Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 05, 2019
Time for Investors to Reset Their Portfolios for Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As investors reset their clocks to accord with the end of Daylight Savings Time, they may also need to reset their expectations for future returns.
A strong body of research suggests that artificially changing the time twice a year – forward, then backward an hour – does more harm than good. It leads to sleep disruptions, heightened stress, missed appointments, wasted time (ironically), and a diminishment of productivity around these biannual time changes.
As reported in HeadlineHealth, “Circadian biologists believe ill health effects from daylight saving time result from a mismatch among the sun ‘clock,’ our social clock – work and school schedules – and the body’s internal 24-hour body clock.”
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Chartology vs Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been holding off on writing this Weekend Report for the US stock markets until I got just a little more confirmation that the next impulse move higher is underway. Last weeks price action is strongly suggesting that the nearly 2 year consolidation phase is drawing to a close. Lets say I’m seeing some green shoots sprouting up in many different areas of the markets.
Most investors rely on the fundamentals in which to make their trading decisions because that is how its been since the beginning of trading the markets. Fundamentals do have a place in investing in the long term trend but they usually lag at the beginning of a major turn in the markets. Normally when the fundamentals turn up at the bottom of a bear market the price action has already turned up many months in advance. The same thing is also true at tops. Before the fundamentals turn down the smart money has already gotten out while those looking at the fundamentals are left holding the bag.
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Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Warning: US Credit Delinquencies To Skyrocket In Q4 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Farm delinquencies skyrocket +24% year over year as global trade issues and the ability to service credit continues to be a problem. This is a tell-tale sign that the US Fed decreased the Prime Rate recently as a result of broader credit issues related to higher interest rates for corporate and other borrowers. The last thing the Fed wants is another collapse on the lending markets similar to 2008-09.
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market Intermediate Topping Process Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, November 04, 2019
Stock Market $SPY Expanded Flat, Déjà Vu All Over Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
A Flat is one of the corrective structures in the Elliott Wave Theory. It is in our opinion the most dangerous and also less reliable structure. The reason is because a Flat allow analysts and traders to force a bias against the trend. Many times the market fails to reach traders’ correction target. When the market reacts different to the expectation and breaks into new highs or lows, analysts like to call an expanded flat as a way out. This is the last resource to prove they are not wrong in their original forecast. The structure of expanded flat looks like the following chart below:
Thursday, October 31, 2019
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TREND ANALYSIS
Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow bounced from trendline support targeting resistance at 27,300 which it failed to reach before turning lower.The overall pattern is that of a converging triangle towards a breakout point. Where the ultimate direction of the breakout is not clear. The immediate trend targets the support trend line currently at around 26,000.
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Thursday, October 31, 2019
Stock Market Long-Term Predictive Software Suggests Volatility May Surge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks and months, a number of key economic data has continued to rally the US major indexes towards new highs, hopes of a US/China trade deal, a continued shift of capital in the US markets for protection and safety, and moderately strong US economic indicators and an earning season that appears to be moderately strong for Q3 of 2019. The interesting facet of this move higher is that it is happening while trading volume has diminished dramatically in the SPY. The futures contracts, the ES, YM, and NQ, continue to show relatively strong volume activity though.
Additionally, the overnight Repo markets have risen to the attention of many skilled analysts. The concern is that the continued US Fed support of the overnight Repo facility may be a band-aid attempt to support a gaping credit crisis that is brewing just outside of view. We’ve been doing quite a bit of research over the past few weeks regarding this Repo market support by the US Fed and we believe there is more to it than many believe. We believe certain institutional banking firms may be at extreme risks related to derivative investments, shadow banking activities and/or global commodity/stock/currency/asset risk exposure. The only answer we have for the extended Repo facility at increasing levels is that the institutional banking system is starting to “fray around the edges”. Thus, we believe some larger credit risk problems may be just around the corner.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Interference Most Foul: When Speculation Becomes Reality / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger ruminates on the bubble-popping influence of government and the banking sector on cryptocurrencies, and offers a brief rundown on his most current holdings.
To put it mildly, the business of financial forecasting is not only an inexact science, it is a magnified case study in handicapping, the likes of which you find in sports betting such as horse racing or basketball. You take a basket of data inputs, such as the last five heats run by a certain filly or the accuracy of a basketball player shooting free throws and you assign various weights to the data, which allows you to determine whether the horse or the player has the ability to shine.
In financial forecasting, you take a similar basket of inputs, such as 10-year Treasury yields and average dividend yields, plus a barrage of other factors, which allows you to gauge direction and amplitude. In sports, you are handicapping a winner, and by how much, while in financial forecasting you are handicapping the direction and by how much.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Stock Market Nominal New Highs Reached – Skilled Traders Should Still Be Cautious / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Stock market rallied on Friday, October 25, on TESLA earnings crushing expectations as well as news that any positive US trade deal outcomes could see almost immediate removal of future tariffs that are scheduled to be implemented near the end of October. This was enough for the markets to rally from the start of trading and continue to push higher until near Noon in NY. After new highs were reached, the markets contracted a bit headed into the close.
Gold shot up early this morning before the news related to the US trade deal hit. Our opinion is that this is a natural advancement in precious metals that is not new related or muted by some external factors. Precious metals have been setting up a sideways FLAG formation for over 2 months and we believe the apex/breakout move is near.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
How to Avoid the Next 50% Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Michael_Pento
This ageing bull market may soon face the third market collapse since the year 2000. Nobody can predict the exact starting date of its decline—but either a recession or stagflation will surely be its catalyst. During the next debacle, the typical balanced portfolio designed by Wall Street, which consists of approximately 60% stocks and 40% bonds, will no longer provide much protection at all. In fact, that type of portfolio construct has become downright dangerous. The simple reason for this is that for the first time ever both stocks and bonds are in a massive and unprecedented bubble; and are therefore both vulnerable to significant selloffs. Bonds will no longer provide a ballast or offset to your stock portfolio once reality hits both of those asset classes. If a bond has a 5% yield and has 30 years left to maturity; that holder would lose 25% of his principal if interest rates rise by just 2%. Given the fact that bond yields are the lowest in history, an increase of 2% is certainly not out of the question; and is in fact most likely inevitable.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My in-depth analysis of 30th September 2019 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019 concluded in expectations for a probable deep correction during October which would set the market up for a santa rally into the end of the year -
Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend towards Dow 27,500 by the end of this year following a significant correction during October that could see the Dow trade as low as 24k.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
A Stock Market New All-Time High Is Not Always Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
There is a significant amount of frustration from the bulls and bears alike as the market has been basically in a trading range for many, many months. So, before we go into my expectations for the coming months, I want to review how we got here.
As the market began its rally off the December lows of 2018, my initial expectation was that we could top out as we headed into the March/April time frame.
Clearly, the market had other intentions as it extended the timing for my correction expectations, and in quite a similar fashion as to what we saw in 2014-2015. Yet, we are still well within the price target expectations I outlined at the end of 2018.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Stock Market Final Touch? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building an intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, October 28, 2019
Three Stock Charts Every Investor Needs to See This Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks broke upwards last week from the consolidation pattern we’ve been watching.
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Sunday, October 27, 2019
Stock Market Dynamics Changing for Year End Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Last week saw the US equity markets testing the all time highs and moving back a little. The action has been healthy. Markets are almost sanguinely comfortable that everything everywhere is doing great. The risks to the downside in economy seems not as important to investors.
We look at a plethora of charts and setups to drive the point which we have been making that market crash is not coming and we have saying that for over 6 months now. There might be a blip here and there but things are healthy.
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Friday, October 25, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast October to December 2019 (2/2) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the DJIA stocks index into the end of 2019. However, the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct to Dec 2019
- Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
- Yield Curve Inversion Current State
- US Presidential Cycle
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- Short-term Trend Analysis
- Long-term Trend Analysis
- MACD
- VIX
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Formulating a Stock Market Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
- AI Stocks Buying Levels
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Money Printing Fuelled Stocks Bull Market Hurtling Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock markets so far have confounded expectations for a deeper October correction by dutifully rallying for an assault on resistance, with the Dow trading to barely 0.5% of its all time high, all whilst the Trump and the Brexit chaos shows continue in the US and the UK. So how can this be? To once more iterate the general indices are on an exponential upwards curve, where deviations from the highs being buying opportunities for the fundamental reason of exponential money printing by whatever names it may go, QE, government bonds etc.. Governments of the world continue to print money that drives the exponential inflation mega-trend to which stock and other asset prices are leveraged.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Stock Market New All-Time Highs By Year End - But, It May Not Be What You Expect / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.
What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
What's Wrong With The Stock Market Smart Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Jason Goepfert writes: Another one bites the dust
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest reading shows a 2nd consecutive drop month-over-month.
The LEI hasn’t gone much of anywhere for a year, showing signs of plateauing. Its Bollinger Band has tightened to a near-record degree, showing that the index has flattened out over the past year.
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