Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Stock Market Intermediate Downtrend Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - In 1932 and 1974, the 40-yr cycle was responsible for protracted market weakness. The current phase is due this year but where is the weakness? Has man (Federal Reserve) finally achieved dominance over universal rhythms or has it simply delayed the inevitable?
Intermediate trend - We are looking for the move from 1905 to end, after which a much more serious correction should start. (It has probably started!)
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Sunday, October 12, 2014
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has had an nightmare roller coaster ride during the past 2 weeks that this week saw one of the best days of the year for the Dow (Wednesday +275) immediately followed by the worst day of the year (-335) the effect of which is to literally grind the strength out of the stocks bull market rally of 2014 with stomach churning moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over! Which has been regurgitated at length by the mainstream media and BlogosFear backed by supporting reasons coalescing around expectations that the U.S. Fed is to bring QE to an end this month and signal that interest rate hikes are just around the corner, all of this despite the FACT that stocks actually do quite nicely during the early years of a RATE hiking cycles! In fact its rate CUTS that stocks bulls need to worry about for they signal WEAKNESS ahead. Then there’s China weakness, Europe recession, ISIS and not forgetting EBOLA! So plenty of doom for the bears to play pick and mix with for reasons why End Time is here!
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Is a Recession Imminent? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Christopher_Quigley
The stock market is at a facinating juncture at the moment. Currently there is a monumental battle going on between the bulls and the bears, as they both try to ascertain whether the American economy is going to go into a recession. This fear has been brought about by the official ending of the Bernanke policy of financial repression i.e. artifically induced low interest rates caused by the introduction of Quantitative Easing. To guage whether a recession is on the cards let us look at two of my favourite recession indicators: the Chauvet/Piger Recession Indicator and the NYSE Advance-Decline Line.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Stock Market Primary IV Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another wild and volatile week. The week started off calm enough, for this market, with a continuation rally gap up on Monday as the SPX hit 1978 in the first few minutes. Then the market declined to a slightly lower low for the downtrend at SPX 1925 by Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, however, the market rocketed to SPX 1970 just before the close. Then after a quiet opening on Thursday the market gave it all back and made new downtrend lows on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.9%, the NDX/NAZ lost 4.2%, and the DJ World index lost 2.8%. Economic reports for the week were light, but decidedly negative. On the downtick: consumer credit, export/import prices, the WLEI and investor sentiment. On the uptick: wholesale inventories. Next week we get the FED’s Beige book, retail sales, industrial production, reports on housing, and it’s options expiration Friday.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Can the Fed Come To the Rescue Again If Needed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
My concerns about high market valuations, excessive investor euphoria, the Fed eliminating its QE stimulus, growing economic woes in euro-land and so forth, became more serious when my firm’s technical indicators triggered a sell signal on July 31.
As readers know, we had been cautious, expecting a 15% to 20% correction at some point, to a low in the October/ November time-frame. With the July 31 sell signal on the technical indicators, we put 20% of our portfolio in initial downside positions in inverse etf’s.
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Saturday, October 11, 2014
Stock Market Gives It Up..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
In a big way. This was inevitable. The market couldn't stay up as it was forever based on the degree of froth it was dealing with on a daily basis for many, many months. Actually since late February. Froth can take a market higher than anyone thinks possible, but it is amazing how fast the carnage can come. How fast things actually fall. Months of upside can be wiped out in days or weeks. The grind to the upside seemingly never happened when you look at how fast those grinding gains are wiped out. This is how corrections and bear markets work. They are very intense. They create tremendous emotion. Fear ramps very quickly.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Looking for a Minor Pivot Low Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is still lower in the Premarket. I am referring to the daily SPX chart to show the next levels of support. They are the mid-Cycle support at 1911.38 and the 200-day Moving Average at 1904.86.
The original reason for calling for a bottom today is that the Trading Cycle (~60-64 days) is due. However, the SPX is in a Panic Cycle (43 days), so today’s low will be a lesser Pivot, not a major low.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Global Stock Market Shock as "Captured" System Starts to Crack / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: GoldCore
This week has seen some market volatility (see VIX Chart) reminiscent of the functioning market from days of old. The markets are spooked, bad news is overtaking good news and bearish views are becoming vogue. We are seeing a titanic battle taking place between the various bull and bear camps and they are starting to unleash some serious firepower.
The sleepy volumes of late have ticked up appreciably, and small investors are shifting in their seats nervously. The secret that no one really wants to admit (especially while they are making money) is that the recent stock market rally is a gargantous fraud. It has very shaky foundations indeed, propped up on pillars of monetary jelly. At its core is a massive money creation machine which is utterly unaccountable and unelected and a very select credit distribution system.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
The Stock Market Cycle’s Slippery Slope / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Harry_Dent
Will this bubble burst anytime soon? Will we have inflation or deflation? There are lots of questions being asked.
The inability for economists and financial analysts to understand the most basic principle of cycles is just beyond comprehension… especially since we’ve been in this bubble era since 1995. How could so many be arguing that we’re not in a bubble when we have seen one bubble after the next rise and then burst as they always do?
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Reset Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Recent evidence points increasingly towards global economic contraction. Parts of the Eurozone are in great difficulty, and only last weekend S&P the rating agency warned that Greece will default on its debts “at some point in the next fifteen months”. Japan is collapsing under the wealth-destruction of Abenomics. China is juggling with a debt bubble that threatens to implode. The US tells us through government statistics that their outlook is promising, but the reality is very different with one-third of employable adults not working; furthermore the GDP deflator is significantly greater than officially admitted. And the UK is financially over-geared and over-dependent on a failing Eurozone.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Forget What Stock Market Analysts Say, Both of These Omens Mean Big Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Sid Riggs writes: It's been 14 trading sessions since the financial media was abuzz with the fact that the Russell 2000 Index experienced a Death Cross. That is to say, its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) trended below its 200-day SMA. The coverage was all about why the Death Cross spelled impending doom for small-cap stocks and, by extension, the entire stock market.
In fact, in all of the Death Cross commentary I saw on television and read on the Internet there was no mention of historical performance after a Death Cross. None! Just a lot of hyperbole about why we should be concerned.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Roller Coaster Ride as Worst Day Follows Best Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market just took another lurch to the downside as one of the best days of the year for the Dow (+275) was followed by the worst day of the year (-335) which represents over a fortnight of wild gyrations as the stocks bull market after its mid September high appears to have hit a brick wall that is literally grinding the strength out of market with panic inducing moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over!
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Fear Driving the Markets Go Crazy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: writes: It’s no surprise to you that here at Wall Street Insights & Indictments I like indicting the crooks and con artists that slither around Wall Street.
But as much as I like the indictments part, Wall Street insights are increasingly important.
It’s fun to ferret out rodents on the Street, but making money there is even more fun.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Apple Pie, Economic Growth & Fatal Stock Market Flaws / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Dan_Amerman
What is it that will actually determine: 1) how our retirement investments will perform, 2) at what age we will be able to retire, and 3) what our standard of living in retirement will be?
For the usual answers, we've been taught to turn to the assumptions of conventional financial planning. But there's a problem with doing so, which is that the path that the economy and investments have actually taken over the last decade and more doesn't seem to have been anticipated in the usual assumptions.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Wars, Debt, Inflation - When Will They Ever Learn? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: DeviantInvestor
In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?”
The short version is:
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls have picked them.
Where have all the young girls gone?
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Yesterday's Fed News Proved We Need a Stock Market Correction More Than Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: I have long said that the Fed has never met a printing press it didn't like nor a dove that it didn't want to set free in the name of higher stock prices. And, yesterday, yet again, Yellen proved it.
Within minutes of releasing its latest set of notes hinting that the Fed will keep rates near zero, the S&P 500 took off on a 34-point gain that is the biggest so far this year. Moving first 45 points from its low of 1,925 to its peak of 1,970 in less than five hours (it later settled slightly lower), the index shrugged off the prior day's losses amidst global growth concerns and weaker European economic data.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Financial Markets are Convincingly Irrational / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Axel_Merk
To make sense of the markets, it may be ever more important to dissect what we may call convincingly irrational behavior by policy makers. To make sense of stocks, bonds and currencies, you might need to dissect some of the madness that's unfolding in front of our eyes. We assume no responsibility if you turn mad yourself in reading this analysis.
Thursday, October 09, 2014
Stock Market Reversal.....Fed Loves A Bull..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
What a day. We were down over 4% from the top on the S&P 500 just when those Fed minutes were ready to come out this afternoon. The market was already enjoying a strong bounce up when Fed Yellen came out and gave the market what it wanted. Low rates forever, it seems. Not hard to figure out since she hated what she saw around the world with regards to weakening economies. Global weakness along with weakening housing prices have her running scared, and when she's scared the market is very happy, because she makes statements she knows the market will just love. She turned more dovish again, and the market knows this means there's really not many other places to go. Folks bullied into a bull market continues, for now, although risk is still tremendous. Even though the market reversed hard today, it doesn't mean we're out of the woods by any means. We can back test the lost 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages and simply fall again, but I have to say that some of today's reversals were just stunning.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Rally Leaves the Stock Market Breadthless / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Feds were playing with their jack-in-the-box again with a 70% retracement of sub-Minute Wave i. They had a little help from BoJ’s Kuroda with a spike up in USD/JPY to 108.74 just before 2:00. Since 2:00, it has declined back down to as low as 108.05.
It is clear that they are attempting to get liquidity by stopping the shorts out of their positions. But it’s not a change of trend. Resistance at the lower trendline of the larger Orthodox Broadening Top appears to be the stopper.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Fed Smacks U.S. Dollar; Europe and Japan Lose Hope / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: John_Rubino
Read full article... Read full article...FOMC's fear of a strong dollar drives greenback lower
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar turned lower against rivals Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC released minutes from its September meeting, revealing that members raised concerns that a one-two punch of a strong dollar and stagnant growth abroad could impede U.S. growth.The closely followed central bank minutes also showed that several Fed officials wanted to remove language indicating that short-term interest rates would likely remain low "for a considerable time," but held off in part because of concern that the market would misinterpret it as a policy shift.