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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Stock Market VIX Term Structure / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Ed_Carlson

The VIX term structure illustrates, by maturity, market expectations of volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. The chart (figure 1) below shows the option market's expectation of future market volatility as of last Friday. Currently, the VIX term structure is the steepest it has been in several months. This is a sign of complacency among market participants. Contrarians consider this to be bearish for the equity market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Dow On Breakout....S&P 500 and Nasdaq At Critical Resistance.....Froth Rising Fast.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Jack_Steiman

No shock that the area of the market that has the lowest P/E's and the highest dividends broke out first. The Dow has been the safety trade by far and continues to be so. The S&P 500 is a point away. A move over 1897 is the breakout for the S&P 500, and with today's close basically at the highs, it bodes well that it should break out over time. The Nasdaq, however, is also trying for a breakout, but it's quite different than the breakout of the Dow or S&P 500. The Nasdaq is trying to just get through its 50-day exponential moving average and trend line. We close a point above the 50's, but does not mean we have a true breakout yet. Give me at least half a percent if not a full percent, and I'm happier that the move is for real.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

The Good, the Bad and the Investor Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Investing 2014

By: Frank_Holmes

The press is demanding the attention of investors more than ever. Whether it was the recent jobs report or last week’s testimony from Janet Yellen, sorting through the market noise is no easy task. Since the world is so interconnected from Facebook to WhatsApp, a spark of news can ignite unfounded fear in an instant. What’s truly significant when it comes to your investments?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Stock Market Crash to New All Time High Dow 16,695 S&P1897 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to confound perma bear rhetoric that has seen virtually every minor correction of the past 5 YEARS as the start of a bear market or worse an always imminent crash that has succeeded in scaring most retail investors out of bull market for its duration. When the reality is that if a crash has been taking place than it has been to the UPSIDE as illustrated by the Dow in the face of this time the "'Top is In' mantra resolving to close up another 112 points at 16,695 marking its 3rd closing new all time high of the year whilst the S&P added 18.17 to close at a new high of 1896.65.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 12, 2014

SPX Stocks Index Stalls Beneath Its Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

What if SPX does not make a new high? This is my Wave Structure going into the weekend. The Dow made a new high today, but so far the SPX has not. This is indicative of (a defensive) rotation into the Blue Chips out of the momentum stocks.

What is interesting is that today is a highly charged Pivot Day. Should we see a turn down today or tomorrow without making a new high in SPX, we may see a setup for an explosive move to the downside.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 12, 2014

U.S. Dollar/Yen Dynamics and the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / US Dollar

By: Michael_Pento

It is imperative to understand the dynamics between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese Yen in order to grasp what is occurring across international markets. Investors have been borrowing Yen at nearly zero percent interest rates and buying higher-yielding assets located worldwide. These market savvy institutions and individuals realize that buying income producing assets, which are backed by a currency that is gaining value against the Yen, is a win-win trade.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 12, 2014

Stock Market Support and Resistance Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - Probably tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 12, 2014

Stocks Continue To Fluctuate, Will They Trend Up Or Top Out? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are still favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 12, 2014

Stock Market on the Brink of a Sharp Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Toby_Connor

In today's post I'm going to make the case for stocks moving down into a sharp correction over the next 4 weeks.

To begin we need to examine the last two intermediate cycles. Normally an intermediate cycle will run roughly 22 weeks. Well in our case the last two cycles were both stretched to 32 weeks by the Fed's QE3 programs. As you can see in the next chart both intermediate cycles had 4 smaller daily cycles embedded within them. This is pretty unusual as most intermediate cycles only have 2 or 3 daily cycles nested within. The market is now in desperate need of a short cycle to balance out these two long cycles.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 12, 2014

Stock Market Topping - The Commodities Inflation Has Begun / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Toby_Connor

Just like the topping process in 2007/08 the rotation of inflation out of the stock market and into the commodity markets has begun.

Notice that since the first taper in December the stock market has stagnated and gone basically nowhere for the last 4 months. During that period inflation has begun to leak into the commodity markets. This is the same process that occurred as stocks topped in 2007/08.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Why the Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Investment_U

Marc Lichtenfeld writes: We had a bit of a scare in the markets last month. At one point, the S&P 500 fell more than 4%, causing some permabears to proudly proclaim that the "bubble" had burst.

Of course, they're not quite so vocal now that the market has rebounded and is back within 1% of its all-time high.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Are Stock Market Valuations Really Too High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: John_Mauldin

The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking.

I try to spend a significant part of my time researching and thinking about things that will tell me why my current belief system is wrong, testing my opinions against the ideas of others, some of whom are genuine outliers.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Why Hedge Funds Became Endangered Species / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Andrew_McKillop

Long Illnesses End That Way
The history of the hedge funds isn't written. Attempts at explaining how they started always focus the late-1960s “fluttering heartbeat of modern capitalism”. Stock price volatility increased, and prices started declining, sometimes by a lot, as economic growth declined and inflation rose in several G7 countries. This is the 'classic explanation' why the funds emerged. The London Gold Pool panic of March 1968 is often cited as a key tipping point and date.  After that, hedge funds had a rationale!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 10, 2014

More Upside Still Expected For Stocks SPX/SPY Before Aggressive Sell off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: WavePatternTraders

SPY

A new week, same outcome.

This seems to be same message every week, up down up down, if you are getting dizzy because of this price action you are not alone with those thoughts. I suspect the market is still currently in an ending diagonal for what I think is a 5th wave to complete a larger 5 wave advance from the Oct 2011 lows.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Stock Market Awaits the Nasdaq / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Tony_Caldaro

The US markets spent the entire week in a narrow range of SPX 1860 to 1889, which occurred between 10am Wednesday and noon Thursday. The low, in fact, was hit just before FED chair Yellen addressed Congress, and the high occurred right after she addressed the Senate. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, the NDX/NAZ were -1.1%, and the DJ World was -0.3%. Economic reports for the week were all positive: ISM services, consumer credit, wholesale inventories, the WLEI, the M1-multiplier, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week we get Retail sales, the CPI/PPI, and the NY/Philly FED.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Stock Market Seesaw...Chop...Handle...Lateral...All The Same...Nauseating... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Jack_Steiman

We can come up with many different ways to explain 2014. All the words in the title apply, and all those words equate to massive frustration for the average trader out there who hasn't been washed out of the game from the decline in froth stocks. Many have gone away, but those still surviving can't make sense of anything and are playing on emotion, which is never a good thing for the wallet. The market had the usual two days today wrapped in a single session with the S&P 500 near a break down and then near a break out.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Stock Market Small Daily Gain, Small Weekly Loss / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The big market news today was the Dow’s achievement of record closing high. My preferred market gauge, the S&P 500, closed with a modest 0.15% gain but was down 0.14% for the week. The index tracked its futures and opened lower, hitting its -0.46% intraday low in the opening minutes. It struggled into weak positive territory during the lunch hour, oscillated around yesterday’s close to finish with at its intraday high.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 10, 2014

Watch for Stock Market Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX reversed back down beneath Short-term resistance at 1876.23. The balance of all the supports are just beneath this morning’s low at 1867.02. The Ending Diagonal Trendline is at 1865.00. Either the supports or the trendline may be used as the “sell signal.” Take your pick.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 09, 2014

Major Stock Market Selloff Looms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

A major selloff is brewing in the lofty US stock markets, which have been grinding sideways for a couple months now.  Momentum has faded despite selective positive earnings-season news and Janet Yellen’s jawboning.  Stocks remain very overvalued, way too expensive for prudent investors to buy.  And it’s been far too long since their last necessary and healthy correction to rebalance sentiment, so one is seriously overdue.

Last year’s extraordinary stock-market levitation has run out of steam.  In the 15.7 months leading into early March 2014, the flagship S&P 500 stock index blasted 38.8% higher!  Capital indiscriminately flooded into stocks regardless of fundamentals or valuations because the Federal Reserve was doing its darnedest to convince traders that it was effectively backstopping the stock markets.  This bred extreme complacency.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 09, 2014

The Worst Risk/Reward Trade on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: EconMatters

The Rigging

So a bunch of folks in Hedge Fund Land have this idea that they can force a bit of a squeeze in the bond markets, and all the sudden the boring old bond market has been on the media roadshow by firms trying to talk their book, and get others to follow suit, and go long the bond market.

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