Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, April 22, 2011
Stock Market New High is Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
As the stock market starts to buck, investors wonder what is going to happen next. My analysis suggests that there may be one more new high left before we see a bigger correction.
Tuesday evening we got the latest earnings numbers from Intel and IBM and they were well received. Now the question is. Will good earnings be enough to get prices moving back up?
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Gold and Stocks Rally, Overbought, Time For a Pullback / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
It has been a very interesting week thus far. Monday kick started traders with a heart pounding equities sell off which sent money into the US Dollar, precious metals and bonds as the safe havens of choice.
A lot has happened this week on a technical analysis basis which I can’t really show in a written report like this. But can do so in detail within my video newsletter. There are just to many charts required and layers of analysis to cover... But I can cover some of the points and my thoughts using the charts below:
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Beyond The Stock Market VIX Volatility Index / Stock-Markets / Volatility
I have traded options for a number of years and fully understand the "greeks" as should any active options trader. When you understand options you realize how valuable of a tool they are for investing, managing risk and understanding market sentiment. They are not as risky as many think. Before I share a rather important chart, I think it is important to go over a few option basics to fully appreciate what the data is telling you.
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Thursday, April 21, 2011
Intel Ignites Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Going into the earnings reports last night the focus was clearly on International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), the beast of the big boys. This stock had been on fire and was rocking on all cylinders. No one thought the focus of the evening should be on perennial loser Intel. Always disappointing the street. Always saying things are alright but never wonderful. The stock couldn't get out of its own way lately. So we had a blasting IBM and a disappointing Intel. What happens? IBM is great, but not really great, which means it was time for a small breather in the stock price. On the other hand, Intel pulled some magic out of their hat with a powerful report that included increasing margins, and looked better for the future. The result? Intel exploded, and many of the technology stocks are on a rocket ride after hours. The market is once again doing something no one, including yours truly, would have expected as even remotely possible.
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Thursday, April 21, 2011
The U.S. Dollar’s Destruction Apparently Saves the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Wheeeee, what a day already!
The Dollar is down from 76 yesterday to 74.5 this morning, a stunning 2% drop for a currency in a country that didn't have an earthquake or a revolution overnight. 75.63 was our low of last November (a one-day spike and we were back at 81 by the end of the month as the market fell apart) and before that we only touched 74.23 briefly in November of 2009 (it's a bad month for the Dollar) and we flew up from there to 78 in December and 80 in January.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Murderers and Martyrs, Tide Goes Out on Buffett / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
At 12:40 Max Keiser talks to Janet Tavakoli about the tide going out on Warren Buffett, his reverse-moral suasion applied towards the rating agencies, et.al., his potential advance information of the September 2008 bailouts, GoldenWest/Wachovia/Wells Fargo, the SEC’s sleight of hand in bringing minor charges, while leaving massive securitization fraud unaddressed, i.e., enabling cover-ups.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Stock Market Elliott Wave Patterns, Quick Primer on OEW / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
We received a request over the weekend to provide a bit more detail about OEW labeling. OEW applies most of the same terminology as standard EW with one major exception. We added a Major wave between the Primary and Intermediate degrees. It makes more sense, to us, that a Minor wave should be complemented by a Major wave with an Intermediate wave in between them. Our labeling scheme is provided below:
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Debt Fears...Sentiment...Stock Market Lower....Nothing From Nothing.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market uses excuses to get its dirty work done. It tells you when things need to happen by using news to move in a certain direction, even if that same news a month or so back would have done nothing to move it. When a market needs to get something done there is nothing you can do to stop it from happening. There was news today expressing some doubt as to whether the United States will be able to pay its debt. This same news has hit other countries with an initial sell off being bought heavily over time because their markets were bullish in nature. The news really isn't anything new to anyone. We all know this by now, but again, the market needed to move lower and it used this excuse to get the job done. Sentiment is just too bullish short-term, and thus, the selling from news that would have had no effect not too long ago. The excuse. The catalyst if you will.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Stock Market Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Stocks: On Friday stocks formed the swing we were looking for to mark the half cycle low.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
FTSE 100 Stocks Index Forecast 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The following text is excerpted form the NEW The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 70 page ebook is available for FREE Download. Whilst the US economy is expected to outperform the UK across most key measures for the whole of 2011 and probably several more years beyond, which on face value implies lack of performance for the FTSE. However the FTSE is not exactly an index that tracks the prospects for the British economy as over the years the FTSE has incorporated waves of foreign companies listed on the London Stock Exchange that have very little if any activity in the UK such as the big central asian, african and australian mining companies, much more so than any other leading country index such as the Dow, Dax or CAC.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
QE Monetary Madness, The PIMCO Ring of Fire / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
Good golly what a mess the World is!
You know it's bad when the US begins to look responsible compared to other World governments but even Alan Greenspan is now calling for an end to the Bush Tax cuts before they cost us another $3.6Tn over the next decade(and that's assuming no inflation and steady earnings) and we have Paul Ryan and the President calling for Trillions more in deficit reduction so I guess we SOUND serious about cutting our deficit and WE SHOULD BE because the IMF this week said the U.S. budget deficit was on course to hit 10.8 percent of nation's economic output this year, tying with Ireland for the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio among advanced economies.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stock Monday Mayhem, Panic Selling Has Set In! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In overnight and pre-market trading the US Dollar posted a strong rally which in turn caused a sharp selloff in the equities market. The market is currently down 1.6 – 2.3% depending on the index traders are following.
Here is what I see on the charts going forward a few days.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
What Slow Economic Growth and High Inflation Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: With slow economic growth and high inflation looming on the economic horizon, investors turn to earnings reports for a clue as to whether their favorite companies can handle what's ahead.
First-quarter earnings season started with a bang this week with reports from major technology, basic materials and financial companies that mostly underwhelmed the crowd. The major averages closed the week right about where they started after rallying from a sizeable dip in the middle.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stocks Don't Follow the Dollar Index So Hold On! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
So far in 2011 the equities market has made some sizable whip saw type moves that even veteran traders have had difficulty being on the right side of the price action. The year started out with equities being very overbought and extended making is virtually impossible for a low risk trader to buy on pullbacks. This was primarily due to the fact that there were no real pullbacks other than for a day or two which was immediately followed by prices continuing to grind higher.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stock Market May Require Further Consolidation Before Breaking to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend – The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a bull market. Cycles and P&F projections point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Sunday, April 17, 2011
S&P500, Crude Oil, and Gold Reliant on U.S. Dollar Price Action / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“The week that was” left many investors running for the exits on Monday and Tuesday as prices in the equity, energy, and precious metals markets plunged. The U.S. Dollar index futures tried to work their way out of a descending channel, but came up unsuccessful. The U.S. Dollar index rallied in several morning sessions, but usually was met with heavy selling later in the day which either muted gains or pushed the dollar index lower. The other notable development this week was some Fed drivel which solidified the Central Bank’s continued efforts to devalue the U.S. currency and hold short term interest rates hostage. In addition, it seems more likely with every press release from a Fed Governor that Quantitative Easing II will expire in June and Quantitative Easing III will not be pursued unless economic conditions worsen.
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Sunday, April 17, 2011
Stock Market Still In The Handle... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The question is will it stay that way. The Nasdaq has made a clear handle bottom at yesterday's gap down low reversal at 2733. The top is clear at 2815. An 82-point range which makes sense. Three percent gives the market plenty of room to drive everyone nuts. Just enough room to head fake everyone on an almost daily basis. Handles are classic for making you think one thing is happening, but it doesn't. You can be so sure about what's next only to discover you were totally wrong about your thinking process. The more you play in a handle the more you lose. Very few can do it just right. The deeper problem with handles is that you never know just how long they are going to last. There is no historical reference for how long it will drag on. It could be just a few weeks, such as we have just experienced, or it can be months, sometimes many many months. No fun for sure.
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Saturday, April 16, 2011
Stock Market Uptrend Resuming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Last week the world indices did quite well while the US struggled. This week the US held its own while the world indices were solidly in the red. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Asian indices were -1.0%, Europe dropped 1.6%, the Commodity equity group lost 3.4%, and the DJ World was -1.1%. Bonds were +1.2%, Crude lost 2.8%, Gold added 0.8% and the USD was flat.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Fed Reckoning Day Realities for Investor Pain and Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“In this light, the Fed’s action is especially meretricious. If it weren’t in such a hurry to juice the stock market and thereby keep the illusion of recovery going, it might have considered extending the regulatory sequester on bank capital for a few more quarters or even years thereby preserving a shield for the taxpayers until it has been demonstrated by the passage of time, not by the passing of phony stress tests, that the American banking system is truly out of the woods.
Friday, April 15, 2011
SPX Stock Market Correction Looms, Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Stock bull markets don’t rally higher in a nice linear fashion. Their advance is much more chaotic, flowing and ebbing. Two steps forward are inevitably followed by one step back. Today the US stock markets, despite their recent selloff in early March, still look to be in this correction mode. These ebbings present stock traders with awesome buying opportunities, the best ever seen within ongoing bulls.
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