Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 08, 2020
Stock Market Forecast 2020 Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Long-term Trend Analysis
The Dow finally breached resistance along a series of sub 28k highs of the past 2 years that propelled the Dow towards 29k.
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Wednesday, January 08, 2020
NASDAQ Set to Fall 1000pts Early 2020, and What it Means for Gold Price / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of our most interesting predictive modeling system is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system. It is capable of learning from past price data, building price DNA chains and attempting to predict future price activity with a fairly high degree of accuracy. The one thing we’ve learned about the ADL system is that when price mirrors the ADL predictive modeling over a period of time, then there is often a high probability that price will continue to mirror the ADL price predictions.
One of our more infamous ADL predictions was our October 2018 Gold ADL prediction chart (below). This chart launched a number of very interesting discussions with industry professionals about predictive modeling and our capabilities regarding Adaptive Learning. Eric Sprott, of Sprott Money, highlighted some of our analyses related to the ADL predictive modeling system in June and July 2019. Our ADL predictive modeling system suggested a bottom would form in Gold near April/May 2019 and then Gold would rally up toward $1600 by September 2019, then rotate a bit lower near $1550 levels.
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Wednesday, January 08, 2020
Stock Market Trend Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, January 07, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - QE4Ever! Video / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My consistent message since QE money printing began a few weeks prior to the birth of this stocks bull market in March 2009, my message has been that once QE money printing starts then it NEVER ENDS! So LEVERAGE once self to the perma money printing INFLATION MEGA-TREND. Invest in assets that are LEVERAGED TO INFLATION.
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Monday, January 06, 2020
A Financial Crisis Has Already Begun… We Just Don’t Know It Yet / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: John_Mauldin
Let’s address an elephant in the room: the rapidly expanding federal debt. Each annual deficit raises the total debt and forces the Treasury to issue more debt, in hopes someone will buy it.
The US government ran a $343 billion deficit in the first two months of fiscal 2020 (October and November), and the 12-month budget deficit again surpassed $1 trillion. Federal spending rose 7% from a year earlier while tax receipts grew only 3%.
No problem, some say, we owe it to ourselves, and anyway people will always buy Uncle Sam’s debt. That is unfortunately not true.
Sunday, January 05, 2020
What Global Stock Markets Drop After US Iran Missile Strike Mean? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Stock Market contracted in early morning trading on Friday, January 3, by more than 1% after news of the missile attack in Baghdad targeting a top-level Iranian military General and others. After the attack on the US Embassy in Iraq last week, President Trump issued a strong warning that the US would act to protect its people throughout the world and Iran scoffed at this message. It would certainly appear President Trump means business and won’t hesitate to stop terrorists from acting against the US – no matter where they are in the world.
This news, overnight, pushed Oil, Gold, Silver and most precious metals higher. The fear factor associated with the unknowns of what may come from these actions shot through the roof over the past 24 hours. The global stock markets contracted by a fairly strong amount in Friday’s trading. Most global markets were off by 0.75% to levels well over 1%.
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Sunday, January 05, 2020
Beware the Stock Market 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Bob Moriarty takes a look at drivers in the bull market and sees a bear in the wings.
While I happen to be a giant fan of the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI), I also use a bunch of other signals. The DSI is the single best indicator I've found but there are dozens of other measures of investor sentiment. If you are a contrarian, you search constantly for some way of figuring out what investors are thinking.
Investing at a profit is actually simple. The mob is always wrong. Always wrong. Figure out what the mob is thinking and do the opposite.
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Friday, January 03, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Review 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Stocks bull market is on course to end 2019, it's 11th year up by 24% with the Dow's last close of 28,462 against 23,062 of 31st Dec 2018. This the first of a series of videos that concludes in my forecast expectations for the stock market into the end of 2020.
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Thursday, January 02, 2020
Most Popular Financial and Stock Markets Analysis of 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Review 2019
The Stocks bull market is on course to end 2019, it's 11th year up by 24% with the Dow's last close of 28,462 against 23,062 of 31st Dec 2018.
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Thursday, January 02, 2020
Basel III and Bailouts: What Do They Mean for Financial Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable interviews Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments about the implications of monetary policies being implemented by central banks worldwide, and about the state of the U.S. economy.
Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Andy Schectman, the president of Miles Franklin Precious Metals Investments. Today we will address Basel III, the state of U.S. markets and the Fed's new bailout program, and how you may benefit financially.
Andy, you're a big thinker, and I would say years ahead of most people in the space in your ability to critically and analytically think and cipher through the noise, which is why we're delighted to have you on the program today. I want to begin our discussion at the 30,000-foot level, and have you share with us the implications of Basel III. Let me begin by asking, what is Basel III, and why should precious metals investors be aware of this decision-making body?
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Thursday, January 02, 2020
Stock Market What To Expect In Early 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock market has recently rallied throughout most of the last year after the very deep downside price rotation in late 2018. Our researchers believe there is a very high likelihood of this trend continuing in early 2020, yet we would need to see confirmation across various broader indicators before we could determine the strength of this upside price trend.
We warned that a downside price rotation may happen near the end of 2019 – which never really materialized. The August 2019 downside price rotation looked like it may turn into a deeper downside price move, but the news cycle ended that move as the US Fed decreased rates again and the news of a pending US/China trade deal continued to be pushed into the news cycle. Here we are 3+ months later and we really have no US/China trade deal signed yet.
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Thursday, January 02, 2020
Why History’s Longest Stocks Bull Market Is Just Getting Started / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Robert_Ross
Doom and gloom predictions about the stock market drive click. I get it.
But those predictions have fallen flat for 10 years straight.
US stocks keep marching higher, and history’s longest bull market keeps getting longer. Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 since February 2009. It’s climbed 325%:
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Stocks bull market is on course to end 2019, it's 11th year up by 24% with the Dow's last close of 28,462 against 23,062 of 31st Dec 2018.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Stock Market Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Don’t Fall for This Deadly Dividend Trap / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Ross
When’s the last time you bought Kraft Mac & Cheese?I imagine it’s been a while.
Thirty years ago, every cupboard in America had a box. But consumer trends have shifted. People don’t want hyper-processed foods like Kraft Mac & Cheese anymore.
Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, must have overlooked this when he bought a 27% stake in Kraft Heinz (KHC) in 2015.
Not long after, Kraft’s sales flatlined. Earnings rose slightly, but this came from cutting costs, not growing sales.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Fed’s Fake Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets soared in 2019, blasting to dozens of new all-time-record highs. Euphoric traders attributed these massive gains to strong corporate fundamentals and US-China trade-war progress. But the real driver of stocks’ astounding ascent was the Federal Reserve’s epic extreme easing. A panicking Fed pulled out all the stops to goose and levitate stocks, leaving fake artificially-inflated markets in its wake.
This year’s huge stock-market rally delighted nearly everyone, generating widespread euphoria. That made Americans feel wealthier, leading them to spend more freely. That pushed corporate sales and profits higher than they otherwise would’ve been. Speculators and investors loved the easy largely-one-sided gains. And stocks’ biggest fan, Trump, reveled in what lofty record stock markets implied about his policies.
With the flagship US S&P 500 stock index (SPX) rocketing up an amazing 28.6% year-to-date at best by late December, everything looked awesome. Record-high stock markets must mean the US economy is booming, the best of times. But under that happy-headline facade, the real stock-market picture is deeply troubling. The SPX’s monster gains have been directly driven by an American central bank terrified of a recession.
Some background context is necessary to understand 2019’s stunning stock-market action. Back in late 2008, the US stock markets were slammed by the first true panic in 101 years. The SPX plummeted 30.0% in a single month, which proved part of a larger 56.8% bear. That threatened a severe recession if not an outright depression due to stock markets’ powerful wealth effect. The Fed rushed to mitigate those risks.
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Friday, December 27, 2019
Stock Market Festivus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
They say that Festivus is the “anti-Christmas”, but in this case we are going to call it the anti-Christmas Eve as the markets close out 2019’s Christmas Eve massacre.
“Many Christmases ago I went to buy a doll for my son. I reached for the last one they had, but so did another man. As I rained blows upon him I realized there had to be another way!”
This year markets are going another way.
We have been managing a potential Christmas Eve close-out sale in the stock market since SPX hopped the Bull Turnstile, negating topping potential and confirming bullish ascending triangles (not shown below as they appeared on daily charts) and its own major trends by breaking upward. Here is the most recent chart (from NFTRH 582) used to illustrate the situation.
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Monday, December 23, 2019
Stock Market Trend Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely near an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, December 21, 2019
Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearing the end of 2019, our research team continues to attempt to dissect the market rally in an effort to present credible research and timely insights to skilled technical traders. We recently authored a research article discussing the potential that the US Stock market is less than 2.5% away from a major resistance level that could prompt a massive market top. You can read our research related to these Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs here.
This recent research leads us to revisit the recent blow-off rotation in recent markets. The typical market cycle moves from through these cycles Stealth Phase, the Awareness Phase, the Mania Phase and finally to the Blow-Off Phase. The Stealth Phase is where the smart money pours into the market taking advantage of undervalued assets/equities. The Awareness phase is where more traditional and retail investors pile into assets that have formed traditional bottom formation and started to rally. The Mania Phase is when enthusiasm and greed take over and when the market moves higher in a parabolic price mode – ultimately reaching a massive top. Then, we start the Blow-Off Phase which usually starts with a deep “R” type price rotation – followed by extended selling.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Standing Ovation For the Stock Market Bull Train / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The second week of December played out in a picture-perfect manner offering little to no surprises per our expectations. If you recall, this setup was fully assisted by the ongoing bull train/trend and the first week of December daily 20EMA "stick-save" setup where everybody and their mother had opportunities to load up for dirt cheap per our KISS Report discussions. In essence, last week played out as the usual daily 8EMA acceleration and the market was guns blazing into the 3193.75 multi-month measured move target on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) that most market participants that were biased would discount. Well, here we are as expected, the market is now heading into Christmas/year end closing print with ES/SPY being up about +27% for YTD with a lot of traders just in an autopilot mode as it’s been a spectacular year.
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