Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Stock Markets Can Crash When Central Bankers Clash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Gary_Dorsch
Hyper-inflation in the commodities markets is rivaling the US housing collapse and the global banking crisis, as the biggest threat to the world economy. Finance ministers from the United States, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Britain, and Russia, have expressed their alarm over the doubling of agricultural, energy, and key raw material prices from a year ago, which is pushing inflation rates around the world, to their highest in three decades. Crude oil briefly touched $140 a barrel, and the price of corn, used to make ethanol, hit $8 /bushel. Chinese steelmakers agreed to pay 96% more for Iron ore from Australian miner Rio Tinto, a five-fold increase since 2003. Steel prices have soared almost 50%, this year, as coal and iron ore prices continue to climb and global demand shows little sign of abating. Dow Chemical is raising prices on a wide range of its products by 25%, due to sharply higher energy and raw material costs.
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Thursday, June 26, 2008
Banks Balance Sheet Destruction and Repair! -Crack Up Boom Part III / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Introduction: At no time in my career have I seen greater opportunities for investors who are properly informed. The AVERAGE amount of M3 central bank money and credit creation is simply astonishing. It is clocking in at an average annual rate of 23%. Yes, that's right, 23%. Using the rule of 72, that means those money supplies in one form or another are doubling on average every 3.13 years as money does an imitation of confetti.
In actuality, it is fire hoses of hot money being used to underpin the G7 financial and banking systems. Then it is combined with emerging markets throughout the world with dollar pegs and current account surpluses sterilizing their currencies so they do not ROCKET higher against the dollar. It is a powerful cocktail of stimulus for the emerging world, and an inflationary one for us all.
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Thursday, June 26, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Market Index Threatening to Break Critical Support Level / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Kurt_Kasun
Is the Party Over?For this week, access to much of Elliott Wave International's forecasts and chart work is free. Many traders and investors boldly proclaim that technical analysis, such as that provided by Elliott Wave and others, is akin to voodoo and advise investors to stick to the fundamentals. To which I reply: ignore technical indicators at your peril. Such avoidance/arrogance (you think you are so much smarter than the market) is particularly damaging to portfolios in two instances. One, when they involve macro themes which the names in your portfolio will be unable to escape. Two, when the change in trend only occurs after a long period of time: The longer the period before trend reversal or violation, the more powerful the potential effect on your investment.
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Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Wallstreet Cheerleaders Will Eventually Face Reality / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
By: John_Browne
When listening to the typical, television-based, Wall Street cheerleader work themselves up into a bull market frenzy, one is tempted to wonder if they ever bother to compare the movie that is rolling along in their heads to the one that is occurring in the outside world. Perhaps for those living in a media bubble, the only reality that matters is the one reflected in the camera lens.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Higher Gas Prices Will Help the Chinese Economy / Stock-Markets / China Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: With all the great economic strides China has made, it is sometimes easy to forget that China is still a communist country and is controlled by the Communist Party of China.
Part of that Communist control is over prices. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) controls the prices on thousands of items: Drugs, grain, edible oils, pork, noodles, milk, eggs, cigarettes, cloth, steel, train and bus fares, cement, fertilizer, college tuition ... and fuel.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Exchange Controls Are Proposed For the United States / Stock-Markets / Government Intervention
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In a long week in which attempts to lower the oil price and talks about the $ were disappointed [G-8 meeting and the oil producer's meeting in Saudi Arabia], the threat of much higher oil prices, a weaker $ and perhaps a vicious fall in equity market in the next few months, the Joseph Lieberman the head of the Senate Banking Committeee is proposing what in effect are Exchange Control measures on commodity markets and foreign exchanges that host commodity dealing. This week we saw a glimpse of what is to be proposed and is proposing as we send this out. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
We May be Facing a Fall Stock Market Disaster / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Michael_Swanson
It has been almost ten full months now since the Fed first lowered interest rates. If you remember at first there was a lot excitement over the Fed cuts. The DOW and Nasdaq rallied to new 52-week highs a few weeks after the first rate cut in September. The rally and promise of more Fed intervention for the market made many big name commentators extremely optimistic about the market.
But just a few weeks later the market turned lower and has been stuck in a bear market ever since. The banking problems multiplied and inflation skyrocketed with oil rising almost double in price now from where it was a year ago. The rate cuts tasted good at first, but are no longer palatable.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
S&P Upside Reversal Has Power / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) fell out of its Fri-Mon sideways congestion (coil) pattern to new reaction lows at 130.20, which was right near my optimal downside target zone of 130.50, and has since pivoted to the upside for a recovery that has propelled prices back up into the congestion area (131.30-132.10). The reversal has power, and if it hurdles 132.10/25 then my work will confirm that a significant near-term low has been establish on the way to 134.50 as an initial target.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Sun Rising Over Japanese Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Scanning the globe for investment destinations can be a daunting task. When it comes to stock markets, however, relative strength analysis serves a useful purpose of highlighting under- or outperforming markets (or individual stocks) at a glance. Having perused a bunch of these charts, the Japanese situation stands out as being of particular interest.
Firstly, let's look at the long-term chart of the Nikkei 225 Average. Japan's stock market had an extended multi-year rally that started in earnest in the 70s and accelerated sharply in the 80s. The Nikkei peaked on December 29, 1989 at 38,915. During the devastating deflationary period that ensued the average dropped by a massive 80.5% to 7,607 on April 28, 2003. The Nikkei staged a recovery from 2003 until 2007 when the sub-prime fallout came into play.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
Forecasts for Stocks, Commodities and Currencies / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar until 5pm Wednesday, June 25 (GMT).
We are especially excited to share this one with you, as EWI has opened its new Financial Forecast Service delivery portal to you. The new portal combines all of EWI's world-class analysis onto one easy-to-navigate webpage. It allows you to toggle between near-, intermediate and long-term forecasts and analysis with ease, including recent archives. And, only during FreeWeek, will you get totally free access with no obligation to purchase anything.
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Monday, June 23, 2008
FTSE 100 Index and the Atlantic Stock Market Divergence / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: John_Needham
Behind the Mortgage bubble - More than one columnist has commented on the apparent divergence between the City's view of the economy and the High Street's view. Whilst the City and Threadneedle Street grapple with the onset of credit impaired securities and the heretofore unconsidered realisation that leverage cuts both ways, the High Street is largely unaware of what is coming down the track. UK and European markets are tracking about a quarter behind our cross Atlantic cousins so the path is relatively clear to see although the return to earth of the UK housing market will follow a different course to that in US. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Sentiment Deteriorates Amidst Global Stock Market Crash Warnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Sentiment deteriorated further during the past week as oil prices rebounded, more bad news in the financial sector surfaced, economic woes mounted and inflationary pressures intensified, compounding already-jittery investors' anxiety.
Status Quo's lyrics “Down down deeper and down” came to mind as global stock markets took a battering. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, for example, plunged by 3.8% over the week to below 12,000 – its lowest level since March. Commensurate with extreme bearishness, short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped to an all-time high during the week.
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Sunday, June 22, 2008
Why Emerging Markets Are So Volatile / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
We are sometimes asked why emerging markets are so much more volatile than developed markets. The answer is that, due to their relative size , money flows between them cause most of the volatility effect.
Consider a real world situation that most of us have seen — a stream emptying in to a pond and another stream at the the other end of the pond draining the overflow.
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Sunday, June 22, 2008
RBS Predicts Worldwide Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: William_Patalon_III
As rocky as the global markets have been, the worst is yet to come, the Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (ADR: RBS ) warns.
RBS analysts have warned clients to brace for a full-blown crash in the global stock-and-bond markets over the next three months as the conflicting realities of slowing growth and rising inflation paralyze the world's major central banks - causing “all the chickens [to] come home to roost,” Great Britain's Daily Telegraph newspaper reported.
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Saturday, June 21, 2008
Stock Market Oversold, Major Low Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market is oversold and there is reason to think we are at or very near the low for this downward move.
Short Term
Every one of the issues in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is below its 50 day EMA, a relatively rare event that has occurred near bottoms.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Oracle of Omaha Bets S&P 500 Stock Market Index Will Outperform Hedge Funds / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
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Warren Makes a Bet - It's All About Values
- Hedging Your Bet
- Mean Reversion of National Wealth
The Sage of Omaha made a bet that was written up in a recent Fortune magazine article. Basically, Warren Buffett bet that the S&P 500 would outperform a group of funds of hedge funds over the next ten years. A million dollars to someone's favorite charity is on the line. This week we will analyze the bet, using it as a springboard to learn about valuation and value investing. As we will see, there are times that making a bet on the S&P 500 to outperform hedge funds (or bonds or real estate or whatever asset class) makes sense and times when it doesn't.
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Friday, June 20, 2008
Global Stock Market Crash Warning and Loss of American Financial Privacy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Washington, DC - Hidden deep in Senator Christopher Dodd's 630-page Senate housing legislation is a sweeping provision that affects the privacy and operation of nearly all of America 's small businesses. The provision, which was added by the bill's managers without debate this week, would require the nation's payment systems to track, aggregate, and report information on nearly every electronic transaction to the federal government. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Economic and Geopolitical Dangers for 2008 and 2009 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Laird
Over the years, I have used gold market behavior to track economic and political trends. The overall effect was a good take on gold markets and on currencies, which was the intent from the beginning.
We have some rather ominous conclusions about the Summer and Fall of 2008. They are economic as well as geopolitical. The actual gold focus becomes more of a point of reference, as it reacts to events that seem to be readying to occur. In addition, we foresee some rather scary trends for the entire world, going into 09. We are not going to cover all of this in this article, but to give a basic overview.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
Recovery Rally for S&P 500 Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The near-term technical set-up for the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) argues in favor of an approaching recovery rally into the 135.50-136.00 area in the upcoming hours -- once the current low is established, either at 133.50 or somewhere lower. For the time being, though, I am willing to risk only 132.80 to participate in the preferred scenario.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Financial Market Forecasts for US Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar until noon Wednesday, June 25. Read full article... Read full article...