Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Global Stock Market PE Ratio's and Growth Potential- June 08 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last six months have been a turbulent time for most global stock markets. Gross overvaluation that saw the chinese stock market trading on a price earnings of more than 50 has been swiftly followed by a severe bear market that has wiped more than 50% of the stock market. At the time I warned that China is primed for a crash whilst many grasped at Nasdaq dot com bubble straws suggesting that China could run to a PE of 100 as Nasdaq had once done, it never happened. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
US Stock Markets Weakening Earnings Growth Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble … to give way to hope, fear and greed,” said Benjamin Graham (co-author with David Dodd of Security Analysis, 1934 – considered by many to be the bible of value investing). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
BIS Warns of Great Depression and Royal Bank Of Scotland Issues Stock Market Crash Alert / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold UpdateGold closed at $8 8 4 .20 in New York yesterday and was up $ 1.0 0 and silver closed at $1 7. 05, down 19 cents. Since then gold has again traded in a range between $880 and $890 in Asia n and in early European trading this morning .
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008
New Upleg for UltraShort China Stocks ETF / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares ETF (AMEX: FXP) appears to have established a near-term pullback low this morning at 76.06, and has pivoted into a new upleg that should continue the May-June advance towards a retest of the June high at 84.00. If 84.00 is hurdled and sustained, it just might unleash a very powerful follow-through that points considerably higher, into the 93.50 area, on the way to 100.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Forecasts for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the US Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have announced a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar from noon Wednesday, June 18 to noon Wednesday, June 25. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
The Real Role of Financial Market Regulators / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
By: Brady_Willett
Having watched the Financial Accounting Standard Board ( FASB ) grapple with the unexpensed stock options problem for more than 3-decades, and still forced to watch the consulting-crazed SEC settle case after case without forcing the wrongdoers to admit culpability, a strange sense of satisfaction arrived last week when the Financial Services Authority (FSA) attacked short sellers. To recap, the FSA said that since short sellers may be ganging up on companies undertaking rights issues the shorts will need to start disclosing their positions in a week. Not in a few month or years after the financial service lobby has severely watered down the original rule. Rather, if you short more than 0.25% during the rights issue process you will disclose your position starting June 20. Period.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Financial Market Bubbles- From Euphoria to Credit Collapse Revulsion / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: John_Mauldin
What does a bubble look like and how do they end? In this week's Outside the Box, James Montier of Societe Generale in London looks at not only the psychological analysis, but also at the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual. He includes a fascinating piece from Marc Faber documenting the various quotes about how well the economy was doing from 1928-32. This makes for fun, if a little sobering, reading.
To quote from his summary: "We have seen the heads of virtually all financial institutions stand up over the last few months and claim the worst is behind us. Why would anyone listen to these people? They didn't see the disaster coming, and yet somehow they are qualified to tell us it is all alright! Perhaps I am just unduly sceptical, but this reeks of a conspiracy of optimism. The recession has barely started, let alone reached its nadir. The market moves of late have all the hallmarks of a classic sucker's rally. This isn't discounting the recovery, this is denial! Far from being behind us, the worst may well still be ahead!"
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Global Stock Markets Low Expected Towards End of June / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
On April 29, I wrote a research report called "Loaming low in June for equity markets. It is time for increased caution". This article was about the expected major market trough that develops approximately every five to six months. Now that June has arrived, what has happened to the markets? After a weak rise in the first half of May, global stock markets began selling off sharply in the second half of the month. With downward pressure continuing into early June, world financial markets have dropped approximately 7% since mid-May. And with the technical low anticipated by late June, lower numbers can be expected over the next two weeks. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Emerging Markets Mega Trend Investing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The western economies led by the United States are teetering on the brink of recession, which is expected to be followed by a prolonged period of slow growth if not something worse namely stagflation.
Meanwhile the emerging economies continue to consolidate their strong growth rates, buoyed by huge trade surpluses from strong exports of consumer goods and raw commodities enabling governments to embark on huge infrastructure building projects. These economies are increasingly feeding their domestic construction and consumption booms as the developing world continues to make the mega shift to the developed world.
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Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Market Dow Theory Non-confirmation Confusion Signals CAUTION / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
Since July 2007 we have had an upside Dow theory non-confirmation, followed by a bearish primary trend change that was followed by a downside non-confirmation out of the January/March secondary lows. This was all then followed by a rally into the most recent secondary high points that carried the Transports to a new closing high on June 5, 2008 while the Industrials have lagged. As a result, another upside non-confirmation has been form. This can all be seen in the Dow theory chart below. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Stock Markets Heading for Test of March Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend -
So far, the market has followed the decennial pattern in an election year. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in the Fall could play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate correction came to an end on 3/17 at 1257. After a tentative uptrend to 1440, the index is now is in the process of testing its March low and expanding its base.
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Saturday, June 14, 2008
Stock Markets Putting in a Significant Low / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We are going into a bottom that is likely to be the final low for the decline that began last July.
Short Term - Last Wednesday's low is not likely to hold. Many indicators look like the one shown below, that is, they confirmed last Wednesday's low while they did not confirm short term lows earlier this year.
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Saturday, June 14, 2008
Consumer Price Index: Official US Inflation is Running at 10% / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The May level of 216.632 (1982-84=100) was 4.2 percent higher than in May 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Stock Markets– Bear Market Rally or Bull Market UP Turn? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Since topping out in October 2007, global stock markets have been characterized by two distinct phases: a decline through January/March this year, and then a rebound until mid-May. The predominantly weak undertone of the past few weeks has naturally again raised the question of whether the strength from January/March until three weeks ago has simply been a bear market rally, or whether it in fact was a longer-term upturn in stock markets' fortunes. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 13, 2008
Stocks Secular Bear Market New Downleg Has Begun / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Zeal_LLC
The early summer weeks of June have not been kind to the US stock markets. Across June's initial 8 trading days, the flagship S&P 500 stock index lost 4.6% of its value. This is not a trivial move for America 's biggest and best elite companies, so stock traders are starting to sweat a bit.
As usual, Wall Street is generally pretty bullish despite the recent selling. It is largely perceived as a minor pullback within a big new bull upleg, a stellar buy-the-dips opportunity. But what if this is not the case? An alternative, and far-more ominous, interpretation of this past month's weakness suggests we could really be witnessing an awakening bear .
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Mal Investments and Money Printing Equals Explosive Unpayable G7 Debt Mountains / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
The Crack up Boom series has returned due to the enormous amounts of money and credit creation required to save the G7 financial and banking systems. As I have outlined in recent letters, we are only in the second inning of a nine-inning ball game. Over 500 billion dollars will have been created out of “thin air” and it will require over a trillion to rescue the reckless bankers from their journey into the world of speculation and hedge funds in disguise. Their efforts have failed miserably and now they are paying the price of misuse of leverage. This leverage has just continued to get worse, contrary to reports about de-leveraging. Assets which used to be able to be priced as recently as last fall have now moved into the roach motels (see Tedbits Archives for August '07 at www.TraderView.com ) known as Level III assets, AKA asset value UNKNOWN. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Dow Support and Resistance Lines Update / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mick_Phoenix
In Sundays Weekly Report we looked at some charts that showed the Occasional Letter proprietary indicator in an experimental role on the hourly Dow. As this weeks targets have now been hit I thought it would be appropriate to update the charts to show you the outcome.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
NASDAQ Q's Signaling Break of 50 DMA Support / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As we speak, the Q's are pressing against their sharply rising 50 DMA (47.73), which if violated and sustained, likely will trigger additional weakness that projects prices into the 46.50 target area. HOWEVER, usually, a 4 day decline (off of the 6/05 recovery high at 50.61) will NOT be able to generate enough power to violate a sharply upward angled 50 DMA that has been gaining momentum for the past 10 weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Leadership Stocks Go Negative / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Every night, we crank our computers up as they look at every stock trading $2 or higher on every exchange.
We get a count of the Very Strong Leadership stocks and a count of the Very Weak Stocks in the Broad Market. From this data, we subtract the number of Very Weak Stocks from the number of Leadership stocks.
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
South Korean Stocks for Solid Economic Growth and Low Inflation / Stock-Markets / South Korea
By: Martin_Hutchinson
With key countries in the world economy spiraling toward recession, and even India and China panicking about domestic inflation levels, there's one country in particular that still seems to offer good value in its equities markets, thanks to an economic outlook that combines decent growth and only modest inflation.
That country is South Korea.
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