Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Stock Market New High and the Lindsay Forecast / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Ed_Carlson
Last week's new high in the Dow puts the Lindsay forecast into flux. Long time readers know that the advance from the 2011 Sideways Movement was long ago recognized to be the fly in the ointment for forecasting the end of the bull market.
Quick Review: Sideways Movements (when the basic advance is unable to reach the time span of the 15year interval) are almost always topping formations. Lindsay identified only two instances (over the course of 200 years) which saw advances from this pattern, rather than declines, and this was seen again in 2011. The challenge is in knowing from where to count the next basic advance. After much vacillating, it was decided to count the current basic advance from the low on 12/19/11 due to the description Lindsay gave of the 1926 pattern.
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Monday, May 19, 2014
Stock Market Further Uncertainty As Indexes Gained On Friday, Will Uptrend Resume? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are still favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is still bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, May 19, 2014
Stock Market Too Late to be Bullish and Too Early to be Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Probably tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, May 18, 2014
First Quarter Doldrums Amp Up Stock Market Fear Factor / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Based on preliminary first-quarter data, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth is 0.1%.
That’s not much.
But then again, what do you expect for $3.4 trillion of Federal Reserve spending to boost the economy.
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Sunday, May 18, 2014
Strategic Investment Conference: Day 3 - Stock Market Due for a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: John_Mauldin
By Worth Wray
Good morning from 30,000 feet, somewhere over the great American West!
I admit to being a little overwhelmed as I write to you on my way home from the Strategic Investment Conference. After three days with two dozen of the finest investors, economists, and political scientists anywhere in the English-speaking world, it is going to take me weeks to think through the real-world implications of all I have learned.
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Sunday, May 18, 2014
Strategic Investment Conference: Day 2 - Debt and Innovation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: John_Mauldin
By Worth Wray
Hello again from the Strategic Investment Conference in San Diego, California!
John Mauldin took the stage on day 2 with a powerful message: while the human brain struggles to anticipate exponential change, our economic future quite literally depends on a race between two accelerating curves – debt and innovation.
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Sunday, May 18, 2014
Strategic Investment Conference: Day 1 Special Update / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: John_Mauldin
By Worth Wray
Good morning from sunny San Diego, California!
As the sun rises on the second day of the Strategic Investment Conference, I am absolutely blown away. John and Altegris put on an amazing show, and this is simply unlike any investment conference I have ever attended.
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Sunday, May 18, 2014
U.S. Bond Market Warning to Stock Market Traders / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Investment_U
Christopher Rowe writes: The 10-year Treasury note just fell to a seven-month low and is a hair away from an 11-month low. This week’s chart compares the S&P 500 to the Treasury rate for a 10-year period.
The chart shows the 10-Year Treasury Index (^TNX). Move the decimal one space to the left to get the current interest rate. EXAMPLE: TNX is at 29.50 when the “10-Year” pays 2.95% interest.
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Saturday, May 17, 2014
Sayanora ¥, Konichiwa Nikkei San / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jonathan_Davis
In 1989 The Nikkei index touched just short of 40,000.
Today it’s around 14,000.
There is an almost 100% inverse correlation in the relationship between the ¥ and the Japanese stock market. Thus, as the ¥ rises then the Nikkei will fall. And vice versa.
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Saturday, May 17, 2014
Nasdaq Tech Stock Index Next Surge Higher? Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another week in which a new all time high was sold off. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.3%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.7%, and the DJ World index was +0.2%. Economic reports came in about 2 to 1 to the positive. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, the PPI/CPI, the NY FED, housing starts, building permits, the WLEI, the monetary base, plus, weekly jobless claims improved and the treasury ran a surplus. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, the Philly FED, the NAHB index, and consumer sentiment. Next week few economic reports, but we do have the FOMC minutes plus existing/new home sales. Best to your week!
Saturday, May 17, 2014
Biotech Stocks with Upside From a Down Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: TLSReport
A downtrending market is troublesome for investors, but does present interesting opportunities through creation of lower valuations. Finding the right names in the wobbly life sciences environment requires a sharp eye and depth of experience. In this interview with The Life Sciences Report, J.P. Morgan Senior Biotechnology Analyst and Managing Director Geoff Meacham, a veteran analyst and cell biologist, brings eight important names to investors' attention and explains why they are still growth stories.
The Life Sciences Report: Geoff, you're a cell biologist by training. What have you brought from that early experience to your career as a sellside analyst?
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Wall Street Says It’s Different This Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
It’s a good thing it’s different this time! We know it is because Wall Street says so.
The high-valuation levels indicated by the Shiller CAPE 10 Price/Earnings Ratio mean nothing this time, because things are different than when that indicator’s similar readings in previous periods were accompanied by market tops.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Has the Stocks Bear Market Returned? Maybe / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Toby_Connor
Following up on my last article it does look like stocks have begun to move down into the yearly cycle low that I was expecting.
The failed breakout was a big warning sign. After a month and a half consolidation there was no reason for the breakout to fail. By the second test of the 1900 level stocks should have built up enough energy to break through and hold at that point.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Gold, Oil And S&P500 Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Gregor_Horvat
S&P500 has turned bearish in this week and even accelerated lower yesterday. More importantly, prices fell through the channel support line connected from 1803 low, and also moved slightly beneath wave (e) swing low of a wave B triangle. Such price action, especially broken upward channel suggests that market completed a three wave rise from 1803 to 1898. With that said, we assume that market will continue lower now within wave C) that is part of a corrective blue wave (4) that can be a flat.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
How to Manage a Financial Crisis… Before It Happens / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
By: Don_Miller
My wife Jo and I live in Central Florida, and having ridden out a few hurricanes in our lives, we’re as well prepared as we can be for emergencies. We have, among other things, a generator, food, batteries, candles, and a water purification kit.
My wife and I visited Punta Gorda, FL, after the town suffered severe hurricane damage in 2004. After driving one block to the grocery store, we raced out of there with burning eyes and handkerchiefs covering our noses and mouths. We immediately drove back to the motel, changed our clothes, and put what we were wearing in a plastic bag. We’d never seen anything like that before, and it left quite an impression.
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Thursday, May 15, 2014
Stock Market Rampant Deception / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jesse
This is a particularly situation here in the equity markets.
Deception is rampant in the accounting for company numbers. The trading is very 'technical' and the underpinnings of the stock market are as sound as a three card monte game.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
SPX On Its Way Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is on its way, first to the 50-day Moving Average at 1868.64, then to its hourly cycle Bottom at 1860.47. At this rate of decline, we could see this accomplished by the close of the day.
This may be an appropriate level at which to start adding short positions. Further evidence below supports this view.
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Thursday, May 15, 2014
There Are No Markets Anymore / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s a fun day in finance so far today. Eurozone growth is not going anywhere, but there’s no lack of positive anticipations for the future. Is there ever? Q1 GDP in the Netherlands actually shrank to the tune of -1.4%, but they have a great explanation for that. It’s because of – drumroll, wait for it – … the mild winter! The weather can be used to explain anything and everything these days. Where the US economy was hurt by a harsh winter, the Dutch went down because their winter wasn’t harsh enough.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Stock Market S&P 500 Bounced Off 1,900 Level – Uptrend Reversal Or Just A Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are still favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Stock Market False Breakout and Reversal.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
You've heard the expression suck and spit. We have just that folks. For now anyway. The Dow broke out on a closing basis, but it's only thirty stocks. I wanted to see the S&P 500 break out above its old high on a closing basis at 1897. It reached 1902 intraday yesterday, but closed below. Today it fell hard. The Nasdaq cleared its 50-day exponential moving average yesterday intraday as well only to close below. Today it fell hard again. It's not the action you want to see at breakout levels. Small caps are simply terrible.
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