Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to rise while HYG barely closed where it opened – that‘s not really risk-on. Cyclicals, and riskier parts of tech weren‘t visibly outperforming – the S&P 500 rally felt like a defensive bounce off some oversold levels.
That‘s why it won‘t likely hold for long – I don‘t think we have seen the end of selling – more downside awaits. It‘s still correction time, even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150 – we‘re still in a bull market, and Big Tech would do well. For now though, rising yields are putting pressure – and they would continue to rise. As liquidity would no longer be added by the Fed by Mar, the question remains how much would funds coming out of the repo facilities and the overnight account at the Fed (think $2t basically) offset the intended tightening.
Commodities aren‘t at all shaken, and Wednesday‘s positive copper move doesn‘t look to be an outlier – unlike Friday‘s decline that didn‘t correspond with other base metals. Even though it might be soothing to the pension funds, inflation rates aren‘t likely to come down to the usual massaged 2% during the next 2-3 years, no matter whether the Fed hikes by 0.25% 6 or 8 times. The persistently and unpleasantly 4-5% high CPI is likely to break the mainstream narrative, and stay with us for much longer than generally anticipated, which is only part of the reason why I am looking for gold to leave $1,870s very convincingly in the dust this year.
Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
2022 has gotten off to a great start with many of the target AI tech giants having taken a early year tumble to fresh swing lows that is failing to register in the general indices such as the Dow, and which acts as an harbinger of what to expect during a volatile 2022, whilst my stock market trend forecast will seek to map out the trend for Dow into the end of the year. However my primary focus is on accumulating AI tech stocks and thus my analysis also includes individual price targets for each of the AI tech stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Those that read my analysis regularly know that I do not take general market fundamentals or news into account when I analyze the stock market. The main reason is that I view that which drives fundamentals as being the same as that which drives market price. However, the effects of that driver are seen in the stock market much faster than in the market fundamentals. That is why most people have adopted the adage that the stock market is a “leading indicator” for the economy. Yet, they do not understand why that is the case.
While I am not going to discuss why that is the case in this article, I am going to refer you to a previous article I have written, which explains the “why:”
How To Analyze Market Sentiment Along With Market Fundamentals
Interestingly, there are many who take serious umbrage with my perspective, to the point that they are personally insulted. I want to assure you that my perspective has been derived from many years of experience and research. So, it is not meant as a personal affront to any of you who read my articles. I am just trying to open your mind to something that is completely foreign to most investors.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 16, 2022
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just over a week ago EV stock Rivian IPO' d, a stock that virtually delivers nothing in terms of revenues is now valued at $110 billion! The company so far has delivered about 200 cars and their expectations are to deliver about 55,000 cars by the end of 2023.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 16, 2022
All Market Eyes on Copper / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? Oh, and perhaps also balance sheet reduction through not reinvesting proceeds from matured bonds and notes as talked on Monday – sure, that will do the trick.
Looking at Treasuries over the prior two days shows that the Fed isn‘t being questioned. Value defends the high ground while tech rallies – Monday‘s fear with its brief return Tuesday, is in the rear-view mirror, compacency returning, and VIX again below 18. Prior upswing consolidation right next, is the most likely action for S&P 500.
The real gains though are being made elsewhere – in crude oil and copper. With commodities back on fire, these two have certainly greater appreciation potential next than stocks or cryptos – so, long live our open longs there!
Sunday, January 16, 2022
A Stock Market Top for the Ages / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
In late 2021, Elliott Wave International Founder and President Robert Prechter gave a rare, live presentation -- "A Stock Market Top for the Ages" -- at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. The recording comprises Prechter's December 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 11, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
With the market breaking the support I noted last week, it has sent a warning shot across the bow of the bulls. But, before I discuss my market view, I want to first address something that you are all thinking: The Fed caused the decline this past week.
Well, before you go off so certain in your theory, consider that when the Fed had the actual meeting a few weeks ago and announced that it was going to tighten, the market rallied 140 points off its low that day. Yes, the market rallied on the tightening announcement. And, when the market dropped when the Fed minutes to that same meeting came out, you want me to accept that the Fed “caused” the drop?
I have said it many times and I will say it again: While a news event can be a catalyst to a market move, the substance of that news is not going to provide you with an indication for the direction of the move. Here we have a clear instance where the market received the same message regarding the Fed’s tightening two weeks apart. One instance saw the market move up strongly by 140 points, and the other saw the market move down by 110 points.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 10, 2022
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Michael_Pento
According to Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange recently hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them occurring in December 1999.How did we get back to the precipice of the year 2000, where tech stocks plunged 80% and the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value over the ensuing two years? Well, start off with the fact that the amount of new money created by our central bank in the past 14 years is $8 trillion. That, by the way, is an increase in base money supply only and does not include all of the new money created by our debt-based monetary system. So, from 1913 to 2008, the Fed created $800 billion. And, it took from 2008 until today—just 14 years--for it to have created $8.8 trillion in base money supply. Is there really any wonder why inflation has now become a salient issue, especially for the middle and lower classes, and why the stock market is now set up for a meltdown similar to the NASDAQ collapse of two decades ago?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 07, 2022
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I started this article by highlighting how difficult some 2021 strategies seemed for many Hedge Funds and Professional Traders. It appears the extreme market volatility throughout 2021 took a toll on many systems and strategies. I wouldn’t be surprised to see various sector ETFs and Sector Mutual Funds up 15% to 20% or more for 2021 while various Hedge Funds struggle with annual returns between 7% and -5% for 2021.
After many years in this industry and having built many of my own strategies over the past decade, I’ve learned one very important facet of trading strategy development – expect the unexpected. A friend always told me to “focus on failure” when we developed strategies together. His approach to strategy design was “you develop it do too well in certain types of market trends and volatility. By focusing on where it fails, you’ll learn more about the potential draw-downs and risks of a strategy than ignoring these points of failure”. I tend to agree with him.
In the first part of this research article, the other concept I started discussing was how traders/investors might consider moving away from strategies that struggled in 2022. What if the markets continue trending with extreme volatility throughout 2022 and into 2023? Suppose your system or strategy has taken some losses in 2022, and you have not stopped to consider volatility or other system boundaries as a potential issue. In that case, you may be looking forward to a very difficult 12 to 14+ months of trading in 2022 and 2023.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 07, 2022
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? – Part I
Many traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater’s 2021 results were saved by December’s +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are going to have a tough end-of-year return for 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 06, 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
The Asian-Pacific markets have led global stocks higher since April 2020 -- and they are still MOVING.
Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead. Wondering what they’re showing for 2022?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 05, 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of stabization and rebalancing just ahead. I‘m not looking for an overly sharp move, even if the very good non-farm employment change of 807K vs. 405K expected could have facilitated one. Friday though is the day of the key figure release – till then a continued bullish positioning where every S&P 500 dip is being bought, would be most welcome.
The same goes for high yield corporate bonds not standing in the way, and for credit markets to reverse yesterday‘s risk-off slant. Likewise the compressed yield curve could provide more relief by building on last few days‘ upswings in the 10- to 2-year Treasury ratio. VIX has been repelled above 17 again, and keeps looking ready to meander near its recent values‘ lower end.
Wednesday, January 05, 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The S&P 500 retraced its late last week’s declines yesterday and it went closer to the 4,800 level again. Will it reach the new record high today?
The broad stock market index gained 0.64% on Monday, Jan. 3, as it retraced most of the recent decline from last Thursday’s record high of 4,808.93. Yesterday the index fell to the local low of 4,758.17, before advancing almost 40 points. The S&P 500 index remains way above the local highs from November and December. Stocks broke above the consolidation and we had a quick Santa Claus rally. The broad stock market’s gauge continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within an uptrend.
On Dec. 3 the index fell to the local low of 4,495.12 and it was 5.24% below the previous record high. So it was a pretty mild downward correction or just a consolidation following last year’s advances.
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
The Alibaba Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Those lockdown growth tech stock darlings are leading the decline, the non FAANG variety are seriously starting to resemble Alibaba in terms of trend trajectories.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Stock Market Happy 2022 Entry / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out.
As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising.
Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words:
(…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury.
As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021.
Monday, January 03, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: 2022 Can Be Your Best Year Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Starting with a clean slate in 2022, you can make it the best year you ever have in the market.
It's time to start focusing on what is truly important in the market.
If what you have been doing until now is not working, isn't it time to broaden your understanding of how the market truly works?
With the market likely going to provide us another buying opportunity in early 2022, you may want to set yourself up before we begin the next major rally to 5500SPX.
If you have followed me during the last decade that I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, you would know that we have made some calls that have seemed absolutely ridiculous at the time. But, nevertheless, the market followed the path we laid out no matter how crazy it may have seemed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 02, 2022
Stock Market Sector Themes In Play For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As 2021 closes, it’s time to consider how sector themes in the markets are likely to perform in 2022.
Years like 2021 saw a solid broad-based performance in many stock market sectors. Relatively simple approaches such as Indexing and Sector Rotation did well. But with macro changes in play and many uncertainties for 2022, we may very well see broad indexes underperforming while individual sectors dominated by a few stocks really shine.
Dips will continue to be bought unless something significant changes. But let’s not forget that we’re long overdue for a substantial correction. Significant risk catalysts are:
- Fed actions.
- International conflicts (i.e., Russia and China).
- Pandemic developments that are not currently known.
There’s always the risk of the unknown – the literal definition of a “Black Swan” event. We shouldn’t get too complacent, knowing that we may need to get defensive to protect capital suddenly. When it’s time to be defensive, let’s not forget that CASH IS A POSITION!
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 02, 2022
Stock Market Early 2022 Should Continue Melt-Up Trend In January / February / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A very late Santa Rally appears to have been set up in the US markets as we close in on the end of 2021. The US markets have already started a melt-up trend – which is what I expected to happen prior to the bout of volatility over the past 30+ days.
A Very Late Santa Rally Could Prompt A Powerful Move Upward
A very late positive shift in the US major indexes may prompt a powerful upward price trend in early 2022. I expect that Q4:2021 earnings and revenues will continue to impress traders while the US Dollar strengthens above 95. This combination of a strong US economy with a stronger US Dollar will continue to attract foreign capital investment in US equities in early 2022.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Stock Market Santa Rally Challenge / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. The signs are there to knock the bulls somewhat down, and fresh ATHs look to really have to wait till next week.
Checking up on the VIX, financials and consumer discretionaries confirms the odds of the bears stepping in today, and perhaps also tomorrow (depending upon today‘s close). The repelled HYG downswing likewise doesn‘t represent a significant risk-off turn (yet) – instead, we appear to be on the doorstep of another rotation, and its depth would be determined by how well tech is able to hold near current levels.
Looking at precious metals, commodities and cryptos, the sellers of this risk-on rally have good odds of closing in the black for today. Earliest signs of stabilization would come from bonds, tech and cryptos – that‘s where I‘m mostly looking today.
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Investment Roadmap for 2022 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: EWI
Hi,
Cryptos competing with USD and EUR. NFTs competing with Rembrandt and Da Vinci. Electric car makers with $0 revenue but market cap bigger than GM, Ford or Toyota.
How do you make sense of today's financial trends?
Read full article... Read full article...