Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 03, 2020
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
The world is changing because the US FED is considering capping the US 10 yr interest rate under the US inflation rate, or negative real interest rates forever. Further massive destruction of the US dollar purchasing power. Previous Post: Formula for when the great stock market rally ends In the previous post this blog said:
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong. This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you. Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
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Monday, February 03, 2020
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Limited correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, February 01, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The first part of my overall stock market outlook for 2020 was posted at the start of January, now here is the full analysis that concludes in an overall forecast for the Dow into the end of 2020, a gauge against which to measure relative strength or weakness as the stock market trends through the year.
This analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Saturday, February 01, 2020
Stock Market Combination Topping Pattern Is Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has highlighted a number of technical and other factors that point to a very real potential of a major market top setting up across the global markets. We’ve highlighted a number of research articles over the past 30 to 45 days that clearly illustrate our interpretation of the US and global markets.
Our research team believes the Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan china will cripple economic expansion and consumer economic activity in China and much of SE Asia over the next few weeks and months. If the virus spreads into India, it could quickly target large portions of India’s economic capabilities. We are very early into this potential pandemic event. The growth rates reported by China suggest only a 2~3% death rate, yet an almost exponential growth rate for the number of invested. It started off below 100 about 10+ days ago and is now almost ready to break 10k.
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Friday, January 31, 2020
Asian Stock Markets Analysis - China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
Asia stocks are extremely volatile right now. To help you take advantage of the big moves, our friends at Elliott Wave International have scrambled together a rare free week of their subscription services that cover Asia.
You can see what's going on -- what the waves are saying -- at no cost to you.
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Thursday, January 30, 2020
Deep Analysis and charts: Risk Market ignore global pandemic fears / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Submissions
There has been two major events in January. First there was the brief intensification of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which quickly ramped back down. Secondly there is the coronavirus epidemic in China, which in the space of a week has spread from Wuhan and imprinted itself globally at pandemic levels, bringing much of China to a standstill when it would usually be celebrating the Lunar New Year.
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Thursday, January 30, 2020
Are We Setting Up For A Stock Market Waterfall Selloff? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Most traders understand what a “Waterfall event” is if you’ve been trading for more than 3 years. Nearly every downside price reversion event initiates in a breakdown event (the first tier of the waterfall event) which is followed by additional deeper waterfall price collapses. Almost like price breaks lower, finds support, settles near support, then breaks lower targeting deeper price support levels.
SPY Daily Chart
This example SPY chart from October 2018 through December 2018 highlights this type of event almost perfectly. With each tier in the waterfall event, price searches for new support levels as price weakness drives price lower throughout each breakdown event. We’ve highlighted these breakdown events with the MAGENTA lines drawn on this chart.
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Wednesday, January 29, 2020
The "Everything Bubble" Just Burst. Here's Why / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold reflects on how government actions in the financial and public health spheres will pop market bubbles.
I was in Vietnam from July 1968 until March 1970. From November 1968 until July 1969 I was flying the O-1 Birddog as a forward air controller (FAC). Back then I used to believe all the bull our government puts out. Now, when Trump says the Iranians fired missiles at a US base in Iraq and none of our troops were injured, I know at once he was lying. And sure enough, two weeks later we find that 34 soldiers were injured.
Governments lie about everything and as a result we are about to pay a terrible price. All of them lie.
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Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Is an Accommodative Fed Bullish for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"In 2007-2008, the Fed cut rates 10 times, but the S&P 500 still declined 58%"
Many investors heed every utterance from the Federal Reserve, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that a fall in interest rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates will push stocks lower.
First, Elliott Wave International's research shows that the Fed follows the bond market. It doesn't lead it.
Secondly, EWI's research reveals that stock prices have risen during trends of lower and higher rates. Likewise, there have been periods of falling stock prices during trends of lower and higher rates too. In other words, there is no consistent correlation between the trends of stocks and interest rates.
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Monday, January 27, 2020
THIS ONE THING Will Tell Us When the Bubble Economy Is Bursting… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, President and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael's a well-known money manager, market commentator and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years and we always love getting his fantastic insights.
Michael, thanks for the time again today, and welcome back.
Michael Pento: It's always a pleasure to be on with you. Thank you for inviting me back on the program.
Mike Gleason: Well, we're having a hard time seeing a big move higher in metals prices until one of two things happen. We'll start here. The first would be a pickup and safe haven demand. In our view there is too much investor complacency given the circumstances as has been the case for a while now, equity market valuations are sky high. Now we've got an election coming up, and there is at least some chance our next president will be an avowed socialist. This does not seem like the time for investors to be all in on risk trades, but we suppose the only thing that really matters is the Fed. They are going to do whatever it takes to keep the party in the stock markets going.
Monday, January 27, 2020
Stock Market, Gold Black Swan Event Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread. The US Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes of trading. Gold opened $10 higher and continued to rally to a level above $15 higher.
If this is early price activity, or a reactionary price move, related to fear of what may come, then the warnings signs are very clear that global traders and investors believe this virus outbreak may very well turn into a major Black Swan event.
Our research team believes a 5% to 8% rotation should be considered a normal reversion range where price may find immediate support and attempt to rally from these support levels. Anything beyond 10% may set up a much bigger price reversion event, something akin to a Black Swan event. Therefore, we are advising our friends and followers to take the necessary steps to protect your wealth and assets as this move continued to extend.
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Monday, January 27, 2020
US Presidential Cycle Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2019 the Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.
This video is part 5 of a series of 6 that concludes in an overall trend forecast into the end of 2020.
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Sunday, January 26, 2020
Stock Market Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Limited correction underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, January 24, 2020
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team caught a very interesting price pattern that correlates with the Put/Call ratio. We are alerting our friends and followers with this research post of this exciting, yet unconfirmed, set up today.
In late 2017, the US stock market rallied from July through December with moderately low volatility throughout this span of time. Near the end of 2017, the US stock market price activity stalled, then began a renewed price rally in early 2018 (see the first BLUE & YELLOW BOX on the chart below). Then, in January 2018, a very broad market reversion event took place which ultimately resulted in a very broad market correction in October through December 2018 of just over 20%.
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Friday, January 24, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Waves Trend Forecast 2020 - Video / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2019 the Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.
This video is part 4 of a series of 6 that concludes in an overall trend forecast into the end of 2020.
1 Stock Market 2019 Review
2 QE4Ever
3 Trend Analysis
4 Elliott Wave analysis
5 US Presidential cycle
6 Stock Market Forecast 2020
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Stocks Rise as Zombie Companies Proliferate / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
Share prices on the major US exchanges are hitting all-time highs at the same time that both the number and percentage of companies that do not make any money at all are rising.According to the Wall Street Journal, the percentage of publicly-traded companies in the U.S. that have lost money over the past 12 months has jumped close to 40% of all listed corporations--its highest level since the NASDAQ bubble and outside of post-recession periods.
In fact, 74% of Initial Public Offerings in 2019 didn’t make any money as opposed to just 25% in 1990—matching the total of money-losing ventures that IPOED at the height of the 2000 Dotcom mania. The percentage of all listed companies that have lost money for the past three years in a row has surged close to 30%; this compares with just over 10% for the trailing three years in the late 1990s.
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Monday, January 20, 2020
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
The US equity market has now risen more than 10% since the index broke the ascending triangle at 3025.
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Monday, January 20, 2020
FOMO or FOPA or Au? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
FOMO, the well-known acronym standing for “Fear Of Missing Out” relates to the conviction that an investor needs to remain invested in financial markets for otherwise he may miss out gains which are generated by steadfast easy money policies of the FED. It also embodies the belief that if markets are to decline from deteriorating economic fundamentals, the FED will bail out investors by providing some kind of additional market stimulus. Embracing this simple principle has been profitable to investors in recent years. FOMO encapsulates the oft-proven axiom: don’t fight the FED.
FOPA, is newly-conjured acronym standing for “Fear Of Participating in the Avalanche” which relates to the possibility of a sudden or severe market decline. Interestingly, this acronym has the same pronunciation as the well-known French term “faux pas” which can be translated as “mistake”. Those more conservative investors suspicious of present bubble markets will avoid FOMO investing principles not wanting to make an investment strategy mistake, and therefore embrace FOPA - simply exiting the market to hold cash.
Au is the scientific symbol in Mendeleev’s Periodic Table of elements for gold. Gold has evolved over millennia through market competition throughout the world to serve as mankind’s preference for money. Every paper form of money ever created has ultimately failed, reducing to a zero value. Present use, still-existing paper currencies have proven to be poor stores of value, as relentless expansion of the currency supply reduces purchasing value. Gold is the ultimate proven holder of value, and as such is purchased at times when financial markets are chaotic or at risk of substantial decline. Investors concerned that a FOPA investment strategy, while protecting against a market decline, does not protect one against a financial system collapse will activate the Au asset preservation policy.
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Monday, January 20, 2020
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.
The Kitchin Cycle is still working.
We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out.
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Sunday, January 19, 2020
Stock Market Final Thrust Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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