Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, October 03, 2019
Dow Jones may have already bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq have further to go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Have you been following our research? Were you prepared for this move like we were? Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets? What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?
Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened. In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES. On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”. On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Cycles Supporting Market Consolidations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Cycles show how regular time and price periods work within price action, they help thread the needle as to where price may move to next. Cycles with Wyckoff logic help expose how fundamentals are working through price action to motivate price to a new level. Here are some examples of cycles with other readtheticker indicators. Chart 1: If the SP500 trends higher on QE4 and gold holds up, then gold stocks should do well, and most likely out perform gold itself.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Stock Market Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets. The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing. Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.
This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait. With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related. It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Conclusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Rotation in NQ and ES / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.
The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Will Stock Market S&P 2955 Break or Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Ricky_Wen
The fourth week of September played out as a downside range consolidation pattern as the bulls failed their immediate upside setup and bears tried to resurrect themselves. In hindsight, the week played out according to statistics since 1960 as the week after September OPEX remains the weakest week. The only problem with the week is that there was still no decisive winner as price kept flirting with the 2955 breakdown or hold-above pattern on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). Friday during RTH pierced below 2955 for a few minutes, but the price action was unwilling to close below it, so everything is still stuck in the overall range.
The main takeaway from the fourth week of September is that both sides are starting to get impatient now because it’s been two weeks of digestion versus the three weeks of August continuous upside grind. The only thing that matters now is whether this is just a simple backtest of August’s breakout 2930-2940 zone or bears finally can resurrect themselves with the 3020s double-top pattern.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
The Fed Has Admitted It Screwed Up… the Next Crisis is Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
That’s THREE strikes against the Fed.
The Fed cut rates again in September.
At this point, trying to keep track of the Fed’s reasoning for monetary policy is all but impossible. There is no logic or reason behind anything they do.
A year ago, the Fed told us that hiking rates four times a year while running $50 billion in Quantitative Tightening (QT) per month would have no effect on the economy or financial system.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Stock Market Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Price Volatility Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends. The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move. Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility. The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities. Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.
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Saturday, September 28, 2019
Scary Warning Signs in Cash Funding Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies joins me for another top-flight interview as we discuss some major stresses in the financial system that are going to result in some serious issues in the economy. He also talks about the trade summit happening next month and what it will likely mean for precious metals if a deal is struck between the U.S. and China, or if an agreement is not reached. So be sure to stick around for my conversation with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets are trading in wide ranges as they struggle to hold on to gains posted earlier in the week.
As of this Friday recording, the metals are taking it on the chin here today with gold now looking at a weekly decline of 1.6% to trade at $1,494 an ounce. Silver is down 3.0% for the week to come in at $17.49 per ounce. Platinum is moving lower this week by 1.4% and currently fetches $937 an ounce. And finally, palladium is now commanding $1,692 per ounce after rising another 2.7% this week.
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Friday, September 27, 2019
Warning: The Stock Market is on VERY Thin Ice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday’s drop did a lot of damage to the rally.
Stocks rolled over after hitting resistance (red line). They also broke the bearish rising wedge formation they’ve been forming over the last month (blue lines).
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Thursday, September 26, 2019
News and Emotions Aside, This Is Where Stocks and Precious Metals Are Headed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you follow the headline news, read multiple articles a day from different sources on the markets, and are human then you are likely underperforming the market in which you are trying to beat like gold, miners, the SP500 index or whatever it may be.
The information I talk about below and in this video should be a real eye opener for those have not seen technical analysis in action, just how clear the we can see what the stock market, bonds, metals, oil and more will do next. Even at a time like this when the markets are gyrating all over hte place from week to week, we can still gauge our risk and be a winner.
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Thursday, September 26, 2019
Democrats Launch Formal Trump Impeachment – What Should Gold, Stock Traders Expect? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
News of the formal impeachment proceedings came just after the markets closed on September 24, 2019. The markets had already broken a bit lower most of the day after Consumer Confidence and Jobs expectations were weaker than expected. We had just authored a public research post about our belief that the Technology sector was about to breakdown and begin to move lower. Additionally, we pushed out a post about how Silver would become the “Super-Hero” of 2019/2020 based on our expectations of further gains.
We believe the new impeachment proceedings will result in a market that is very similar to what happened when the US invaded Kuwait in August 1990. At that time, the US launched a very fast invasion of Kuwait that prompted a massive news event and resulted in hours of new invasion video that drew millions of Americans into watching the news every night. This invasion was almost like an extended Super Bowl or an extended World Series event where millions of people are actively engaged in this event, stop engaging in the local economy and focus their attentions on the news cycle, content and political circus originating in DC. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Commitment From Stock Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday’s session showcased commitment from bulls as they defended against last week’s 2980.75 key range low support on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) with a double-bottom low at 2982 during Globex trading. Price remained above the daily 20 EMA in the 2970s as the whole range day ground slowly higher with higher lows and higher highs into the regular trading hours (RTH) closing print.
The main takeaway is that the smaller range of 2980-3025 is taking place within the overall 2955-3025 range of the past couple weeks. Everybody and their mother seems to be waiting for this high level consolidation/digestion to complete and for the move toward new all-time highs as we head into next Monday’s quarter end and into October.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Stocks Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes. The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event). The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.
It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020. This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year. Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend. We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend. We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 22, 2019
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researcher team believes a massive global market price reversion/correction may be setting up and may only be a few days or weeks away from initiating. Our team of dedicated researchers and market analysts have been studying the markets, precious metals, and most recently the topping formation in the ES (S&P 500 Index). We believe the current price pattern formation is leading into a price correction/reversion event that could push the US major indexed lower by at least 12 to 15%.
Historically, these types of price reversion events are typically considered “price exploration”. Over time, investors push a pricing/valuation bias into the markets because of expectations and perceptions related to future market valuations and outcomes. What happens when these current valuation levels and future expectations shift perspective from optimistic to potentially overvalued is that a price reversion event takes place. This happens when investors shift focus, determine value exists at a different price level and abandon previous valuation expectations.
The rotation in price is actually a very healthy process that must take place from time to time. The structure of price waves (for example Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick, Gann and other price theories) are based on this process of price rising to overbought levels, then retracing to oversold levels – again and again as price trends higher or lower. This is the process of “price exploration” – just as we are describing. In order for price to trend higher or lower over time, price must move in the wave like pattern to identify true value (retracement/reversion) and extended value (a rally or selloff) in a type of wave formation.
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 2nd of my 2 part latest update to my stock market trend forecast for 2019 (Part1). Also note that the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide).
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs. The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price. When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Meanwhile, Socialist Elizabeth Warren Surges Past Biden
It’s been a big week of geopolitical strife and potential crisis points for financial markets. The week began with one of the biggest single day oil spikes on record, then saw the Federal Reserve lose control of its own interest rate in the repo market before announcing another rate cut.
Yet these and other developments are having surprisingly little impact on Wall Street. We aren’t seeing huge stock market gyrations or a mass migration by investors into precious metals. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for the week while gold prices are trading modestly higher.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark Fed funds rate by a quarter point. Though the move was widely expected, it was not without controversy.
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