Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Stein's Law- Mean Reversion Results in US Wealth Contraction / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at a remarkable and important essay by my friend Dr. Woody Brock who is one of my favorite "Outside the Box thinking" economists. I seriously look forward to Woody's quarterly insights and devour them as soon as the come in.
I especially urge you to read and re-read the first few paragraphs, and then think about what mean reversion will mean to US wealth growth, and to the developed world in general. This is a very important concept, and basic to economics, but one that has not had enough attention drawn to it. Coupled with high valuations, the headwinds facing traditional investments are getting stronger.
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Stock Market Update: Make or Break Time / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Dominick
Not only did Friday's inexorable drip lower invalidate several bullish charts that would have seen an extension of the April rally, it also crushed positive sentiment on the Street and reiterated the prevailing wisdom of a bear market. But as we now enter the mine field of earnings season next week, TTC members have covered their shorts as our indications suggest the market has reached a crucial potential support level that will prove to be make or break early next week. Besides, we can always get back on Sunday night when we actually start our week.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Short-term Stock Market Trend Remains Up / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: Last weeks sell off was not accompanied by increased volume of issues moving downward.
Short Term The chart below covers the past 9 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 5% trend of NASDAQ downside volume (OTC DV) in black. OTC DV has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing OTC DV moves the indicator downward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month; the line is red on the 1st trading day of the year.
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
Credit Crisis Spreads Beyond Banks Hitting Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Is the consumer “all done in?” - ( Bloomberg ) The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 63.2 this month, the weakest level since 1982, when the jobless rate approached 11 percent, the worst since the Great Depression. In other figures released today, the Labor Department reported that the cost of imported goods climbed 14.8 percent in March from a year ago, led by oil.
``The consumer's feeling increasingly hemmed in,'' said Brian Bethune , director of financial economics at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington , Massachusetts . ``They've got higher energy bills, higher gasoline bills, higher food bills and obviously the employment markets are nowhere near as strong as they were.''
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
Stock Market Valuation and Reversion to the Mean / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
Market Cycle Math - Where Are We Today?
- Analyze and Strategize
Are we in a bull, a bear, or a cowardly lion market? As we will see, the answer can make a huge difference in your investment portfolio. This week I am at my Strategic Investment conference in La Jolla. About four times a year I take a break from writing the letter and bring in a guest writer. This week Thoughts from the Frontline will have the very distinguished analyst and author Vitaliy Katsenelson.
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Thursday, April 10, 2008
Buy Chinese Stocks Like Crazy! / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: If you're serious about making some money and you haven't already acted on my recent suggestions to buy the heck out of China, then I urge you not to waste another minute.
Look, five years ago the Shanghai stock market was flat on its back. The Shanghai Composite 300 Index was trading at the 1,300 level, and I dedicated one of my Asia trips to China. I wanted to be on the front lines to see what was going on ... and the economy I saw was on fire.
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Thursday, April 10, 2008
Bottom for the Banking and Financial Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors who regularly beat the market are always careful not to jump into a sector to early. In the last few weeks there has been unprecedented action in the financial markets as several banks have received infusions of capital to help them cover their significant credit losses. Last month the Fed lowered the Fed Funds and Discount rate, increasing the slope of the yield curve which should help banks. They also opened its lending window to investment banks giving them a new, stable source of funding. Then the regulators allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to boost their investments in U.S. mortgages by $200 billion, trying to give the mortgage market a boost. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Who Will Bail Out the US FED? / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Whoever believes that the most recent Fed/JP Morgan heist to acquire Bear Stearns, along with other simultaneous and preceding Fed actions, were ”successful” had better check again.
The current crisis is so severe, and it has already forced the Fed to reach into its own balance sheet grab-bag so deeply, that a very legitimate question arises, and the question is this: when the Fed ploughs all the way through its own balance sheet and gets to the bottom of the barrel, who will bail it out?
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Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Relatively Subdued Pullback for Russell 2000 ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
So far despite what feels like a broad-based sell-off, in the lager scheme of things the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (AMEX: IWM) actually has experienced a relatively subdued pullback off of last Friday's high at 71.90 (2.3%), which my work argues is a high-level congestion area atop the March-Aril advance prior to another thrust to the upside. At this juncture, only a sustained breach of key near-term support at 70.30/00 will begin to compromise the developing pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Bernanke Joins G7 to Stem Global Financial Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
In a recent interview with the New York Times, former Secretary of the Treasury Paul O' Neill, was asked how the problems with subprime mortgages could lead to a financial crisis of global proportions. O' Neill said, “If you have 10 bottles of water, and one bottle has poison in it, and you don't know which one, you probably won't drink out of any of the 10 bottles; that's basically what we've got here.” Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
US Fed Prepares for More Bank Failures In Wake of Housing Market Collapse / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
It seems that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is getting ready for more financial institutions to fail as world credit markets convulse in the wake of the US housing collapse and a flight from SIVs... structured investment vehicles which are highly leveraged, complicated, based on assumptions now proven to be plain wrong, and now considered “toxic”.
“The FDIC is looking to bring back 25 retirees from its division of resolutions and receiverships.
Many of these agency veterans likely worked for the FDIC during the late 1980's and early 1990's, when more than 1,000 financial institutions failed amid the savings-and-loan crisis.‘Regulators are bracing for well over 100 bank failures in the next 12 to 24 months'...” Damian Paletta, Feb.27, 2008 Wall Street Journal .
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Looking to be Long the Russell 2000 Stock Market ETF / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
During the past three months, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (AMEX: IWM) has carved out an impressive base-like pattern in the aftermath of its 25% correction (bear phase?) off of the July 2007 high at 85.74. Although the 72.00 area represents serious resistance, the size of the base pattern is just about as large as the size of the Aug-Nov top pattern that triggered the powerful decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Watch the Stock/bond Ratio– Poll Results / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
I posted an article on the stock/bond ratio a few days ago, discussing the likelihood of the period of safe-haven buying of bonds coming to a close and the underperformance of stocks since the middle of last year being in the process of reversing. In essence, the post asked whether we were seeing a turning point of any importance in the stock/bond ratio.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Commodity-based Emerging Markets Continue to Strut over S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
With the declining U.S. dollar and the steady growth of natural resource prices, many commodity-based world markets are feeling considerable buoyancy during this current bear market.
As the secular commodities bull market continues, its affects can be felt even during the global bear market. Many natural resource world economies are not feeling the same downdraft that has gripped the more blue chip and financial-based indexes.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Stock Markets to be Hit by Sharp Fall in Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
For the last few months in my regular letter I have been pounding the table that corporate earnings are going to decline this year, which is always a negative atmosphere for stocks. Since today is the beginning of the earnings season for the first quarter, I thought it would be helpful to look at this piece from our old friend James Montier, head of equity research at Societe Generale based in London. It seems that analysts are behind the curve when it comes to predicting future earnings. James shows us why and then goes on to demonstrate that even the meager earnings reductions that are projected are not priced into the market as many bullish commentators suggest. This should make for an interesting Outside the Box. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
Fed Bailouts vs. the Free Markets / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: The Wall Street Journal 's website — once again — pretty much summed up the current state of the housing and mortgage markets this week.
One key headline: "Fannie Mae Tightens Rules for Mortgages"
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Monday, April 07, 2008
The Federal Reserve Playing a Dangerous Game / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Dr_Martenson
Be careful what you believe - television ad for Morgan Stanley's brokerage service flickers across the screen, showing a retired couple walking across a beach with a dog and their grandchildren. Smiles and ease and comfort drip off the screen. It is a happy, shiny future they are selling. Separately, a letter goes out from Morgan Stanley to their private clients warning of a “50% chance of a systemic crisis." Which do you believe?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
Banking Crisis- You Can Fool Some Of The People Sometimes / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Captain_Hook
But you can't fool all the people all the time. This is a truism that will become increasing trite in coming years as more and more people discover the vulgarities being perpetuated on them by the banking / investment community. As an example of this, without solicitation last week Visa informed me I will soon be receiving my ‘First Class Travel Infinite Card', which apparently has ‘no credit limit'. Now for some this might be ‘good news' if planning to live increasingly off credit. But for me, the message I got was the credit givers want people who pay their bills on time to take on even more of the credit growth burden until they too are overextended, which is the brand of thinking that has gotten us into the precarious position we are in today. In this respect credit givers should know they are barking up the wrong tree with people like me if they expect a run-up in balances that can be taxed at exorbitant rates, as most like minded people pay their balances off each month and don't plan on altering this practice. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
Credit Crunch To Spill Over The World / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Regent_Markets
Despite slew of negative headlines, stock markets around the world still managed to close the week up around 4%. The FTSE and CAC managed 4.7% and 5.4% gains while the Nasdaq 100 was the pick of the US markets, closing the week up 5.2%. The rally was sparked by Lehman Brothers announcing the sale billion of dollars worth of shares late on Monday night.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
Stock Market Presidential Cycle Calls for Strong Bull Run into US Election / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - an extended intermediate-term consolidation is in the process of ending and may already have ended.
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