Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Stock Market Presidential Cycle Calls for Strong Bull Run into US Election / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in the process of ending and may already have ended.
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Monday, April 07, 2008
Stock Market Update: Gotta Have Faith / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
In typical fashion, the week closed at a crucial area that will determine whether there's still one more new high in this rally or it's now time for consolidation, leaving the decision to next week. Still, we have the ultimate resistance level for this move and the numbers below that will trigger a more serious correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Contracting US Economy to Hit Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
A sense of relative calm descended upon financial markets over the past week. Although fears about the outlook for the US economy persisted, a perception crept into markets that much of the bad news related to the credit crisis was now out in the open, with the result that the equity bulls had reason to feel rather pleased with their performance by the close of the week.
In his testimony on the economic outlook on Wednesday Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee he thought the US economy would not grow much, if at all, and could even contract slightly in the first half of 2008. Market participants took Bernanke's testimony in their stride, cognizant that he was not telling them anything they had not already feared.
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Sunday, April 06, 2008
The Real Reasons for the Credit Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Clif_Droke
I've purposely kept my comments concerning the credit crisis at a minimum since it began dominating the daily news headline. My reasoning for this is because I knew the crisis was overblown and overstated in the press and that there had to be a very good reason for it. The only problem is I didn't know exactly what the reason was.
Time tells all, however, and I knew that sooner or later the truth must out!
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Sunday, April 06, 2008
Stock Market Dow Theory Positive Developments But no Buy Signal / Stock-Markets / Dow Theory
By: Tim_Wood
In today's update I want to look at the market from a couple of different perspectives. Recently, I have heard it said that the Dow Theory is now giving a “Buy Signal.” This is not exactly true. In order to explain where we are from a Dow Theory perspective, I first have to explain where we have been. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Investment Perspective- What to do in a Tough Investment Climate? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Brian_Bloom
When the going gets tough, the tough get going. From an investment perspective, times are getting tougher; so what do we do?
Well, “step 1” is to straighten out our thinking so that we can face the future with clear heads. There are times when an investor's orientation should be to increase his/her wealth; and there are times when that orientation is more appropriately focussed on preserving what you have. In this analyst's view, we are now facing a time when stock market investor orientation should be defensive.
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Sunday, April 06, 2008
Stocks Bull Market on the Back of Rapid Money Supply Growth / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Money supply is growing at the fastest rate in years.
Short Term The market is over bought; many of the indicators are at or near extremes.
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Saturday, April 05, 2008
Is Our Financial System Out Of Control? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The financial crisis that started in 2007 had its genesis in the deregulation of the financial markets. This began in the mid-90s when Travelers Insurance Company bought Citibank, forming Citigroup, thumbing its nose at the Glass-Steagall Act , which separated Commercial banks from owning other financial institutions. This led to its repeal by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that implied that Citigroup would not be held accountable for flaunting the law. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Market Manipulation on Hedge Funds Margin Calls to Trigger Distressed Selling / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
- If the Rules are Inconvenient, Change the Rules
- Let's Re-arrange the Deck Chairs
- Regulations Coming to a Hedge Fund Near You
- More Fun in the Unemployment Numbers
- A Muddle Through Recession
- How Much do we Borrow for a $1 growth in GDP?
There is so much that is happening each and every day as the Continuing Crisis moves slowly into month 8, so much news to follow, so many details that need to be followed up that it can get a little overwhelming. Where to begin? Maybe with a "minor" change of the rules on how we value assets, then a look at the proposed changes in regulations, some comments to my hedge fund friends, a quick look at the employment and ISM numbers which are clearly showing we are in a recession and then finish up with some thoughts as to what it all means. There is a lot of ground to cover, so we will jump right in without a "but first" today.
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Friday, April 04, 2008
US Government Assault on the Free Markets / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Peter_Schiff
Those blindsided by the recent financial meltdown are now loudly blaming the free market for its failure to police its own excesses, and are calling for greater regulation to prevent future disasters. But for those who clearly observed the problems developing (in high definition slow motion) the blame can be directed squarely at the policies of the Greenspan/Bernanke Federal Reserve. As has been the case countless times in history, the free market will now pay the price for government incompetence. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 04, 2008
Worst of Credit Crisis Over? Watch the Stock/ Bond Ratio / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Is the worst of the credit crisis behind us? Some of my perma-bear friends will probably think of hospitalizing me for merely raising the question. The short answer, however, is that nobody actually knows. Sure, one can deliberate the fallout of the subprime saga to the nth degree, but even a crystal ball regarding the economic variables doesn't necessarily mean getting the markets right. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Minor Pullback in Nasdaq Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) appear to have finished a minor pullback off of yesterday's high at 46.01 into today's low at 45.14 and have turned up sharply after absorbing and/or shaking off the negative news about jobless claims. The fact that prices have turned up sharply AHEAD of tomorrow's Employment Report is very interesting -- and dare I suggest provocatively bullish action.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Stock Market Trends April 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Hans_Wagner
To make money and beat the market it is important to follow the trend. When you follow the trend the market's underlying forces work for you. Simply said, but how do you identify the trend so you can follow it?
I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
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Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Credit Crisis Trend Exhaustion- Supermarket Tabloids to the Rescue! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Clif_Droke
A sure sign that a trend has exhausted itself is when news tabloids start printing stories about economic depression and forecasting stock market crashes.
I can vividly recall some of the U.S. supermarket tabloids that were forecasting a second Great Depression in the wake of the 1998 stock market debacle. The '98 sell-off, which was catalyzed by the Asian currency crisis and the LTCM meltdown, saw the S&P decline some 20% from July-October of '98. About the time that bearish tabloid stories hit the news stands, the stock market had bottomed and was on its way to new highs while the super-charged U.S. economy regained its strength and was running on all cylinders.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Why Government Rescues Don't Work / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Tustain
"...Just like natural organisms, the financial system must have death to evolve into a better form..."
NOW THAT HE'S wearing some sort of do-good government hat, even Hank Paulson is not thinking straight.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Make it a Margin Call: The Change to Fix the Risk / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Petillo
It would probably be best to talk about what we know. Getting those headlines out of the way will, without a doubt, give us some insight into where we are headed. At least in theory.
Bear Stearns avoided bankruptcy when JP Morgan, who seized a unique opportunity to pick apart the firm for its brokerage business and clearinghouse operations at a price” that, despite being revised upwards from $2 to $10, left most folks inside Wall Street speechless.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
How to Fix the Credit Markets / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week we will look at what will be a fairly controversial essay by good friend Michael Lewitt of HCM. In light of today's speech by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of the re-organization of the regulatory system in the US, Michael suggest we look at what the real problems are before we begin the process of re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. For many, some of what he says will be considered economic heresy. I do not agree with all of it (though I am in solid agreement on most of it), and look forward to talking with him in a few weeks in La Jolla when we are together. But the point of Outside the Box is not to find material that I or you agree with or that makes us comfortable, but something which causes us to think through our own opinions and biases. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Investment Flash: Beware of Money Substitutes / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Lamont
The panic we suggested would occur in our report last month has enveloped the credit markets .
“When the house of (credit) cards begins to fall in on itself, the trend turns from inflation to deflation . That's when creditors turn their focus from lending to collecting and debtors turn their focus from borrowing to repaying. But by this time there are too many IOUs, and debtors cannot service them, much less repay them. Falling asset values and economic contraction thwart efforts to honor the loans. Debtors begin to default. When that happens, the game is up.” – Bob Prechter, Elliot Wave Theorist
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Monday, March 31, 2008
The Bernanke Politburo's Next Big Plan / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
" Instead of just propping up bankrupt banks, the governments should be democratising them - mobilising their assets to stimulate the productive economy, repairing infrastructure, researching and developing new markets, and refitting western economies to combat climate change. " Iain MacWhirter, "The Red Menace"
The Federal Reserve is presently considering an emergency operation that is so risky it could send the dollar slip-sliding over the cliff. The story appeared in the Financial Times earlier this week and claimed that the Fed was examining the feasibility of buying back hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with public money to restore investor confidence and clear the struggling banks' balance sheets.
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Monday, March 31, 2008
Judgment Day for Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
In the first days after the Fed's history-breaking Bear Stearns bailout, a parade of Wall Street pundits preached the theory that ...
"The worst of the crisis is behind us" ...
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