Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Why the Credit Crisis is Far From Finished / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week in Outside the Box we look at two brief essays which give us different perspective on the Continuing Crisis. The first is by Mohamed El-Erian, the co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco. His book, 'When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change', will be published by McGraw Hill in June, and it will be on my summer reading list. El-Erian argues in the thought-provoking piece from the Financial Times that the crisis is still far from finished, and that those who think we are returning to more placid times may be surprised when volatility suddenly becomes even more pervasive. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Stock Markets Buoyed by Decent Earnings and Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
With all the hand wringing about consumer confidence falling to 25+ year lows, it becomes much easier to understand IF we make the assumption that we are in a recession. Others worry about the self-fulfilling prophesy – if we believe we are in a recession, it will be so. However much of what is happening today was planted over a year ago. This too is the reason for why all the rate cuts made by the Fed have had little impact upon investors and the economy. However, the cuts will eventually have an impact – but that is not likely until later in the year. A complicating factor in today's economy is the lack of lending “interest” by banking institutions.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Institutional Index Stocks Index Suggests Weakness Ahead for Broader Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
This long term view of the Dow, Transports, and Institutional Index
tells you where the market is now.
Bull and Bear markets have one thing in common ... Bull markets move up in a long term up channel, and Bear markets move down in a long term down channel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Hyperinflation- The High Road To Hell / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Captain_Hook
If that's where we are going, which appears to be the case depending on your perspective, we might as well take the high road (meaning via hyperinflation), as at least this way our feet are more likely to stay dry during the trip. Isn't this a much better rationale to justify why we humans are in such a hurry to use up the non-renewable resources that are key to our survival? Moreover, isn't it a better way of accounting for why central planners are allowed to debase our currencies / economies than simple greed and ignorance, because even at a slower pace, the oil will be gone soon enough anyway. Here, the assumption is our population bubble is function of easily accessible liquid crude oil, and that once supplies become increasingly strained (as in Peak Oil ), so will our survival. Naturally, most people, who have what they would term an ‘optimistic view' of the future, shun such thinking, dismissing it as pessimism entertained by the ‘lunatic fringe'. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Stock Market Update: Survival of the Unbiased Trader / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
I'm sure a few heads were turned when I first posted the chart above, which suggests the S&P could rally to 1430 before finally deciding whether this is a bull or bear market. What makes this chart great is it underscores the nature of unbiased trading: no matter what your personal convictions are, or your interpretation of economic data, the market has not decided bull or bear and neither has the unbiased trader.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
US Federal Budget Deficit Doubles as Fed Walks a Tightrope Against Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Do we have food shortages? Rice prices hit record highs in Thailand and in electronic trading of Chicago Board of Trade futures during Asian trading hours. This week's 5 percent jump in Thailand rice takes prices to $1,000 a ton, nearly triple their level at the start of the year, intensifying fears of social unrest in Asia . Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Worst of the Credit Crisis May be over as Investors Switch from Bonds to Equities on Inflation Concerns- Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial Times: Treasury market mood swings
“The vanguard of US monetary policy, the Treasury bond market, is calling time on further interest rate cuts after next week.
“While many economists expect the US Federal Reserve to continue to cut the benchmark Fed funds rate to 1.5% from the current 2.25%, recent shifts in the interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury bond yield suggest another course.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Worst of the Credit Crisis May be over as Investors Switch from Bonds to Equities on Inflation Concerns - Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The last week was characterized by investors increasingly taking the view that the worst of the credit crisis was over. They seemed to be shrugging off further substantiation of the dreadful state of the US housing situation, as they digested the latest round of quarterly earnings reports. The latter ranged from plunging profits from Bank of America (ANC) to a dreadful report from Ambac (ABC) to guidance from Microsoft (MSFT) that failed to live up to investors' expectations.
Stock markets see-sawed as investors assimilated the various economic and earnings reports, with the S&P 500 Index eventually eking out a positive return of 0.5% for the week, thereby consolidating the previous week's gains (+4.3%).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
US Stock Markets Developing Bullish Pattern / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: The market has been in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows for over a month now.
Short Term
The chart below covers the past 100 trading days showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and an indicator showing the percentage of the last 3 trading days that the NASDAQ AD line (OTC ADL) was up in brown. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month; the vertical line is red on the 1st trading day of the year. The indicator touches the top of the chart when there have been 3 consecutive up days and it touches the bottom of the screen when there have been 3 consecutive down days. OTC ADL (not shown) is a running total of NASDAQ declining issues subtracted from NASDAQ advancing issues.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Powerful Stocks Bull Market As US Hyper Power Prepares for Global Hegemony / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clive_Maund
Back in the late 20th century there were predictions that the 21st century would be characterized by “resource wars” where fighting breaks out between countries and aligned groups of countries, as they scramble to secure increasingly scarce commodities for themselves, principally oil and water. Barely had we entered the new century when a major resource war began, with the big surprise being that it was not some banana republic suddenly deciding to invade and loot its neighbor's territory, but instead the most powerful country on earth muscling its way around an entire region on the other side of the planet in order to position itself to plunder its oil resources en masse for itself. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 26, 2008
How to Survive a Recession and Make Profits / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite frantic efforts by the US Government and central bank to avoid a recession during a Presidential election year, the US is heading for a protracted recessionary period that is expected to be worse than the last two recessions as the credit crisis and housing bust continue.
The focus for investors now should be to realise that what worked during the 2003 to 2007 stocks bull market is expected to and actually is unraveling as the boom sectors such as financial's are in a bear market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Looking for Russell 2000 Index Breakout to Kick In / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
know what some of you must be thinking: why am I wasting my time in the IWM? Aside from the fact that I really like the upside potential of its 4 month base-like pattern, I also think that if Fed stimulus is going to "kick in" during Q3 and Q4, and if the narrowing of some of the credit spreads recently is any indication that fears of market risk are subsiding, then the small cap sector will benefit, although it has been lagging a bit.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Chinese Government Intervention Sends Shanghai Stocks Soaring / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Jason_Simpkins
Stock prices soared in China yesterday (Thursday) after the government announced Wednesday night that a tax on stock trades would be reduced. Beijing's decision to lower the trade tax from 0.3% to 0.1% was motivated by a steep drop in many mainland indices over the past six months.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 25, 2008
Why Utilities Stocks Beat Treasury Bonds / Stock-Markets / US Utilities
By: Money_and_Markets
Nilus Mattive writes:I recently read an article on Forbes' website that attempted to help income investors compare the merits of utility stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds.
On the bad news side, the column noted that the yields on both utility shares and 10-year Treasuries are down about 50% since the beginning of 1995. Ouch!
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Stock Market on Route to Recovery / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Clif_Droke
By now it should be abundantly clear to even the most recalcitrant pessimists that the stock market is well along its route to recovery. The internal momentum structure hasn't looked this promising in weeks if not months. When it comes to evaluating the stock market's potential, internal momentum always precedes future price momentum and takes precedence over nearly every other consideration. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Retail Stocks ETF Punches Through Resistance / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This is what I wrote for subscribers yesterday about the Retail HLDRs ETF (AMEX: RTH), and there is no change in my outlook right now: The RTH appears to me to have ratcheted up into a higher trading plateau between 93.00 and 96.00 from 92.00 to 96.00, as the price structure pushes towards a confrontation with a cluster of resistance that is represented by its 9-month down trendline, the declining 200-day moving average, and a 5-month plateau of prior failed rally peaks at 96.00/65.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Nasdaq Q's Look Poised to Reach Next Upside Target / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
All of the action from Monday's high in the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) at 47.08 appears to be carving out some sort of rest-digestion pattern that exhibits a double-peak at 47.08-47.06 juxtaposed against a series of higher lows off of yesterday's low at 45.93. Based on the developing near-term pattern, the Q's remain above 46.50 into the closing bell, and either thrust towards my next optimal target within the final 40 minutes of trading or in reaction to AAPL earnings in the aftermarket.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Buy China Stocks Instead of ETF's on the Stock Market Dips / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: When it comes to China, the media has been focused on the riots in Tibet and the protests following the Olympic torch around the globe.
For emerging market investors, getting swept away by newspaper headlines is a huge, not to mention costly, mistake.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Russell 2000 To Test Support and then Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Thus far, the iShares Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (AMEX: IWM) has retraced 62% of its prior upmove from 68.16 to 72.27 and although the intensity of the sell-off is pressing the hourly RSI into oversold territory, my sense from the way the pattern is unfolding is that the IWM will test the March-April support line, now in the vicinity of 69.40/35 -- prior to my expectation of a potent upside pivot reversal that initiates a new upleg.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Japanese Yen Vs US Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade
By: Black_Swan
We can say with confidence that we anticipated the recent weakness of the Japanese yen. But at current levels, it makes sense to reevaluate the situation.Read full article... Read full article...