Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Bullish Trend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow has barely had any significant correction in now approaching a year, chugging along the upper resistance trend line for the past 6 months.
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Monday, November 08, 2021
Stock Market Dow Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Thursday, November 04, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is part 2 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 w- Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Stock Market Nearing Short-term High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, November 01, 2021
Profit-Taking After Earnings May Send Stock Prices Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks retraced their short-term decline yesterday, but today we may see a lower opening following the earnings releases. Is this a topping pattern?
The S&P 500 index gained 0.98% on Thursday, Oct. 28, as it retraced its whole Tuesday’s-Wednesday’s decline to the support level of 4,550. It got back to the Tuesday’s record high of 4,598.53 yesterday. The daily close was just 2 points below that level. The stock market is still reacting to quarterly corporate earnings releases. Yesterday we got the releases from AAPL and AMZN, among others. But the first reaction to their numbers was negative. The market seems overbought in the short-term it is most likely fluctuating within a topping pattern.
The nearest important support level is at 4,550, and the next support level is at 4,520-4,525, marked by the previous Wednesday’s daily gap up of 4,520.40-4,524.40. On the other hand, the resistance level is at around 4,600, marked by the new record high. Despite reaching new record highs, the S&P 500 remained below a very steep week-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Monday, November 01, 2021
Wild Choppy Stock Market Moves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for expecting larger gains on yesterday‘s magnitute of the dollar slump. And long-dated Treasuries barely moved – their daily candle approximates nicely the volatility one as both give the impression of wanting to move a bit higher while their Thursday‘s move was a countertrend one.
Not even value was able to surge past its Wednesday‘s setback, which makes me think the bears can return easily. At the same time, tech stepped into the void, and had a positive day, balancing the dowwnside S&P 500 risks significantly. The very short-term outlook in stocks is unclear, and choppy trading between yesterday‘s highs and 4,550 shouldn‘t be surprising today.
At the same time, precious metals could have had a much stronger day – but the sentiment was risk-off in spite of the tanking dollar and doubted yields as the rising tech and gold at the expense of silver illustrate. Miners recent outperformance was absent just as much as commodities vigor with the exception of copper. And it‘s more celebrations in the red metal following its steep and far reaching correction, that‘s the part of missing ingredients as much as fresh inflation fears (yes, adding to risk-off mood, inflation expectations declined yesterday).
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Sunday, October 31, 2021
Inflationary Wonderland / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Inflation has permeated the macro markets; where to from here?
Apologies in advance for some of the possibly confusing content to follow. But if this were easy anyone could do it, eh? There are a lot of balls in the air; balls known as inflation vs. deflation and most of all time frames.
The media present inflation as this guy picking out higher priced fruit. Wait til he gets to the meat department! You can click the graphic for the article at CNBC.
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Saturday, October 30, 2021
Stock Market Volaility - What is Contango in the VIX? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head option’s trading specialist Neil Szczepanski who has been trading options for almost 20 years sends out real live trade alerts on real trades with real money. Come check it out here: TheTechnicalTraders.com
I have been trading options and coaching / mentoring other new options traders for years. I have seen new traders who were lucky and ended up with some winning trades and others who were so frustrated and on the verge of giving up. I have seen it all. One of the things I have noticed is that very few people understand the VIX or AKA the fear gauge to the markets.
Many know that it is a measure of fear but they don’t really understand what it is and how it is constructed. If you are an options trader, I would argue it is very important that you as a trader understand what the VIX is and how it works.
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Friday, October 29, 2021
What Do The Current Earnings Reports Tell Us About The Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am going to let you in on one of my pet peeves this week: I abhor intellectual dishonesty in analysis. And, earnings season always brings to light some wonderful examples.
I was recently told quite confidently by another contributor that the direction of a stock is based upon its earnings. I know this is a common view within the market, but it is far from the truth.
While everyone thinks the market makes sense when a stock price rises on a good earnings report or drops on a bad earnings report, let’s try to understand what happens when a stock declines on good news. So, when blow-out earnings about a company are announced, yet the stock immediately begins to decline, the common theme we hear from the talking heads is that the earnings news was already “priced in” to the stock price. Right?
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia and Best AI Tech Stocks ETF / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Watching Zillow (ZG) move from over $200 per share to recent levels below $90, reflecting a more than 55% collapse in price, while the housing market continues to rally may be an indication that traders/investors have already discounted the future peak in the US capital markets and Real Estate assets related to the current market environment. Zillow is not the only symbol experiencing this broad price decline. Redfin (RDFN) has also declined more than 54% over the past 7+ months.
Is The Peak In Real Estate Flippers Prices Sending A Strong Warning For Traders/Investors?
The peak in these stocks happened near February 16~22, 2021. This date, interestingly enough, aligns with a peak in global capital markets using my proprietary Smart Cash Index and a very clear peak in the Chinese Hang Seng Index.
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Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Stock Market New Intermediate uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached but appears to have been only an intermediate target. Higher levels should now be reached before an important top is struck.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, October 25, 2021
Stock Market Against Bond Market Odds / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Such was the S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The whiff of risk-off that I was looking for yesterday, was a very shallow one in stocks, and much deeper in real assets. What‘s remarkable about the stock market upswing, is that it was led by tech while value barely clung to its opening values – and yields rose yet again. But the dynamic is supposed to work the other way – even financials felt the pinch, but at least real estate rose.
Another characteristic worth noting is that the dollar increased yesterday too, and stocks didn‘t mind. The VIX closed almost at 15, which is its lowest value since the beginning of Jul. S&P 500 indeed didn‘t hesitate at 4,520, and broke above similarly to the prior turning point (that wasn‘t) at 4,420. I‘m letting the open long S&P 500 profits run as rising yields aren‘t yet a problem for stocks, and inflation isn‘t still strong enough to break the bulls‘ back – but inflation expectations keep rising, and that‘s a factor once again underpinning precious metals.
When a brief risk-off moment arrives though, commodities are to feel the pinch, and that‘s true also about silver as opposed to gold. Indeed yesterday, the yellow metal did much better than the white one. Copper corrected with a delay to the fresh LME trading measures, and quite profoundly given that the London stockpile represents only a day‘s worth of China factory copper consumption. The dust in the red metal hasn‘t yet settled, but black gold recovered smartly from the steep intraday drop to $81, dealing open oil profits – and the selling in oil stocks looks to be overdone on a daily basis. Finally, the Bitcoin setback I was looking for, happened, but doesn‘t spell the end of the crypto run – more cypto gains to enjoy.
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"I don't want to hear about it."
That's the general response from many new retail investors here in 2021 when a veteran stock market observer expresses any hint of caution about the stock market.
This lack of respect for sober reflections about the market has been exhibited before.
Indeed, as far back as 1997, in a Special Report titled "Bulls, Bears and Manias," The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and cultural trends, said:
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Sunday, October 24, 2021
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Two main factors are driving the rally in the US stock markets recently; retail traders buying the dip, and Q3:2021 earnings data is starting to shake away the concerns that resulted in the recent market rotation. Combine these activities with the start of the Christmas Rally phase (which usually starts sometime after mid/late-October and carries through into early January), and we have the making of a moderately strong potential price rally in the US major indexes over the next 60+ days.
The $4550 Level Is Critical Resistance For The S&P500
I’m highlighting this ES Daily & Weekly chart pattern, below, to share with you how important it is to see the ES break above the $4550 level – the past high price peak. If the markets are going to start a new rally headed into the 2021 Christmas season, then we need to see the ES continue to rally and break above the $4550 level. It is critically important that price breach the $4550 level and attempt a strong move higher if this bullish momentum persists.
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Thursday, October 21, 2021
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 prompt recovery confirms my bullish run thesis – above 4,520, and given my Feb announced year end target of 4,700, fresh ATHs are approaching. Get ready though for quite some volatility as the current lull won‘t last indefinitely – I‘m not looking for VIX at 15 to be broken to the downside on a closing basis, and wouldn‘t be surprised by another noticeable correction once the current upswing runs out of steam somewhat above prior ATHs.
So far so good, and the stock market run continues without marked credit markets confirmation as the risk-on turn there isn‘t complete (yet). Treasury yields aren‘t retreating, yet tech is the driver of the S&P 500 upswing while value keeps treading water. Encouragingly, financials do well – it‘s cyclicals‘ time, and the open S&P 500 long position is very solidly profitable already.
Commodities upswing continues, and precious metals (silver leading gold), are in the tow. Less so when it comes to silver, which is inspired by the great copper run. As if indeed silver was sniffing the copper awakening soon – strong copper long profits keep growing too. Crude oil refused to yield much ground, and any timid intraday move down, gets swiftly bought. Similarly cryptos aren‘t looking back.
Monday, October 18, 2021
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance bodes well for further advances. Financials and consumer discretionaries liked the daily upswing in yields while tech and real estates fared well regardless. VIX is likely to probe even lower values, it seems.
So, the open S&P 500 long position is working out well, and will likely continue to do so as higher yields just can‘t help the dollar rise. Inflation expectations are again turning up as we have moved from 1H 2021 Fed saying that inflation was transitory to the current phrase that inflation is transitory, but would last longer than we though. The next stage (arriving latest in Q1 2022) will likely be that inflation is sticky but we have tools to deal with it, followed by putting up a happy face that it‘s a good thing we have inflation after all.
Silver will likely keep leading gold, and the nearest target for the gold to silver ratio is 73. Crucially, miners keep confirming the upswing, and the copper example bodes well for silver as both metals are essential for the green economy, talking which means that crude oil is also likely to keep rising. Time to extend the commodity profits even more at a time when crypto gains keep doing great.
Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade.