Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2168. After a gap down opening on Monday the market declined to SPX 2144 by Tuesday. A gap up opening on Wednesday carried the market to SPX 2164. Then a pullback on Thursday to SPX 2150 was followed by a rally into Friday to SPX 2166. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2145, only to end the week at SPX 2154. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Economic reports for the week were again mixed. On the downtick: construction spending, wholesale inventories, the Q3 GDP estimate, the ADP, plus the trade deficit and unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, auto sales, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the PPI and Retail sales. Best to your week!
Saturday, October 08, 2016
The US Economy and Stock Market are in Trouble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Chapman
The US economy may be approaching its 28th consecutive quarter of growth from the end of the 2008-2009 recession, but all is not as it seems. Shadow Stats www.shadowstats.com shows that, because of changes to the way GDP is calculated dating back to the 1980s, the US economy, instead of growing since 2000, has largely been trapped in a series of rolling recessions. According to Shadow Stats, the US economy is in its 45th consecutive quarter of negative growth. Stagnant income growth largely benefitting the top 20% of the working population; the collapsing labour force participation rate that results in a gross understatement of the real unemployment rate; a large army of part-time workers; many not counted as a part of the labour force just because they have been out of work a year or longer and are no longer counted; half the working population earning less than $30,000 annually; millennials burdened with record student loans and unable to form households as they cannot find the jobs; and a retiring baby boomer workforce, many of them unprepared for retirement, are just some of the reasons the US economy continues to underperform even as officialdom touts growth.
Friday, October 07, 2016
WARNING: the Markets Might Crash HERE AND NOW / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Stock investing is ultimately based on risk.
The global risk-free rate is the Us 10-Year Treasury. Again, this is the “risk-free” rate for the world. Stocks trade relative to this rate.
The ENTIRE move in the market from the early 2016 lows was predicated on bon yields falling (or bond prices rising). As this occurred, risk became cheaper, forcing stocks higher.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Pound Sterling Flash Crashes. Is the SPX Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Last night’s flash crash in the Pound Sterling should not take us by surprise. It was merely fulfilling its Bearish Pennant objectives. In addition, it was within a Wave 3 of (3) scenario, which would tell us that there would be large gaps in trading as it descends.
ZeroHedge reports, “U.S. equity index futures fell, with European, Asian stocks also declining before the September payrolls data, following the stunning 2-minute "flash crash" meltdown in sterling which plunged as much as 6.1%, the most since Brexit and is set for its biggest weekly loss since 2009.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Market Crash Sound More like Stock Market Trash when you listen to Drs of Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
A small mind is obstinate. A great mind can lead and be led. Alexander CannonEvery few months there is some nonsensical headline that is passed off as news when it should be relegated to the rubbish bin of time. Sometimes it is high oil price that is not good for the market, and then on other occasions, we hear that low oil prices are not good. Then you have the Dance with the Fed and interest rates, which sounds more like a silly girl peeling petals from a flower and murmuring “he loves me, or he loves me not”. If you go back and start from 2006 for example, you will notice that with the passage of each year the headlines are bombastic in nature. However, the outcome is always the same, the masses panic and the smart money comes and laps up all the stocks being sold for next to nothing.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Buybacks Fueling the Stock Market? By How Much? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here's the question of the day: are corporate stock buybacks fueling the stock market?
Let's look at a couple of charts and a news report to help determine the answer.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Wall Street Earnings Recession is no cause for Worry; Stock Market Bull has been ignoring it. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Irony is the form of paradox. Paradox is what is good and great at the same time.Friedrich SchlegelWe could sum it up in two words as to why earnings recession was, is and will be a non-event; Hot Money. However, for some strange reason when it comes to the markets individuals happen to love long explanations even though in most cases the long answers reveal a lot less than the short ones do. So let’s take a look at some of these meaningless statistics.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Stocks Extend Their Fluctuations, Topping Pattern Or Just Consolidation Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, October 06, 2016
Will the Stocks Bull Market Remain Intact in 2017? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Clif_Droke
The question confronting investors right now is whether the lateral trading range in the major indices represents consolidation of the long-term uptrend, which precedes an eventual upside breakout from the range? Or does it represent distribution (i.e. selling) which precedes an eventual breakdown of the trend?
Bulls and bears have assembled evidence to support their respective take on this conundrum, but the most basic and useful evidence suggests the first outcome, namely an eventual upside resolution. Let’s examine the evidence in support of this conclusion.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Stock Market Positive Session with Good Technicals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had another wild session, first gapping up and running to retest the highs, unable to get there, and by midday hit their peak on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 did make a higher high in the afternoon, unconfirmed by the Nasdaq 100. That caused a negative divergence, which sold them off in the last hour.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 112.58 at 18,281.03, 34 points off its high. The S&P 500 was up 9.24 at 2159.73, 4 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 18.28 at 4877.75, 14 points off its high.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
TNX, USD and SPX Meet their Respective Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Bond yields spiked this morning in a retracement of the decline from the September 13 high in an 89.5% retracement to the 2-hour Cycle Top.
ZeroHedge comments, “"Soft" survey data from ISM appears to have trumped "hard" data from construction spending and factory orders, juicing expectations for a rate-hike in November to around 30% - the highest since The Fed began its so-called normalization cycle. The USD Index and bond yields are jumping on the news, stocks are unclear, and silver and gold are slipping further.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Stock Market Season of Falling Prices and Percent Index Proves It! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It’s a knows fact that Sept and October are typically weak times for US stocks. Going back 37 years shows us the tendency for investors to sell and rebalance their portfolios to try and perform better during the final quarter.
But that’s not really the point of this article. The chart below shows a comparison between the SP500 bullish percent index and the SP500 index.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
Stock Market Indices Has Rough Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a rough session. After a gap up and then a move up to resistance, the indices were unable to get much further than that. They had a selloff, a very sharp snapback, but again couldn’t get through the highs, and then started to decline in a distinct down-channel all day. Only in the last hour did they snap back off the lows, but S&P 500 violated key support by a couple points, before the rally. We’ll just have to see whether they were able to hold the fort right here, or going to make lower lows.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2016
USD, Gold and USB are testing their Outer Limits / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
USD came within a hair’s breadth of the upper Broadening Wedge trendline at 96.50 this morning, but now is beginning to sell off after reaching 96.39. Considering the corrective nature of the move, I did not expect the trendline to be broken. Nonetheless, I had monitored it for any unexpected outcome. A decline today beneath 95.26 may create a Bearish Engulfing Candle, which is a strong reversal pattern.
The moves being made here may have a pronounced effect on various markets, which we will discuss further down the page. The main effect of a declining USD may be the withdrawal of foreign investors from risk markets.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Stock Market September 30- October 3 High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
The Hybrid Lindsay model points to a high early this week (if not last Friday). While there are other highs and lows scheduled, the next important low is due late this month and getting there should be quite a “ride” if the Three Peaks/Domed House pattern is correct.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Deutsche Bank - The Next Financial Crisis Will Come from Europe! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
A financial system stability assessment report, from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on one bank in Europe identified Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), as the TOP bank that poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system. Systemic risk was identified as a major contributing factor in the ‘financial crisis’ of 2008. This is essentially the risk of contagion by the failure of one firm leading to failures throughout its’ industry.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Fed Chair Yellen’s Plan B: “Intervene Directly” in Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: MoneyMetals
By Stefan Gleason : October could see a ramping up of volatility across all asset markets. The month is notorious on Wall Street for the 1987 stock market crash. Fall crashes also occurred in 2002 and 2008.
Are we due for another one? Perhaps. Some analysts think it will come after the election. Others think the stock market will stay elevated until the Federal Reserve raises rates.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Deutsche Bank Could Be the Demise of Germany / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Harry_Dent
The first bad news broke following the third quarter of 2015. Deutsche Bank reported a loss of $7 billion. The news just keeps coming with low or negative earnings thanks to bad loans in Germany and abroad.In my February 19, 2016 edition of The Leading Edge, I issued a clear and stern warning about Deutsche Bank and about a second banking crisis looming. I explicitly said…
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Could a S&P500 Stock Market Flash Crash be Round the Corner? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: John_Mesh
There has been general speculation among the trading community recently about the possibiity of a flash crash of the types in 1988. In our morning meeting, we looked at some triggers which can potentially cause a major correction. We will look at if there is any real posibility. As many of you know, we do not like to just talk some nonsense about gold and Silver being precious metals and S&P500 as worthless papers and hence S&P 500 should be trading at under 10 and gold to be at 10,000. That kind of talk we leave to the uninformed punters of the kind we find at various bearish sites. MESH framework is a statistical tool which analyses various trading instruments for trading opportunities. Here we will look at the posibility of a major risk aversion this month.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Remember how BrExit was supposed to trigger a stock market crash, collapse, bear market, with the mainstream press's panic reporting Brexit morning (June 24th) following the FTSE's early morning 5% mark down in the wake of the UK voting to LEAVE the EU.