Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 13, 2021
What I Got Wrong about 2021’s Biggest Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
There’s going to be a lot of disappointed kids…I asked my barber what present his son wanted this Christmas.
“A PlayStation 5… but he might as well ask for gold dust,” he said.
Parents are scrambling to get their hands on Sony’s latest game console.
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
What Happens to the Stock Market After a Bullish Stampede? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag.
With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon.
To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19:
While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days.
On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic.
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Socionomics the Key to Predicting Trends in Culture, Business, Politics and More / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
Have you heard of socionomics?
Socionomics is a budding field that uses trends in stock prices to predict and prepare for trends in business, the economy, politics, pop culture, polarization, societal health and much more.
It's an exciting perspective with (near) limitless practical application.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Deleveraging COVID Bubble – Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I get asked all the time what my opinions are regarding the markets. As much as I could go into really deep details regarding technical analysis and other factors of my research, the simple answer is that we’ve been living through 2~4+ years of incredible market trends and unprecedented global central bank efforts to support and contain market risks. This is something we have not seen at these levels since the end of WWII and after the Great Depression.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Trading Options in the UK / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Russell_Fenton
Some investors are happy with capital growth on their portfolios when trading stock markets, while some are looking for higher returns. There exists an option where there is still potential to make a lot of money, yet with lower risk than buying shares. Options trading can be an appealing method of making money in the financial markets, yet many people fail to understand even the basics of this complex transaction.
Nowadays, many brokers will allow you to sign up for an account and trade options, even without qualifications or financial investments. You will, therefore, only need the required funds to cover the initial margin requirements set out by your broker before you can begin trading.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
Stock Market Turning the Corner in Style / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. Finally, we saw a truly risk-on positioning in the credit markets – and that won‘t be without (positive) consequences.
Still, it pays to be ready for the adverse scenario that I‘ve described in yesterday‘s key analysis, in connection with which I have received an interesting question. It‘s essentially a request to dig in some more so that my thinking can‘t be interpreted as being on the verge of immediately flipping bearish:
Q: Your analysis of today: "Downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction's low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals". I am not sure if I am interpreting this right (English is not my native language). Are you saying that the market might turn down spectacular, even for precious metals?
A: it's specifically the market breadth for larger than 500 stock indices that tells me we possibly aren't out of the woods yet - no matter the technical improvements that I looked for us to get yesterday, and that are likely to continue thanks not only to solid HYG performance. What I'm saying is that unless there is broader participation in the unfolding S&P 500 rally (and in the rally of other indices), we're in danger of a more significant move to the downside than we saw already (those few percents down).
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am keeping my post simple, as I am really short on time.
For those that follow my analysis through the years, you would remember that I turned strongly bullish as the S&P 500 approached the 2200SPX region in March of 2020. But, if you also remember that time period, the level of fear in the market even exceeded that seen at the March 2009 lows. So, when I suggested that the market would see a rally from 2200 to at least 4000, with an ideal target in the 6000 region, many simply could not believe what I was saying, as you can see here.
As you can see, most folks thought my view was “unmeaningful,” “absurd,” “insane,” or based upon “chart magic,” while I ignored the “common sense view.” However, my expectation was based upon our Fibonacci Pinball methodology of applying Elliott Wave analysis.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.
Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.
Tuesday, December 07, 2021
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse / Stock-Markets / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Happy Thanksgiving holiday to all my patrons in honour of the 102 pilgrims who left England in 1620 on board the Mayflower to start their new lives in the New World, struggled to grow food until the native americans taught them how to use the land, followed in November 1621 by the first thanksgiving when the native americans were invited by the settlers to a big feast, though I don't think they were invited in subsequent years given outbreak of hostilities . Nevertheless a belated happy thanksgiving!
Facebook hit the nail on the head by bringing forth realisation to the masses of the emerging metaverse's with their corporate name change to META, though most will soon forget what all the fuss was about and carry on their merry way until they next big metaverse story, so this aspect of the Quantum AI mega-trend will continue to trundle along in the background. However savvy investors will already be aware of the "meta-verse" and what it heralds in terms of virtual products and services as the headsets technology plays catchup so as to allow the masses to escape from an increasingly dismal economic future given the rise of machine intelligence automation that seeks to replace human labour as we have seen play out in countless movies such as Ready Player One.
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Tuesday, December 07, 2021
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Submissions
Selling a share on the stock market is as important and intricate as buying one, especially in the Australian market. It's challenging to let go of a profitable asset, and it's impossible to predict when stock prices rise or decline. Many beginners of the industry may regret selling their shares right before they grow, missing out on massive gains, while others may hold on to them for too long, expecting that a declining stock would recover.The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) currently lists approximately 2,000 firms, each with data on share prices and predicted growth or decrease. Shareholders gain or lose money based on how well a firm performs gradually; therefore, it shouldn't be underestimated. While perfectly planning your trades is impossible, many share-selling tips allow you to make wiser decisions. Selling your shares on the ASX? Here are four tips for selling ASX shares, whether for profit or loss:
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Tuesday, December 07, 2021
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we’ve been watching the markets recoil away from risks related to the new Omicron COVID variant and other factors, one simple thought keeps running through my head. What if the markets suddenly shift away from this panic selling and resume a rally/recovery trend – possibly pushing to new all-time highs before the end of the year?
Recently, the Put/Call ratio reached a moderate-high near 0.84. I interpret this as long traders buying protection in the event of an extended breakdown in the US/global markets. In the past, typically, when the Put/Call ratio reaches levels above 0.80 – the markets are very close to a bottom.
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Monday, December 06, 2021
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 bounced from the 4,500 level on Thursday, as it retraced most of its Wednesday’s sell-off. Was it a reversal or just another upward correction?For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The broad stock market index gained 1.42% on Thursday after opening slightly lower and bouncing from the new local low of 4,504.73. The index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546. Overall, it lost 5.04% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. But Thursday’s trading session was bullish and stocks were gaining. Was it an upward reversal? This morning stocks are expected to open 0.3% higher after the mixed monthly jobs data release. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. We may see a short-term consolidation following the recent declines.
The nearest important support level is now at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Monday, December 06, 2021
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost all of the US and global markets volatility has taken place over the last 6+ trading days. Even though economic data continues to show a strengthening US economy and jobs market, the news of the Omicron COVID variant has spooked the global markets. I’m going to illustrate how the markets are nearing critical support levels that are a “Do-Or-Die” level for the market, in my opinion.
Let’s get right into the charts – shall we?
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Sunday, December 05, 2021
How Stagflation Effects Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing mantra has been that one of the primary reasons to remain invested in AI tech stocks is because they are leveredged to inflation, which on an average basis is true. However when gauging how each individual stock will react to inflation one needs to take key points into consideration such as the stocks valuation where an over valued stock trading on many multiples of the markets average of 20 is going to be finally balanced on a knife edge of future gains vs a bear market where it only takes a small shift in investor expectations to send that stock sharply lower.
Whilst the basic reason why AI stocks are leveraged to inflation is because inflation will inflate their revenues and costs and given that AI stocks are highly profitable then the gap between revenues and costs should expand due to inflation hence are leveraged to inflation.
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is overbought on multitude of measures and ripe for significant correction even if many people are expecting it to happen. Though I hear many people stating that because so many are expecting a correction therefore it's sods law that it's not going to happen so don't risk missing out on another 10% bull ruin by waiting for a correction!
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? / Stock-Markets / Trading Systems
By: Submissions
Trading is very interesting and rewarding when you have proper knowledge, nerves of steel, and fast decision-making skills. All of this starts with knowing the basics of trading.
Today in this article, let us find out more about the golden cross trading pattern.
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Friday, December 03, 2021
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery. Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking. What’s next?
Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks
This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply disruptions for another 12+ months – or longer?
The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing that has taken place over the last 4+ years by global central banks may be acting as an anchor for growth and starting to weigh down global markets. Easy money policies lead individuals and corporations to borrow more and more capital expecting growing returns from sales. What happens when we start to see a mild economic slowdown take place, possibly complicated by inflationary price trends and consumers that pull away from making big purchases?
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Friday, December 03, 2021
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor…One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…
This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.
***
“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”
That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.
Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.
New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.
Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…
But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.
Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.
“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.
Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.
Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”
Source: WSJ
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.
Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.
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