Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Stock Market Back To No Control........ / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

The market getting back up to the breakout area of 1267 on the S&P 500 looked so promising if you're a bull. We headed into the holiday weekend with breakouts that were the talk of the stock market world. The bulls were talking the talk as it seemed Europe was under control for the moment. The reports in the United States, currently, aren't at all bad. The reasons for a breakout seemed real. That is, until today when the bears, not so fast, stopped us cold when we tried to break things down. But now, we're stopping the bears as well. No one in control. Volume is light, thus, both sides need not apply too much pressure to hold the other side off from making the bigger move. Holiday time of year when volume is basically light.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Euro Holds Key For Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Chris_Ciovacco

The best way to monitor the sustainability of the current push higher in stocks (SPY) is to keep an eye on the euro and U.S. dollar. The correlation between stocks and the euro has been strong in recent months. In the current environment, when the euro strengthens, stocks tend to come along for the ride.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Stock Market Volatility Lurks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Fred_Sheehan

The European Union is putting its money where its mouth is. Never taking the slightest blame for euro woes, its New York employees are moving to new offices at 666 Third Avenue. The EU's United Nations delegation will "take about 45,000 square feet .... and pay about $60 a square foot annually for 15 years...." reported Bloomberg on December 23, 2011. Negotiations with its prospective new landlord, Tishman Speyer Properties L.P., are nearing completion. The real estate company should consider an anti-EU hedge at the moment the EU signs up.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Central Bankers vs. Natural Stock Market Cycles in 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: David_Knox_Barker

Government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy have the specific goal of stamping out the business cycle. Governments have been intervening in the economy and financial markets with fiscal policies for thousands of years. Central banking, at least its current form of the last one-hundred years or so, offers more sophisticated and less transparent methods of intervention including interest rates, quantitative easing (QE), reserve requirements, currency swap lines, bank loans, etc. Use of these tools has risen sharply in recent decades, but they have never really worked. It is time to realize that business cycles and their accompanying market cycles are natural forces that are here to stay.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

U.S. Treasury Bonds About To Plunge? Implications For Stocks and Gold Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Willem_Weytjens

Are Bonds about to plunge? And if so (or if not), what are the implications for stocks and precious metals?

Let’s have a look at TLT, which is the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund.

Back in 2008, at the climax of the financial crisis, TLT was very stretched above the 200MA, and the RSI was very oversold on a weekly basis.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Krugman's Missed Call; Europe/China/Japan; Sideways Markets; Profit Margins; Microsoft / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Paul Krugman wrote about China in his New York Times column last Monday.  That’s a topic that you have researched closely.  He said that "China’s story just sounds too much like the crack-ups we’ve already seen elsewhere," referring to the financial crisis in the US and the Japanese lost decade. Do you agree with his assessment?

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Stock Market Rally Time for a Pause / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.

SPX: Intermediate trend - The current action suggests that a wave "C" from 1075 is underway and, after a short consolidation, has resumed its uptrend.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Stock Market Year End Notes, More Broadening Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

While everyone is looking at the Dow in the SPX, virtually no one is paying attention to the NDX. The rally from August 9 to December 5 was very choppy and overlapping, with the best interpretation being a wave two. Since December 5 it has made an impulsive decline to 2950.71 and three wave correction. As of Friday it has stalled at mid-cycle resistance at 2287.57.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Stock Market Inflection Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Toby_Connor

After a rough beginning on monday US stocks surged tuesday, following the ECB’s successful LTRO results, then continued higher for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +3.65% and the NDX/NAZ were +2.25%. Asian markets gained 0.6%, European markets surged 3.5%, and the DJ World index rose 3.0%. Economic reports in the US were mixed, with positives outnumbering negatives 8:7. On the uptick: NAHB, housing starts, building permits, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, new home sales, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: existing home sales, Q3 GDP, leading indicators, FHFA, personal income, the M1-multiplier and the WLEI. Next week, a holiday shortened week, Case-Shiller and the Chicago PMI.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Stock Market Holiday Short Squeeze and Crude Oil Trade Idea / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Typically, the week before Christmas, stocks and commodities drift higher due to the lack of participants.  Light volume favours higher prices, which is why stocks want to rise going into the holiday season.

The big money players, like hedge fund managers, are finished for the year.  They’re sitting on the sidelines enjoying the holiday season while waiting for their year-end bonus checks.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Stock Market Bulls Closing In.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Jack_Steiman

One week ago the market was closing in on breaking down below S&P 500 1225. It failed to hold the breakdown once it occurred as the bears just couldn't find any momentum once the level was taken out. A slow grind lower ensued, with the bulls, eventually, holding the line in the sand. Here we are with the bulls trying to press through massive resistance between 1260/1657. You need a gap up and out to confirm the move, so we'll be looking for that on Tuesday when we open for trading once again. The bears choked big time when they had their chance, especially since they actually broke through key support at 1225. Now, the bulls are on the precipice of breaking through their major headache resistance area. Let's see what they can, or can't, do with it.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Stock Markets in a Pre-Crash Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

-- The VIX appears to be nearing completion of a doubly indicated bullish Descending Wedge pattern on December 27. It will then have completed a Master Cycle low, beginning a new bullish cycle pattern for the VIX. The master cycle low appears to have been delayed, but I wish to assure you that the low will occur within turn window allowed for it. What follows may be a breakout above the wedge as early as the end of next week.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Europe Bond Market To Remain Problematic For Stocks In 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Wall Street tends to segregate “bond-guys” from “stock guys”. The bond side of the market tends to be more conservative; they also perform more detailed research meaning they actually look at the numbers. The stock side of the market is based more on momentum, gut feel, and stories.

Friday, December 23, 2011

The Stock Market and Recession Crazes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Zeal_LLC

Recession is a four-letter word in the financial markets, striking terror into the hearts of everyone.  And if reports since August are to be believed, there is a recession hiding behind every tree.  For a myriad of reasons, economists have argued we are due to plunge into the next one any day now.  But speculators and investors have to understand how recession talk is spawned, sometimes leading to recession crazes.

Friday, December 23, 2011

European Debt Is ‘Obviously Unserviceable’ / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Referencing Kyle Bass’ work in a December 18 video, we noted numerous countries have an unstable combination of debt and revenue relative to the size of their banking system. Another excellent source for debt sustainability analysis comes from Jeffery Gundlach, manager of the 2011 top-performing U.S. bond fund. Mr. Gundlach was recently interviewed by the Financial Times. He does not subscribe to the theory European leaders can “put a Band Aid on a system which didn’t break a week ago, or a month ago, or a year ago. It’s been in the process for years.” His analysis came to the same conclusion as Mr. Bass’; default on unpayable obligations will occur. He also believes growing the way out of the problem is not an option since the debt is “obviously unserviceable”.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Markets the Friday Before Christmas, Even NYMEX Crooks Are Going Home Early / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: PhilStockWorld

Really guys! 

Don’t we all have something better to do than watch the markets today?

I’m embarrassed for all of us.  Even the crooks at the NYMEX are going home at 1:30 this afternoon, sacrificing an entire hour of losing money to us to be with their strippers.  That’s right we OWNED those people yesterday, hitting play after play after play on the oil Futures, all based on our very simple premise that – If the crooks at the NYMEX want to pretend they want to buy a barrel of oil for $100 – we are very happy to promise to sell it to them!  

Friday, December 23, 2011

Market Forecasts 2012, The Dow's Annus Horribilis and Gold's... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Hubert_Moolman

I must admit that I do not prescribe to the 2012 end of the world or end of an era phenomenon; however, my recent analysis suggests that 2012 could indeed be a very significant year.

I have been following a fractal (pattern) on the Dow chart for the last couple of years. I have written about it before, in a previous article. Basically, the Dow chart is forming a similar pattern to that which was formed in the late 60s to early 70s.

Friday, December 23, 2011

ECB Liquidity Loans Still Not Enough to Stop Stock Market Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: UnpuncturedCycle

Giuseppe L. Borrelli writes: Yesterday we learned that the European Central Bank offered to loan 523 banks a total of 489 billion euros ($641 billion) in funding. The idea is part of a drive to increase liquidity and curtail the threat of sovereign default by some euro-zone members. Unfortunately the short-term liquidity needs for European banks exceed one trillion euros. What's more the ECB is loaning out money to EU banks for three years thereby increasing the overall debt of these troubled banks while allowing them to postpone the problem of how to pay down that debt. In return the ECB is receiving bad sovereign debt as security at face value and it is leaving itself with little cash on hand.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Stock Market Failure at Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The trendline under wave [c] of ii appears to have been broken.  The chances are that any indication of selling may beget even more selling, as the tacticians are all watching the 200-day moving average. 

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Essential Investor Knowledge For Maximizing Real Gains Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Equities & The U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011

By: DeepCaster_LLC

“Since its inception in 1913, The Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply.

And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times. This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation. In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation. But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms.”