Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold and Pointing to Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - The Dow Jones Industrials are deviating from their typical decennial pattern in an election year. Important cycles going into the Fall could be the reason for this, but one also has to consider the possibility that the downward pressure from the 120-yr cycle, which is due to make its low in 2012-2014 has begun to take effect and that October 2007 was the top of the bull market. This is not yet confirmed.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The initial phase of the intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17 at 1257. After a tentative uptrend to 1440, the index has now retraced to slightly below its March low with signs of a rally appearing.
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Monday, July 14, 2008
S&P Stock Market Index 400 Point Move! / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
What if that was the headline for this coming week, a four hundred point move in the S&P? Most likely, you'd be loading up on out of the money puts or calls , looking for the market to close at record highs or down around 800. If you haven't noticed, those looking for a sudden, dramatic collapse in stocks have been thwarted by a slow, persistent drip downward occasionally punctuated by vicious snapback rallies.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Market Forecast to Sept 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow Jones has until recently been closely following the roadmap for 2008 posted on 24th March 2008 as part of the Global Stock markets outlook, i.e. both the rally to early May to 13,136 and the subsequent downtrend to 11,700 by the end of June were virtually spot on. The analysis was confirmed in the analysis of 3rd May 08, which concluded that Sell in May and Go Away would be occur this year as transpired during the subsequent decline into the end of June as the below road map chart illustrates from the March article.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Credit Crisis Easing? Is the Stocks Bear Market End? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“In a sign of some improvement in the credit crisis, Wall Street firms for the first time didn't borrow from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program and commercial banks also scaled back.
“Investment firms didn't draw such loans for the week ending July 9. They borrowed just $1.7 billion in the previous week ending July 2, down from $6.1 billion in the week before that. Such borrowing rose as high as $38.1 billion in early April.
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Sunday, July 13, 2008
Financial Markets Reeling from Fannie & Freddie Collapse and Evitable Government Bailout / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“Finance is the art of passing money from hand to hand until it finally disappears,” said Robert W. Sarnoff. This is certainly the way it looked last week as the fall-out of the credit crisis deepened.
Markets had investors feeling dazed and confused after another roller-coaster week amid further evidence of the deteriorating health of the US financial sector and a renewed rise in oil prices. Adding to the pain, Barron's Randall Forsyth said: “Now that the bear market has officially arrived, it may stick around and gnash its teeth for a while – until it's scared away those who remain.”
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Sunday, July 13, 2008
Plunging Dollar Drives Oil to New High.. Stocks Crumble on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Near Collapse / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Richard_Gorton
The US Dollar, $USD, plunged below 72.00 to close at at 71.79 as oil rose intraday to $146 a barrel on worries that Israel may attack Iran, renewed militant activities in Nigeria and a strike in Brazil next week. Stocks fell lower on troubled mortgage GSEs, Fannie Mae, FNM and Freddie Mac, FRE. Today was an epic day a watershed day: the mortgage securitization infrastructure of the US collapsed. The two companies have lost $11 billion in recent months, and their shares have plunged to 1991 levels; they own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in mortgages, MarketWatch reports.
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Sunday, July 13, 2008
Big Trend Changes are Coming to the Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
We expect several significant changes to occur in markets over the next week or two. We cover those changes in detail in our expanded 56 page newsletter to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com , and discuss if those changes will be long-term or simply short-term.
We base our studies of markets on the premise that markets have a language, that they are telling us where they are headed next, so if we can know that language, and listen properly, we can have a huge investing advantage.
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Sunday, July 13, 2008
Stocks Technical Outlook Suggests Tradeale Rally Forming / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The conditions are ripe for a washout which would be a setup for a tradable rally.
Short Term - I use momentum indicators of price and breadth to find a short term rhythm in the market. These have all failed recently as the market has gone to rarely seen oversold levels.
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Saturday, July 12, 2008
Stocks Bear Market Classical Dow Theory Proven Correct Once Again / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
According to the founding fathers of Dow theory, which include Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea, the single most important aspect of Dow theory is the price movement above and below previous secondary high and low points. The question is, what constitutes secondary high and low points? In all honesty, this is where the art of Dow theory comes into play. But, for those who have truly studied the original writings by Dow, Hamilton and Rhea this becomes fairly obvious with study. I can assure you that no book on technical analysis covers the Dow theory in enough detail to provide the reader a complete working knowledge of Dow theory. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Nature of the Fannie Mae Bailout / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
I strongly believe that GSEs are part of the problem and no part of the solution. Government has no business promoting housing over renting and I would abolish HUD, the FHA, and end government sponsorship of the GSEs as quickly as practical. Ron Paul has advocated the same. Has anyone even bothered to look up the Mission Statement of Fannie Mae ?
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Saturday, July 12, 2008
US Housing Mortgage Market Meltdown- Say good-bye to Fannie and Freddie? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulsen told Congress Thursday that new regulatory powers are needed to insulate the national economy from damage if a big Wall Street firm collapses. Now that is an interesting proposition. We have already bailed out Bear Stearns and several other brokerage institutions in March. So is someone else in trouble already? Who could it be?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Rise in Treasury Yields Could Benefit Stocks, though Flight to Commodities Continues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Interesting that the TLT's (Lehman 20 year T-bond ETF) fell 1.4% on Friday,
which reflects a climb in 10-year T-note yields to 3.94% from 3.83% earlier
on Friday. Yet the stock indices continued to undergo waves of intense long
liquidation.
My guess: that the reversal in the TLTs -- normally an instrument that
attracts buyers during times of financial panic and flight to safety -- is
hinting that the current phase of the plunge in stocks is nearing
completion. The problem is that it could last into Monday or Tuesday, so no
sense in standing in front of this falling sword.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Decade of No Investment Returns, Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Adrian_Ash
"... Giving money to stockholders now looks like so 20th century, it's downright Victorian...!"
EVEN AFTER their dividend checks, US stock investors earned less than zero thanks to inflation in the 10 years to July 2008.
That marked the first Decade of No Returns in a quarter-century according to Richard Bernstein at Merrill Lynch. And seeing what's happened to US stocks so far in the second-half of 2008 – and given the US authorities' likely response – it won't be the last.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
Stock Market Plunges on Paulson's Weak Fannie Policy Statement / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Treasury Secretary Paulson has carried his miraculously successful strong dollar policy statements to Fannnie Mae and Freddie Mac with a Statement on Fannie, Freddie .Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. made the following comment today on news stories about "contingency planning" at Treasury:
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Friday, July 11, 2008
Trading the Stocks Cyclical Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
Earlier this week, the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) officially entered bear-market territory. As it edged past a 20% loss since its all-time high of October 2007, all debate about whether or not a bear really exists was instantly rendered irrelevant. Beyond any doubt we now sojourn in a full-on bear market!
The fearsome reputations of stock bears are well-deserved. During the legendary bear running between January 1973 and October 1974, the SPX lost a sickening 48.2% of its value. In a much more recent specimen, between March 2000 and October 2002 the SPX shed 49.1%. Cyclical bear markets often tend to cut stock prices in half by the time they fully run their courses!
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Friday, July 11, 2008
Fannie, Freddie 'Insolvent' and Lehman Brothers May be Next Bear Stearns / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $9 40.20 , up $ 13.90 and s ilver was up to $1 8. 24 , up 17 cents . Gold rose again in the New York Globex electronic market before trading sideways in trading in Asia and it has risen sharply again in early European trading to above $950 per ounce .Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 11, 2008
Fannie and Freddie Credit Implosions Are Too Big to Bail Out / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's been a wild ride for Fannie and Freddie recently. Yesterday, James Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise, said the GSEs are "well capitalized". William Poole, former Fed governor disagrees. Poole Says "Fannie, Freddie Insolvent" . Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 11, 2008
The Real Reasons the US Banking System Lost its Way / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Unlike Dorothy in " The Wizard of Oz ," the brutalized U.S. banking system will never again return to that comfortable, cozy, and cushy capital place it once happily referred to as "home." But its "Wicked Witch" was its own greed. The curtain has finally been pulled back on the machinery, and the hot air used to pump up the U.S. banking system's version of the Emerald City in the Land of Oz .
For decades, American banks operated on a simple - and nicely profitable - business model: They took in deposits and lent out money.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
Investors Should Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Stathis
Originally published on May 5, 2008 on SeekingAlphaWashington continues to manipulate economic data, as it has for several years. The past few Establishment Survey reports confirm the deception of data, as many more jobs were lost than official numbers indicate. A better gauge of economic weakness, in my opinion, is consumer and mortgage late-payment and default rates, since this data is more difficult to manipulate. This is especially true for late credit card payments.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
All Broad Equity Indices Are Down / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
There is plenty of bad business news out there, including with icons such as GE, AIG, banks of all sorts, municipal bond insurance companies and more.
Consumers are squeezed by energy, food prices, falling home prices and limitations on credit — and municipalities aren't apparently limiting their budget growth (and taxes) in line with their tax payers growth in income.
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