Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 24, 2019
Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds On Verge of Sell-off / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have been warning of a peak in the markets and a continued capital shift in the global economy that continued to push the NASDAQ and DOW towards new all-time highs while the foundations of the global markets continued to weaken.
I authored dozens of research posts regarding this phenomenon over the past 90+ days. Yet the clearest signs of this event may already be present in these Consumer Discretionary Sector and Corporate Bonds charts.
Consumers drive economic activity and corporate debt is often a measure of sustainable debt function within a functioning economy. When consumers tighten their belts and exit the economy in some form and Corporate debt is viewed as “more toxic” than “opportunistic” – something has changed in the global economy where a portion of the active consumer engagement of that economy is waning or has already left the building.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Adaptive Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Weakness Into 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the Transportation Index will fall to levels near $10,000 over the next 2 to 3 weeks which would indicate moderate price weakness in the US stock market and the global stock market.
Our ADL predictive modeling system attempts to model future price activity by finding and mapping critical price and technical elements within the historical price action. In a way, this is like mapping the future by attempting to learn from the past. You can get all of my trade ideas by opting into my free market trend signals newsletter.
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Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Why Record-High Stock Prices Mean You Should Buy More / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
Nobody wants to be the schmuck who bought stocks at the tippy-top.
Did you check your 401(k) this week? If so, you surely noticed US stocks hit new all-time highs. And the S&P 500 is now on track for its best year since 1996.
How does this make you feel in your gut? Are you happy stocks are achieving new highs? Or does it scare you... tempt you to sell all your stocks… and run for cover?
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Plethora of Potential Financial Crisis Triggers / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US-based bond market is in tragic condition. All the bonds in US financial markets reek of rigged prices and inflated values. It is not a single bond sector, but rather all bond sectors that are in deep trouble, against a background of multi-year economic recession. The USTreasury Bonds, given the over $1.0 trillion in supply and widespread absence of buyers, deserves a 10% yield. The stolen missing $21 trillion amplifies the vacant value, from a grand crime scene. It is a wonder that investigator Professor Skidmore of Michigan State Univ has not been charged with financial terrorism. The USTBond market is teetering, kept afloat by overnight enormous slugs of fake money, which in early November was over $250 billion on a daily basis. If it was put onto the USFed balance sheet, on an increasingly frequent basis, then it is called QE. Better get real, and call it what it actually is – INFINITE Q.E. FOREVER. The Gold price is preparing the next launch platform.
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Trade News Still Relevant? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 17, 2019
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: readtheticker
Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet? readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets.
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
News does drive certain market events and we understand how certain traders rely on news or interest rates to bias their positions and trades. As technical analysis purists, so to say, we believe the price operates within pure constructs of price rotation theory, trend theory, technical indicator theory, and price cycles. We’ve found that technical analysis distills many news items into pure technical trading signals that we can use to profit from market swings.
Price is the ultimate indicator in our view. Price determines current trends, support/resistance levels/channels, past price peaks and troughs and much more. When we apply our proprietary price modeling and price cycle tools, we can gain a very clear picture of what price may attempt to do in the near future and even as far as a few months into the future. Price, as the ultimate indicator, truly is the mathematical core element of all future price activity, trends, and reversions. Before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2019
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: MoneyMetals
The recent price smash in precious metals is frustrating for goldbugs. It is even more infuriating for those who look at the fundamental reasons to own gold and silver and see prices falling anyway.
That’s why it’s worth explaining once again the real purpose of the futures markets, where prices are set. Some recent revelations about Bitcoin futures will help.
The CME launched a Bitcoin futures contract in December of 2017, and many cryptocurrency fans cheered. Those who cheered expected “institutional” money to pour into Bitcoin. Their mistakes were in assuming the institutions would be making long bets on Bitcoin and the futures market would be free and fair.
Monday, November 11, 2019
If You Want Trump Out, You Need To Sell Your Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.
I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This current market environment is very reminiscent of the 2006-08 market environment where price rotated into weakness on technicals and continued to establish new all-time price highs in the process – creating what we are calling a “zombie-land melt-up”. This very dangerous price action is indicative of money chasing a falling trend. Where technicals and fundamentals are suggesting that price is actually weakening quite substantial, yet the process of price exploration is continually biased towards the upside as investors continue to pile onto the back of the beast expecting a further melt-up.
Let’s take a look at what happened to the ES and Gold in 2006 and 2007. But, wait before you continue reading make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
Stock Market Cycles Peaking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
Is There a Stock Market Breakout Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Somehow the stock market is expecting growth to re-accelerate after a disappointing 2.0% GDP growth in Q2. The only sign of such growth in the stock market is central banks lowering rates and expanding their balance sheets again. Q3 just came in at 1.9%, just below the 2.0% last quarter. And that covers over the bigger decline in consumer spending down from 3.03% in Q2 to 1.93% in Q3. Business investment continues to trickle down as did last quarter.
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Wednesday, November 06, 2019
Stock Market Ongoing Acceleration Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
After Sunday night's grind up, Monday’s regular trading hours session was just a very tight consolidation overall range of 3083-3072.5 on the S&P 500, trapping and baiting traders as it gets ready for the next move. Price action could not gather enough strength yet to break above the 3085 key level and force a mini squeeze towards the 3100 major short-term level.
The main takeaway from this session is that the market is still showcasing the ongoing acceleration phase from last week’s breakout above 3029.5 (prior ATHs). However, the market is battling against the 3085/3100 resistance zone, and based on the current odds showcasing another temporary top setup before ramping higher. If it does not, then it opens up a rare scenario where 3193.75 target could be reached directly with a vertical squeeze to erase all doubts/odds. Know your timeframes because ultimately a temporary top/consolidation setup allows the market to backtest significant trending supports in order to reset the internals and ramp higher at a later date.
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Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Time for Investors to Reset Their Portfolios for Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As investors reset their clocks to accord with the end of Daylight Savings Time, they may also need to reset their expectations for future returns.
A strong body of research suggests that artificially changing the time twice a year – forward, then backward an hour – does more harm than good. It leads to sleep disruptions, heightened stress, missed appointments, wasted time (ironically), and a diminishment of productivity around these biannual time changes.
As reported in HeadlineHealth, “Circadian biologists believe ill health effects from daylight saving time result from a mismatch among the sun ‘clock,’ our social clock – work and school schedules – and the body’s internal 24-hour body clock.”
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Chartology vs Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been holding off on writing this Weekend Report for the US stock markets until I got just a little more confirmation that the next impulse move higher is underway. Last weeks price action is strongly suggesting that the nearly 2 year consolidation phase is drawing to a close. Lets say I’m seeing some green shoots sprouting up in many different areas of the markets.
Most investors rely on the fundamentals in which to make their trading decisions because that is how its been since the beginning of trading the markets. Fundamentals do have a place in investing in the long term trend but they usually lag at the beginning of a major turn in the markets. Normally when the fundamentals turn up at the bottom of a bear market the price action has already turned up many months in advance. The same thing is also true at tops. Before the fundamentals turn down the smart money has already gotten out while those looking at the fundamentals are left holding the bag.
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Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Warning: US Credit Delinquencies To Skyrocket In Q4 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Farm delinquencies skyrocket +24% year over year as global trade issues and the ability to service credit continues to be a problem. This is a tell-tale sign that the US Fed decreased the Prime Rate recently as a result of broader credit issues related to higher interest rates for corporate and other borrowers. The last thing the Fed wants is another collapse on the lending markets similar to 2008-09.
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Intermediate Topping Process Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market $SPY Expanded Flat, Déjà Vu All Over Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
A Flat is one of the corrective structures in the Elliott Wave Theory. It is in our opinion the most dangerous and also less reliable structure. The reason is because a Flat allow analysts and traders to force a bias against the trend. Many times the market fails to reach traders’ correction target. When the market reacts different to the expectation and breaks into new highs or lows, analysts like to call an expanded flat as a way out. This is the last resource to prove they are not wrong in their original forecast. The structure of expanded flat looks like the following chart below:
Thursday, October 31, 2019
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND ANALYSIS
Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow bounced from trendline support targeting resistance at 27,300 which it failed to reach before turning lower.The overall pattern is that of a converging triangle towards a breakout point. Where the ultimate direction of the breakout is not clear. The immediate trend targets the support trend line currently at around 26,000.
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Thursday, October 31, 2019
Stock Market Long-Term Predictive Software Suggests Volatility May Surge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks and months, a number of key economic data has continued to rally the US major indexes towards new highs, hopes of a US/China trade deal, a continued shift of capital in the US markets for protection and safety, and moderately strong US economic indicators and an earning season that appears to be moderately strong for Q3 of 2019. The interesting facet of this move higher is that it is happening while trading volume has diminished dramatically in the SPY. The futures contracts, the ES, YM, and NQ, continue to show relatively strong volume activity though.
Additionally, the overnight Repo markets have risen to the attention of many skilled analysts. The concern is that the continued US Fed support of the overnight Repo facility may be a band-aid attempt to support a gaping credit crisis that is brewing just outside of view. We’ve been doing quite a bit of research over the past few weeks regarding this Repo market support by the US Fed and we believe there is more to it than many believe. We believe certain institutional banking firms may be at extreme risks related to derivative investments, shadow banking activities and/or global commodity/stock/currency/asset risk exposure. The only answer we have for the extended Repo facility at increasing levels is that the institutional banking system is starting to “fray around the edges”. Thus, we believe some larger credit risk problems may be just around the corner.
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