Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, June 12, 2009
Stocks Almost Back In Black / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The AC/DC-like comeback since March 9th was almost complete, as the Dow Jones climbed 140 points early on yesterday on the back of better than expected retail sales numbers, a fall in jobless claims (though continuing claims climbed ever higher), a successful 30 year Treasury bond auction and a bullish cross in the 200 and 30 day moving averages. But Boeing lowering it’s 20 year forecast for the commercial plane market for the first time in a decade, oil topping $73 barrel (on an IEA report predicting rising demand) and tech and consumer discretionary stock weakness dragged the major indices back down, resulting in the Dow only registering a 32 point gain. I preferred Bon Scott anyway.
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Friday, June 12, 2009
Looks Like a Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Since humans have been greedy and fearful since the beginning of time, they tend to act in similar ways before, during, and after a financial crisis. These tendencies manifested themselves during the tulip bulb craze of the 1600s, the dot-com craze of the 1990s, and the real estate mania of the 2000s.
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Friday, June 12, 2009
Why the Mainstream Financial Media Could DESTROY Your Stock Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
Welcome to Groundhog Day.
Last year, when Bear Stearns went under and the Federal Reserve intervened via Bear’s shotgun marriage to JP Morgan, the mainstream financial media went absolutely berserk with the “unprecedented market action.” Stocks then rallied in the three months following this, despite the economic and financial fundamentals worsening considerably. However, by the time the summer rolled around, things started to get ugly. And by the 3Q08… well I don’t think anyone wants me to remind them of what happened then.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
Stocks Unconvincing Up Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices had a volatile session in that they were up in the morning, down mid-day, rallied back to new highs, and then rolled over in the last couple hours and gave back a chunk of the gains, but still ended up ahead on the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Stock Market On the Edge of Something Big / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
I wouldn’t believe it unless I saw it myself.
After seeing it though, I’ve felt more confident than ever that the markets will be able to hang onto recent gains and add more over the next few months. Let me explain.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
Stocks Take Solace In the Fed Economic Beige Book / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Déjà vu, as there was a late rally yesterday evening spurred by the Fed’s Beige book which noted that 5 of the 12 districts saw “that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating”. The market had earlier dipped on news of a very stodgy 10 year US Treasury Bond Auction (where investors demanded 3.99%, the highest yield since August 2008, to buy the government securities) and worries about inflation and higher gasoline pump prices. Note also that figures yesterday showed new mortgage applications at a four month low. Hardly surprising given a 30 year mortgage now costs 5.57% from 4.61% in March.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
Financial Assets Classes Quantitative Chart Analysis Comparisons / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
This table presents 336 data points that quantitatively compare 12 attributes of the price charts for 28 key asset categories that may be found in many portfolios. The categories include representation for domestic and foreign bonds, hybrid securities, domestic and foreign stocks, real assets, commodities and currencies.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
Long-term Review of Stock & Commodity Bull Markets, Alternating Leadership / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Over the past 120 years, there has been a constant shifting of leadership between stocks and commodities. From 1875 to 1905, the U.S. stock market provided greater relative performance than raw materials. This changed to highlight commodities over equities from 1905 to 1920. The crown shifted back to stocks throughout the 1920s only to lose that leadership again to natural resources from 1930 to 1946. Stocks, once again, offered greater relative performance over commodities in the the late 1940s and continue to prove superior until 1965 where raw material prices took the leadership back from stocks and provided higher returns for investors until 1982.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Stock Market Afternoon Snapback Rally Pares Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets had a very similar day to Monday in that there was a sharp sell-off in the morning, a bounce mid-day morning and then a move to afternoon lows which pressed weekly support on the SPX. But once again in the afternoon they came back solidly with a move from 1473 to 1495 on the NDX and from 928 to 939 on the SPX, closing near the afternoon rally highs going away and paring way back on the day's losses. However, they did end the session on the downside.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
SDS UltraShort SPY Testing Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The hourly pattern carved out by the ProShares UltraShort SPY (NYSE: SDS) since the beginning of June shows that all the action appears to be developing into a sideways contractionary price range. At this point, a decline that breaks 51.80/50 should trigger downside acceleration to new low territory, while a climb above 55.05/40 should trigger upside continuation towards 57.50-58.00 thereafter. For the time being, after holding 51.79, the SDS likely is only mid-way through with its upward traverse of the recent range, as it heads for a test of 55.00 next.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Stock Market Investors Don't be Fooled by NYSE Advancing and Declining Issues / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Don't be fooled by the number of Advancing and Declining issues every day.
Some investors look at the percentage of issues Advancing and Declining and try to have an opinion about the market's direction. That stops short of getting the full story ... here's why:
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Stocks Snooze While The Great Economic Recovery Debate Rumbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
A light volume yawn day saw equities crawl over the finish line to finish marginally higher. The bigger winners were the semiconductors stocks (up 4%) on the back of the bullish news from Texas Instruments Monday night. VIX (volatility) was down 5% which was odd given the tiny margin moves in the equity indices. Crude oil closed over $71 barrel (a high since Oct 2008) on seasonal demand and spec bets on the reflation trade. The Greenback was again looking soggy losing 1% though the three year Treasury Bond auction went well. Indeed fear of Fed rate hikes by the autumn appear way overdone.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Ten Reasons to Buy Stocks Now / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Jeff Clark writes: For the past few weeks, I've been spouting off about all the reasons to stay out of the stock market.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Stock Market Rally Reaches Stalling Point? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It is courtesy day ... a day where we share one of our charts from the paid subscriber site.
Today's chart is a ten year chart of the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYA) with our C-RSI indicator. (For reference and an explanation of what the C-RSI (zero based Relative Strength) is, please see this link: C-RSI explained.)
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Leading Economic Indicators, S&P 500, and 10 Month Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Over the past month I have highlighted the strategy attributed to Mebane Faber. It is a simple but elegant strategy that probably gets more merit for its aversion to risk than its ability to time the exact bottom of a bear market. It is a strategy - a way of executing a plan of when to buy and sell. It is not a "call" or opinion on the market. That stuff I will leave to others.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
How Investors Can Profit from European Election Results / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: The European election result has been met with little interest in the United States; for one thing, the plethora of parties from 27 different countries makes it almost incomprehensible. Yet it continued a long-term, very important trend, which should be hugely interesting to international investors.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Suspicious Late Day Spike Pushes Stocks Flat / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Some very strange price (and some would say suspicious) action around 20.15 last night saw the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones spike sharply to close flat having been under water to the tune of 130+ points earlier in the session. Despite sluggish sales from McDonalds and news that Apple was cutting the price of its iPhones, traders cited “programme buying” from JP Morgan and UBS for the late rally. After the bell Texas Instruments increased their 2nd quarter forecasts while self appointed Mr Know ALL Nobel prize winner (and boy has it gone to his head) Paul Krugman opined that the Great Recession with end for the U.S. by September.
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Monday, June 08, 2009
Volatile Stock Market Session Closes Flat / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices had a very interesting and volatile session, but closed near the zero line and narrowly mixed.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 08, 2009
Stock Market Summer Trend Into a Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below, with upper 21 and 34 MA Bollinger bands riding the index higher while lower BB’s continue to rise alongside the index, along with a potential Elliott Wave count displayed (which has a lower probability of occurrence compared to the other displayed patterns. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K above the %D in stochastics 1 and 3. If the %K can manage to remain hooked up and cross the %D in stochastic 2, it increases the likelihood that the continued price movement in the S&P 500 index drifts between 900-1000 over the course of the next 1-2 weeks at a minimum before topping out. As the Captain noted and as Elliott Wave charts will later show, there is a chance the markets simply go sideways for the summer before having a fall crash…to risky for most to even attempt playing, so use risk capital and no more than 5% on any given market trade.
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Monday, June 08, 2009
Bull and Bear Market Moves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
With Oversized Deficits Almost Certain to Persist, an Investment In America's Future is One Very Tough Sell - Peter Schiff writes: Just last week, Team Obama took its financial-crisis dog-and-pony show on the road. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner went to China. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke visited Capitol Hill. And President Barack Obama, himself, embarked on a Mideast tour that started in Saudi Arabia.
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