALES of US Financial Assets - Fingers of Instability, Part 16 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue- 3 Fingers of Instability
- FIRE SALES!
- Nights of the Long Knives!
- Flights to Perceived Safety!
Introduction
Dear readers, I want to thank you all for a gratifying 2007, the support for Tedbits has been nothing short of phenomenal. We are now on many radar screens thanks to your interest in my work. The last month has been tumultuous and I had the mother of all colds/flu in late December and spent several weeks traveling around the globe until just before Christmas. So I rested my body and my brain and I now enter the New Year much rested and ready to rumble. I will be doing a short Tedbits this week and then do the 2008 forecast over a 2 to 4-week timeframe. There's a lot to cover in the forecast as the headlines are quite hysterical. The choir out of Wall Street is predictable BULL****! The big picture is very clear as I will illustrate to you in the 2008 forecast.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Monetary Inflation to be Joined by Price Inflation Crisis During 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Unproductive Assets, Wasted Productivity The US system has been the dog led by the financial sector tail, as the tail wags the dog, for over two decades. Systematically, the United States has abandoned manufacturing in favor of financial sector dominance with futile attempts to manage inflation, and money changers pushing to foreign lands the capacity that actually makes things and adds value. Such is the painful costly consequence of chronic monetary inflation. Unfortunately, the nation has invested heavily for decades in unproductive assets like military hardware and recently homes. The entire US Economy was made heavily dependent upon the housing boom and mortgage finance craze. Now that a housing crisis and mortgage debacle seems a nightmare without end, we are treated to utterly moronic opinions that the US Economy will glide through the storm. It will not. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Banking Index Sounding Stock Market Alarm Bells / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Marty_Chenard
Too often, investors only look at the short and medium term trends in the markets. When we have had a year with exceptionally damaging sub-prime problems, it is time to step back and look at 5+ and 15+ year views. It is only the longer term views that can give you a clear picture of how much damage has been done.
Today, we will look at 6 and 16 year views of the Banking Index ... symbol: BKX.
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Thursday, January 10, 2008
Important Stock Market Investment Drivers for 2008: A Tale of Two Halves / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
The beginning of a new year is a good time to make a new assessment of the important investment drivers and themes for the year. If you want to beat the market it is important to understand what is driving the markets and where are the best sectors to find good opportunities. By identifying these factors you will have a solid framework to assess the impact market movements and news events on your investment strategy. This is the first of a five part series on the outlook for the 2008 markets. The first part will discuss the key drivers ending with a mention of what sectors will benefit and those that will be hurt. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
2007: The Year of Debunked Financial Market Myths / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
- The “WEALTH AFFECT” is real and you can borrow yourself into perpetual prosperity.
- You can spend yourself rich.
- “It is different this time” and not all speculative manias collapse.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Chinese Stock Market Winning Streak To Continue During 2008 / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: Almost exactly a year ago, I told you how the U.S. economy was headed for more weakness while the Chinese economy would continue growing like a weed. And I suggested you "make it your New Year's resolution to add some Asian spice to your portfolio this year."
Look at what the markets have done since then: The S&P 500 was up just 3.5% in 2007; the Shanghai Composite Index, which measures the performance of mainland China stocks, skyrocketed 97%. That's on top of a 130% gain in 2006!
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Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Financial Markets and Economic Themes Remain The Same for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Bill_Bryan
Although our public writings were scant throughout the '07 calendar, we did indeed manage to maintain an active pulse on events, whereby many of our early prognostications ultimately materialized when the final bell tolled. With that said, let's move forward with a few thoughts and observations on what may possibly lie ahead in the forthcoming '08 campaign:
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Tuesday, January 08, 2008
US Stock Markets Developing Significant Topping Formations / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
A relatively impressive recovery rally during the final 30 minutes of
trading, or was it?
In fact, based on the pattern carved-out by the Q's, no upside reversal was
recorded.
The Q's certainly "looped" down again to retest this morning's low at 47.43, which held the onslaught (at 47.47), and which has helped turn the price structure to the upside for another run at key near term resistance at 48.50/65. But unless and until that resistance area is hurdled, I will not venture into the long side of the Q's. Why?
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Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Broading Stock Market Top Offers Proshare Shorting Profit Opportunities / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Donald_W_Dony
Much has been written recently about the current market conditions. Many research reports maintain the concept that new highs in the equity markets can be anticipated in the near future. Yet month after month, fundamental and technical evidence continues to build a picture of a cooling U.S. economy and the fledgling start of a mild recession. One of the earliest indicators of mounting economic weakness came from one of the most reliable indicators; the banks. Read full article... Read full article...