Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Trade Wars Propelling Stock Markets to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
The title may seem a contradictory in nature. Investors understand the current US administration better than many of the main stream media have been portraying. Trump administration will make sure markets will get well over 3000 points before he hits the campaign trail. A minor pull back in trade tensions is all that is needed.
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Monday, June 10, 2019
How Can Stock Market Go Up When We’re Headed Towards a Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The common assumption is that bonds are screaming RECESSION right now, while the stock market refuses to hear it. This isn’t entirely true. While the stock market’s long term risk:reward is certainly not bullish, the economic data suggests that a U.S. recession is not imminent.
Various technical factors also suggest that the medium term is still bullish.
And lastly, the biggest short term risk is still trade war news. If this week demonstrated anything, it is that you cannot trade by guessing the news. Focus on the data & facts.
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Monday, June 10, 2019
US Stock Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Closing out the first week in June 2019, the US stock market rallied hard from recent lows and prompted many traders/investors to rethink their future plans. At the same time, Gold and Silver began a decent price rally of their own while Oil found support just above $50. It certainly has been an interesting week for traders. One that was full of incredible opportunity as many symbols rotated 6 to 12% or more over the past 10+ days.
The fact that Oil is finding support above $50 while Gold and Silver continue to rally suggests that fear may be entering the metals market while Oil may have found a temporary price bottom near $50 to $51. Weakness in the US Dollar is also helping both Oil and Metals to push higher. Our recent research suggests that the US Dollar will find support near $95 indicates the US Dollar may fall a bit further – pushing Oil and Metals a bit higher.
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Monday, June 10, 2019
Stock Market Huge Cosmic Cluster Ahead: Buckle Up! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The cosmic cluster is June 10th-14/16-June 24th. June 10-18 sees a large drop to around 2668/70ish (especially after June 14). The 18th (Merc conj. Mars) is the midpoint of the next Bradley Jun 16-20 (last Bradley June 2-4). June 21 Neptune turns retrograde so we see a secondary low on the 20th right before OPEX (see Nov 23).
The 19-20th sees a tag team cluster with Merc/Mars opposite Pluto: the first one Mars opp Pluto as an 'a' wave top on FED day and Mercury shores it up ('b') down on Thursday reversing into the Neptune retrograde Friday June OPEX, which could be up around 60 pts!!
June 23/24 (top on the 24th) revisits the problems we saw with Jupiter and Neptune (June 10/14-16) and down we go again especially after the G20 summit into July 1, a doozy of a drop as we hit a Jup/Sat secondary top that Saturday (works Friday) with a Sun sextile Uranus on Thursday (hopeful topping action before the summit?).
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Monday, June 10, 2019
Stock Market Higher To Go? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. C-wave in process.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, June 08, 2019
Stock Market Crash Averted - For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
In my last article, I outlined how the same news event can “cause” the market to rally 9% at one time, and drop 5% another time. And, then I noted how I am quite certain there will be some of you that will try to explain away this clear lack of consistency with some form of convoluted “logic.”
And, true to form, some of you did. One such commenter noted:
For about eight months, the market stupidly rose in spite of the China trade war because it was in denial. . . I said, the market would fall. The longer the denial continued and the more the market rose, the harder it would fall when it FINALLY realized that China is NOT going to capitulate.
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Friday, June 07, 2019
Fear Drives Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again. We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months as the expected downside price move takes place. We understand this concern by many industry professionals and share some of their same concerns, yet we believe these individual are far too early in shifting their stance in the markets right now.
As you may be aware, our research does not show any major downside risks until later in July 2019 or August 2019. Even then, the price of the Dow Jones Index would have to fall over 18% before the December 2018 lows become threatened. The current upside price recovery, with the Dow Jones up over 400 pts from the lows on Monday, June 3, suggests the US market and the Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months is still rather strong with investor buying dips. We told our followers this bounce was about to happen the day before it bottomed here.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Recession Probabilities Continue to Increase: What’s Next for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market rallied above its 200 day moving average today along with Fed-related news. Today’s headlines:
- The New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model continues to increase
- Today’s spike saw relatively low volume
- Stocks spiked, but VIX didn’t fall significantly today
- 30 year – 2 year Treasury yield is steepening
- PMI and the S&P are both falling
- Zahorchak Method isn’t falling
Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Enjoy The Stock Market Bounce… In Two Weeks Things Get Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks bounced yesterday because:
1) They were oversold.
2) The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).
3) Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”
4) Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Stock Market Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger. Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance. In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs. Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted. In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again. At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows. Guess what happened? The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.
Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks. Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend. This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough. The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.
We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past. We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history. These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.
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Monday, June 03, 2019
How Foolish We All Are About China And Life / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While I will let the “real” analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment around the China deal.
This past week, I have seen many posts like this one:
“We wouldn't be down at these relatively low levels had China settled with Trump. Guaranteed.”
The posters’ logic works like this: The market has been dropping ever since the China deal fell apart. So, it is clear that the cause of the drop is the China deal debacle. And I am quite certain that almost all of you think in this exact same way. I mean it so logical, right?
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Monday, June 03, 2019
Stock Market Technical Data Points Snowballing Into The Abyss? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
Or Is This The Time To Relax Or Take Action?
There is so much to write about I could fill five pages and still receive an Incomplete. I know myself would not read five page, but here goes and will try to make it brief. IMO there is a sense of urgency snowballing since early May. The Russell 2000 broke out of a well defined base on May 3rd and I thought the final leg of our decade long Bull Market was underway through the fall. Two trading days later President Donald tweets China has reneged on several agreed upon aspects of the negotiations. The market reversed swiftly and significantly. All breakouts failed, a very bad sign and it only gets worse.
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Monday, June 03, 2019
Stock Market Correction Extends, Gold Breaking out? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. C-wave likely.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, June 02, 2019
Did the Stock Market Just Make the Mother of All Bull Traps? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P is now down -6.5% from its all-time high, after making a marginal new high vs. its September 2018. On the charts, this “looks like” a bull trap. Is it really? Today’s headlines:
- Examining the “bull trap”
- Collapsing Treasury yields, and what this means for stocks
- SKEW’s decline
- Dow has fallen 6 weeks in a row
- Copper and stocks both down 4 weeks in a row
- First monthly decline after a 4 month rally
- Emerging markets outperforming the U.S.
Friday, May 31, 2019
The Stocks Bull Market is Over… Now Comes the Bloodbath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are a sea of red this morning…
I’ve been warning for weeks that a collapse was coming… and now it is here.
The markets have finally woken up to the fact that the US and China will NOT be reaching a trade deal… and that the global economy is contracting.
Stocks have taken out critical support (red line). The next stop will be in the lower 2,700s (blue line).
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Can Markets Still Drop Sharply…or Is the Fed Invincible? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The financial markets feel as if they are totally controlled. Zerohedge recently made an observation that pretty well sums up the situation, in the context of trade: The quickest way to settle the trade war is for stock markets to drop significantly. Much lower prices will put pressure on President Trump to end the standoff.
The problem is neither the president nor the Fed have the stomach for lower prices. Investors are certain they will act quickly to prevent any major bear market.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Stocks Break Downward In Afternoon Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The afternoon price breakdown in the YM (Down Futures) continues to confirm our recent analysis. We authored a three-part research post near mid-May discussing how the global tensions would likely play out in the global stock markets. We also authored another, more recent, research post about how the US stock markets would likely find weakness as news is digested after the US Memorial Day holiday weekend. If we go far enough back in our research, we can find a very interesting research post from March 31, 2019, where our research team suggested July 2019 would be a key date for a potential market top formation.
Today, we are going to focus on the downside price rotation that is happening in the YM (Dow Futures) and how it points to an extended sideways Pennant/Flag price formation over the next few weeks before a breakdown move may cause havoc in the markets.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Stock Market Sell In May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
In this report we will look at the state of the stock market and update the condition of a potential bottom in the gold space.
Sell in May and Go Away
You have all heard this Wall Street ditty before and it is now upon us at this moment. Despite this old market rule being an established truism, few actually use it to make money. Instead the daily market action draws investors back into the market typically in search of that illusory “Summer Rally”. Instead they typically find themselves in the stock market’s “Summer Doldrums”. I can’t quote the exact statistics, however if one was to simply sell in May and stay out of the market until the typical October weakness, then go back in whole hog his returns would greatly outpace the returns of the market itself. So the sell in May phenomenon is real. Let’s try to use it to our advantage.
Time to Start Sharpening our Knives
This means it’s time to begin shorting the market… selectively that is. I have shown in the past that shorting is most profitable if one holds off until the second half of a bear market. That’s because the market starts providing decent follow through on the downside. We are not there yet since it’s still early on in phase I of the bear market, however selective shorts can be taken when a set-up presents itself. Later on in this report I will present a few short sale set-ups.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
This 1 Investment strategy could change your future - eBook inside / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Submissions
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