Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The Coming Stocks Bear Market Will Be Especially Painful for the Boomers / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: John_Mauldin

My back-of-the-napkin math says retirement accounts are at least 50% invested in equity index funds.

Some of you are now asking, “What’s the problem? All those index funds have come back. Everybody is back to where they started.”

Not so fast, Jack.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Is The Stock Market Finally Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.

The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed's balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet, the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Split Stock Market Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave?  Too early to tell!

Intermediate trend – Warning from leading indexes.  Top of B-wave possible.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, March 18, 2019

Chinese Data Has Delayed Effect on Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the previous two segments of this research post PART I, PART II, we’ve hypothesized that the recent Chinese economic data and the resulting global shift to re-evaluate risk factors within China/Asia are prompting global traders/investors to seek protective alternative investment sources.  Our primary concern is that a credit/debt economic contraction event may be on the cusp of unfolding over the next 12~24 months in China/Asia.  It appears that all of the fundamental components are in place and, unless China is able to skillfully navigate through this credit contraction event, further economic fallout may begin to affect other global markets.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my sixth video in a series to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the Stock Market Dow Stocks Index covering the period from March 2019 to September 2019.

December 2018 saw panic hit the stock market on the failure of the Santa rally to materialise, as those who had bet on such a widely anticipated rally (including myself) were forced to sell out which sent the Dow plunging below support of 23,400 to a low of 21,700. Which is a reminder that we are dealing with the FUTURE, which is UNWRITTEN. So there is always a risk that the market is not going to resolve in the anticipated direction no matter how confident one is at the time that it will.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P remains stuck at its 2810 resistance level. Meanwhile, various economic indicators are flashing warning signs but not immediately bearish signs. Towards the end of a bull market, it’s very hard to know exactly how much gas there is left in the bull market’s tank. That’s why it’s better to focus on risk-reward instead of timing exact tops and bottoms.

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Is The Brexit Debacle Going To Crash The Stock Market ... Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

We are often directed to think that the market reacts in the same manner as Newtonian physics. We believe that a news event which accompanies a market move was certainly the “cause” of that market move. But, how often have we seen markets react in the exact opposite manner in which the substance of the news event suggests?

While science has moved away from Newtonian physics, stock market analysts have not.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Deflationary Assets are Outperforming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Donald_W_Dony

During the current bull market, deflationary assets (industrials, technology, financials, communication, consumer discretionary and real estate) have greatly outperformed inflationary assets (commodities) for most of these past 10 years.

Martin Pring's Deflation/Inflation Index (Chart 1) illustrates that deflationary assets have largely outperformed inflationary assets from late 2011 to the beginning of 2016 and again from mid-2018 to the present.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ELLIOTT WAVES

Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.

Friday, March 15, 2019

Our Incredible Price Anomaly Setup in the Nasdaq Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

research team has been alerting our followers to a potentially deep price retracement setting up in the NQ and other US stock market majors.  Although the recent price activity has pushed to newer recent highs this week, as you will see in the chart below, our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system is suggesting that a “price anomaly” has set up.

These types of price anomalies are indicative of when price moves in an extended way outside of or away from the ADL predicted price levels.  On the chart below, of NQ (NASDAQ), you’ll see the current setup with the predicted price anomaly highlighted as a RED SQUARE.  This NQ ADL price pattern consists of 13 unique previous ADL instances and suggests there is a greater than 65% likelihood the prices will fall towards the 6700 level in the NQ over the next few days.

Thursday, March 14, 2019

S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended their uptrend on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October yesterday. But will the rally continue despite some short-term technical overbought conditions?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.6-0.7% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% yesterday. The market is now close to the previous medium-term local highs following an intraday rally to the new medium-term high of 2,821.24. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 4.4% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,815-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,795-2,800, marked by the yesterday's daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the Tuesday's daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

As I now provide analysis to over 5000 subscribers between my services on Elliottwavetrader, The Market Pinball Wizard, and FATrader, I am the beneficiary of much feedback from various segments of the financial markets. In fact, since we have over 500 money manager clients, I see a lot of what the predominant thinking is on “the street.”

Of late, I have been pointing to the potential for the dollar to rise to the region of 99-100DXY and TLT to take us up towards the 131-136 region. And, it seems many on “the street” are on the wrong side of the boat on this one. In fact, when I wrote a recent article on the TLT potentially rallying quite strongly in the coming months, I experienced quite a bit of pushback in the comment section to that article.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market has gone nowhere over the past 2 weeks. This is normal because most of the time, the stock indices simply aren’t as volatile as other markets like commodities. The big news today is that “bond king” Jeff Gundlach says that the stock market is still in a bear market, and that this is just a bear market rally.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my 6th analysis in a series of 10 that concludes in a 6 month trend forecast for the stock market.

December 2018 saw panic hit the stock market on the failure of the Santa rally to materialse, as those who had bet on such a widely anticipated rally (including myself) were forced to sell out which sent the Dow plunging below support of 23,400 to a low of 21,700. Which is a reminder that we are dealing with the FUTURE, which is UNWRITTEN. So there is always a risk that the market is not going to resolve in the anticipated direction no matter how confident one is at the time that it will.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

The $TSX.CA Composite Index Cycles & Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Canada

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly, the index has rallied with other world indices trending higher into the June 2008 highs. It then corrected the bullish cycle as did most other world indices. The index ended that larger degree correction in March 2009. It is at this point where the index corrected the whole all time up bullish cycle. Thus the March 2009 lows is from where this cycle and swing analysis will begin. It appears to be a new beginning.

Secondly, from the 2009 lows the index shows a 5 swing higher sequence that favors further upside. Price has reached and exceeded the 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension of the 2009 to 2011 bullish cycle. That happened in September 2014 under the red swing count. This area was also seen in the preferred blue count the 61.8-76.4 Fibonacci extension was reached and slightly exceeded in January 2018.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

This Stock Market Pop Could Fizzle Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US stock market opened today with mixed opening prices.  The crash of the Ethiopian Boeing passenger jet prompted selling in the Blue Chips, particularly in Boeing (BA).  As of right now, the US stock markets have recovered quite well and have pushed higher.

We believe this upward rotation may be short-lived and want to highlight the two Engulfing Bearish candlestick patterns that have formed recently.  The first, near the October 2018 highs, prompted a very deep price correction that ended on December 24, 2018.  The more recent, completed just on March 8, 2019, is setting up resistance just above recent highs ($175.95) and is still a very valid sell signal for the QQQ.  Unless the price is able to breach the $175.95 level over the next few weeks, this Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern is technically the key pattern driving future expectations for the price.

Monday, March 11, 2019

Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave?  Too early to tell!

Intermediate trend – Initial rally has come to an end.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, March 11, 2019

Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It was a tough week for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P falling 5 days in a row. The S&P is finally starting to make a somewhat sizable pullback, although this pullback happened later than we expected. Most pullbacks are start at the 50% retracement level – this one started at the 78.6% level, which proves that the short term is always extremely hard to predict.

Monday, March 11, 2019

US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates: