Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress until mid to late-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, September 28, 2020
Is The Stock Market Dow Transportation Index Setting up a Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The Transportation Index, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months.
- Classic Japanese Candlestick top/sell reversal “Three Rivers Evening Star topping pattern” setting up.
- We may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200.
The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months. Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart). Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.
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Sunday, September 27, 2020
Will Next SPX Cycle Be Directional Opposite Of March-September? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Typically exhibiting a 100 to 110 trading day cycle from low to low, the S&P 500's cycle low on March 23 was actually 117 days after the prior cycle bottom in October 2019.
The 117-day cycle that hit its low on March 23 initiated a new cycle that -- owing to massive Federal Reserve liquidity injection -- climbed relentlessly for 114 days into the September 2 all-time high at 3588.11.
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Friday, September 25, 2020
A Look at the Perilous Psychology of Financial Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: EWI
Investors acknowledge a market bubble but optimism prevents them from seeking financial safety
The months before the 2000 and 2007 stock market peaks saw a measurable rise in news stories that used the phrase "financial bubble."
But instead of selling, many investors kept right on buying.
The logic went something like this: "This bubble could burst one day -- but not just yet."
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Thursday, September 24, 2020
Key Time For Stock Markets: Bears Step Up or V-Shaped Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as an inside/range day per expectations given Monday’s temporary bottom context. Essentially, price action formed an intraday double top after the RTH open and then bottomed out by 11AM in order to grind up towards 3300 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the rest of the time. The overall range was 3309.5-3256.50 including overnight globex hours.
The main takeaway remains the same as short-term trend on the daily chart remains bearish and this is still treated as a deadcat bounce until further evidence. Today is an important day for bears to turn things around given the context and where price action is hovering just below some key resistance levels such as 3326/3350. Make or break sort of playbook as we’ll be stalking for a southbound train ride soon unless proven otherwise.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Global Stock Markets Break Hard To The Downside – Watch Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- New reports of widespread financial corruption likely triggered the current sell-off.
- Watch out for market support levels to see if this is a short-term correction or the start of a downtrend.
- Support for the DOW is just above 26,000.
- Support for the SP500 is around 3,100.
US and global markets were already under pressure over the past few weeks related to COVID-19 issues and global economic expectations. The technology sector had driven valuations to levels not seen since the DOT COM bubble near the end of August and many of the US Indexes has reached or breached all-time highs again. My research team and I warned followers to “stay cautious” throughout much of the price rally as our proprietary price modeling systems suggests the rally was isolated and not organic. The US Fed has spewed capital into the markets and speculative traders piled into the “excess phase” of the market to drive price levels higher. Take a moment to review these recent research posts to learn more:
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Beware of These Faulty “Inflation Protected” Investments / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve last week reiterated its commitment to an unprecedented inflation-raising campaign.
Specifically, the Fed aims to push the inflation rate above 2% for an extended period.
The risk for investors is that central bankers succeed in their mission to depreciate the currency more rapidly – perhaps even more rapidly than intended or acknowledged in the official (understated) inflation data.
Inflation is a corrosive force that eats away at the real value of savings and investments.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2020
Still More Room To Stock Market Downside In The Coming Weeks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
With the market dropping two days in a row at the end of this past week, many were scratching their heads as to the reason for the decline. Yet, no clear reason was to be found.
In fact, this past week, the Fed just came out with yet another pronouncement as to how they intend to hold rates at near zero for the next three years.
Did you hear that folks? They intend to hold rates near zero for the next three years, especially as the stock market has recently struck new all-time highs. So, there is absolutely no question in my mind that the Fed is placing itself into a hole from which it will never be able to climb out. But, I will leave that topic for a different article.
In the meantime, for all of you Fed-followers, not only did they state their intentions to keep rates near zero for the next three years, but they even significantly increased their buying this past week to $68 billion in open market operations.
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Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Stock Market Correction Approaching Initial Objective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, September 21, 2020
US Financial Market Forecasts and Elliott Wave Analysis Resources / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Volatility has returned -- and, most likely, it will only heat up from here.
You're probably wondering what's next. So, let our friends at Elliott Wave International help.
In a few days, they're starting a rare event called Unprecedented Year, Unprecedented Opportunities -- FreePass: U.S.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
The Connection Between Stocks and the Economy is not What Most Investors Think / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
You've probably heard the phrase, "leading economic indicators."
In the U.S., they refer to a core set of data points, including the Consumer Price Index, the Producer Price Index, employment, manufacturing activity, housing starts and consumer confidence.
But, interestingly, the most important economic indicator is usually not referred to as such, and it's none other than the stock market itself.
That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy.
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Saturday, September 19, 2020
The United Floor in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Doug_Wakefield
If you have pondered HOW stock markets could act like they were totally ignoring everything that has happened since the first of the year, let me share a few thoughts and pictures with you.
First, this is a picture of the Dow as it closed last Friday. This is the stock index most people refer to as “the market” when discussing stocks climbing or falling.
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Friday, September 18, 2020
The S&P 500 appears ready to correct, and that is a good thing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The S&P 500 has jumped over 50 percent since the March low. All within six months. This is the fastest rebound within half a year that the index has made since the start of the bull market in 2009. Is it any surprise that the benchmark index now appears vulnerable to a pull back?
Since the start of the 11-year bull advance, the average pull back has equaled about 17.0 percent. When the last correction in March 2020 is added to the list, the percent moves up to 19.7 percent (Chart 1).
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Friday, September 18, 2020
Overvalued Stocks Head into the Bunker / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them.However, what it cannot do, nor can anyone else, is anticipate every short-term selloff in stocks. While the IDEC strategy protects and profits from bear markets, it also tends to soften the blow from short-term selloffs and prevents us from panicking at the bottom of every brief correction. This was the case in the latest plunge that started on September 3rd and lasted just three brutal days.
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Thursday, September 17, 2020
Fasten Your Seatbelts Stock Market Make Or Break – Big Trends Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Although our modeling systems have recently switched into Bullish Trending mode, we are still very cautious of a Bull Trap pattern.
- Bearish technical divergences between price and RSI with an election 50+ days away indicates market weakness and money rotating out of FAANG stocks. FAANGs are at make or break levels – it’s time to act not react.
- 11% to 22% price rotation ranges are in play – are you ready?
My research team recently highlighted the current market trend setup over the past few weeks as cautiously bullish while watching for a potential Bull-Trap setup. We have been warning our followers of the risks associated with a Presidential election year event as well as the continued disconnect between the market rally and the real-world economy. These next few days and weeks will make or break the markets so we encourage you to pay attention to this article.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Stock Market Approaching Correction Objective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: Potential intermediate correction in progress.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here’s when a surge in IPOs tends to occur
Let's pretend for a second we're trying to explain to an alien how the weather works on planet Earth.
When the sky turns dark and cloudy, we might tell him, this indicates rain -- perhaps even thunderstorms. However, cloudy skies do not necessarily signal when a downpour will start or how long it will last if it does start. After all, the sun could break through before an umbrella is needed. All that said, when the sky turns ominous, it's a good idea to have your umbrella handy -- just in case.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Over the past 28 years, the SPY has gained an average of 3.45% in 15 of those years; it has fallen by 6.42% in the other 13 years.
- The critical support level for SPY is 332.85. If the SPY finds support at this level then you can expect continued, moderate price increases.
- Prepare for a moderate increase in volatility for the rest of September – watch the VIX.
My research team and I have been pouring over the charts in an effort to attempt to identify any support or weakness related to the increase in volatility over the past 7+ trading days. The VIX is currently at 29.71 after reaching a high of 38.28. We believe the increased price volatility is here to stay – at least through the end of 2020. This means skilled technical traders should prepare for some potentially large and aggressive price swings over the next few weeks and months.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The bulls responded with an upswing, which I saw as probable to happen. Is the sharp correction over now? Thus far, my answer remains the same as yesterday – in terms of prices, the worst is likely behind us, in terms of time, we have a way to go still.
So, what about the key juncture stocks are at? Let's get and feel the pulse via a few selected charts.
As for narratives, the tensions around China are back in the spotlight. Otherwise, my yesterday's comments still apply:
(…) Unless the Democrats raise up a notch their existing calls for Biden not to concede defeat under any circumstances, unless rioting ramps up, unless the Fed takes away the punch bowl, and finally unless Americans happily march into another lockdown that who knows when it would really end and on what terms (Cuomo's conditions serve as a great, sorry, terrible example), the stock bull run can go on in September before meeting the October headwinds.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Stephen_McBride
Trump or Biden: who will be our next president? That’s the most pressing question in America right now. And in less than nine weeks, we’ll get our answer.
As I type, Biden leads in most polls. But betting markets say it’s a coin flip. Polls tend to be wrong, and betting markets are usually right.
But I’m not writing you today to predict who’ll come out on top. Or guess at what might change depending on who wins. (I’ll leave that to the talking heads on TV.)
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