Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, November 18, 2007
Stock Market Weekly Update: Rallies to Order / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Members and regular readers will find an important message about the future of TTC at the bottom of this update, but for now, let's simply recall a statement from last week: Now, just as some big names are calling this the end of the bull market, we're willing to go it alone and say this is probably closer to the end of the selling than the beginning, and, if that assessment is correct, we'll be seeing the market turn soon and rally hard, quite likely taking us to new highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Global Disparities Put Crack Up Inflationary Boom At Risk / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The oil market is out of control according to OPEC, where to go along with crude prices rapidly approaching $100 , China is having to raise fuel prices because of shortages. So, what's really happening here outside of what we will dub ‘pathetic' news coverage? As observed earlier in the week , with the Fed rapidly creating monetary aggregates to bailout it's floundering economy, US trading partners are having to compensate by upping their own currency debasement rates, as was openly admitted by Hong Kong authorities just yesterday , which is fuelling global hyperinflationary conditions. And again, to paraphrase OPEC in terms of what we can expect for oil prices, ‘it's out of control'. Or, in other words ‘the sky is the limit', where irreparable damage is currently being done to long-term global growth prospects due to disparities between Western economies and emerging markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Stock Markets Headed Higher in Seasonally Strong Period / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: · The market is oversold going into a seasonally strong period.
Short Term : Last Monday the market extended its decline to a fourth consecutive down day setting up for the big counter trend rally on Tuesday. After rallying on Tuesday the Russell 2000 (R2K) fell for 3 consecutive days for the first time since last August. In this calendar year the R2K has not declined for more than 3 consecutive days so a rally is due.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
NY Stock Exchange Contracting Margin Debt Levels Sending Bearish Message / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Yesterday, I looked at the NYSE Margin Debt levels. On a short term basis, they don't tell you a whole lot, but from a longer term perspective they do tell a story.
Sometimes, I think of the NYSE margin levels as being similar to monetary liquidity or credit crunch conditions. When margin debt is expanding, investors are confident and expose themselves to more risk in expectation of a rising stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Bearish Stock Market Signal - Dow Jones Transports Non-Confirmation of Industrials / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
Back in August when both the Industrials and the Transports moved down below their June lows many were calling that a Dow theory sell signal. I wrote here in early August that this was not the case. It is now time for another update on Dow theory.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Is the NASDAQ Bull Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
Recently, the NASDAQ has been outperforming all the other indexes including the DJIA and the S&P. However, the recent pull back in the market raises the question are we seeing another buyable low in the NASDAQ or is this the start of a more significant move down. Let's look at a couple of charts to see what they might tell us.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 16, 2007
Stocks Bull Markets Climb a Wall of Fear / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
After the party comes the hangover, and of course the bigger the party, the bigger the hangover. Over the last few years, financial companies have been gorging themselves on 'foolproof' credit trades, based on sub prime debt. Now the party is over and companies are having to face up to their antics in the cold light of day, says BetOnMarkets.com's Michael Wright.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 16, 2007
Dow Jones Stock Market Index Gives On Balance Volume Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
November 19th 2007 - Revisited : The chart below is a close-up of the Dow Jones Industrial Index as at close of business in the USA on November 15th 2007 (courtesy bigcharts.com )
This looks suspiciously like an OBV sell signal to me. The primary argument of the protagonists of On-Balance-Volume (invented by Joseph Granville) is that ‘volume precedes price'. Therefore, an OBV sell signal should precede a decline in stock prices and we should expect a sell signal in price.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Will the Fed Continue to Inflate the Stock Market By Printing Money? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
The 100 Dollar Bill drop - In spite of money drops and liquidity injections we continue to see a volatile scary stock market. Will the Fed ultimately lose control and the stock market deflate or will the money presses continue to levitate the stocks at the expense of the Dollar?
The market got its ¼ point rate cut on Wednesday the 31 st of October and has been slaughtered ever since. Gee, thanks a lot Mr Bernanke!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Peak Oil $100 to Deflate Global Stock Markets Speculative Bubble / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
For the vast majority of Americans who usually don't follow trends in the crude oil futures market, the Global “Oil Shock” only caught their attention after gasoline prices suddenly jumped 15% at the pump this month. Last week, West Texas Sweet crude oil surged to an all-time high of $98.62 /barrel, and greased the skids under the Dow Jones Industrials for a 4% plunge to the 13,000 level, zapping the value of investors' 401k accounts.Guy Caruso, the head of the US Energy Information Administration, told reporters on Nov 12th, that the average price US consumers pay for gasoline should rise by another 20-cents a gallon over the next two to three weeks, at the pump. “We haven't seen the full pass-through of high oil prices yet,” he warned.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Stock Market Mania and the Trade of a Life Time / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Susan C. Walker of Elliott Wave International writes: When you're caught in the middle of a bad storm, you don't really care whether it's a tropical depression or a full-strength hurricane. You just know you're hanging on for dear life. The same idea applies to financial markets. When a market is trending up strongly, it's hard to tell whether it's just a bull market or a more dangerous financial mania.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
NOLTE NOTES A Volatile Period As Stock Markets Nosedive in the face of Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
Ok, so the stock slump we have been looking for was more along the lines of a cliff dive. Worries over the dollar, oil, sub-prime write-offs and the housing markets all conspired last week to push markets down over 4% for the week. Global warming hurt the retail industry, as consumers stayed away from buying their winter garb just yet. We're still confused as to what constitutes “good” weather for shopping. The government's official stats will be released this week and should show retail sales slowed significantly from September's pace.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Nasdaq Ripe for Potent Recovery Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The Q's made yet another new reaction low this morning at 49.60, prior to reversing for a rally above 50.00. The new corrective low pierced but did not sustain below key 50% Fibonacci support at 49.80, which is a constructive sign that perhaps the vicious decline has seen its worst for now. My near-term work has turned up in a strong way, suggesting too that the Q's are ripe for a potent recovery rally period that should propel prices into the 51.50-52.00 target zone.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Next Phase of the Financial Markets Credit Crunch Crisis: The Great Ratings Debacle / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
Martin Weiss and Mike Larson write: Evidence of an imminent U.S. recession is now piling up so high, even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had to admit to a slowdown in his testimony to Congress last week …
The housing crisis is gutting the home equity of millions of households, abruptly ending their ability to use it as a personal ATM machine.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Trading Game - 150+ Years of Grand Super Cycle Advance is Still Alive and Well / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
Classic Elliott Wave Theory implies that there are nine degrees of trend that drive the broad based indices.
The trend that most are concerned with is the long-term or Primary Trend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Stock Market ABC Correction Completing - Bull Market End of Year Rally to Begin This Week ? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The S&P Closed on Friday at 1453, hitting more or less the target for the ABC correction low which coincided with the bull markets major support trend line, which now technically implies that that should be it for this sell off and for the bull market to re-exert itself.
How can I be bullish in the face of all the bearish news ?
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Week Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
This week will be interesting to say the least. The large drops were very worrisome but expected in some ways. Internal indicators have been weak in this rally which led me to believe that we would get some sort of a selloff before the year end rally. But timing these selloffs is very tricky.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Stock Market Weekly Update: Trading by Numbers / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
It was nice to see more of our membership coming in tune with the rhythm of Wall Street this week rather than always being stuck a move behind. The gems in the Nasdaq finally turned into trash this week and, with the help of the financials, had the whole market trading lower. We don't tend to buy high-flyers or sell into holes, but this week really had most Ellioticians scratching their heads.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Loss of Confidence in the US Markets As Credit Crunch Spreads from the Subprime to the Prime / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
America is finished, washed up, kaput. Foreign investors and central banks around the world have lost confidence in US markets and are headed for the exits. The dollar is sinking, the country is insolvent, and its leaders are barking mad. That's bad for business. Investors are voting with their feet. They've had enough. Capital is flowing to China and the Far East in a torrent. It's "sayonara" Manhattan and “Hello” Tiananmen Square.Want some advice? Learn Mandarin.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 11, 2007
US Stock Markets Oversold But More Downside Expected / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: · The blue chip decline is accelerating which suggests we are approaching at least an intermediate term low.
Short Term
This year there have been 3 sharp declines, the first in late February – early March the second in Late July – early August and last week.