Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, April 07, 2019
Falling Trade Deficit is Good for Stocks: True or False? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
A common claim from economic and stock market observers is that a rising trade deficit is injurious to the economy -- hence, bearish for stocks. On the other hand, a falling trade deficit is commonly believed to be bullish for stocks.
Sounds like common sense, but the price action of the main stock indexes often defy reason.
For example, on March 27, CNBC reported, "The U.S. trade deficit fell much more than expected in January to $51.15 billion, from a forecast $57 billion. The decline of 14.6 percent represented the sharpest drop since March 2018... ." Yet on the day the news was released, the main U.S. stock indexes closed lower.
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Saturday, April 06, 2019
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the eigth analysis in a series of videos that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering to September 2019.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
The Stock Market is Eerily Quiet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market went nowhere today and volume was extremely low. Traditional technical analysis sees low volume rallies as an ominous sign (“volume must confirm price”, “air is getting thin at the top”, etc)
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Stock Market Mixed Expectations, All Eyes on Tomorrow’s Jobs Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks slightly extended their short-term uptrend on Wednesday, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October yesterday, but it closed just 0.2% higher. So will the uptrend continue?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, slightly extending their short-term uptrend once again, as investors’ sentiment remained bullish following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2%. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 2.3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,890-2,900, marked by some early October local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,860-2,865, marked by some recent local lows. The next support level remains at 2,835-2,845, marked by the Monday’s daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Why Are The Markets Ignoring The US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019. For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events. Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.
Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over. Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb. We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found. We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets. Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Enjoy the Stocks Rally While It Lasts, But Don’t Be Fooled About What’s Coming Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Central Banks have created the single most dangerous environment possible…
That is the environment in which the economy is weakening, but investors are pouring into risk assets based on hopes that Central Banks will engage in more stimulus.
This is precisely what happened in the late ‘90s as well as in late 2007-early 2008.
Will the outcome be different this time?
In the near-term, traders will gun the market to new all-time highs. We’re too close for them not to. And until institutions start selling in droves again, we’re in a “trader’s games” market.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2019
Waiting for the Russell 2000 to Confirm The Next Big Stock Market Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the US stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation. Even though the US stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.
Monday, April 01, 2019
Can Stock Market See an Encore Performance to Q1? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After performance results for the record books in the first quarter of 2019, the stock market is entering a very challenging period in April.
To be sure, the success and presumed benefit from a US-China Trade Deal remains a big economic and geopolitical carrot stick for the markets in the days ahead. How much of the anticipated trade deal dividend already has been discounted by the impressive Q1 gains is anyone’s guess at this point. Certainly, both the adjustment of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and the prospect of renewed growth once the trade dispute is resolved combined to support the market during Q1.
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Monday, April 01, 2019
Stock Market Is Stunned By The Bond Rally - But It Has Higher To Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
One of my members laughingly posted an article in our chatroom entitled "Riding the Bond Rally No One Saw Coming." Were you one of the many who did not see this rally coming? The point my member was trying to make was that while we were preparing for this rally since October of 2018, it seems most of the market was surprised by the rally.
Before I address how we have handled the bond market in 2018 and 2019, let me take you back through the last 3 years within the bond market.
As the bond market rallied on for decades, one analyst after another attempted to “call the top.” Yet, the bond market continued higher and higher.
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Monday, April 01, 2019
Stock Market Congestion Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 appears to be decelerating and forming a top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 31, 2019
Proprietary Cycles Predict July Stock Market Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Think of this research post as an early warning that June and July 2019 are likely to be a very critical price inflection point based on our proprietary price cycle analysis tools. Back in October 2018, we predicted the downside price rotation almost perfectly going forward 4 to 5 months. We predicted nearly every move that occurred in the US stock market all the way to and through the ultimate low that occurred on December 24, 2018. You can read that post here.
Now, our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems are predicting a June/July 2019 cycle inflection date that will likely coincide with, possibly, new market highs as well as increased bullish price activity throughout the global stock markets until we get nearer to this date. This June/July 2019 date becomes even more critical as we begin to understand our other predictive modeling systems are suggesting that precious metals will begin an upside price advance near late April or early May 2019. When we combine this analysis and start to consider the broader conclusion, it leads us to believe the global stock markets could be poised for a bit of rotation after May or June of 2019 – possibly setting up a bigger price sell-off throughout the end of 2019. Only time will tell.
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Saturday, March 30, 2019
Stock Market Eerie Calm Before the Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It’s been a terrific Q1 for stocks and bonds. Yet as the stock market and bond market rallies continue, the bearish chorus among traders and financial professionals grows louder.
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
Why it is Still Best to use an Agent for your Financial Investments / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Submissions
When it comes to investments, any one of us might be tempted to go it alone. Gone are the days when there was no other way to access the markets save through a stockbroker, and you needed to make an appointment with your bank manager in order to move your money around. Now, anyone can buy, sell, invest and manage their portfolio online, provided they have the inclination and a modicum of financial understanding.
Nevertheless, there is still much to be said for going through an agent when it comes to managing your investments. An investment agent can be broadly described as any person or body empowered to represent or act on behalf of another person or party in financial negotiations. Depending on the nature of the contract between agent and client, the agent will be authorised to perform certain services and to act in the client's interests in certain matters. Because of this, the agent cannot enter into other contracts that may create a conflict of interest.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
How Market Valuation Affects Future Stock Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
The price/earnings ratio (P/E) has a multiplier effect on stock returns. Over 10–20 years, it can dramatically increase or decrease your total return.In the secular bear market of the 1960s and ‘70s, shrinking P/E ate away almost all the return from earnings growth and dividend yield.
In the 1980s and ‘90s, rising P/E more than doubled the return for investors.
But P/E’s effect goes beyond earnings and capital gains. It has a big effect on dividend yield, too.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Are Investors Blind To The Stocks Upside Super Cycle? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the upside pricing potential of the US market could be under-estimated by global traders and investors. We’ve been pouring over the charts and data trying to substantiate our hypothesis with our proprietary price modeling systems and technical analysis systems for the past few days. Our results suggest the US stock market, in comparison to the global markets, could still be under-priced at current levels based on investor sentiment and this could be just the beginning of a super cycle rally we have seen happen one before.
Last year during the price rotation in February 2018, we hypothesized the current rotation was not the end of a 5-Wave Elliot Wave formation. We believe the January 2018 highs are potentially the end of Wave 3 which is part of a much larger Wave A upside price swing. Our research suggested that the retracements in 2010 and 2011 were not sufficient to qualify as any type of traditional Elliot Wave structure, thus the retracement in 2015 qualified as a Wave B formation. This presented an upside Wave A size of +366%, or +$89.66, on the QQQ chart. The Wave C move, from the lows of 2015 to the highs of 2018, presented an upside Wave C size of +121%, or +$102.77. Given these Wave A and C sizes, we believe the upside potential of a final Wave E (the last wave higher) in the US stock market could be at least 100% to 161% the size of the last Wave C formation.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis, USDJPY and SPX / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: ElliottWaveForecast
ZN_F has rallied throughout March so in this video blog, we will take a look at the Technical outlook for ZN_F (US 10 Year Note Futures), present Elliott wave count and also correlate it with USDJPY and $SPX to explain to readers and viewers how it could impact the Yen and $SPX.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
March Analysis Update - UK House Prices and Machine Intelligence Stocks Investing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a quick heads up on what I am currently working on. I aim to complete two further pieces of analysis before the end of March that will first be made available to Patrons who support me work.
Firstly a continuation of my UK house prices series of analysis, with my fifth piece seeing if house building says anything different to my preceding analysis that continues to paint a bullish picture for UK house prices for many years.
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Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Stock Market Crash Edition / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
With the 10 year – 3 month yield curve now inverted, it is time to look at the long term bearish case for stocks.
Long Term
Only 2 factors affect the stock market’s long term outlook: valuations and fundamentals (macro).
The U.S. stock market’s valuation is high. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. The financial media, financial experts and social media have been saying “U.S. stocks are expensive!” for most of the past 10 years.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Thursday's advance and continued lower ahead of the weekend. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October on Thursday. So was the Friday's sell-off a medium-term downward reversal or still just a correction?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.8-2.5% on Friday, as investors' sentiment worsened following some global economic data releases. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge traded just around 3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. But then it got close to the 2,800 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,820, marked by the recent support level. The next resistance level is at 2,850-2,860, marked by the early October local lows. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,800, marked by the recent resistance level and the daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Potentially Powerful Stock Market Headwinds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
For the past four Sundays, my technical work has been focused on the extent of the post-Christmas recovery rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) in relation to the Sep-Dec 2018 correction from the Sep 21 all-time high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
Since mid-Feb, when the SPX climbed and sustained above the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone at 2713.70 (+1% target overshoot at 2740.84), I have been refocused on the next higher 76.4% Fib resistance level at 2803.50 (+1% target overshoot at 2832). Purely from a Fibonacci perspective, the 2803.50 to 2832 zone on the SPX represented the next natural resistance zone from where the recovery rally might exhaust itself.
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