Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Goldman Sachs Delusional World View, Pulling on Global Threads and the SEP / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
"We think the global (and overall European) outlook remains robust."
That’s the word from Goldman Sachs’ Erik Nielson this weekend, who also observes that he was "Possibly deluded by the wonderful vibrancy of California." Deluded indeed seems to be an excellent choice of words with a new report out showing that California leads the nation in a local government pension crisis that has a $3.5Tn hole to fill and will not be sufficient to pay benefits through 2020 along with 5 other states while another 20 states will run out of funding by 2025. Is Nielson just saying anything to herd more suckers into the market by telling the sidelined cash that it’s safe to go back in the water or is he cleverly employing an SEP Field to bamboozle the public?
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
US Treasury Yield Determines Duration Sweet Spot for US Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Over the last quarters, stocks predominantly reacted to monetary policy as is clearly visible in the graph below.
Read the lips of Bernanke and make money. This is nothing new, as an old maxim goes: “Give me the sign of monetary policy (plus for monetary expansion etc.) and I will tell you what the stock markets’ direction will be.”.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
Ben Bernanke's Money Pump to Create New Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This morning global markets are mixed and US futures are down a few ticks before the open. Overnight US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that he was ready to buy up more bonds and he will undoubtedly formally announce such a decision at the next FOMC meeting next week on December 14th. As soon as he said this Asian markets ticked up a few points in hope that some of the hot money he creates will flow overseas to emerging markets. It probably will.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
Big Banks Are Stifling Economic Growth & Taxing Consumers / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
Have you noticed the price of oil lately? It’s $90 a barrel in a dismal economy with unemployment hovering around 10%. The problem with Fed chairman Bernanke`s latest QE 2 initiative is that he has just given more access of cheap money to the big banks.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
How to Play Stock Market Uncertainty With an Options Straddle / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants
Larry D. Spears writes: It's often said that the only thing certain in the stock market is uncertainty - and that's certainly been the case this fall.
Since 1950, September has consistently been the worst month for stock performance and October is most notable for the market crashes it has seen - 1929 and 1987, to name two.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
This Stocks Bull Market Has Legs, Bargain Prices Mean Buy Now / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks swept higher over the past week as investors swooped in to pick up bargains lying on the stock exchange floors. It did not matter if they were in Asia, Europe or the United States. If they were down 10% or more in the past month, they were vacuumed up.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
Stocks Rally Back From the Brink / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As the Irish economy came close to meltdown and the World held its breath to see if the Euro zone would put together a timely rescue big enough to satisfy markets, equity markets sold off. Indeed, even after the rescue deal was announced markets remained nervous.
The fear was that Ireland was just another domino in a line ready to fall with traders switching their attention from one weak peripheral economy to another. The first to require a rescue was of course Greece and although Ireland adopted a severe austerity program earlier in the year, it wasn’t enough.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
Stock Market Heading for Mid to Late December Intermediate Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the secular bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, equity markets began an upward corrective move in the form of a mini bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend into 2011.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
Interest Rate Yields the Dominant Market Theme for 2011 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
After the bottom of the 4-year cycle in September the stock market began what has been described, in the words of Samuel J. Kress, “the final cyclical bull market of the post-World War 2 expansionary era.” The months ahead could well be the last chance for individuals to prepare for the coming “winter” phase of the deflationary 60-year cycle which enters its final “hard down” phase in 2012 and bottoms in 2014.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 05, 2010
The Next Market Disaster, EWT Overview of the Markets and Economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
An exclusive only for Market Oracle readers, FREE access to Robert Prechter's recent 10 Page The Elliott Wave Theorist Letter:
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Sunday, December 05, 2010
Cashing Out of the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In the last newsletter, I indicated that I was cashing out many of my positions and taking profits “in anticipation of a flat to down US market until the end of December. I have continued with this process and not been particularly disappointed. While Investors Business Daily declared last week that the upward trend of the market has resumed, I still see it in a largely sideways pattern. Since October 25, the S&P 500 index, as measured by the exchange traded fund SPY, has gone from about 118 to 122 back down to 118 and back up to a little more than 122. BFD. It's just not worth the risk to be in the market.
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Sunday, December 05, 2010
Stock Market Cycles, Virtuous Circles and Trillions of Dollars / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
The op-ed in the Washington Post a few weeks back by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke contained a few interesting revelations. Bernanke came clean on what he is doing, or at least trying to do with the trillions of dollars he has been passing out to the world’s needy that show up with tin cup in hand on the steps of the Federal Reserve System. Of course, Uncle Sam is the neediest of them all. The job description for the Federal Reserve includes delivering both 1) price stability and 2) maximum employment. Based on this dual mandate, Bernanke appears to have concluded that the Federal Reserve’s current priority is to use quantitative easing to stamp out business and stock market cycles.
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Saturday, December 04, 2010
Stock Market Starts December With a Strong Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This week the market started off the month of December with a strong rally. This was very similar to the strong rallies that started in the month of July (Intermediate wave one), and the month of September (Intermediate wave three) of this multi-month uptrend. Economic reports were more mixed this week than what we have been observing in recent weeks.
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Saturday, December 04, 2010
Stock Market Holds Up Despite Terrible Jobs Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
You have to scratch your head in disbelief. How can this market hold up with such a terrible Jobs Report? The jobs created were basically 100,000 below expectations, and the unemployment level ran up to 9.8% when 9.6% was expected. The futures reversed only 75 points lower on the Dow, which to me, was a miracle unto itself. I thought a 300-point reversal was imminent. With the market hanging in there very well up to this report, it seemed that a major disappointment was the tonic the bears needed. The market refused to cave in. The gap down was quickly stabilized with the market slowly working its way back in to the green as the day rolled on, especially late in the day as the dollar fell hard late. A real surprise across the board, but the market is focused on other things at this point and thinks it sees good news at the end of the tunnel.
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Saturday, December 04, 2010
Stocks, Gold, and Oil Crude Remain Range Bound / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Pre-Market trading on Friday morning was wild as the S&P 500 did not react well to the latest jobs report. Sellers stepped in and pushed down the e-mini contract by over 10 points in less than 15 minutes which is a pretty drastic move. It is critical to note that before the jobs announcement, the S&P 500 had put in a new high in the pre-market drawing in bulls and leaving many of them trapped. Today's price action will be interesting as Fridays are usually pretty quiet.
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Saturday, December 04, 2010
Unemployment Hits 9.8%, America’s Love Affair With Stocks May be Over… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
The unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (+39,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs over the month, while employment fell in retail trade. Employment in most major industries changed little in November.
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force remained at 17% in November.
Saturday, December 04, 2010
An Encouraging Week For Stock Market Investors! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
After a strong rally in September and October, the stock market topped out short-term four weeks ago, with the Dow then declining 4% in just seven days.
In the process it broke below key short-term support levels that market technicians watch, and entered a very narrow sideways trading range, locked between 11,000 on the downside and 11,200 on the upside that it couldn’t seem to break out of in either direction.
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Saturday, December 04, 2010
Investor Profit Lessons from The Ongoing Europe, USA Debt Crises / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
“The money struggle is the struggle against totalitarianism”
“It may be a bit hypocritical for an American to wonder why Europeans are giving up their democracy, their countries, their money, and their very lives to an unelected, overweening, bank-controlled bureaucracy. After all, that already has happened in the United States. But at least there are powerful stirrings against the new European totalitarianism, perhaps best articulated today by Nigel Farage, a member of the European Parliament from southeast England and leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party.
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Friday, December 03, 2010
How to Know if Stock Market Bulls or Bears are in Control / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
There are different ways of measuring what is happening in the markets.
Indexes measure the market, but some indexes are price weighted, some are market value-weighted or market share-weighted, and some are float weighted. It is sometimes why, a few stocks can have an over exaggerated impact on the movement of an index.
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Friday, December 03, 2010
How Sidestep Europe's Debt Crisis and Profit from the EU's Economic Muscle / Stock-Markets / Investing 2011
Martin Hutchinson writes : The $100 billion-plus bailout of Ireland, which followed the $100 billion-plus bailout of Greece, seems at first to validate the standard U.S. view of Europe - that it's a bunch of backward, socialist countries that will be washed away by the tide of history.
According to this view, one European country after another will succumb to the "Greek disease," until the continent ultimately runs out of bailout money.
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