Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, October 03, 2009
Financial Markets and World Economy Fingers of Instability / Stock-Markets / Economic Theory
Fingers of Instability
Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles
Stability Leads to Instability
A Stable Disequilibrium
3 Billion and Counting
"To trace something unknown back to something known is alleviating, soothing, gratifying and gives moreover a feeling of power. Danger, disquiet, anxiety attend the unknown - the first instinct is to eliminate these distressing states. First principle: any explanation is better than none... The cause-creating drive is thus conditioned and excited by the feeling of fear ..." Friedrich Nietzsche
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Sock Market Breaks Support on 20Day Exponential Moving Averages / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
We can remember the beginning of October as the time when the major indexes across the board lost their 20-day exponential moving averages. The market had traded above them for many months. So long, in fact, that they were able to cross over the 50-day exponential averages, which is quite bullish.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
A Jobless Economic Recovery or Something Else? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
U.S. job losses accelerated last month and the unemployment rate climbed to the highest level since 1983, stark reminders of how the worst financial crisis in a generation may undermine consumer spending and economic growth in the months ahead.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Another October Stock Market Surprise? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
I have been asked countless times in the past month why it is that share markets seem to have a difficult time navigating the autumn months. Obviously, there is a healthy amount of fear regarding the next 29 days, as the memories of last year are still firmly intact. Yesterday’s 203-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has done nothing more than rekindle those sour memories. While the question ‘Why October?’ is largely rhetorical in nature, we can certainly take a look at history for some potential causes for the blowups.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Stock Market Correction Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Mike Burnick writes: As the Director of Research and Client Communications at Weiss Capital Managemen, I write a weekly e-newsletter, Weiss Advice. Recently, I cautioned our readers that the month of September is historically one of the cruelest for stock market investors. However, this year, the market sailed higher in September, posting its seventh-straight monthly gain since March.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
CAUTION: Stock Market Crash /Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants’ caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Has the Six Month Stock Market Rally Ended? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The G-20 Pittsburg Summit ended last Friday. Their official statements made for some novel and interesting reading.
We were informed that the group could by working together could manage a transition to a more balanced pattern of global growth. Tending to domestic demand as private savings increase. It is obvious to us this cannot work. We are seeing increased savings and decreased consumption. The IMF as well agrees with these policies. We cannot recall that the IMF has made a correct decision over the past 50 years. The group gushed forth the same platitudes we’ve heard for years. The shared understanding and deepened dialogue that produces no solutions, only more power and wealth for the entrenched elite.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Stock Market Collapses Through Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
1046, 2090 and 9648 on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow respectively. Those are the magical 20-day exponential moving averages that all went down today without a fight. The market didn't even have to gap below those levels to get the job done. Normally, important levels of support go away through morning gaps but today we saw the bears take control and just destroy those 20-day exponential moving averages.
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Credit and Credibility Chapter 2 Footnotes / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Credit and Credability Chapter 2 Footnotes Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 02, 2009
Credit Crisis Explained- Credit and Credibility / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Chapter 2: “Nobody’s right, when everybody’s wrong”
Chapter 1 Here : “Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!”
Arguably more effective than the military adventurism that dominates the headlines, what amounts to American cultural imperialism has subtly seduced large swathes of the world, and it has not been limited simply to a taste for fast food, film, and fashion. The far more addictive aspect has been the successful overseas marketing of the “debt culture” via the financial innovation associated with the securitization (derivative) markets, which at $27 trillion has constituted the US’ largest export of the 21st century. This is the realm of the money center banks. 1
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Friday, October 02, 2009
Stocks and Commodities 4th Quarter Investment Thoughts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
I would like to start by making a comment on my last article. Globally, there are values in financial stocks in countries not hit as hard as the US and Europe. My bearish stance is US based, not global.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Stock Market Collapsing Into the Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It was an extremely negative session for the indices as they dropped from the get-go, fell sharply all morning, stabilized around mid-day, tried to rally back mid-afternoon but failed at resistance, and then rolled over, especially in the last 10 minutes when they collapsed into the close.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
U.S. Financial System Systemic Failure Approaches / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Debate stirs on whether the financial structure of the USEconomy is broken irreparably. Debate stirs on whether actions taken in the last year or two have put the nation on a path that can even achieve stability, let alone recovery. Debate stirs on whether a pernicious and not so secret syndicate has taken control of the USGovt financial ministries, let alone be removed. Debate stirs on whether lack of US Federal Reserve audits and disclosure of their accounting is integral to sustaining the syndicate control as well as its probable egregious fraud. Debate stirs whether the nationalizations have actually enabled adoption of wrecked assets, have concealed executive ransacking, and have buried massive counterfeit of bonds.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Deferring Financial Disaster / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Those who read the contrarian and alternative financial commentators may well be forgiven for wondering why the financial doomsday oft predicted hasn’t quite materialized. The financial crisis heralded by the crash in October 2008, preceded by the demise of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, among others, by all accounts was the tip of the iceberg and the advent of the Great Depression of our age.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Stock Market May Not Correct Until 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Common sense and prudence say stocks must experience a significant correction soon. Unfortunately, waiting for a correction to participate in the current stock rally has proved highly frustrating for many market participants. While it may not be what investors sitting on large cash positions want to hear, market history says a significant correction in stocks may not occur until 2010.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Stock Market Trading Back and Forth, Unwinding Nasty Divergences / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
That's all we're doing while trying to unwind those daily charts along with those nasty negative divergences. We go up. We go down. We go back up and then back down all in the same day. Tremendous whipsaw in wide and loose triangles as the bulls and bears fight it out between 1045/1080.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Stock Market Investors Don’t Fight the Fed / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates
Martin Zweig, in his investment book “Winning on Wall Street” points out investors should not “fight the Fed”. In his book, he discusses the relationship between the discount rate and the performance of the US stock market. As he showed, most of the time, a rise in the discount rate leads to a lower average share prices. A drop in the discount rate leads to higher average share prices. Another concept called “two tumbles and a jump” indicates that two decreases in the discount rate within a six-month period lead to a jump up in the stock market. On the other hand, one or two rate increases within a 6-month period are moderately bearish for stocks. Three or more rate increases are extremely bearish.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Financial Markets Driven by Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
I can’t think of a better way to describe the last 2 years than as times of great uncertainty. Not only did we have two near catastrophic banking failures worldwide, but we also have the ever present Iran Israel nuclear contention. The USD held reasonably well during this period, although it’s weaker. In any case, gold has held up amazingly well over the period of the last two years too, in fact is at highs. What else is except US T bonds?
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Volatile Stock Market Session Ends Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets ended mixed but it was a wild ride, as volatile swings both ways whipped traders around.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Predicting the Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Two years ago in The Return of Capital, Not The Return on Capital, we stated: "...as an indicator of a major trend reversal, 'Tens of thousands' of Japanese homemaker-traders are leveraging their bets on a fall in the yen. As global margin calls come in, investors will unwind their positions, and the homemaker-traders will find that they were the last ones to the party. We expect the Yen to appreciate for the long term, causing major pain for these novice investors." The weekly chart below of the Japanese Yen shows just how wrong those homemaker-traders have been.
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