Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

US Stock Market, Big Picture View / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…

S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support.  Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap.  We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Stock Buybacks Main Force Driving Bull Market; Rewards Investors and Starves Innovation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

"All the power that we exercise over others depends on the power we exercise over ourselves." ~ Cotvos

Share buybacks are nothing new; they have been around for decades, and in most cases, one would view this type of action under a favourable light. However, for the past few years, companies have used this technique as a ploy to hide stagnating earnings or even falling profits. The idea is very simple, and the rewards are lucrative as most corporate officers have incentive-based rewards. Corporations borrow money for next to nothing and then use this to purchase huge blocks of shares; the number of outstanding shares drops and the EPS magically rises. Each year for the past six years the amount of money allocated towards share buybacks has soared, because as we stated, this is the fastest way to increase EPS without doing a single thing magically.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

SPX Gapping Down... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is substantially down, lower than Tuesday’s low at 2128.84. It appears that, should the market open at this level, it may gap down beneath the 2-hour Cycle Bottom at 2125.33. A systemic unwinding may not stop at the September 12 low at 2119.12.

ZeroHedge reports, “Remember when two weeks ago the China Beige Book warned that "It’s A Lot More Negative Than People Think" in the world's second biggest economy? Well after months of complacency about the Chinese economy and financial risks emanating from its $35 trillion financial sector, overnight the world got a rude awakening when China export figures tumbled, signalling a deeper slowdown than many anticipated just as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates.”

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Stock Market Negative Expectations Following Tuesday's Decline - New Downtrend Or Just Consolidation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Very Negative, Critical Day for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a very negative session today. The day started out with gap downs, they went down all day, and only in the last hour they bounced back to pare back the gains.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 200.38 at 18,128.66. The S&P 500 was down 26.93 at 2136.73. The Nasdaq 100 was down 71.85 at 4821.91.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Stock Market Lost in Translation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

A Hybrid Lindsay high is expected late this week, or early next, but that doesn't mean equities are expected to necessarily trend upward all week. Regardless, readers cannot afford to become lost in the semantics. Equities still appear to be looking into an abyss which will not bottom until closer to the final week of October.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Stock Market Head & Shoulders Pattern Activated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation appears to have been crossed. That action activates the formation with a minimum target of 2044.43. Chances of a bounce back above the neckline are normally slim to none. Should we close beneath it, we may see a massive gap down tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Confirmed Stock Market Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has crossed beneath the bottom trendline of the Triangle formation. This confirms the trend change in SPX.

ZeroHedge points out that the Risk Parity trade is deleveraging this morning, causing the breakdown. This practice is akin to the “portfolio insurance” used up to the crash of 1987, but with leverage, since yields are so low.

This may be a fast-developing situation, as each level of breakdown instigates more selling. There is a vicious feedback loop that may be unstoppable until selling is exhausted. That may take SPX beneath the February 12 low at 1810.10.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

The US Needs a Robust Infrastructure Spending Program / Stock-Markets / Infrastructure

By: John_Mauldin

I’ve been quite hard on central bank leaders lately, and rightly so. But once in a while, a central banker says something that makes sense. When it happens, I want to be fair and highlight it.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave an unusually coherent Sept. 20 speech called Living for Lower with Longer. The “lower” refers to lower interest rates. He discussed some of the broader factors contributing to the extended low-rate environment.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Stock Market Debate Rally...Still Nowhere....Still Bullish.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

Last night we had the second debate between Clinton and Trump. The market wants the status quo because if Trump wins, he said he would remove fed Yellen. That's not what this stock market wants. It wants Yellen since she, and she alone, is responsible for quite a bit of the wealth most have in stock market gains over the past many years. If she goes away, it is quite likely rates will go up quite fast and kill the market. The market wants a democrat since this will make certain that Yellen will remain in office, and, thus, the world of low rates and, therefore, more Disneyland is possible.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Stock Market Downside Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The stock market rallied on Monday out of the 8 TD low on Friday.  The 8 TD low is acting more like a 4 TD low.  The dominant has once again become sub-dominant. The market looks as though it wants to curl over this week into Thursday.  Downside possibilities are the low to mid 2130’s to as low as the 2102/07 area SPX.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Stock Market Shades of August 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

You may recall that we saw a Triangle formation going into the August 2015 flash crash decline. This time it’s capped by an Orthodox Broadening Top formation that has the potential for a much larger decline.

In addition, the time from the top of Wave A to today’s top is exactly 12.9 market days. From the 2187.87 high to the 2179.99 high was 8.6 market days. The time from the August 15 high at 2193.01 to the high at 2187.87 was 17.2 market days.

Monday, October 10, 2016

No Clear Short-Term Direction, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, October 10, 2016

Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Ken_Ticehurst

We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.

Monday, October 10, 2016

NFP, Wikileaks, falling momentum, slipping real estate…recipe for correction? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Mesh

The rally in equities resumed for the UK's FTSE and three of the four Eastern indexes on our world watch list (the Shanghai Composite spent the week on holiday celebrating Chinese National Day). Japan's Nikkei was the top week-over-week performer, up 2.49% with Hong Kong's Hang Seng close behind at 2.38%. The US's S&P 500 was the laggard, down 0.67%, which snapped a three-week advance.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Stock Market Pressure Mounting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Stock Market Down Monday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The SPX could take a plunge Monday, but the set up is there for a nice rebound into October 14th.  I think we finally get my False Break of the Rising Wedge and the rebound that takes us above 2200 SPX. October 14th should be the high for the year.

GDX and the gold complex are due for a nice rebound rally, but much damage has been done.  A move back into the mid 26.00 area for GDX is the minimum expectation for an October 18 top.  It may take a couple of more days to get kick started as the buyers are hesitant and selling into rallies. 

Monday, October 10, 2016

Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity / Stock-Markets / Technology

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst most readership interest is in my regular stock market in-depth analysis that tend to conclude in detailed trend forecast usually covering at least the next 2-3 months and where possible much longer. However, whilst it is useful to know the probable short-term direction of the stock market for trading, accumulation (investing) and distribution (banking profits) purposes, but frankly, I think most people get overly carried away if not obsessed with seeking out short-term market direction.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

I used to wonder how these massive World Wars happened.

World War I, for instance.  The “official” story for why it happened makes absolutely no sense.  The mainstream reason for the war was because some Archduke from Austria got killed.

Then, like some bizarre drunken bar fight, tens of millions of people from dozens of different countries all were wounded or injured in the ensuing four years.

Saturday, October 08, 2016

End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2168. After a gap down opening on Monday the market declined to SPX 2144 by Tuesday. A gap up opening on Wednesday carried the market to SPX 2164. Then a pullback on Thursday to SPX 2150 was followed by a rally into Friday to SPX 2166. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2145, only to end the week at SPX 2154. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Economic reports for the week were again mixed. On the downtick: construction spending, wholesale inventories, the Q3 GDP estimate, the ADP, plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, auto sales, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the PPI and Retail sales. Best to your week!