Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Stock Market Investors Failing to Recognise Inevitable Credit Contraction Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Doug_Wakefield
While observing current events through the lens of history over the last few years, there have been times in which the only conclusion I could draw was that we were beginning a bear market that would prove much more severe than the one from 2000 to 2002. As fiat currency and money supplies have exploded the world over, we have seen a proliferation of products, with varying acronyms, as the financial world tries to distance itself from the risky loans it originated. My experiences, as a researcher and investment advisor, suggest that the root of the problem is in investors' thinking. Between the fall of 2002 and the spring of 2003, multiple markets began bull runs. As 2007 comes to a close, the only lesson most investors learned from the 7 trillion dollar loss of those years is to “hang on” when the market declines. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Greenspan: Housing and Stocks Bubbles Not My Fault / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Brady_Willett
In today's Wall Street Journal former Fed boss, Alan Greenspan, attempted yet again to explain why he wasn't to blame for all the ‘bubbles' that coincidentally transpired during his tenure. In the piece Greenspan adds color to the same storylines he has harped on before, those being 1) that he took the Federal Funds rate down to 1% because he was scared of deflation, and 2) crazy investors, not him, are to blame for the euphoric booms in stocks and real estate while he was Fed boss.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Markets Indicating a Freeze on Mortgage Resets is likely to Repair the Credit Narkets and Bolster Earnings Growth / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Greg_Silberman
As market practitioners we are more concerned with the markets reaction to news than the news itself. Yesterday's announcement that Variable Mortgage resets could be frozen for 5-years is telling in that regard.During the 1980s the international community got fed up with South Africa's Apartheid policies. Their response was to punish South Africa economically through broad sweeping trade sanctions (which ultimately brought the country to its knees). One far reaching measure was to shut the South African Government and its Corporations out of the international Debt markets. No new debt could be issued internationally.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Stock Market Index Ramped Higher by Vested Interests Pre Fed Rate Cut / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Brian_Bloom
The chart below provides evidence that the industrial equity market was “ramped” by vested interests in anticipation of the Fed rate decision.
Note how, following the Fed decision, the Dow Jones fell back below the intersection of the two trendlines – which is roughly where the technical resistance was before it was ramped.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Credit Bubble Bursting to Lead to Across the Board Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Christopher_Laird
Riding upon the greatest credit bubble in history, greater than anything ever –(my interpretation of Doug Noland) one has to wonder what the future holds, if that bubble is breaking. That bubble includes the greatest housing bubble in history, the greatest world stock and bond bubble.
Just for the US housing bubble, it is estimated that, in a mere 5 years since 2002, $5 trillion was both pulled out of US housing and also the housing stock rose that much in value. $10 trillion total.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Nasdaq in Post US Rate Cut Announcement Correction / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) are following the 25 bps script…entering a correction on expected, disappointing news from the FOMC, amidst extremely optimistic sentiment. Let's notice that the price structure is approaching a test of the Nov-Dec support line, now at 51.90, which my work argues will be violated on the way to at least 50.50 thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Investor Flight to Safety is Negative for Small Cap Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
The trickle down affect of the U.S. subprime debacle is more far reaching than most investors may suspect. The obvious surface reaction is the negative outcome in the financial and housing sectors. Stocks in these areas have seen their values plunge in recent months. In addition, the Fed is prepared to cut rates to help stabilize the markets and in doing so, pulls whatever frail amount of support that exists from under the U.S. dollar. This move, in turn, provides increasing upward pressure to gold. But the area that is equally important and often missed in the subprime fiasco is the reaction or need for safety from investors.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Credit Crunch Contagion Spreads - Stock Markets Could Crash 50% During 2008 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Captain_Hook
Make no mistake about it, the credit crunch is still spreading and contagious , and will remain that way until all debt that needs to be purged from the system has been expunged. Unfortunately for all concerned, with conditions in key factors displaying signs of Super-Cycle Degree tops, such as in demographic trends for example, this process could take longer than the current batch of bankers would prefer, and in fact likely scuttle the present day credit-based monetary system as a result. This is why one should not be surprised to see blank check policy and / or monetization rates continue accelerating moving forward, along with falling interest rates in bringing real yields down in an effort to support a faltering Western banking model. And because this is a global affair expect to see competitive devaluations begin to occur more frequently soon as well, which in total will continue to benefit precious metals in both relative and nominal measure as an increasingly stressed populations search for safe means to save wealth once again. In this sense, an entire era of speculation in paper assets is quickly turning the corner at present. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 10, 2007
Strong Stock Markets as the Government Comes to the Rescue! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The government to the rescue! Early last week, it looked as though we would get serious about going lower, and then came a cash infusion for Citigroup and this week, the President announced a “bailout” for some homeowners – as long as you fit into the relatively narrow criterion. Stock investors, especially those in the housing/financing related issues took flight, rising by at least 10% over the past two weeks. The economy supported some of the move, as recessionary fears moved to the back burner.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Fed Panic! - Paulson's Subprime Mortgage Bailout is to Help the Banks not the People! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Mike_Whitney
A nation's economy is a reflection pool. The face that looks back from the water; is the face of the culture and the prevailing ethos. It's no different with America. The stewards of the US economic system—Paulson and Bernanke—are inextricably linked to a political/military establishment which has been thoroughly marinated in a culture of violence and corruption. Paulson's “Marshall Plan” for subprime homeowners is just the gloved hand of the despot. The other hand is still busy gouging out eyes at Guantanamo, or clubbing foreign nationals at CIA black sites, or dropping incendiary bombs on schoolchildren in Falluja. It's all the same. The culture of war and demagoguery has its roots in the economic system. Its financial leaders are just as culpable as any low-ranking GI at Abu Ghraib. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 09, 2007
US Housing Market Imploding! Japanese Yen Exploding! / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: While the mainstream media is cheering Washington's new bailout plan for homeowners, bad news keeps pouring out of the U.S. housing markets like the floodwaters of the Chehalis River:
The percentage of home loans in any stage of foreclosure surged 70% — from 1.05% a year earlier to 1.69% in the third quarter, the worst on record.
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
The Psychology of Investing in the Stock Market From 1996 to 2007 / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
By: David_Petch
Taxidermy refers to the job of taking the skins of dead animals and mounting them onto a plate of some form that depicts them in a naturally occurring state. With the era of photography and cartoons, this is not required for today's article. Instead, pictures are strategically placed onto the S&P 500 Index chart to “capture” what the general populous was thinking at a particular point in time.
One of the main reasons for this article taking along time to publish was finding the appropriate pictures. A picture is said to be worth 1000 words, so each picture is supposed to be representative of the thoughts of each individual at a certain point in the stock market cycle. The stock market is a barometer of how the economy is doing and the footprint left by the "tape" directly captures the summation of all participants. Many assume the market is a random beast that does not follow any particular pattern, but instead, quite the opposite is true.
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
Stock Market Update: The Remedy to Sideways Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
If Friday felt like a real sleeper, then I'm sorry to say we may have a few more days' sideways trading in store for us ahead of the Fed. At TTC we currently have three distinct patterns for this rally off the recent lows, but by Tuesday evening we'll be looking to have one or two of those invalidated. And as alternates are eliminated, we continue to buy and sell every wiggle.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Stock Market Overbought But Entering Bullish Seasonal Period / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market has come off a bottom and seasonally next week has a very positive bias.
Short Term : The market is overbought.
In the 8 trading days from the Monday after Thanksgiving through last Thursday the S&P 500 (SPX) was up 7.2%. Some other indices were up even more, the Dow Jones Transports up 11.7%.
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Saturday, December 08, 2007
Wall Street Ponzi Scheme - Confidence, Perception and the Ideal Investment Solution / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: David_Morgan
My struggle in this ponzi scheme of Wall Street Finance goes much deeper. I ultimately ask myself where is this all headed. I could write a book on the daily manipulations and tactics that are used to keep this game going. But I want to take this into another direction. One of the reasons to invest to precious metals centers on the actions and thoughts of the so-called men in charge of the USA. I believe there is an elite class that really pulls the levers of this country, and the politicians are simply the tools, which they use as cover. I do not want to sound like an alarmist or a conspiracist. I want you to judge the facts and make your own decision.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty of the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Risk Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Ubiquity, Complexity Theory and Sandpiles
- Fingers of Instability
- A Stable Disequilibrium
- General Equilibrium with Endogenous Uncertainty
- Identity Theft and New York
How does the risk of default in California or Thailand get spread throughout the world, causing problem in money market funds in Europe and Florida? Yes, we can trace the linkages now, but was it possible to predict the crisis beforehand? And can we use what we learn to predict and hopefully hedge ourselves from the next crisis? Why do these things seem to be happening with more frequency? This week we are going to look at some economic theories which will give us some insight into the above questions. As it turns out, the more that individuals hedge their risk in economic markets - the larger the network - the more the entire system is put at risk. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right in.
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Saturday, December 08, 2007
Subprime Housing Crash Gets Political - The Big Five Year Mortgage Rate Freeze Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The blame game is beginning and fingers are now being pointed at political appointees (usually given their jobs because of massive donations). Roland Arnall, founder of Ameriquest and current Ambassador to the Netherlands is a rather prominent target. “ Indeed, a host of class-action suits have been launched over the last two years which accuse the former Ameriquest of having engaged in predatory practices (the company was sold this year after it settled one suit for $325m, without acknowledging wrongdoing). Some American lawyers and subprime borrowers are now threatening to turn their fire on Mr Arnall as well – notwithstanding his current job in the Hague.”
Henry Paulson has a long and winding road ahead.
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Friday, December 07, 2007
Wall Street Once Again Resumes Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Wall Street resumed its rally this week after new data showed the overall economy is holding up, but isn't so strong as to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates says Betonmarket's Michael Wright. The Dow Jones industrial average saw an increase of nearly 200 points on Wednesday.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
End of the US Banking and Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Jim_Willie_CB
In the last month a tectonic shift has taken place among central bankers. To be sure, the USDollar is aided if foreign central banks end their march to raise official interest rates. The USDollar has been propped up for over two years in large part from powerful credit market carry trades that used to exploit higher USTreasury bond yields, both the short-term and long-term variety. The US Federal Reserve has been forced kicking and screaming to reduce official Fed Funds rates, all the while denying a grotesque contagion from the bond world to the bank world to the economy on Main Street . The USFed looks bound by the bond market to continue to cut interest rates, much like a large dog is led by a spiked choker around its neck, urged to obey its master's orders via vicious tugs. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Mega Trends - What China and India's Nouveau Riche Want to Buy / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes:The term "nouveau riche," or "new money," refers to people who, through rapid acquisition of wealth, now have the ability to buy things that were previously out of their reach.
In the U.S., it applies to individuals. But in Asia, it applies to entire nations .
So today, I want to talk about how people in India and China are going nuts for high-end consumer goods, especially jewelry.
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