Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Stock Market Update: Work Ethic of an Unbiased Trader / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Dominick
I hope you had an enjoyable, restful holiday week. But, if you're like me you've been looking forward to the end of these shortened weeks and can't wait to get back to some heavy volume trading! Friday's close left the immediate term outlook very muddled with many different patterns still viable, but as usual we're content to show up day after day to trade whatever the market offers. All the ambiguity of the current setup means is that anyone who now says they know exactly what will happen next is probably wrong!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Stock and Investment Markets Outlook for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: William_R_Thomson
Gazing into the crystal ball for investing in 2008 - Cash may be king for the moment but financial experts favour a plunge back into equity markets later in the year
A 'YEAR of fear' for portfolio investors - or a time of great opportunity? This is the question The Business Times put to a panel of financial experts as 2007 draws to a close. Their answers contained some surprises. Cash may be king for the moment, in the immediate aftermath of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, and the worst is yet to come in equity markets.
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Saturday, December 29, 2007
Stock Market Increasing Volatility Signaling a Powerful Move / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
A big market decision is approaching: Expect increasing market Volatility in the coming days ... and then a powerful move afterwards.
The reason : Everyday, we track the Long Term Inflowing Liquidity going into the markets. This is a liquidity driven market, so this is an important underlying element to what the stock market does.
(This study is posted daily on the paid subscriber website.)
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Current Stock Market Conditions from both a Dow Theory and a Cyclical Perspective / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
As I'm sure you all know, I have been saying for quite some time that the equity markets have been operating within one of the longest 4-year cycles in stock market history. This is not some hollow or shallow opinion in which I'm letting the wish father the thought. In reality, I wish that I could tell you the 4-year cycle low is behind us, because that would certainly make my job much easier as that is what the majority of the public seem to want to believe. In any event, I do not align myself with popular opinion to make my job easier. Rather, my opinion is based strictly on statistical analysis and very specific indicators. As we move into 2008, the statistics nor the indicators have changed in regard to this matter. Therefore, my opinion continues to be that the 4-year cycle low still lies ahead. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Stock Markets Weaken as Credit Crisis Hits Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Citigroup is now expected to cut its dividend by 40%. Moreover, management is now expected to increase its estimated write-offs from $11 billion to $18.7 billion. Citi's CEO, Charles Prince lost his job, but not all the fat bonuses he'd collected in previous years.
Merrill Lynch is forecast by Goldman Sachs analysts to have an $11.5 billion write-off this quarter. That's after an $7.9 billion hit and a 94% loss in revenues in the third quarter . Merrill's ex-CEO, Stan O'Neal left with $161 million in his back pocket.
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Friday, December 28, 2007
Five Mega-Trends Unfolding In 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: The last 12 months have seen monumental shifts in the interest rate and real estate markets. And if I'm right about where things are headed, 2008 should be just as exciting, if not more.
Naturally, I can't give away the entire store here. More precise forecasts and profitable recommendations are reserved for loyal subscribers to Safe Money Report , who will be getting a potentially lucrative gala outlook issue shortly.
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Friday, December 28, 2007
Stock, Commodities and Financial Market Forecasts for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I've enjoyed spending time with my loved ones this Christmas here in sunny, South Florida. It's so great to have the whole family together!
My hope is that your home is also filled with warmth and joy this holiday season, and I wish you and your family a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!
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Wednesday, December 26, 2007
FTSE 100 Index 2008 UK Stock Market Forecast 2008 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Doom and Gloom pervades the UK economy as we enter into 2008, which is 'usually' an excellent atmosphere for stocks, especially if that doom and gloom to date has not resulted in anything other than corrections. Not even the crash in the financial sector that has seen many big banks fall by as much as 50% off their 2007 highs has managed to dent the FTSE 100 Index with barely registerable declines on the long-run FTSE 100 chart.
Speculation is rife of a high risk of a recession for the UK economy during 2008. However the last analysis in this current series for 2008 on UK GDP growth concluded with the opinion that despite early year weakness the UK economy will avoid a recession, this coupled with falling interest rates will be supportive of the UK stock market during 2008.
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Wednesday, December 26, 2007
EXIT 2007: A Year of Denials of the Bad Loans Credit Crisis and Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The spirit of the holiday should not be denied despite the mayhem building at an unstoppable clip. For a break, enjoy a cute HOLIDAY SONG with touch of class & soul, even a hint of the Derbingle (Bing Crosby), with a promise of pure good taste (click here ).
Wall Street is in deep sneakers. They are busy putting a positive spin on 2007, which in mid-year unleashed the beginning of an unstoppable nightmare. The first cracks were revealed in gory fashion in the form of subprime mortgages blasting fissures through the entire bank and bond system. The next cracks will blossom into a mindboggling series of shocks next year.
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Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Electrifying America : Social Meanings of a New Technology - Book review / Stock-Markets / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
Commonly taken for granted in today's society, a century ago the electrification of modern lighting and home and industrial activities was cutting edge technology. Other than those brief periods when an ice storm or summer thundershower disrupts service, few tend to remember how extensive and relatively recent the changes in our lives that electricity has provided.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Financial Markets in Denial of Collapsing Credit Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Christopher_Laird
The ECB just lent out an astounding half $Trillion worth of money to 390 banks in only one day this week. It was to combat the lending freeze in Europe where banks are refusing to lend to each other over concerns about the mortgage losses this year. The demand was so high it caused alarm.
The question that comes to mind is, ‘Hey, we have a first class financial emergency here, when are the stock markets going to react accordingly?'
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Sunday, December 23, 2007
China Infrastructure Growth: It's Not About Beijing 2008 Olympics / Stock-Markets / China Economy
By: Chip_Hanlon
Stop it! Please just stop.
I saw it yet again yesterday: another commentator talked about how China 's economy should keep chugging along through the 2008 Olympics in Beijing , particularly its appetite for commodities due to its infrastructure needs ahead of that event. Sometimes I hear it said that the trend might last through 2010 and the World Expo in Shanghai for similar reasons.
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Sunday, December 23, 2007
Stock Markets Entering Strongest Seasonal Period - 2008 Presidential Year Cycle Strength / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are in the seasonally strongest period of the year. Since 1928, during the last 5 trading days of the year, the S&P 500 (SPX) has been up 82% of the time with an average gain of 1.11%. During the 3 rd year of the Presidential Cycle it has been up 95% of the time. 1987 was the only down year.
Short Term - Seasonal considerations overwhelm everything else in the short term.
Intermediate Term - Indicators of all styles and durations get distorted this time of the year when the market drifts upward on low volume with the secondaries leading.
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Stock Markets Extremely Undervalued Under the IBES Valuation Model / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Clif_Droke
Two tectonic plates and “The Big One” - We've all heard it before: The next major depression is expected to begin sometime around 2011-2012 and continue its ravaging impact until about 2014-2016. This belief has become so accepted among cycle theorists as to be almost a type of gospel.
And based on a purely deterministic interpretation of the K-wave and long-term Kress cycles, this outcome would make sense. Some persuasive arguments of this theory have even been advanced from a demographic perspective (see “The Next Great Bubble Boom” by Harry Dent and “Baby Boomers, Generation X and Social Cycles” by Edward Cheung, for example).
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Silent Stock Market Crash in the Banking Sector / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
There weren't many voices last weekend calling for a bullish reversal and rally in stocks. Come to think of it, were there any besides TTC at all? It seems that once again, just as in about the last dozen or so major market turns, this newsletter was alone in championing a bullish count while the entire online analysis community grew increasingly bearish and insisted the top was in. Now as a strong finish to the week puts us back within about 70 points of the all-time highs, bears are again forced to rethink their positions in the face of a market that threatens to grind higher through year-end and could still potentially explode upwards.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Pop Go the Liquidity Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Pop Go the Bubbles
- Lights for Myanmar, Water for Darfur
- A Half A Trillion Here and There
- Consumer Spending is Up? Wait, Is It Down?
- The Presidential Race
- Family, Christmas, and Home
Consumer spending was much stronger than thought in November, yet Circuit City Stores Inc., Best Buy Co. and other retailers that warned of a slump in purchases. A private report today showed consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in more than two years in December. The stock market chooses to see all things bullish, and so it powers ever upward. This week we take a brief look at the consumer, recent "shock and awe" central bank actions, money supply and more, trying to see how it all fits together.
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Real Estate Pro's Head for the Exit as Bush Asks Banks to "Come Clean" on Losses / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The U.S. housing recession has worsened since the credit collapse in August. Because of it, economic growth will slow to an approximate 1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, according to estimates given by economists to Bloomberg News . President George W. Bush said he's concerned about the housing slump dragging on the economy and said financial institutions must be open about how much they may lose because of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Greed, Fear and Market Manipulation as Wall Street Bonuses Rise / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Andy_Sutton
Lessons of 2007 - Yesterday I had the opportunity to take a rather remarkable group of young people to a regional business competition. This was an actual competition, not one of these contrived events where everyone wins and hand wringing is out in full force. All in all, the group did rather well with one student winning her category, and two others placing 4th in a team event. For a group of 8 I was rather pleased. I also came to see the full scope of human emotion that ensued in the hours after the competition. The rest of us should be so lucky to have the life experience that transpired yesterday although I didn't realize it myself until those early hours of the morning when the world is silent and still and permits us time for reflection.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital Injections Will Fail to Increase Commercial Bank Lending / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
When economists discuss investment in real capital expenditures they make a distinction between gross and net. If investment expenditures just match the depreciation of capital equipment, then gross investment rises, but net investment is unchanged. Increases in net investment, not gross investment, are what matters with regard to the future productivity of the economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
US Bailout of Bond Insurers to Prevent Collapse of US Banking System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The hidden bond insurers used by Wall Street firms are in the news, especially ACA Capital and MBIA. Implications are huge, with monumental ripple effects. Financial press reporting of the bond insurers is woefully inadequate. Moodys and Fitch are giving analysis review to nine ‘AAA' rated bond insurers to see if they have sufficient capital to conduct their insurance operations. The list includes ACA Capital, MBIA, Ambac Financial, and Financial Guaranty Insurance. ACA Capital has only $1.1 billion in cash for payout of bond failure claims, but has lost $1 billion in the most recent quarter. More losses are assured. This insurer is very important, since it is widely abused by Wall Street banks to hide cratered bond derivative losses. Read full article... Read full article...