Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Dow Theory Stocks Primary Bear Market Confirmation / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
The primary bear market confirmation that occurred on November 21 st when the Industrials confirmed the Transport's break below the August closing low remains in place in spite of the recent rally. In fact, the rally that began out of the November 26th low was anticipated and I stated before this rally began that it was going to cause many to question the integrity surrounding the November 21st Dow Theory primary bear market confirmation. That has definitely proven correct.
Robert Rhea, who was the leading Dow theorist in the late 1920's and 1930's stated: “Charles H. Dow never intended his theory of price movements to be construed as being a method whereby the royal road to riches could be found. While the principles laid down by him and developed by William Peter Hamilton may assist us in understanding something of security price trends, it would nevertheless be a fallacy to undertake any discussion of the subject without making the point very clear that no dependable method of beating the market has yet been discovered. Intelligent observation and study of the ever-recurring formations in the averages which Dow and Hamilton noted can, however, prove invaluable to both investors and speculators.”
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Sunday, December 16, 2007
Stock Market Update: Stop the Insanity! / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
After a rollercoaster week, the S&P closed Friday on the lows of the week with a head and shoulders pattern looming in the 15-minute and hourly charts. Monday morning will have to decide if this bearish pattern gets played out, but it's also up against our bullish setup, so only the trader prepared for either outcome is truly prepared!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Bush's Housing Subprime Mortgage Bailout Plan - It's ugly, but it's all we have / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Dow Jones Industrial Averages soared 175 points on the day that the Bush Administration announced its housing bailout plan. Wall Street was wrong. It wasn't something to cheer about. The major argument against the bailout plan is that it keeps free market forces from clearing out all the toxic sludge built up in our housing and banking system. It is argued that the bailout will certainly prolong the pain and could exacerbate the housing and mortgage mess over the long haul. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 14, 2007
Worst Over for Banks, Financials and Home Builder Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Housing Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This is a bottom-fishing expedition, but my technical work on the Home Builders ETF (AMEX: XHB), sentiment, and the relatively strong action in Citigroup (NYSE: C) today despite continued bad financial press questioning its capital base, its breakup value, and the efficacy of its new leadership team all suggest that the "worst" names within the worst sector are about to recover. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 14, 2007
Sovereign Wealth Funds from China and Arab Countries Preventing Financial Crash / Stock-Markets / Sovereign Wealth Funds
By: John_Mauldin
This week in a Special Outside the Box good friend George Friedman of Stratfor, in an unconventional piece, addresses the conundrum that equates low interest rates with market illiquidity, postulating on what may be the underlying cause of such an event. George seems to specialize in Outside the Box thinking, and this piece is no exception.
Stratfor continues to provide insightful and pertinent research on economic and geopolitical events and their respective ramifications. Stratfor continues to generously provide significant savings to readers of Outside the Box, for further information please click here . For those like me who seek objective analysis of world affairs, Stratfor is a daily necessity.
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Thursday, December 13, 2007
Feds Actions Delaying Stock Market Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Brian_Bloom
Technically, the Fed's actions are still not driving the market to the upside. The best that could be claimed is the downside is being delayed.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Stock Market Investors Failing to Recognise Inevitable Credit Contraction Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Doug_Wakefield
While observing current events through the lens of history over the last few years, there have been times in which the only conclusion I could draw was that we were beginning a bear market that would prove much more severe than the one from 2000 to 2002. As fiat currency and money supplies have exploded the world over, we have seen a proliferation of products, with varying acronyms, as the financial world tries to distance itself from the risky loans it originated. My experiences, as a researcher and investment advisor, suggest that the root of the problem is in investors' thinking. Between the fall of 2002 and the spring of 2003, multiple markets began bull runs. As 2007 comes to a close, the only lesson most investors learned from the 7 trillion dollar loss of those years is to “hang on” when the market declines. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Greenspan: Housing and Stocks Bubbles Not My Fault / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Brady_Willett
In today's Wall Street Journal former Fed boss, Alan Greenspan, attempted yet again to explain why he wasn't to blame for all the ‘bubbles' that coincidentally transpired during his tenure. In the piece Greenspan adds color to the same storylines he has harped on before, those being 1) that he took the Federal Funds rate down to 1% because he was scared of deflation, and 2) crazy investors, not him, are to blame for the euphoric booms in stocks and real estate while he was Fed boss.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Markets Indicating a Freeze on Mortgage Resets is likely to Repair the Credit Narkets and Bolster Earnings Growth / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Greg_Silberman
As market practitioners we are more concerned with the markets reaction to news than the news itself. Yesterday's announcement that Variable Mortgage resets could be frozen for 5-years is telling in that regard.During the 1980s the international community got fed up with South Africa's Apartheid policies. Their response was to punish South Africa economically through broad sweeping trade sanctions (which ultimately brought the country to its knees). One far reaching measure was to shut the South African Government and its Corporations out of the international Debt markets. No new debt could be issued internationally.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Stock Market Index Ramped Higher by Vested Interests Pre Fed Rate Cut / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Brian_Bloom
The chart below provides evidence that the industrial equity market was “ramped” by vested interests in anticipation of the Fed rate decision.
Note how, following the Fed decision, the Dow Jones fell back below the intersection of the two trendlines – which is roughly where the technical resistance was before it was ramped.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Credit Bubble Bursting to Lead to Across the Board Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Christopher_Laird
Riding upon the greatest credit bubble in history, greater than anything ever –(my interpretation of Doug Noland) one has to wonder what the future holds, if that bubble is breaking. That bubble includes the greatest housing bubble in history, the greatest world stock and bond bubble.
Just for the US housing bubble, it is estimated that, in a mere 5 years since 2002, $5 trillion was both pulled out of US housing and also the housing stock rose that much in value. $10 trillion total.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Nasdaq in Post US Rate Cut Announcement Correction / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) are following the 25 bps script…entering a correction on expected, disappointing news from the FOMC, amidst extremely optimistic sentiment. Let's notice that the price structure is approaching a test of the Nov-Dec support line, now at 51.90, which my work argues will be violated on the way to at least 50.50 thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Investor Flight to Safety is Negative for Small Cap Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
The trickle down affect of the U.S. subprime debacle is more far reaching than most investors may suspect. The obvious surface reaction is the negative outcome in the financial and housing sectors. Stocks in these areas have seen their values plunge in recent months. In addition, the Fed is prepared to cut rates to help stabilize the markets and in doing so, pulls whatever frail amount of support that exists from under the U.S. dollar. This move, in turn, provides increasing upward pressure to gold. But the area that is equally important and often missed in the subprime fiasco is the reaction or need for safety from investors.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Credit Crunch Contagion Spreads - Stock Markets Could Crash 50% During 2008 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Captain_Hook
Make no mistake about it, the credit crunch is still spreading and contagious , and will remain that way until all debt that needs to be purged from the system has been expunged. Unfortunately for all concerned, with conditions in key factors displaying signs of Super-Cycle Degree tops, such as in demographic trends for example, this process could take longer than the current batch of bankers would prefer, and in fact likely scuttle the present day credit-based monetary system as a result. This is why one should not be surprised to see blank check policy and / or monetization rates continue accelerating moving forward, along with falling interest rates in bringing real yields down in an effort to support a faltering Western banking model. And because this is a global affair expect to see competitive devaluations begin to occur more frequently soon as well, which in total will continue to benefit precious metals in both relative and nominal measure as an increasingly stressed populations search for safe means to save wealth once again. In this sense, an entire era of speculation in paper assets is quickly turning the corner at present. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Strong Stock Markets as the Government Comes to the Rescue! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The government to the rescue! Early last week, it looked as though we would get serious about going lower, and then came a cash infusion for Citigroup and this week, the President announced a “bailout” for some homeowners – as long as you fit into the relatively narrow criterion. Stock investors, especially those in the housing/financing related issues took flight, rising by at least 10% over the past two weeks. The economy supported some of the move, as recessionary fears moved to the back burner.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Fed Panic! - Paulson's Subprime Mortgage Bailout is to Help the Banks not the People! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Mike_Whitney
A nation's economy is a reflection pool. The face that looks back from the water; is the face of the culture and the prevailing ethos. It's no different with America. The stewards of the US economic system—Paulson and Bernanke—are inextricably linked to a political/military establishment which has been thoroughly marinated in a culture of violence and corruption. Paulson's “Marshall Plan” for subprime homeowners is just the gloved hand of the despot. The other hand is still busy gouging out eyes at Guantanamo, or clubbing foreign nationals at CIA black sites, or dropping incendiary bombs on schoolchildren in Falluja. It's all the same. The culture of war and demagoguery has its roots in the economic system. Its financial leaders are just as culpable as any low-ranking GI at Abu Ghraib. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
US Housing Market Imploding! Japanese Yen Exploding! / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: While the mainstream media is cheering Washington's new bailout plan for homeowners, bad news keeps pouring out of the U.S. housing markets like the floodwaters of the Chehalis River:
The percentage of home loans in any stage of foreclosure surged 70% — from 1.05% a year earlier to 1.69% in the third quarter, the worst on record.
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
The Psychology of Investing in the Stock Market From 1996 to 2007 / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
By: David_Petch
Taxidermy refers to the job of taking the skins of dead animals and mounting them onto a plate of some form that depicts them in a naturally occurring state. With the era of photography and cartoons, this is not required for today's article. Instead, pictures are strategically placed onto the S&P 500 Index chart to “capture” what the general populous was thinking at a particular point in time.
One of the main reasons for this article taking along time to publish was finding the appropriate pictures. A picture is said to be worth 1000 words, so each picture is supposed to be representative of the thoughts of each individual at a certain point in the stock market cycle. The stock market is a barometer of how the economy is doing and the footprint left by the "tape" directly captures the summation of all participants. Many assume the market is a random beast that does not follow any particular pattern, but instead, quite the opposite is true.
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
Stock Market Update: The Remedy to Sideways Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
If Friday felt like a real sleeper, then I'm sorry to say we may have a few more days' sideways trading in store for us ahead of the Fed. At TTC we currently have three distinct patterns for this rally off the recent lows, but by Tuesday evening we'll be looking to have one or two of those invalidated. And as alternates are eliminated, we continue to buy and sell every wiggle.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Stock Market Overbought But Entering Bullish Seasonal Period / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market has come off a bottom and seasonally next week has a very positive bias.
Short Term : The market is overbought.
In the 8 trading days from the Monday after Thanksgiving through last Thursday the S&P 500 (SPX) was up 7.2%. Some other indices were up even more, the Dow Jones Transports up 11.7%.
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