Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Stock Market Make or Break, Is the US Heading Towards Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Puru_Saxena
The global economy is slowing down rapidly and it is conceivable that the developed world may face a recession next year. Already, the Japanese economy is contracting and even Europe is barely growing. Across the pond, the US is still muddling through but the leading economic indicators and all the major Fed regional activity surveys (Figure 1) are suggesting economic weakness ahead.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Inspiration from the World of Sports for Sucessful Investing / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
By: John_Mauldin
One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly.
I have never sent his letter to you as an Outside the Box, as the copies I get are clearly watermarked and copyrighted. So I was surprised and delighted to learn that the letter is free when I listened to a speech by Howard in which he encouraged everyone to get it. Unlike another hundred-billion-dollar hedge fund company that shall go unnamed, Oaktree evidently thinks that brilliance should be shared.
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Friday, November 13, 2015
US Stock Market: Anatomy of a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over the last week we (NFTRH) have used market sentiment indicators and index charts to gauge the prospects of finding a high on the post-September relief ‘bounce’ rally.
During August and September market sentiment had become brutally over bearish and this was very dangerous from the bears’ perspective. We set upside bounce targets for the SPX at 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2100. The first three were resistance levels (broken support) and the last was the general measurement of the ‘W’ bottom that formed in August and September. With the extremes in bearish sentiment, it was not so surprising that SPX climbed all the way to just above 2100.
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Thursday, November 12, 2015
Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
My start this morning was delayed due to a late work night and early morning dentist’s appointment. I have more activities planned for the day, so my reportage may be spotty.
However, there is good news for our bearish positions this morning. SPX broke down as anticipated with a 2.5 point gap which suggests that selling pressure overwhelmed the always bullish HFTs this morning.
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Thursday, November 12, 2015
Stock Market Very Negative Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a volatile session today. They popped at the opening, 3-wave, corrective pullback ensued, then they had a very strong rally midday that led to the session highs just under 4680 Nasdaq 100, and 2987 S&P 500. They came down in a 3-wave decline near the close, and then rolled over into the close to cement the negative close for the day.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Global Stocks Bull Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Donald_W_Dony
Strong bull markets normally have a broad participation or breadth base. When that breadth starts to narrow, the short-term outlook for a continuation of the upward trend comes into question.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Stock Market Trying To Unwind.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
would allow for another move higher once the stochastic's and MACD have moved low enough. Nothing impulsive as the market sells, which is key to understanding what type of selling is taking place. Whether it's truly bearish selling or the type of selling that will allow for the markets to try higher once again in time. So far the bulls have to like the process, but it shouldn't be over quite yet. While we can still rally some, the process of moving lower should still have some decent energy left.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
SPX is Challenging Short-term Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX Premarket appears to be challenging Short-term resistance at 2085.85. The futures were higher, but the retracement appears to be complete and SPX is backing away from its before-hours highs. The futures often have a different shape than the cash markets, but essentially the same overriding Wave pattern. The Wave pattern appears to be in need of another probe higher.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
What is Needed for a Stocks Bear Market Scenario / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Wave (i) is jumbled and overlapping, but there are 5 clear waves. Leading Diagonal Waves may account for that. Wave (iii) is cleaner and a bit more convincing as an impulse. However, what we don’t want to see is Wave (iv) overlapping Wave (i) at 2083.74. Wave (iv appears to be an a-b-c correction. Wave a went to 2083.09, while Wave c went to 2083.67. An impulsive decline without overlapping 2083.74 with a bounce to the vicinity of Short-term resistance at 2086.85 would be needed to set up the bear market,
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Tuesday, November 10, 2015
One of the Greatest Deceptions of Our Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Harry_Dent
This has been weighing heavily on my mind lately.Recently I've discussed how politicians don't understand the economy. They don't understand innovation – the fact that it comes out of challenge, and that without occasional crisis, the economy can't rebalance and run as it should.
So it's no coincidence that the two great innovations of modern economics both emerged out of a different kind of crisis or challenge – a revolution, a challenging of the status quo.
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Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Stock Market 70 RSI Pullback For Now...No Distribution Yet.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
When markets get overbought they will ultimately need to pull back. The pullback can feel very bad since they can be intense due to the very overbought nature of all the key oscillators from RSI's to stochastic's to MACD's. When markets are strong and they get overbought, since the market behaved so well, most aren't prepared for the type of selling a simple overbought pullback can bring. Today surely didn't feel good. Nasty!
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Monday, November 09, 2015
Stock Markets Discover That Higher Interest Rates Are Bad / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
US stocks opened down hard today, in part because China released some truly horrendous trade numbers over the weekend, but also because the imminence of a US interest rate increase is starting to sink in. For anyone with rudimentary math skills, higher interest rates are a clear and present danger to what is now a variable-rate (and therefore really fragile) world.
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Monday, November 09, 2015
Stock Market Sell Signals in the Making / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is approaching its 17-day Moving Average at 2068.26. Just beneath it is the 200-day Moving Average at 2063.50. A decline beneath them would give us a sell signal (confirmed beneath 2063.50). There may be a bounce here, so be aware that SPX may pull back before making the total commitment beneath the 200-day Moving Average. Nonetheless, this appears to be a good entry point, as we will see with the next charts.
Monday, November 09, 2015
Pieces of the Puzzle Lining Up for Potential Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket appears flat as I write, while the futures are down 5 points. While I cannot explain why the difference, there is no substantial effect of one over the other at this time.
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Monday, November 09, 2015
Dow Stocks Index Soars, Doctors of Doom Wrong, What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
"As the ostrich when pursued hideth his head, but forgetteth his body; so the fears of a coward expose him to danger." ~ Akhenaton
We prepared our subscribers for the market pullback; crash if you believe the naysayers, well in advance of the event. While they chanted from the top of their lungs that the end of was close at hand, we broadcasted an opposing message. We welcomed this carnage phase and recognized for what it truly was; opportunity is knocking in disguise and refused to fall for this silly ploy. The same monotonous theme has been repeated decade after decade with the same miserable consequence, one that is bound to bring you one step closer to the dog house.
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Monday, November 09, 2015
SPX, USD and Gold Charts Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Toby_Connor
With momentum starting to diverge and stocks late in their daily cycle it's probably better to sell into a breakout above the all-time highs than buy a breakout.
Monday, November 09, 2015
It’s Now, or Never for Yellen, Impact on Gold and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
By: Bob_Kirtley
It has been seven years in the making, but now the Federal Reserve may be finally ready to lift interest rates from zero. There has been a myriad of reasons to not hike, multiple false starts and huge ongoing debates on what the right course of US monetary policy is, but from the Fed’s point of view the time is at last right to increase rates.
Yellen had said just this week that the Fed meeting in December would be live if the data supports a move, that the Fed is monitoring the data, and that the Fed thought it could be appropriate to move in December. Then, a +271k NFP print is released to all but seal the deal.
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Sunday, November 08, 2015
Fed December Interest Rate Hike Stock Market Panic Trigger For New All Time High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Flip, flop, flip, the bulk of 'market analysts' that populate the mainstream media (sales) have once more flopped in favour of a December US Fed interest rate hike with some giving the odds at 100% ! (Bill Gross), which reminds me of just a few weeks ago when analysts were typically coming out with near certain statements that stocks were now definitely in a bear market i.e. giving it a 99.7% chance ! (money morning).
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Stock Market Continued Correction Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 08, 2015
Stock Market Major Wave 4 Underway, or Underway Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2079. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2116, a new uptrend high, Tuesday afternoon. After that it pulled back for the rest of the week, hitting SPX 2084 on Friday, and closing at 2099. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.60%, and the DJ World index rose 0.10%. On the economic front positive reports out numbered negative ones. On the uptick: construction spending, auto sales, ISM services, monthly payrolls, the MMIS, the GDPn, consumer credit, plus the unemployment rates and trade balance improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, factory orders, the ADP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. After the close Friday FED governor Brainard gave this speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20151106a.htm. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Retail sales, the PPI, and Export/Import prices.