Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US & Global markets. Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis? Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.
Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside price advance can take place. The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows. Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making. If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
Having trouble making sense of the market? Do you feel like you are living in some sort of a parallel universe where almost everything happening in the market seems to be the opposite of what you have learned should happen? You are not alone so let’s try to make some sense of it. This weekend I will present two possible outcomes for the stock market and the rational behind them. We will also look at some out of favorite stocks in a bull market.
I see myself more of a market strategist than anything else. What I have learned after actively watching the ebb and flow of markets for almost 40 years is that the simplest approach is typically the best approach for us mere mortals. Sure we may be able to score a few short term trades here and there, but the amount of effort and focus it takes makes it unrealistic to make it ones primary investment approach. It takes an investment professional to consistently make money as a trader. Those of us who work for a living are best served trying to ride a bull market and not get too wrapped up in the day to day motion of the market. But to ride a bull one must know an awful lot of things, because it takes an independent critical thinker to buy a bottom and sell somewhere near the top after a market fully expresses itself to the upside. He must be able to divorce himself from the crowd and believe in himself. He must be able to be comfortable being alone from time to time. To me the most important thing is to understand where the market is in the greater scheme of things. I say this because it is my personal approach to investment to find and be in a bull market and to avoid bear markets at all costs. My observation is that those who listen to Wall Street’s advice to be in the market at all times is suicide. Bear markets destroy investors and they ruin ones ability to ride the next bull market upward due to the psychological damage they incur.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s relentless rally continues. The S&P 500 (excluding dividends) is just 1% from a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 Total Return Index (including dividends) is already at an all-time high. While the chart may “look like” a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, these patterns are only clear with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Too many potential head-and-shoulders patterns don’t work out in real-time (i.e. false bearish signals). And by the time you wait for a “bearish confirmation” break of the neckline, the S&P is already down -20%.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Robert_Foss
Something unusual happened in the stock market recently.
A few weeks ago, a closely watched indicator, called the “yield curve,” inverted for the first time since the last recession.
This is a concrete sign the economy is slowing.
In fact, the yield curve has inverted before every recession over the past 50 years… but not immediately before, as I’ll explain in a moment.
Good news is, the yield curve inversion also means stocks should continue to rise for the next 12–18 months or so.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday’s trading session was bullish, as stocks broke above their short-term consolidation following the first quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index broke above the 2,900 level. Will the uptrend extend despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.5-1.0% on Friday, breaking above the recent trading range, as investors’ sentiment improved following the first quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Friday. It broke above the 2,900 level. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.1% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,900, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows.
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2722 is ready for a pause
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Stocks Are Going to Stage a Truly VIOLENT Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
First and foremost, volume has slowed to a trickle. Two of the last four days saw trading volume at their absolute lowest since late September 2018: right before the last market meltdown started.
This is occurring right as the S&P 500 nears the completion of the bearish rising wedge formation that has been building since the December bottom.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Without too much attention from traders, the SPY and QQQ are racing to attempt to establish new all-time highs in what may become the most exciting Spring/Summer breakout rally of the past 3 years. While many other symbols are still flirting with November/December 2018 highs, the SPY and QQQ are both showing upside price gaps last week indicating a moderately strong price advancement is taking place. Additionally, both the SPY and the QQQ are already well above early 2018 peak levels.
If you were not paying attention, it sure looks like these two symbols are racing to be the first to break into “new all-time high levels” and shock the doomsayers (again) as we may see this rally continue for at least another 30 to 60 days.
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Dow Jones Stock Index Gann Angle Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
The Dow Jones has its own manner, some stocks are fast, some stocks are slow and some are in between. No matter the powers behind the scenes Gann Angles will help the chartist with the 'Dow Jones Manner Watch'!
These charts provided by NorthmanTrader clearly showing the puppet master behind the scenes
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Friday, April 12, 2019
The Fed Created an Economy of Zombies and Unicorns / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
Central bankers have a well-worn playbook for handling recessions.
Cut interest rates, increase liquidity, and otherwise shove capital into the private sector. This helps businesses hire more workers and raise wages. Then gradually remove all the stimulus as growth recovers.
This playbook truly fell apart in 2008. The system had so much debt that adding yet more of it didn’t have the desired effect.
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
S&P 500 at 2,900 Mark, Will Stocks Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced some of their Tuesday’s decline yesterday, as they continued to fluctuate following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index traded slightly below the 2,900 mark. Will the uptrend continue despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.7% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following Tuesday’s decline. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.8% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,890-2,900, marked by some early October local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,835-2,850, marked by the previous Monday’s daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Stock Market Intra-day Fibonacci Modeling Shows Volatility Is About To Spike / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd. alerted us to a Fibonacci technical pattern that is setting up in the US stock market right now. This pattern suggests that volatility will increase dramatically over the next few days/weeks as intra-day price action suggests deeper sideways price action may continue.
One of the key benefits of our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is that it automatically learns and adjusts to price action on different intervals. So, by watching the results of this adaptive learning model on various intervals shows different types of setups and expectations, we can develop a consensus among the result to assist us in determining a likely outcome. These models are showing that volatility will increase by expanding out the Fibonacci Trigger Levels for Bullish and Bearish price action. As price begins to consolidate, the proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system adjusts internal computational measures to determine where and when the opportunity exists for trends to form. When these Fibonacci Trigger levels move away from price, it typically suggests bigger moves are about to happen and that volatility will increase.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my final video in a series of 10 that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into September 2019.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Trump’s Trade War Is Nowhere Near Over / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
If you follow daily market action, you can tell investors don’t like tariffs or other trade restrictions. Stock prices rise when it looks like US and Chinese negotiators are making progress. They fall when President Trump makes new threats or negotiations fall apart.
We’ve seen it dozens of times in the last year.
Lately, we see more celebrating. People seem to think some sort of trade war resolution is near—or at least an extension of last December’s truce.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Is This The Last Leg Higher for the DOW Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this current upside price move is nearing the end of any immediate upside potential. Yes, back in December 2018 and before, we called for an “Ultimate Low” pattern setup followed by an incredible run to new all-time highs when almost everyone else was calling for a continued downside price move. Now, that the YM/DOW is only 640 points away from reaching all-time highs again, we believe a new price peak will setup sometime near June/July 2019.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to September 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the last in a 10 part series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into September 2019. However the whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
Watch For +15% Move In Chinese Stocks / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week we had strong numbers out of China and our research continues to suggest the Chinese stock market could be poised for an upside price rally of at least 15% over the next 30+ days before possibly reaching a peak in June or July 2019. Our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting a target level of $30.50 to $31.50 (in YINN) as an immediate upside profit range.
We believe the continued pricing pressures of 2018 are easing as continued negotiations with US trade officials have everyone in high hopes for a suitable and equitable outcome. Our researchers believe the upside in the Chinese stock market could be as high as $32 to $36 in YINN before the June/July peak is reached. This would represent a +25% to +40% upside price objective from recent highs.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
Stock Market Ending Diagonal Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 appears to be decelerating and forming a top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 07, 2019
What US Economic Fundamentals Say For Stock Market Trend 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the ninth analysis in a series of videos that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering to September 2019.
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Sunday, April 07, 2019
Falling Trade Deficit is Good for Stocks: True or False? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
A common claim from economic and stock market observers is that a rising trade deficit is injurious to the economy -- hence, bearish for stocks. On the other hand, a falling trade deficit is commonly believed to be bullish for stocks.
Sounds like common sense, but the price action of the main stock indexes often defy reason.
For example, on March 27, CNBC reported, "The U.S. trade deficit fell much more than expected in January to $51.15 billion, from a forecast $57 billion. The decline of 14.6 percent represented the sharpest drop since March 2018... ." Yet on the day the news was released, the main U.S. stock indexes closed lower.
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