Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
Stock Market Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4:2021 earnings blowout before the end of 2021? Let’s take a look at what predictive modeling can help us understand.
The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing up expectations of a Santa Rally. Yet, here we are with only five trading days before the end of 2021, and the US major indexes are nearing all-time highs again.
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Monday, December 27, 2021
Stock Market Still More to Come / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. As I told you yesterday about volatility:
(…) The VIX is calming down, now around 21 with further room to decline still – at least as far as the remainder of 2021 is concerned.
We got the lower values, and today is shaping up to look likewise constructively for the bulls across both paper and real assets. Yesterday‘s dollar decline has helped as much as well bid bonds. Inflation expectations aren‘t yet doubting the Fed, there is no more compressing the yield curve at the moment, so it‘s all quiet on the central bank front. That‘s good, the Santa rally can go on unimpeded.
Precious metals are peeking higher in what looks to be adjustment to the lower yields and dollar, and commodities upswing remains driven by energy, base metals and agrifoods. Cryptos hesitation may hint at slimmer gains today than was the case yesterday when instead of a brief consolidation, we were treated to improving returns.
Thursday, December 23, 2021
Stock Market Santa Rally Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is still being added – the real wildcard moving the markets, is corona these days. Credit markets are in the early stages of heralding risk-on appetite as returning. As stated yesterday when mentioning my 2022 outlook:
(…) Fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.
Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?
The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. … Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Good Luck Trying To Understand This Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
During the last two weeks, I had the pleasure of traveling with my wife, Sharise, as we hosted our members on a cruise through the Caribbean. We then flew to New York, where we spent time with my father, whose health has been recently failing, and had the opportunity to see Andrea Bocelli in concert at Madison Square Garden.
If you have ever had the pleasure of hearing Mr. Bocelli sing, then you would know how his music can touch your soul. But, if you had the opportunity to learn his life story of perseverance, it would touch your soul that much more deeply.
In a loving note to his family, Mr. Bocelli penned the following words:
"never forget there is no such thing as happenstance. That's an illusion that lawless and arrogant men invented, so that they could sacrifice the truth of our world to their laws of reason."
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021
US Dollar‘s Stock Market Warning Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack, but it would be overcome. If there are two arguments in favor, it‘s the financials and HYG – the likely rebound in the former, and Friday‘s resilience in the latter. Given that Thursday‘s spurt to 4,750 evaporated so fast, I‘m not looking for a stellar year end. Positive given where we‘re trading currently, sure.
Markets are now grappling with faster Fed tapering (which has opened the way to a rate hike in Q2 2022), getting slowly more afraid of fresh corona restrictions, and dealing with inflation that‘s not going anywhere. Outpacing wage growth, with real yields being deeply negative (no, 10-year Treasury yield at even 2% doesn‘t cut it – that‘s my 2022 target, by the way), the administration would be hard pressed in the year of midterms to counter the corrosive inflation effects on poll numbers. And the Fed expects to keep tightening when the real economy is already suffering from contracting liquidity as seen also in strengthening dollar?
The central bank will have a hard time taming inflation, and in my view won‘t succeed – the persistently high inflation rates are going to be with us for years to come, and outpacing wages. Corona response is another uncertainty, and given the APT performance, the odds of seeing economic activity (just at a time when supply chains would need to keep working off prior setbacks) restricted, have increased. Similar to the recent high PPI reading, this is one more argument for why inflation isn‘t receding in the short run – not when demand isn‘t likewise being destroyed. As if consumer sentiment weren‘t struggling already...
Monday, December 20, 2021
Fading the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value barely hanging onto opening gains. Russell 2000 breaking below its Wednesday‘s open nicely illustrates how late in the topping process we are. What is needed for the upswing to go on, is tech leading the daily charge once again – and it remains to be seen for how long and to what degree would value be able to participate.
I‘m taking today‘s S&P 500 weakness as squaring the prior quick long gains, which felt practically as a short squeeze. Now, we‘re working through the faster taper impact, not having shaken the news off yet. We‘re though getting there, if precious metals seeing through the fresh policy move inadequacy, and commodities likewise, are any clue. As I wrote yesterday:
(…) pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. Taper done by Mar 2022, and three rate hikes then, doesn‘t cut it. This illustrates my doubts about serious inflation figures to still keep hitting (hello latest PPI), and above all, their ability to execute this 1-year plan. If you look under the hood, they don‘t even expect GDP to materially slow down – 4.0% growth in 2022 with three hikes against 3.8% actual in Q3 2021 on no hikes. Something doesn‘t add up, and just as the Bank of England raising rates to 0.25% now, the Fed would be forced to hastily retreat from the just projected course.
Sunday, December 19, 2021
AI Predicts HIGH Risk of Stock Market CRASH, Last Warning Was Late Feb 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Don’t blindly buy the dip in Stocks. Do this instead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler Stocks are under pressure.Although the big indexes like the S&P 500 have bounced back strongly so far this week... things still look dicey under the surface.
Stocks in leading industries like software, cybersecurity, and clean energy have sold off sharply.
Many investors make a huge mistake during times like this.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Stock Market Cliffhanger: 5 Historic Measures Point to ONE Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Options trading is HUGE these days, and you may be in that camp, too -- so, we think you'll find this story very interesting.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021
AI Predicts Risks of Stock Market CRASH, Last Signal Was in Late Feb 2020. / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
My Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) has been triggered as of Fridays close with a reading of 103.4% where a reading of at least 100% equals SWITCHED ON for the first time since late Feb 2020 when it was triggered with a reading of 112%.
Contents:
What is the CI18?
CI18 Trigger Feb 2020
Existing Stock Market Trend Forecast
Stock Market VIX
Stock Market December Trend
OMICRON THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK!
MUTED SANTA RALLY
The Alibaba Stock Market
ARKK Garbage
Stocks Bear Market of 2022 May Have Started EARLY!
Facebook $301 Buying level achieved.
Recession 2022
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Crypto FLASH CRASH Early Christmas Present
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Another Stock Market Inflation Twist / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than bonds awaiting tomorrow‘s Fed, which is a good sign for the bulls across the paper and real assets. Sure, the ride is increasingly getting bumpy (and will get so even more over the coming weeks), but we haven‘t topped in spite of the negative shifts mentioned yesterday.
The signs appear to be in place, pointing to a limited downside in the pre-FOMC positioning, but when the dust settles, more than a few markets are likely to shake off the Fed blues. I continue doubting the Fed would be able to keep delivering on its own hyped inflation fighting projections – be it in faster taper or rate raising. Crude oil is likewise just hanging in there and ready – the Fed must be aware of real economy‘s fragility, which is what Treasuries are in my view signalling with their relative serenity. We‘ve travelled a long journey from the Fed risk of letting inflation run unattented, to the Fed making a policy mistake in tightening the screws too much.
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Insights into a "Remarkable" NASDAQ Stock Market Development / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here's what usually happens in the stock market when "the troops abandon the generals"
You've probably heard the phrase: "Appearances can be deceiving."
In other words, it's usually wise to "take a closer look" because the truth may not be obvious.
This applies to various circumstances of life -- even the stock market.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Act NOW to Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the concluding part 2 of 2 of my analysis that explains why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Breaking down the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) / Stock-Markets / DeFi
By: Stephen_McBride
Middlemen rule traditional finance. Loan officers at banks decide whether to give you money. We have to deal with stockbrokers, mortgage brokers, and insurance brokers.
DeFi is banking without the bankers. It’s a whole new financial system built on Ethereum’s (ETH) blockchain.
Blockchain’s key innovation is automating trust between strangers. This is extremely powerful. It means we no longer have to rely on financial middlemen to buy stocks or lend money.
DeFi replaces bankers with software. This software is built and managed by a community of individuals on the blockchain, spread across the world.
Monday, December 13, 2021
What I Got Wrong about 2021’s Biggest Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
There’s going to be a lot of disappointed kids…I asked my barber what present his son wanted this Christmas.
“A PlayStation 5… but he might as well ask for gold dust,” he said.
Parents are scrambling to get their hands on Sony’s latest game console.
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Saturday, December 11, 2021
What Happens to the Stock Market After a Bullish Stampede? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The bulls pumped up the market, but with fundamentals deteriorating and corporations largely responsible for the spike, regular investors will be left holding the bag.
With investors betting on a Santa Clause rally despite the deteriorating fundamentals, the S&P 500 helped the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior mining stocks) outperform on Dec. 7. However, with short-covering and corporate buybacks primarily responsible for the daily spike, another ‘Minsky Moment’ could be on the horizon.
To explain, I wrote on Nov. 19:
While European markets have largely ignored the recent coronavirus spikes, a sharp sell-off could be the spark that lights the S&P 500’s correction. To explain, the DAX 30 Index (Germany) and the CAC 40 Index (France) both closed slightly lower on Nov. 18. However, prior to Nov. 18, the DAX 30 had closed in the green for 13 of the last 15 trading days, and one-upping its European counterpart, the CAC 40 had closed in the green for 15 of the last 16 trading days.
On top of that, the CAC 40 had an RSI (Relative Strength Index) north of 80, while the DAX 30 had an RSI north of 75. As a result, both indices are materially overbought at a time when Germany is implementing new restrictions. Thus, if a Minsky Moment strikes in Europe, don’t be surprised if the negativity cascades across the Atlantic.
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Socionomics the Key to Predicting Trends in Culture, Business, Politics and More / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
Have you heard of socionomics?
Socionomics is a budding field that uses trends in stock prices to predict and prepare for trends in business, the economy, politics, pop culture, polarization, societal health and much more.
It's an exciting perspective with (near) limitless practical application.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Deleveraging COVID Bubble – Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I get asked all the time what my opinions are regarding the markets. As much as I could go into really deep details regarding technical analysis and other factors of my research, the simple answer is that we’ve been living through 2~4+ years of incredible market trends and unprecedented global central bank efforts to support and contain market risks. This is something we have not seen at these levels since the end of WWII and after the Great Depression.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Trading Options in the UK / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
By: Russell_Fenton
Some investors are happy with capital growth on their portfolios when trading stock markets, while some are looking for higher returns. There exists an option where there is still potential to make a lot of money, yet with lower risk than buying shares. Options trading can be an appealing method of making money in the financial markets, yet many people fail to understand even the basics of this complex transaction.
Nowadays, many brokers will allow you to sign up for an account and trade options, even without qualifications or financial investments. You will, therefore, only need the required funds to cover the initial margin requirements set out by your broker before you can begin trading.
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Thursday, December 09, 2021
Stock Market Turning the Corner in Style / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. Finally, we saw a truly risk-on positioning in the credit markets – and that won‘t be without (positive) consequences.
Still, it pays to be ready for the adverse scenario that I‘ve described in yesterday‘s key analysis, in connection with which I have received an interesting question. It‘s essentially a request to dig in some more so that my thinking can‘t be interpreted as being on the verge of immediately flipping bearish:
Q: Your analysis of today: "Downside risks having sharply increased since Thanksgiving. Not only for stocks, where we might not be making THE correction's low, but also for commodities, cryptos and precious metals". I am not sure if I am interpreting this right (English is not my native language). Are you saying that the market might turn down spectacular, even for precious metals?
A: it's specifically the market breadth for larger than 500 stock indices that tells me we possibly aren't out of the woods yet - no matter the technical improvements that I looked for us to get yesterday, and that are likely to continue thanks not only to solid HYG performance. What I'm saying is that unless there is broader participation in the unfolding S&P 500 rally (and in the rally of other indices), we're in danger of a more significant move to the downside than we saw already (those few percents down).