Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market seasonal trend is usually for a weak October followed by strong November and December, which this year is being disrupted by the election. So where the election cycle is concerned the first few months of a new presidency tends to be subdued, following which the bull market settles in and continues it's business as usual. So we could be heading for a subdued 5 to 6 months.
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Tuesday, November 24, 2020
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, let’s start with the “shallow people.” And, within the context of markets, I am specifically referring to those with shallow and superficial perspectives about markets.
You see, the typical manner in which many view markets is that they see a market move, look to the news, and assume that the news of the day “caused” the market move that we see.
The reason that this is superficial is because we often see the market move in the exact opposite way one would have expected based upon the substance of the news event, leaving many scratching their heads. And, if you are honest with yourself, you know this has likely happened to you many times.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My commonsense interpretation of EWT resolves in a clear cut 5 wave advance into the Mid September peak with subsequent price action resolving in an ABC corrective decline.
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Monday, November 23, 2020
Confidence Erodes in U.S. Institutions... Is the Dollar Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Confidence in American politics is now rarer than gold.
The U.S. election system, once sacrosanct, is losing the trust of half the country. Which half will depend on the outcome of Donald Trump’s efforts in the courts to demonstrate widespread fraud.
The political left is certain Joe Biden is the rightful winner. They dismiss Trump's legal team as hacks and are unconcerned with the sworn affidavits and other evidence of fraud brought forth in legal cases.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Stock Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How does 2020 compare to the last 2 presidential elections in terms of stock market trend.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: New intermediate uptrend underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, November 21, 2020
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My researchers and I want to highlight a Weekly chart pattern that is warning of a potential Top/Reversal in the SPY & SPX. Although the current trend is Bullish and the markets are looking forward to the new year, new policies, and probably new stimulus which normally prompts some type of upward price rally in the markets, we see an “Island Setup” that has continued to form after all the positive COVID-19 vaccine news.
An Island Setup in price is when price moves or Gaps away from a typical price range or boundaries, then stalls. This type of setup is similar in structure to a Doji Star setup in an “Evening Star” formation. Similarly, the Doji Star pattern also warns of a possible trend reversal. Our researchers believe any continued failure to rally at this stage points to a very real downside price reversal setting up in the SPY/SPX. Let’s take a look at some Weekly charts.
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Friday, November 20, 2020
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is having its first significant correction since the start of it's bull run following the corona crash into March 2020. Failure to hold support at 26,500 is eyeing a trend to next support at 25,000. Though MACD is oversold so implies limited downside. Of course price action is heavily influenced by election uncertainty.
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Friday, November 20, 2020
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"This is the highest ratio in the 20-year history of the data."
One of the historic ways that stock market investors exhibit conviction about the direction of prices is to use leverage or participate in the market with borrowed money. Yet another way of putting it is to "trade on margin."
Going all the way back to 1929, that was the downfall of many who viewed the market as a quick way to get rich.
Here's an Oct. 29, 1929 Boston Daily Globe headline:
Margin Account Dumping Brings Stock Crash ...
Yet, you can find examples in more recent history too
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The starting point for my stock market analysis is to remind all of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! )
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Short-term Analysis
The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Sometimes the markets telegraph a key level or future target level in pre-market or post-market trading. Other times these telegraphed price targets happen during regular trading hours. Recently, the Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Contracts (YM) generated two unique high price levels near $30,000 over the span of about 6 trading days.
My research team and I believe this “telegraphed high price target level” is a warning of major resistance for traders. These types of broad market patterns are not very common on charts. They happen sometimes, but very rarely like this example on the YM chart below. This Double Top (Tweezers) pattern may be warning that the $30,000 level on the YM could become a major market peak/turning point. Additionally, the post election rally reached this $30,000 level on the day Pfizer announced the vaccine data, then sold off quite consistently throughout the regular trading session.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Are You Getting Ready For The Next Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published on Seeking Alpha pre-open on Monday November 16: I have read one article after another calling this market delusional, wrong, crazy, impossible, dangerous, a bubble, etc. And what is common amongst all these articles is that none of the authors expected the market to rise this high. Moreover, they all point to Covid as the primary reason for their bearishness. So, when they don’t understand what is going on, they resort to name calling.
But, calling the market names will not help your investment accounts. Moreover, has basing your market perspective on Covid helped your investment account? Rather, it behooves you to seek out a better way to understand the market.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Stock Market Uptrend in Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Access to Critical Market Reports / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Like millions of people, you may have tried your hand at intraday trading this year.
Sure, today’s market platforms make executing your trades easy. But winning consistently is still hard. Especially when the waves are as big as they are right now.
This will help. For 3 days only on November 10-12, our friends at elliottwave.com are hosting a new, trader-focused event, "Critical Opportunities FreePass.".
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Thursday, November 12, 2020
Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Early this morning, the US stock market indexes/futures rallied on news that Pfizer’s new COVID-19 vaccine late-stage trials appear to show 90% effective rates. Overall, this is very good news for the US and global market economic recovery efforts. It means we may be able to get back to somewhat normal very quickly (as soon as the Fast-Track FDA approval process is complete). The YM (Dow Jones E-Mini Futures) reached a high of 30,000 very early today – which is a huge psychological level for traders.
After the US elections last week and the continued news of the outcome – the global financial markets were really wanting some type of good news instead of more chaos and unknowns. The Pfizer news hit the pre-market trading like a booster rocket. Before the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones futures were up over 1500 points – which is simply incredible.
If you’ve followed my research long enough, you’ve heard me use the term “Pop-n-Drop”. A “Pop-n-Drop” is when something big drives a big market gap which quickly falls down later in the trading session(s). This happend because market prices always have a way of reverting back to somewhat normal trading ranges. Let’s take a look at a few different charts/sectors to help illustrate this type of setup.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Stock Market Secular Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The secular upward trend of the world's stock markets never missed a beat due to the ongoing turmoil surrounding the U.S. President election this last month.
The benchmark world index (Dow Jones Global Index) is set to post a new all-time high later this month which continues the pattern of 11-years of higher highs and higher lows (Chart 1).
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far, will be gauged after the September-November correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction may have ended.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2020
What Causes a Financial Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Travis_Bard
Financial bubbles refer to a situation in which an asset sees a rapid increase in price and demand driven by a theoretical interest, then crashes as the rising prices become unsustainable over time. When reaching a specific value, the asset bubble bursts, and its prices reduce to a level that more accurately reflects its intrinsic value. Financial bubbles are typically attributed to a sudden change in investor behaviour, in which hypes, excessive speculation and the strong desire to ‘jump on the bandwagon’ of a certain trending asset play a part. In this article, let’s explore the potential causes of a financial bubble.
For a comprehensive history of financial bubbles, check out this comprehensive timeline by DailyFX.
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Sunday, November 08, 2020
What to Make of an “Irrational” Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020
By: John_Mauldin
Justin Spittler : We’re also smack dab in the middle of earnings season. This is when companies tell the world how their business is doing. They reveal how much their sales grew and if they turned a profit.
Good quarterly results, as I’m sure you know, can cause a stock to race higher. Bad earnings, on the other hand, can send a stock into a tailspin. In fact, it’s quite common for a stock to move 20%, 30%, or even 40% in a day based on earnings.
More importantly, earnings can set the tone for a stock going forward. They can dictate a stock’s trajectory for weeks, months, or even years. But here’s the thing. Not all good earnings ignite powerful rallies. Sometimes, companies crush earnings and barely move or even fall on the news. We’ve been seeing this play out a lot recently.
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