Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 01, 2019
Can Stock Market See an Encore Performance to Q1? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After performance results for the record books in the first quarter of 2019, the stock market is entering a very challenging period in April.
To be sure, the success and presumed benefit from a US-China Trade Deal remains a big economic and geopolitical carrot stick for the markets in the days ahead. How much of the anticipated trade deal dividend already has been discounted by the impressive Q1 gains is anyone’s guess at this point. Certainly, both the adjustment of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and the prospect of renewed growth once the trade dispute is resolved combined to support the market during Q1.
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Monday, April 01, 2019
Stock Market Is Stunned By The Bond Rally - But It Has Higher To Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
One of my members laughingly posted an article in our chatroom entitled "Riding the Bond Rally No One Saw Coming." Were you one of the many who did not see this rally coming? The point my member was trying to make was that while we were preparing for this rally since October of 2018, it seems most of the market was surprised by the rally.
Before I address how we have handled the bond market in 2018 and 2019, let me take you back through the last 3 years within the bond market.
As the bond market rallied on for decades, one analyst after another attempted to “call the top.” Yet, the bond market continued higher and higher.
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Monday, April 01, 2019
Stock Market Congestion Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 appears to be decelerating and forming a top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 31, 2019
Proprietary Cycles Predict July Stock Market Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Think of this research post as an early warning that June and July 2019 are likely to be a very critical price inflection point based on our proprietary price cycle analysis tools. Back in October 2018, we predicted the downside price rotation almost perfectly going forward 4 to 5 months. We predicted nearly every move that occurred in the US stock market all the way to and through the ultimate low that occurred on December 24, 2018. You can read that post here.
Now, our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems are predicting a June/July 2019 cycle inflection date that will likely coincide with, possibly, new market highs as well as increased bullish price activity throughout the global stock markets until we get nearer to this date. This June/July 2019 date becomes even more critical as we begin to understand our other predictive modeling systems are suggesting that precious metals will begin an upside price advance near late April or early May 2019. When we combine this analysis and start to consider the broader conclusion, it leads us to believe the global stock markets could be poised for a bit of rotation after May or June of 2019 – possibly setting up a bigger price sell-off throughout the end of 2019. Only time will tell.
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Saturday, March 30, 2019
Stock Market Eerie Calm Before the Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It’s been a terrific Q1 for stocks and bonds. Yet as the stock market and bond market rallies continue, the bearish chorus among traders and financial professionals grows louder.
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
Why it is Still Best to use an Agent for your Financial Investments / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Submissions
When it comes to investments, any one of us might be tempted to go it alone. Gone are the days when there was no other way to access the markets save through a stockbroker, and you needed to make an appointment with your bank manager in order to move your money around. Now, anyone can buy, sell, invest and manage their portfolio online, provided they have the inclination and a modicum of financial understanding.
Nevertheless, there is still much to be said for going through an agent when it comes to managing your investments. An investment agent can be broadly described as any person or body empowered to represent or act on behalf of another person or party in financial negotiations. Depending on the nature of the contract between agent and client, the agent will be authorised to perform certain services and to act in the client's interests in certain matters. Because of this, the agent cannot enter into other contracts that may create a conflict of interest.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
How Market Valuation Affects Future Stock Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
The price/earnings ratio (P/E) has a multiplier effect on stock returns. Over 10–20 years, it can dramatically increase or decrease your total return.In the secular bear market of the 1960s and ‘70s, shrinking P/E ate away almost all the return from earnings growth and dividend yield.
In the 1980s and ‘90s, rising P/E more than doubled the return for investors.
But P/E’s effect goes beyond earnings and capital gains. It has a big effect on dividend yield, too.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Are Investors Blind To The Stocks Upside Super Cycle? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the upside pricing potential of the US market could be under-estimated by global traders and investors. We’ve been pouring over the charts and data trying to substantiate our hypothesis with our proprietary price modeling systems and technical analysis systems for the past few days. Our results suggest the US stock market, in comparison to the global markets, could still be under-priced at current levels based on investor sentiment and this could be just the beginning of a super cycle rally we have seen happen one before.
Last year during the price rotation in February 2018, we hypothesized the current rotation was not the end of a 5-Wave Elliot Wave formation. We believe the January 2018 highs are potentially the end of Wave 3 which is part of a much larger Wave A upside price swing. Our research suggested that the retracements in 2010 and 2011 were not sufficient to qualify as any type of traditional Elliot Wave structure, thus the retracement in 2015 qualified as a Wave B formation. This presented an upside Wave A size of +366%, or +$89.66, on the QQQ chart. The Wave C move, from the lows of 2015 to the highs of 2018, presented an upside Wave C size of +121%, or +$102.77. Given these Wave A and C sizes, we believe the upside potential of a final Wave E (the last wave higher) in the US stock market could be at least 100% to 161% the size of the last Wave C formation.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis, USDJPY and SPX / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: ElliottWaveForecast
ZN_F has rallied throughout March so in this video blog, we will take a look at the Technical outlook for ZN_F (US 10 Year Note Futures), present Elliott wave count and also correlate it with USDJPY and $SPX to explain to readers and viewers how it could impact the Yen and $SPX.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
March Analysis Update - UK House Prices and Machine Intelligence Stocks Investing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a quick heads up on what I am currently working on. I aim to complete two further pieces of analysis before the end of March that will first be made available to Patrons who support me work.
Firstly a continuation of my UK house prices series of analysis, with my fifth piece seeing if house building says anything different to my preceding analysis that continues to paint a bullish picture for UK house prices for many years.
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Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Stock Market Crash Edition / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the 10 year – 3 month yield curve now inverted, it is time to look at the long term bearish case for stocks.
Long Term
Only 2 factors affect the stock market’s long term outlook: valuations and fundamentals (macro).
The U.S. stock market’s valuation is high. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. The financial media, financial experts and social media have been saying “U.S. stocks are expensive!” for most of the past 10 years.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Thursday's advance and continued lower ahead of the weekend. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October on Thursday. So was the Friday's sell-off a medium-term downward reversal or still just a correction?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.8-2.5% on Friday, as investors' sentiment worsened following some global economic data releases. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge traded just around 3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. But then it got close to the 2,800 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,820, marked by the recent support level. The next resistance level is at 2,850-2,860, marked by the early October local lows. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,800, marked by the recent resistance level and the daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Potentially Powerful Stock Market Headwinds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
For the past four Sundays, my technical work has been focused on the extent of the post-Christmas recovery rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) in relation to the Sep-Dec 2018 correction from the Sep 21 all-time high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
Since mid-Feb, when the SPX climbed and sustained above the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone at 2713.70 (+1% target overshoot at 2740.84), I have been refocused on the next higher 76.4% Fib resistance level at 2803.50 (+1% target overshoot at 2832). Purely from a Fibonacci perspective, the 2803.50 to 2832 zone on the SPX represented the next natural resistance zone from where the recovery rally might exhaust itself.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Stock Market Short-term Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Need more time and data to assess the market’s intermediate action.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 24, 2019
US Bonds Call “BS” on the Stock Market Ramp-A-Thon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Jerome Powell burst the Everything Bubble… and now he’s desperately trying to put it back together again.
Having generated the single largest mis-allocation of capital in history from 2008-2016 by manipulating bond yields to extraordinary lows, the Fed, lead by new Fed Chair Jerome Powell decided it’d be wise to embark on the single most aggressive tightening schedule in history.
I started warning that this would blow up in spectacular fashion as early as July-August 2018. The issue was not the Fed tightening, but the pace at which it was tightening. There was no real reason for the Fed to raise rates and engage in QT at the pace it did. Only a fool would think that doing this wasn’t going to cause some serious damage to a financial system that was more leveraged than any other time in history.
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Sunday, March 24, 2019
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market rally continues, with the S&P 500 now within 3% of its all-time highs. Meanwhile, various leading economic indicators are showing similarities to previous bull market tops.
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Stock Market Russell 2000 Leads The Way For Technical Analysts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.
Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU. Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up. This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher.
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
Every investor knows that “past performance is not indicative of future results.” Yet many embrace century-long averages as a reasonable guess for future returns.
Back in the late 1990s, we were told that the long-term average return (~10%) was a reasonable long-term assumption. Instead, the S&P 500 Index has only gained about 3% annually since 1999—just over half the historical average.
This forced Baby Boomers to work longer and harder to retire, as well as save more of their income.