Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Probability Theory and Retirement Portfolios, Jumping into the Suicide Pool / Stock-Markets / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
“By ‘uncertain’ knowledge, let me explain, I do not mean merely to distinguish what is known for certain from what is only probable. The game of roulette is not subject, in this sense, to uncertainty; nor is the prospect of a Victory bond being drawn. Or, again, the expectation of life is only slightly uncertain. Even the weather is only moderately uncertain. The sense in which I am using the term is that in which the prospect of a European war is uncertain, or the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the obsolescence of a new invention, or the position of private wealth owners in the social system in 1970. About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever.”
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Stock Market Ready For the Next Wave Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: WavePatternTraders
The corrections that I was looking for finally started to correct last week, although it started a little later than I initially figured, it finally caught up to the other markets.
I have been using the forex markets for a while now for clues to the cycles and wave patterns with the US markets, we went into last Sunday looking for a reversal on the ES e-mini and head lower to what I think is a 4th wave pull back from the June 2012 lows.
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Sunday, September 30, 2012
Stock Market Forecast for the Coming Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Manas_Banerji
Now words of concern are coming from different authorities on the significance of latest QE-3 in US. One thing is sure that market has not welcomed it with bumper outcomes or as I said in past that it has already discounted it. Some housing reports from US were better but may be market is waiting for monthly jobs report which is due in coming week. Markets need an assurance from both sides of the Atlantic. Market will be seriously expecting stimulus from China in coming days, especially after the report of manufacturing contraction. In the last day results of stress tests of Spanish banks were better but unless their main problems are not getting any solution, market will not show different atmosphere.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Stock Market Over Valued, The Real Dow is Trading at 8800 Right Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
What I have to say today might shock you. But by all historical valuation metrics, the Dow Jones Industrial Index is worth 8,800.
Taking in the recent close of 13,458, that means the Dow Jones is overvalued by 53%.
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Friday, September 28, 2012
Stock Market Quarter End Squaring Before the Damn Bursts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I have repositioned the EW structure to simplify it a bit. Today’s rally overlapped wave (1), so yesterday’s decline can only be another wave 1 of a smaller degree. That by no means suggests that the wave itself must be smaller.
Friday, September 28, 2012
What is the Dry Bulk Shipping Industry BDI Index Saying? / Stock-Markets / Global Economy
By: Tony_Caldaro
During the past decade or so nearly every sector of the transporation industry has run into serious Secular cycle problems. First it was the Airlines, then Trucking, then the Autos, and now Shipping. While the first three sectors appear to be in some early stages of recovery. The Shipping sector has yet to find the bottom. During the 2000′s demand-driven commodity boom, shipping rates skyrocketed and new ships were coming online every month. After the 2008 collapse in demand and commodity prices, the shipping industry found itself dealing with much lower rates and huge excess shipping capacity. During the past four years some shipping companies have been forced into bankruptcy, some are facing bankruptcy, and others a struggling along with high long term debt. To reverse this downward cycle, demand has to rise along with shipping rates while industry consolidation continues.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Stock Market Erasing the "Easing" Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. : The S&P 500 logged its fifth consecutive daily decline and seventh of the past eight sessions. The index closed the day with a moderate loss of 0.57%. What’s particularly interesting is a snapshot of the index showing the twin rallies of September — the first dating from September 6th after Mario Draghi unveiled the ECB plan to save the euro. The second, of course, was the announcement of QE3 on September 13th. The index peaked the following morning. We’ve since erased a bit over half the gains.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Stock Market Selling To Unwind Continues.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
And that's really good news if you're bullish on the market. It's unhealthy to stay overbought for too long as you have to sell at some point to alleviate some complacency and constant 70, or higher, RSI readings. We have stayed near 70 RSI for a week, or so, and if you go back three weeks, most of that time was spent near the 70 RSI level on basically all of the important index daily charts. Not good bigger picture. You want things to sell so folks get bearish, and so we can get those RSI's down to the 50 area. That's just what's taking place now. The Nasdaq is actually a few points below that 50 RSI mark. How fast you can get there with a 2-4% pullback off the top. The Dow and S&P 500 are averaging near 50, and this is good as it washes out optimism. We can sure use that for a few weeks, if not longer.
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Thursday, September 27, 2012
Chinese Stock Market Breaks Below 2,000, is China Burning? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today the Shanghai stock index, $SSEC, dipped below the 2000 level for the first time since 2009.
Stockcharts does not have intraday charts of ADRs so here are a couple of charts from yesterday to consider.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Bernanke Put: Beware of Easy Money / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Axel_Merk
Central bankers around the world may be providing a backstop to the financial markets in much the same way Greenspan did during the “Goldilocks” years, but when the short-term euphoria wears off, will the negative repercussions be even more severe? Bernanke’s Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to specifically target equity market appreciation as part of its offensive in bringing down the unemployment rate; expectations are high: every time the market sells off, the Fed might simply print more money. We fear central bankers have overstepped their reach, and the implications of their actions may be much worse than the anticipated benefits.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Is the Soaring Stock Market Hiding a Darker Truth? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon writes: In my role as executive editor, I subscribe to dozens of newsletters, wire services, trade journals and news-bulletins. They roll into my e-mail box each day like an eight-hour-long avalanche.Usually, I just open the ones that happen to catch my eye. One was this recent headline from a MarketWatch.com bulletin that said, "Dow closes at highest level since December 2007."
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Wednesday, September 26, 2012
The Fed Is Trapped, Gold Is The Exit / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
47% of US investors dependent on the Fed believe they are victimized by government, who believe they are entitled to enough liquidity to profit when risk is laid-off onto others, to society, to you-name-it…
On September 13th, the Fed announced QE3, a policy of open-ended bond purchases which would add $1 trillion annually to the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed’s decision to provide liquidity ad infinitum, i.e. QE etc, was framed in reasonable and carefully chosen language:
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Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Stock Market DOW Index Short Term Forecast October 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Dan_Stinson
Elliott Wave on the DOW - DOW Ending Diagonal Patterns
We have been tracing out two ending diagonal patterns for the DOW. The smaller ED pattern and possibly the larger ED pattern completed on Sept 23rd. The corrective choppy action in wave (C) up is an ending diagonal pattern which is a terminal pattern. We should see further downside on the first chart below the lower trendline with a sharp decline to at least the starting point of the ED pattern at 12400.
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Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Betting on Bankers, What if the Fed has Got it All Wrong? / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
As long-time readers know, I get a large volume of research sent my way. I can't get to all of it every week, but I really do try. And today's Outside the Box, from a new (to me) source, hooked me from the first few paragraphs.
Correlation is not causation, as we all know. That brings us to the Fed, where many market observers are seeing causation when there might be other reasons for stock market movements. What if the victory lap Bernanke has taken due to stock market results is perhaps a little too early or out of place entirely? And what might that potentially say about future market performance and correlations?
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Monday, September 24, 2012
Asian Financial Crisis Lessons, Can Malaysia’s Capital Controls be Copied? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2012
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 came as a surprise and caught most people by surprise not only by the speed but also the severity of the crisis. At that time the Asian Economic Miracle was the buzzword then and the Asian Tiger economies are at their peak not only in the performance of their export oriented economies but also the stocks and properties market. To accommodate the shortage of funds needed to boost their economies, their governments embark on a ‘loose money’ monetary policies regime.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Stock Market Brief Correction Due, then Higher Into November Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jim_Curry
It has been a while since I have posted an article, and - due to some recent email requests - I wanted
to take a detailed look as we move into the latter part of 2012, based upon what the larger time cycles
are currently suggesting. In addition, we will take a look at the shorter-term picture, to see what the
U.S. markets may hold in store in the days/weeks to come.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Stock Market Uptrend Pullback Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
It was a relatively quiet Options expiration and week in this US. The entire range for the week was SPX 1450-1467, and those numbers were achieved on thursday and friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Asian markets were -0.3% , European markets were -0.7%, and the DJ World index lost 0.7%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative reports 7 to 3. On the uptick, the NAHB index, housing starts, existing home sales, the monetary base and the WLEI; plus the Philly FED and currect Account balance improved. On the downtick: the NY FED, building permits and leading indicators. Weekly jobless claims were unchanged. Next week we get a look at Q2 GDP, Personal income/spending and PCE prices.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Stock Market Buying Volume Continues to Drop on the US Indexes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Donald_W_Dony
There has been a sharp divergence between the buying volume and the US indexes. The Dow, S&P 500 and the broad New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Composite have all shown a marked separation between the rising prices of the indexes and buying volume.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Stock Market Rally Maxed Out, Heading for Short-term Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the market
SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend – The Fed has extended the SPX intermediate uptrend, but for how long?
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Monday, September 24, 2012
U.S. Dollar Frenzy Selling Opening Up Bullish Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
By: Darah_Bazargan
A market that experiences a climatic selling frenzy can often generate hyper-sold conditions which merit for an oversold rally, but not one that is sustainable to recover from such severe technical damage. Instead what occurs is prices fall back at minimum to retest the prior low, but the decline in motion is not nearly as dramatic. Thereafter becomes a scrimmage between both buyers and sellers until a general support area can be agreed upon, and to where the next bottom can then be established.