Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Options Traders Keep "Opting" for Even Higher Stock Market Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
And this continued bullish behavior speaks volumes about the trend
What a rally!
After a swift and scary ride downward, the DJIA has climbed from a low of 18,213 on March 23 to near-record high territory.
Even so, many investors are still bullish, and they're backing up their conviction with a great enthusiasm for call options, which are bets on higher prices. (By contrast, as you probably know, put options are placed when market participants expect lower prices.)
This enthusiasm for call options has been on display for at least a couple of months now.
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Monday, September 07, 2020
Stock Market SPX to Gold/Silver Ratios Explored – What To Expect Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- A Phase II rally in metals is just getting ready to start.
- Phase II rallies are very explosive and tend to enter Parabolic trends.
- Gold could rally 250% to 350% over the next several years.
- Silver could rally 550% to 750% over the next several years.
My research team and I started exploring the relationship between the Gold-to-Silver ratio and the S&P 500 to find trends in Metals and the US Stock Markets. We called the collapse in the Gold-to-Silver ratio accurately back in March 2020, and we believe the current setup in the S&P to the Gold-to-Silver ratio shows the move in Precious Metals is far from over.
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Sunday, September 06, 2020
Stock Market Divergent Top - Are Fangs Going To Breakdown Soon? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- FANG Index may begin to peak/top as RSI Divergence pattern sets up.
- Dow Theory trend divergence confirmation suggests the end of the “Excess Rally” is near.
- The VIX moving higher suggests greater concerns of increased volatility.
- Dow Jones Utility Index moving lower on increased volume may be the key in a multiple-pattern set up that will confirm larger market trends.
Friday, September 04, 2020
Stock Market September Consolidation Vs Straight Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
The month of August wrapped up around the monthly highs as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) price action gained about +7% vs July. It was a statistical outlier as it was one of the biggest gains for August in decades. Nonetheless, the August monthly candle demonstrated a powerful immediate continuation off of the past few months’ setup and trend continuation pattern. A few important things on our radar inform us that September likely won’t be as easy or one directional.
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Friday, September 04, 2020
How to Profit When the Smart Money Leaves Their Footprints / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler: Imagine you’re sitting at a bar in Manhattan. As the bartender’s making your drink, you overhear a conversation from the table behind you.
Two well-dressed men are talking. One looks familiar. He’s a hedge fund manager you’ve seen on TV. You don’t recognize the other guy. But, from the sound of it, they work together.
They’re talking excitedly about one stock, and how they bought $1 billion worth of it today. By the end of the week, they plan to buy several billion more.
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
I know many of you view the Fed as quite omnipotent, with the ability to move the market with a simple stroke of a key. In fact, this perspective is so ubiquitous that I know almost none of you will take my presentation seriously, as “common-think” has taken over most investor’s ability to see the facts presented to us by the market. However, please do recognize that my perspective is based in fact and history, rather than the supposition and fallacy upon which most perspectives in the market are based.
Moreover, I have presented many prognostications in the past which have seemed unrealistic at the time, yet almost all of which have been realized within the fullness of time. So, why not offer another? (smile)
The main premise which is universally accepted is that the Fed can simply “print” money and push it into the stock market to cause the market to rally. In this way, the Fed has supposedly supported the market, and has caused this rally we have been seeing for many years.
To this end, I will again quote a comment I received to one of my recent articles, which explains the common perception on this matter quite clearly:
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
S&P 500: Revealing the "Real" Story About the Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Financial headlines do not always tell the full story
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper than the headline to find out what really happened.
You know, like what's suggested by the television title "True Hollywood Story," or the BBC's "Real Story."
Sometimes getting the real scoop simply satisfies one's curiosity and is more entertainment than anything else. But, at other times, digging deeper into a subject can help one draw an important conclusion that may affect one's life -- or investments.
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
This Group of Wealthy Investors Hoard Cash at Unprecedented Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Yes, stocks have been in rally mode.
Even so, a group of multimillionaires appears to be shifting from an optimistic mindset to one of pessimism about the financial future.
Their solution is hard, cold cash.
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Wednesday, September 02, 2020
Stock Market Dow Jones Utilities Breaking Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Dow Theory suggests indices must confirm each other and volume must confirm the trend.
- The new downward trend in the Dow Utilities Index suggests indices are starting to break apart in terms of trending in unison.
- Volume recently has been trailing lower, which suggests the momentum behind these new all-time highs is weakening.
- If the Utilities Index continues to move lower and we see increased volume in the selling trend, we will consider the Dow Theory Trend component “broken” and expect a major peak/top soon after.
We know some of you are Dow Theory enthusiasts and followers. We follow the Transportation Index as a leading indicator for potential major market trends almost exclusively because of what we have learned from Dow Theory. If you are unfamiliar with Dow Theory, we suggest visiting Investopedia’s summary of this technical theory for a quick refresher. You can also learn more about the primary indicator in Dow Theory here. The two most important aspects of Dow Theory that we are researching today are two components:
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Wednesday, September 02, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Trend Lines in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 31, 2020
Stock Market Expanding Wedge May Prompt Big Price Correction – Big Top Be Set Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The Monthly S&P500 E-Mini Futures chart is revealing an Expanding Wedge pattern that has been setting up since Jan/Feb 2018.
- The VIX has set up a base and begun to move moderately higher over the past 7+ days – above the 20.00 point level and above the GAP created by the initial COVID-19 selloff.
- Our Custom Volatility Index chart warns of a “bull trap” set up, and we may see an 11% to 15% (or more) sell-off in the US and global markets if the Custom Volatility Index collapses below 10 over the next few weeks.
- Are These Technical Setups Warning That A Market Top Is Forming?
I want to bring this large expanding wedge pattern to your attention as my research team and I watch the markets continue to push to new all-time highs. This is a follow on to our research from our Special Alert report warning of Head-and-Shoulder patterns in some of our custom charts. We know it may sound a bit alarming to be the one to bring up a potentially devastating Bearish technical pattern at this time, but as technical traders, we must stay aware of risks even if they may not materialize. Trading is a process where we take measured risks in an attempt to generate profits over time. Risk becomes a very big issue if it is not properly managed – just as trading becomes very difficult if one doesn’t learn to take profits in good trades.
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Friday, August 28, 2020
Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been posting exclusively for the last 2 months on the PM complex as I know that is most of our members main focus. Since the PM complex is now in consolidation mode I would like to take this time to show you the other bull market that has been taking place in the US stock markets. It is important for me personally to be on record as early as possible because it means nothing after the fact. The easiest trade to make is the one you do in hindsight, after the fact, as many like to say, I seen that move coming a mile away, again after it’s already half over.
I got on record on June 22nd of this year when I made a small post on the, Markets Update, that I do at the end of each day.
June 22nd post:
Before we look at today’s charts I would like to give you a short answer on why I’m taking on so many positions in the stock markets. The short answer for now is that I recently had an epiphany moment similar to the one I had on the US dollar back in 2014 when I discovered that massive 11 year base that was a fractal to the one that formed previously that most of you have seen many times.
Currently I’m seeing some patterns setting up in the stock markets that could lead to a very powerful rally the likes of what we’ve never seen before. I realize that many think I’m living in a fantasy land by being bullish on the stock markets which is fine because I don’t want to run with the herd. I want to go where no man has gone before. That sounds like a movie title.
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Thursday, August 27, 2020
High-Flying COVID-19 Stocks Sectors May Be Setting Up For A Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
- KEY HIGHLIGHTS: COVID-19 has hit many retail and commercial sectors hard, but boosts Technology and Automobiles.
- The NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector Index suggests the 100% Measured Move is complete.
- NASDAQ BNCHMK Computer Hardware Index has reached a lofty 150% upside Measured Move expansion.
- US Automobiles Index currently nearing a 135% upside Measured Move.
- Will these trends continue, or are they a temporary “transitional process”?
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Continued Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 24, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 Downswing Staring Us in the Face? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
After flirting with new all-time highs, stocks reversed on the Fed seeing slowing labor market and planning no yield control for now. Volume is slowly returning, prices aren't making material headway, which is lending the stock market a tired look.
Just as I wrote yesterday before being yet again profitably taken out of the earlier long position, it's one thing to be building a base, and lacking the strength to break higher with resounding force.
That's exactly the case with stocks, and the absence of bulls' strong conviction. Each passing day that lacks clues hinting at their return, is leaving the S&P 500 progressively more exposed and vulnerable to broad weakness or even a takedown without much in terms of an advance warning. That's certainly the case with no hints at a new punch bowl on the nearest horizon.
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Monday, August 24, 2020
Record Low Volatility Why Stock Market Investors Need to Fasten Their Seatbelts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"Because financial markets are a fractal, present conditions never maintain"
Elliott Wave International's analysts have long noted that periods of low stock market volatility are almost always followed by periods of high volatility.
Granted, periods of low volatility can stretch for a while, yet a change occurs sooner or later -- and that shift is often dramatic.
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Sunday, August 23, 2020
Stock Market Massive Dual Head-and-Shoulders Setup / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
- Dual Head-and-Shoulders patterns warn of a potentially big downside move and new highs may be a trap for bulls
- Valuation levels suggest the broader US stock market is lagging
- Precious metals continue to warn of risks
- The market “melt-up” may be nearing an end
My research team is issuing a Special Alert Warning after the NASDAQ and SPY reached new all-time highs. Our research team identified a massive Head-and-Shoulders pattern (highlighted in BLUE) that originated in 2014, set up a “head” in 2018, and is now forming a “right shoulder” spanning 2019 and 2020. Additionally, a minor Head-and-Shoulders pattern is setting up on the right side of the chart below (highlighted in MAGENTA) that peaks in early February 2020 – just before the COVID-19 price collapse. Will this dual Head-and-Shoulders pattern prompt a massive downside price move over the next few weeks and months, or will the US stock market continue to rally higher – breaking the resistance level the shorter-term “head” (near $174) and keep going?
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Thursday, August 20, 2020
A Huge Opportunity For Emerging Market Stock Investors In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Avi_Gilburt
Back in early February of 2020, I warned those willing to listen that “Emerging Markets Look Sick,” which was actually the title of my article.
In fact, when I posted this article in early February, I was looking for a bounce off the 42 support region in EEM, with a target back up in the 44/45 region, which was expected to be a short-able bounce. You can see this outlined in the chart I presented within that article.
As you can see, the EEM struck a low just below 42, and bounced back up to a high of 44.84. This set up the big decline of which I was warning, with an ideal target of the 1.00 extension on the chart in the 31 region.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Our Proprietary ADL US Markets Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our friends and followers love it when we publish and Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling chart. These are very special charts because they show us what our proprietary predictive modeling system is suggesting is a likely outcome many weeks or months into the future. We wanted to highlight the YM ADL chart, below, because we published it near the end of 2019 in a research article suggesting a deep price correction was setting up for 2020. Additionally, you should be able to follow the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart to see how and where the ADL predictive modeling system suggested the YM price would target.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Five Post-Covid Trends and Gold Price / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The disruptions caused by the pandemic of Covid-19 forced people, companies, governments, and organizations to challenge their basis assumptions about their ways of life and conduct. Some of them might be trivial such as more frequent and thorough hand-washing, but others are much more important, amongst them putting more emphasis on health that came suddenly under threat and social relationships that were so missing during the quarantine. So, the key question is when the epidemic is fully contained, what will be the “new normal” – and how it will affect the gold market?Read full article... Read full article...