Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, June 04, 2015

Stock Major Market Stress / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Marty_Chenard

This is the updated P&F Chart of the Institutional "core holdings" that we posted last week.

Note how it has stayed within its rising wedge pattern ... that is a short term plus for now and until there is a downside breakout. (Historically, rising wedges break to the downside.)

Wednesday, June 03, 2015

SPX Making a Double Zigzag / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has completed a double zigzag. This does not fit a Wave (c) ending, but tells us there is a high likelihood for yet another zigzag to complete an Ending Diagonal formation. The target appears to be 2126.22, which will make it an Expanded Flat Wave [ii]. It may also delay the decline until Monday.

Wednesday, June 03, 2015

How To Spot A Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We’ve been entertaining ourselves to no end the past couple days with a ‘vast array’ of articles that purport to provide us with ‘expert’ opinion on the question of whether we are witnessing a bubble or not. Got the views of Goldman’s David Kostin, Robert Shiller, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Howard Marks.

But although these things can be quite amusing because while they’re at it, of course, the ‘experts’ say the darndest things (check Bloomberg ‘Intelligence’s Carl Riccadonna: “You had equity markets benefit from QE, but eventually QE also jump-started the broader recovery.. Ultimately everyone’s benefiting.”), we can’t get rid of this one other nagging question: who needs an expert to tell them that today’s markets are riddled with bubbles, given that they are the size of obese gigantosauruses about to pump out quadruplets?

Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Stock Market At Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The news this morning centers around the Ten Year Note Yield, which appears to have exceeded its prior high. The best fit would be a Wave (v) of Minute Wave [c] of Minor Wave B. This would allow a strong Wave C decline to finish off the decline in yields for good.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

You Don’t Know Where the Stock Market is Heading! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

I’ve been of two minds recently regarding the current Cycle picture in equities. So this week I focused more attention on finding secondary evidence to support a more definitive position ondirection. As I suspected it might, my research provided an almost endless array of contradictory evidence and facts.

The internet and social media are a mixed blessing to researchers – they can lead to a huge number of hypotheses and points of view, but the quality of information is generally pretty low. At its best, however, the internet can lead to ideas and links to compelling analysis and primary sources. The point is that there exists online a mass of data points, ideas, opinions, analyses and thesis that can occasionally help to bring real clarity of thought, but more often, the information serves only to confuse, and even obfuscate.   From a trader’s perspective, the information is generally unable to answer the questions that are of greatest import.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

For Stocks, Things Are Always Getting Better! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

On Monday evening, May 18, 2015, ECB board member Benoit Coeure gathered together a group of bankers and hedge fund managers. That evening, Mr. Coeure gave them the ECB’s game plan for accelerating bond purchases in the euro-zone. Of course, this was a closed meeting and the general public, the slaves, were not privy to this information that would surely move equity and monetary indexes. This group was given ample time on Tuesday morning to set their positions accordingly. Then, around noon, the public was informed of the new ECB intention. This is known as ‘insider trading’ and it is a felony unless of course the person or institution using the insider information is a banker or bank or hedge fund manager. So, we can all conclude that equity prices are gamed by the same people who rig them. Average investors simply need to understand the criminality.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Lindsay Forecast for the End of the Stocks Bull Market – Part3 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Ed_Carlson

Lindsay’s Long Cycle serves as the basis for forecasting bull and bear markets. It lasts for approximately 20 years and its important highs and lows are labeled points A through M.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Stock Market Nice Recovery from Morning Declines / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices started the day off with a very sharp decline, breaking two levels of support, but within an hour had stabilized, and then reversed sharply, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 4490 to over 4535, a 45-point rally in a 3-wave run. They consolidated midafternoon as the S&P 500 made a nominal new high, but the NDX could not confirm it, and rolled over in the last hour to pare back the gains. Nevertheless, it was still a positive session, but narrowly so.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

The Stock Market Different Book Theory..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

The market has no trend you can count on. It's been that way for a drop over six months now. When a market is in a trend you can count on, technical analysis flows. Charts flow in a rhythm. When there is no trend there's no flow meaning you can look at a chart and say you think it should do one thing, but you can't count on it, because the lack of trend is like opening a new book each and every day. A non-trending market equals a market of frustration and a lack of consistent action, thus you need to keep your expectations down big time. Not over play because so many set-ups simply won't work. They may look good, but you can't count on getting out of it what you see on a given day. A different book is what causes the biggest losses as many get caught in the moment, with what seems to be rather than losing that expectation.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Stock Market 2007 All Over Again? Mega-Merger Edition / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: John_Rubino

Intel is buying chip maker Altera. Charter is buying Time Warner Cable. All the big drug makers are buying all the mediums-sized ones.

Great news, right? If these huge companies with their top-of-the-line analytical tools and deep insight into their markets think paying way up to build empires is wise, then the stock market, far from being overvalued, must be cheap.

Monday, June 01, 2015

Stock Market All Eyes on The Prize / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: WavePatternTraders

DOW

In my last article I was looking for new highs on the DOW, well we finally got that now, so with the DOW finally making a new high it's at least potentially completed the ending diagonal idea I have been working from the Oct 2014 lows. The only issue I see is the decline from the last peak is a messy move and not that impulsive, so see a retest of the all time highs would not surprise me.

Monday, June 01, 2015

Stock Market On the Brink? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - The bull market is still intact.

Intermediate trend - Are long-term cycles sketching an important top?

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Stock Market Wild Swings Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last time I wrote, the market looked toppy and I was anticipating a 2.5 week low Tuesday (which used to be the dominant 5 week lo). We rallied Wednesday after the expected selling then sold off the rest of the week. I had said that I expected a June 1 top, but after careful study realized that the top would be June 3 instead.

The Mercury Retrograde mid-point low is due 12 calendar days after the initial retrograde point May 18-19, which points to May 30/31 for the low. That means the low will be on June 1 because May 30/31 falls on a weekend. There is also an adjusted Gann 16 TD low due Monday too. I expect initial buying (9/10 pts) on a possible gap up followed by selling down to about SPX 2085/86.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Stock Market Corruption Becomes Business as Usual / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: Week after week, the news is filled with reports of law-breaking by institutions and individuals that hold positions of trust in society. Last week, FIFA, the body that rules the multi-billion dollar business of soccer, was hit by indictments of many of its senior officials who were charged with running a multi-year corruption scheme.

The week ended with former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dennis Hastert – who for 8 years was the second in line to the presidency – being indicted for violating banking laws in connection with a scheme to pay hush money to a man with whom he had an illicit sexual relationship thirty years ago.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Stock Market Choppy Uptrend May Have Topped / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

Another choppy week, but biased to the downside. The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2126. After a gap down opening on Tuesday the market dropped to SPX 2099. It rallied right back on Wednesday to close the gap, hitting SPX 2126. Then it worked its way lower for the rest of the week to close at SPX 2107. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.05%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%, and the DJ World index lost 1.4%. On the economic front it was another mixed week. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, and the FHFA housing index. On the downtick: durable goods orders, Q1 GDP, the Chicago PMI, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims increased. Next week’s highlights are Payrolls, the FED’s Beige book, ISM and the PCE.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Bad GDP... Bad Chicago PMI... Excuses Running Out... Stock Market Yawns... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

There are two different worlds to write about each and every day with regards to the market. There's the real world and Disneyland. In this particular case the real world is the GDP that was reported in the red this morning. The number was anticipated to be negative, so no big shock when that became a reality. The market futures dropped a bit, but really nothing from nothing. The market anticipated a bad number due to the excuse of bad weather across the country during Q1. I think that's a terrible excuse but why not, let the market use it as an excuse simply because it doesn't want to fall very much. Now we fast forward to the present. We wait on the Chicago PMI to see if business is indeed picking up. The number was well below expectations showing recession during April. No more weather excuses Mr. Market. Here's where Disneyland comes in. Who cares! The market fell a bit for a while, but decided excuses were still the way to approach what's happening. Disneyland allowed the markets to recover off the lows. No big fall that would cause a little bit of technical damage.

Friday, May 29, 2015

Investing’s Great Struggle / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The great endeavor of investing can be distilled down into four simple words, buy low sell high.  They are so basic, so resoundingly clear, that even a child can understand this principle.  Yet still the great majority of investors never achieve significant success.  Even while full-well knowing the core idea of investing, they end up buying high and selling low.  That treacherous struggle of investing must be overcome.

It’s funny, as life is full of simple ideas that are incredibly challenging to put into practice.  Investing is certainly not unique in this regard.  Americans’ expanding waistlines are a great example.  The only way to lean up is some combination of eating less and exercising more.  We all know this basic truth, we all know what we ought to be doing on both fronts, yet it’s still really hard to execute.  Emotions are the reason.

Friday, May 29, 2015

The Pressure Just Shifted from Greece to the US and EU / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

With the 3rd US Q1 GDP print coming in at -0.7% (-3% if not for inventories), perhaps the media spotlights – and lively imagination – can move away from Greece for a few weeks. The US has enough problems of its own, it would seem. For one thing, its Q1 GDP is now worse than Greece’s. Of course its debt is also much higher, just not to the IMF and ECB. But let’s leave that one be for the moment. Though a bit of perspective works miracles at times.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Hundreds of Billions of Dollars Are About to Flow Into Chinese Stocks / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: DailyWealth

Steve Sjuggerud writes: China will ultimately make up 50% of one of the world's major emerging-markets indexes...

"Who cares," you might think, at first...

YOU ought to care...

You see, hundreds of billions of dollars will flow into Chinese stocks in the next two or three years...

Thursday, May 28, 2015

World War D—Deflation - Secular Bear Markets Analysis / Stock-Markets / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Everywhere I go I’m asked, “Will there be inflation or deflation? Are we in a bull or bear market? Is the bond bull market over and will interest rates rise?”

The flippant answer to all those questions is “Yes.” And that can be the correct answer as well, but it depends on what your time frame is and what tools you use to measure the markets and inflation. One of the newer members of the Mauldin Economics team is Jawad Mian, who writes a powerful global macro letter from his base in Dubai. He has been making the case for the “end of the deflation trade” (or more properly the return of a reflationary period) and the knock-on effects that would cause. Longtime readers know that I am in the secular deflation camp and ask me why there’s such a seeming difference my views and Jawad’s.